Draft Baseline Scenarios for - European...

Markus Amann, Janusz Cofala, Zbigniew Klimont, Wilfried Winiwarter, Wolfgang Schöpp, Frantisek Gyarfas, Imrich Bertok

Draft Baseline Scenariosfor

CAFE

CAFE Steering GroupBrussels, May 17-18, 2004

Integrated assessment in CAFE

Energy/agriculture projections

Environmental targets

OPTIMIZATION

Driving forces

BASELINE PROJECTION

Emission control options

Emissions Costs

Atmospheric dispersion

Health and environmental impacts

Preparation of input data

Bilateral consultationsMain issues

Energy projections:• Discrepancies of year 2000 energy statistics• Comments on PRIMES projections

– Obvious discrepancies– Differences in expectations

Emission calculations:• Review of year 2000 emission inventory• Penetration rates of control measures• Emission control potentialfor • SO2, NOx, VOC, NH3, PM10/2.5

Bilateral consultations (1)

-05 Dec 03 – 23 Mar 0422-3 Oct 03EUROPIA--430-31 Oct 03EURELECTRIC

--Y30 Mar 04 - 13 Apr 0454-5 Feb 04Spain

Y-Y19 Feb, 03 Mar - 15 Mar, 06 Apr 04

826-28 Jan 04UK

YYY29 Jan, 09 Mar - 04 Apr 04322-23 Jan 04Sweden-YY31 Mar 04 - 2-15 Apr 0458-9 Jan 04France

-YY19 Jan, 15 Feb - 02 Apr 04215-16 Dec 03Italy--1012 Dec 03ACEA

Y-Y19 Dec - 27 Feb, 07Apr 04325 Nov 03Czech Republic--Y19 Dec 03 - 23 Mar 04420-21 Nov 03Germany----114 Nov 03Hungary

Y--08 Oct 03--LatviaYY-16 Jan 04--Denmark

Agr. scen

Energy scenario

Comments PRIMES

Comments receivedNo of experts

Consultation meeting date

Country or organization

Red numbers indicate delivery after deadline

Bilateral consultations (2)

--Y22 Mar 04315 Mar 04Slovakia

---17,18 Mar 04 - 07 Apr 04217-18 Mar 04Poland

YY-24,29 Mar 04 - 01, 08 Apr 04222 Mar 04Slovenia

Y-Y16 Mar 04 - 02,08,18 Apr 04425-26 Mar 04Netherlands

10714219419 + 4

---17 Mar 04212 Mar 04Estonia

--Y24 Mar 04210 Mar 04Lithuania

-(Y)Y19,25 Mar 04 - 19 Apr 0438-9 Mar 04Finland

---38 Mar 04ESVOC

Y-Y12,19 Mar 0424-5/19 Mar 04Ireland

Y--24 Feb - 18,19 Mar, 19 Apr 041123 Feb 04Austria

-YY08 Mar - 2-13 Apr, 06 Apr 04716-17 Feb 04Belgium

YYY27 Feb, 03,05 Mar - 08 Apr 04512-13 Feb 04Portugal

Agr. . scen

Energy scenario

Comments PRIMES

Comments receivedNo of experts

Consultation meeting date

Country or organization

Red numbers indicate delivery after deadline

CAFE energy baseline projections

• Two draft baseline projections – available– include PRIMES numbers plus additional assumptions from

national submissions (e.g., share of LDTs in freight transport, fuel use by off-road vehicles and maritime activities, corrections for fuel used outside EMEP area)

• National projections - will be implemented by June– Currently available for eight countries, some of them need to

be completed or re-formatted

• Revised PRIMES projection (with climate) by June

Approach for baseline emission projections

• Match nationally reported emission inventories for 2000– Problem: for some countries important differences between

subsequent submissions (e.g., to CLRTAP, NEC, new national total different by > 10%)

– Values reported to CLRTAP plus changes documented during consultations taken into account

• Extrapolate penetration rates of control measures up to 2020– Takes international and national legislation into account– Done together with national teams to also include “current

practices”

Transport emissions - approach (1)

• Exhaust emissions – fuel use from PRIMES

• Non-exhaust emissions – veh-km (derived from fuel use)

• Turnover of fleet taken from national estimates

• National emission factors applied where available (Auto/Oil estimates modified during consultations)

• Efficiencies of EURO-stages based on Auto/Oil info plus other sources (TREMOD, Austrian model, RICARDO - for EURO 5/6)

Transport emissions - approach (2)

• Higher NOx emission factors for trucks considered (ARTEMIS Project, report by TU Graz, 2003),generates inconsistencies with some national 2000 emission inventories

