Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain
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Transcript of Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain
Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance
By
Mario Bidegain (Facultad de Ciencias – UR LA32/LA26)
Ines Camilloni (Facultad de Ciencias – UBA LA26)
AIACC Latin America/Caribbean Regional Workshop
26-29 May 2003, San Jose, Costa Rica
1. What are GCMs?
2. What GCMs outputs were selected from IPCC
DDC? 3. What variables were selected for this study?
4. Preliminary conclusions for southeastern South America
OUTLINE
What are GCMs?What they do?Simulate the response of the global climate system to increasing
greenhouse gas concentrations.
Growth in population, energy demand, changes in technological and land/cover
Greenhouse gases emissions
Atmospheric GHGs concentrations
Baseline and future climate projections
Energy-economy models
Carbon cycle and other and other chemical models
Climate models
What are GCMs?
What they work?GCMs are based on the known laws of physics describing the transport of mass and energy, depicting the global climate using a three dimensional grid over the globe.
What GCM outputs were selected from IPCC DDC?
SRES A2 forced runs: CCCMA, CSIRO, GFDL, HadCM3, NCAR-PCM
MODEL PERIOD
HADCM3 1950-2000
CSIRO-Mk2 1961-2000
NCAR-PCM 1981-2000
CGCM2 1950-2000
ECHAM4 1990-2000
Region selected for this study
Southeastern Southamerica:
20° to 47° South 45° to 67° West
What variables were selected for this study?
Sea level pressure (as indicator of goodness of GCMsto reproduce the general circulation in the region)
Rainfall (mean monthly and annual values) and annual cycle)
Temperature (monthly mean and annual values)
Spatial Correlation for Sea Level Pressure between GCMs outputs and NCEP reanalysis
meses
corr
ela
ció
n e
spa
cia
l
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
HADCM3CSIRP-Mk2CCCmaNCARECHAM4
- 7 5 - 7 0 - 6 5 - 6 0 - 5 5 - 5 0 - 4 5- 5 5
- 5 0
- 4 5
- 4 0
- 3 5
- 3 0
- 2 5
- 2 0
What climate baseline scenarios for SLP the GCMs estimate?
P R E S IO N M E D IA A N U A L A L N M MP E R IO D O 1 9 5 0 -2 0 0 0
M o d elo H A D L E Y
P R E S IO N A T M O S F E R IC A A L N M MP E R IO D O 1 9 5 0 -2 0 0 0
F u en te : R ea n a lis is N C E P /N C A R
P R E S IO N M E D IA A N U A L A L N M MP E R IO D O 1 9 5 0 -2 0 0 0
M o d elo C S IR O
Sea Level Pressure anomalies: GCMs vs.NCEP reanalysis
CSIRO-NCEP (1961-2000)
- 6 5 - 6 0 - 5 5 - 5 0 - 4 5
LON GITU D
- 4 5
- 4 0
- 3 5
- 3 0
- 2 5
- 2 0
LAT
ITU
D
- 6 5 - 6 0 - 5 5 - 5 0 - 4 5L ON GIT U D
- 4 5
- 4 0
- 3 5
- 3 0
- 2 5
- 2 0
LAT
ITU
D
HADCM3-NCEP (1950-2000)
- 6 5 - 6 0 - 5 5 - 5 0 - 4 5
L ON GIT U D
- 4 5
- 4 0
- 3 5
- 3 0
- 2 5
- 2 0
LAT
ITU
D
ECHAM4-NCEP (1990-2000) NCEP (1950-2000)
What climate baseline scenario for rainfall the GCMs estimate?
P R E C IP IT A C IO N (m m /d ia )C S IR O A N U A L (P E R IO D O 1 9 5 0 -2 0 0 )
P R E C IP IT A C IO N (m m /d ia )A N U A L P E R IO D O 1 95 0 - 2 0 0 0
N C E P /N C A R R E A N A L IS ISP R E C IP IT A C IO N (m m /d ia )H A D L E Y A N U A L (P E R IO D O 1 9 5 0 -2 0 0 0 )
-65 -60 -55 -50 -45
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
HADCM3 (1950-99)
GCMs rainfall anomalies (mm/day)
-65 -60 -55 -50 -45
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
CSIRO (1961-99)
-65 -60 -55 -50 -45
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
ECHAM4 (1991-99)
Rainfall annual cycle: GCMs vs. Climatology1990 - 2000
ANNUAL CYCLE OF PRECIPITATION(LAT:-20 LON:-56.25)
0
2
4
6
8
10
J AN MAR MAY J UL SEP NOV
mm
/day
Hadley
Csiro
Echam
Clima
ANNUAL CYCLE OF PRECIPITATION(LAT:-27.5 LON:-56.25)
0
2
4
6
8
10
J AN MAR MAY J UL SEP NOV
mm
/day
Hadley
Csiro
Echam
Clima
ANNUAL CYCLE OF PRECIPITATION(LAT:-35 LON:-56.25)
0
2
4
6
8
10
J AN MAR MAY J UL SEP NOV
mm
/day
Hadley
Csiro
Echam
Clima
ANNUAL CYCLE OF PRECIPITATION(LAT:-35 LON:-63.75)
0
2
4
6
8
10
J AN MAR MAY J UL SEP NOV
mm
/day
Hadley
Csiro
Echam
Clima
ANNUAL CYCLE OF PRECIPITATION(LAT:-27.5 LON:-63.75)
0
2
4
6
8
10
J AN MAR MAY J UL SEP NOV
mm
/day Hadley
Csiro
Echam
Clima
T E M P E R A T U R A M E D IA A N U A LP E R IO D O 1 9 5 0 -2 0 0 0
F u en te : R ea n a lis is N C E P /N C A RT E M P E R A T U R A (°C )
H A D L E Y A N U A L (P E R IO D O 1 9 5 0 -2 0 0 0 )
What climate baseline scenario for temperature the GCMs estimate?
T E M P E R A T U R A (°C )E C H A M A N U A L (P E R IO D O 1 9 9 0 -2 0 0 0 )
Global temperature change (2000-2100)
Precipitation and Temperature Changes Argentina 9 GCMs (2070-99 vs. 1961-90)
PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS
General Conclusion• Very good performance of GCMs in temperature and SLP, poor to
fair in rainfall (underestimation in the region), but improved performance respect to old GCMs versions
Future actions• 3 GCMs will be selected to construct climate scenarios
(HADLEY, ECHAM and CSIRO.• The selected variables will be: SLP (to estimate surface winds),
precipitation and temperature.• Statistical and/or dynamical downscalling, for selected locations,
will be applied to future climate scenarios.