• Other findings of ARTEMIS not included

• Data for off-road sources from EGTEI

• Consistency with TREMOVE not yet established

• Further calibration and updates is needed when new data become available

Next steps

End of May 2004• Deadline for further comments on emissions from MS

June 2004• Incorporate national scenarios• Settle feedbacks on emission scenarios• Revised PRIMES scenario (with climate measures)

taking into account country comments

September 2004• Presentation of final CAFE baseline scenarios• Start first set of policy scenarios

Draft baseline emission projections

Energy projections

Energy use per fuel EU-15 [PJ]

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

No further climate measures With climate measures

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Solid fuels Liquid fuels Natural gas Renewable Nuclear Difference to "no further climate measures"

Energy use per fuelNew Member States [PJ]

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Solid fuels Liquid fuels Natural gas Renewable Nuclear Difference to "no further climate measures"

Energy use per sectorEU-15 [PJ]

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Power generation Industry Households Transport Non-energy


0

20000

40000

60000

80000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Difference to "no further climate measures"

Energy use per sectorNew Member States [PJ]

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Power generation Industry Households Transport Non-energy


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Difference to "no further climate measures"

CO2 emissionsrelative to 2000!

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

2000 2010 2020 2010 2020

EU-15 NMS-10 EU-25

Agricultural projections

Animal numbers (pre-CAP reform), relative to 2000

EU-15 New Member States

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

2000 2005 2010 2015 20200%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Cattle Pigs Chicken Other animals

SO2 emissions

Comparison of 2000 SO2 inventoriesRAINS vs. national estimates

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

Austria

Belgium

Cyprus

Czech

Rep

ublic

Denmark

Estonia

Finlan

dFran

ceGerm

any

Greece

Hunga

ryIre

land

Italy

Latvi

aLit

huan

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xembo

urgMalt

aNeth

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dsPola

ndPort

ugal

Slovak

iaSlov

enia

Spain

Sweden UK

RAINS National inventory

SO2 emissions

• Measures:– Large Combustion Plant Directive– S Content of Liquid Fuels Directive – Directives on quality of petrol and diesel fuels– IPPC legislation on process sources– National legislation and national practices (if stricter)

SO2 emissions by fuelEU-15 [kt]

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

2005 2010 2015Solid fuels Liquid fuels Natural gas Process emissions "Climate bonus"

x---------------- NEC Ceiling 3850 ktx---------------


SO2 emissions by fuel New Member States [kt]

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


x---------------- NEC Ceiling 2693 ktx----------------


SO2 emissions by sector EU-15 [kt]

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

x---------------- NEC Ceiling 3850 ktx----------------

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Power generation Industry Households Transport Process emissions "Climate bonus"


SO2 emissions by sector New Member States [kt]

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


x---------------- NEC Ceiling 2693 ktx----------------


Projected SO2 emissions in 2010compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Austria

Belgium

Denmark

Finlan

dFran

ceGerm

any

Greece

Irelan

d

Italy

Luxe

mbourg

Netherl

ands

Portug

alSpa

inSwed

en UKEU-15

No further climate measures With climate measures NEC Ceiling

Projected SO2 emissions in 2010compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Cyprus

Czech

Rep

ublic

Estonia

Hunga

ry

Latvi

a

Lithu

ania

Malta

Poland

Slovak

ia

Sloven

iaTota

l NMS

No further climate With climate measures NEC

NOx emissions

Comparison of 2000 NOx inventoriesRAINS vs. national estimates

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

Austria

Belgium

Cyprus

Czech

Rep

ublic

Denmark

Estonia

Finlan

dFran

ceGerm

any

Greece

Hunga

ryIre

land

Italy

Latvi

aLit

huan

iaLu

xembo

urgMalt

aNeth

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dsPola

ndPort

ugal

Slovak

iaSlov

enia

Spain

Sweden UK


NOx emissions

Assumed measures:– LCP Directive– Auto/Oil EURO standards– Standards for motorcycles and mopeds– Legislation on non-road mobile machinery – Implementation failure of EURO-II and III for HDT– IPPC legislation on process sources– National legislation and national practices (if stricter)

NOx emissions by fuelEU-15 [kt]

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


x----------------

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

x---------------- NEC Ceiling 6519 kt


NOx emissions by fuel New Member States [kt]

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


x----------------

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

x---------------- NEC Ceiling 1800 ktNo further climate measures With climate measures

NOx emissions by sectorEU-15 [kt]

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

x---------------


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

x---------------- NEC Ceiling 6519 kt


NOx emissions by sectorNew Member States [kt]

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


x---------------- NEC Ceiling 1800 ktx----------------No further climate measures With climate measures

Projected NOx emissions in 2010compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

Austria

Belgium

Denmark

Finlan

dFran

ceGerm

any

Greece

Irelan

d

Italy

Luxe

mbourg

Netherl

ands

Portug

alSpa

inSwed

en UKEU-15


Projected NOx emissions in 2010compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Cyprus

Czech

Rep

ublic

Estonia

Hunga

ry

Latvi

a

Lithu

ania

Malta

Poland

Slovak

ia

Sloven

iaTota

l NMS


Emissions from shipping [% of land-based EU-25 emissions]

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2000 2010 2020

NOx SO2

VOC emissions

Comparison of 2000 VOC inventoriesRAINS vs. national estimates

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

Austria

Belgium

Cyprus

Czech

Rep

ublic

Denmark

Estonia

Finlan

dFran

ceGerm

any

Greece

Hunga

ryIre

land

Italy

Latvi

aLit

huan

iaLu

xembo

urgMalt

aNeth

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dsPola

ndPort

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Slovak

iaSlov

enia

Spain

Sweden UK


VOC emissions

• Assumed measures:– Stage I Directive– Directive 91/441 (carbon canisters)– Auto/Oil EURO standards– Fuel Directive (RVP of fuels)– Solvents Directive– Product Directive (paints)– National legislation, e.g., Stage II

VOC emissionsEU-15 [kt]

x--------------- NEC Ceiling 6510kt

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Stationary combustion Mobile sources Fuel extraction+distribution Industrial processes Solvents

VOC emissions New Member States [kt]

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Stationary combustion Mobile sources Fuel extraction+distribution Industrial processes Solvents

x--------------- NEC Ceiling 1640 kt

Projected VOC emissions in 2010compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

Austria

Belgium

Denmark

Finlan

dFran

ceGerm

any

Greece

Irelan

d

Italy

Luxe

mbourg

Netherl

ands

Portug

alSpa

inSwed

en UKEU-15


Projected VOC emissions in 2010compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Cyprus

Czech

Rep

ublic

Estonia

Hunga

ry

Latvi

a

Lithu

ania

Malta

Poland

Slovak

ia

Sloven

iaTota

l NMS


NH3 emissions

Comparison of 2000 NH3 inventoriesRAINS vs. national estimates

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

Austria

Belgium

Cyprus

Czech

Rep

ublic

Denmark

Estonia

Finlan

dFran

ceGerm

any

Greece

Hunga

ryIre

land

Italy

Latvi

aLit

huan

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xembo

urgMalt

aNeth

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dsPola

ndPort

ugal

Slovak

iaSlov

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Spain

Sweden UK


NH3 emissions

Assumed measures:– No EU-wide legislation– National legislations – Current practice

NH3 emissions EU-15 [kt]

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Cattle Other animals Industry Fuel combustion

x--------------- NEC Ceiling 3310 kt

NH3 emissions New Member States [kt]

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Cattle Other animals Industry Fuel combustion

x--------------- NEC Ceiling 866 kt

Projected NH3 emissions in 2010compared to NEC emission ceilings, EU-15

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Austria

Belgium

Denmark

Finlan

dFran

ceGerm

any

Greece

Irelan

d

Italy

Luxe

mbourg

Netherl

ands

Portug

alSpa

inSwed

en UKEU-15

Pre-CAP reform scenario NEC Ceiling

Projected NH3 emissions in 2010compared to NEC emission ceilings, NMS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Cyprus

Czech

Rep

ublic

Estonia

Hunga

ry

Latvi

a

Lithu

ania

Malta

Poland

Slovak

ia

Sloven

iaTota

l NMS

Pre-CAP reform NEC

PM10 emissions

Comparison of 2000 PM10 inventoriesRAINS vs. national estimates

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

Austria

Belgium

Cyprus

Czech

Rep

ublic

Denmark

Estonia

Finlan

dFran

ceGerm

any

Greece

Hunga

ryIre

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Italy

Latvi

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xembo

urgMalt

aNeth

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dsNorw

ayPola

ndPort

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Slovak

iaSlov

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Spain

Sweden UK


Primary PM10 emissions by fuel EU-15 [kt]

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Coal, oil Wood Diesel, gasoline Other "Climate bonus"


Primary PM10 emissions by fuel New Member States [kt]



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Primary PM10 emissions by sector EU-15 [kt]

Power generation Industry Households Transport Process emissions Waste+agriculture

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Primary PM10 emissions by sector New Member States [kt]



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

PM2.5 emissions

Comparison of 2000 PM2.5 inventoriesRAINS vs. national estimates

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

Austria

Belgium

Cyprus

Czech

Rep

ublic

Denmark

Estonia

Finlan

dFran

ceGerm

any

Greece

Hunga

ryIre

land

Italy

Latvi

aLit

huan

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xembo

urgMalt

aNeth

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dsNorw

ayPola

ndPort

ugal

Slovak

iaSlov

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Spain

Sweden UK


PM emissions

• Assumed measures:– LCP Directive– Auto/Oil EURO standards– Standards for motorcycles and mopeds– Legislation on non-road mobile machinery – IPPC legislation on process sources– National legislation and national practices (if stricter)

Primary PM2.5 emissions by fuel EU-15 [kt]



0

300

600

900

1200

1500

2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

300

600

900

1200

1500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Primary PM2.5 emissions by fuel New Member States [kt]



0

100

200

300

400

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 0

100

200

300

400

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Primary PM2.5 emissions by sector EU-15 [kt]



0

300

600

900

1200

1500

2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

300

600

900

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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Primary PM2.5 emissions by sector New Member States [kt]



0

100

200

300

400

2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

100

200

300

400

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Draft conclusions

• General downwards trend in emissions caused by– Legislation on transport emissions– Further penetration of natural gas– Large Combustion Plant Directive

• Larger improvements in New Member States

• Caveats:– National energy projections might differ from PRIMES – Further validation of emission estimates necessary– More information on effects of transport emission

legislation required

Air quality impacts

Provisional estimates!

PM2.5

Contribution from anthropogenic emissions excluding secondary organic aerosols

No natural sources (soil, sea salt, biogenic, etc.) included!

Rural concentrationsAnnual mean

Average 1999 & 2003 meteorology

Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5 2000

Rural concentrationsannual mean

[µg/m3]from known anthropogenic sources

excluding sec. org. aerosols

Emissions for 2000

Average meteorologyfor 1999 and 2003

EMEP Eulerian model

Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5

2000 2010 2020

Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3]from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosolsEmissions for no further climate measures scenario, Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003, EMEP Eulerian model

Inter-annual meteorological variabilityAnthropogenic contribution to PM2.5

2003 average 1999

Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3]from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosolsEmissions for 2000, EMEP Eulerian model

Loss in life expectancy

Loss in life expectancy

2000 2010 2020Loss in average life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 (days)Mean meteorologyPreliminary estimates (simplified treatment of urban PM)

Loss in life expectancy due to PM2.5Inter-annual meteorological variability

2003 Mean 1999

Loss in average life expectancy (days)Due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5Emissions of 2000Preliminary estimates (simplified treatment of urban PM)

PM10

Contribution from anthropogenic emissions excluding secondary organic aerosols

No natural sources (soil, sea salt, etc.) included!

Rural concentrationsAnnual mean


Anthropogenic contribution to PM10 2000

Rural concentrationsannual mean

[µg/m3]from known anthropogenic sources

excluding sec. org. aerosols

Emissions for 2000

Average meteorologyfor 1999 and 2003

EMEP Eulerian model

Anthropogenic contribution to PM10

2000 2010 2020

Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3]from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosolsEmissions for the “no further climate measures” scenario Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003

Ozone AOT40

Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours

Six months (April-September)


AOT402000

AOT40(ppm.hours)

Emissions for 2000


EMEP/MSC-W

AOT40

2000 2010 2020

Six months AOT40 (forests) [ppm.hours]Emissions for the “no further climate measures” scenario Average meteorology for 1999 and 2003

Ozone AOT60

Six months (April-September)


AOT60(ppm.hours)

2000 2010 2020

Mean meteorology, April-September

Acidification of forest soils

Percentage of forest areawith acid deposition above critical loads

Using ecosystem-specific deposition!

Based on preliminary critical loads data!


Excess of forest critical loads2000, Provisional estimates!

Percentage of forest areawith acid deposition above critical loads

Emissions for 2000

Using ecosystem-specific deposition!

Based on preliminary critical loads data!


EMEP/MSC-W & CCE

Excess of forest critical loads

2000 2010 2020

Percentage of forest areawith acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, mean meteorology

Conclusions

• With decreasing pollution, also impacts are expected to decline in the future.

• However, problems will not be entirely resolved:

• PM remains serious (6 months life expectancy loss in 2020)

• Ozone: – Failure to meet old WHO guideline value in some parts of

Europe even in 2020

– More serious impacts to be expected according to new WHO findings (even with conservative interpretation)

• Acidification: Will not disappear, mainly due to NH3

• Eutrophication remains unresolved

Draft Baseline Scenarios for - European...

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