Dissertation working copy

High speed rail: Should more countries be moving toward high speed rail as an alternative transport system and is there an

optimum size of country which suits high speed rail?

CE3182

Dissertation

Jonathan Tolson (K0722623)

Mentor: Maia Ibsen

Submission deadline 23/05/2012

1. Abstract

Jonathan Tolson K0722623Faculty of Science Engineering and Computing

This dissertation examines in detail various high speed rail networks throughout The World

and the global development of high speed rail. This dissertation also studies what it is about

these high speed networks which make them successful or not and the contributing factors

which affect this. This project studies the importance of the size of a country with regards to

high speed rail as well as the importance of the population density and the roles they play

with regard to a successful high speed rail network. The author has also taken into account

other existing factors which affect a countries decisions regarding high speed rail as well as

recognising the importance of high speed rail and the role that it will play in supplying an

alternative means of transport to that of motor vehicles and air travel which are known to

devastate the environment, but which humans have become so reliant upon.

The subject of high speed rail is currently a hotly debated topic throughout the world. This

project examines the countries which currently have a high speed rail network as well as

countries which are proposing to construct a high speed rail network of their own. By

examining the size of these countries and the densities of these countries populations this

project aims to find a window amongst the data which, the countries with what is considered

to be the most successful and efficient high speed rail networks fall into. This then makes it

possible to use this type of information for countries proposing high speed rail networks to

evaluate the potential need, success and location of any proposals for high speed rail by

looking at the current situation in individual countries.

With the literature and data examined the author will then discuss an in depth analysis of

countries which are proposing to build a high speed rail network or any countries which the

author believes may benefit from building a high speed rail network which have not taken the

decision to do so. One of the aims of this dissertation is to give insight into how and if it is

possible to construct a successful high speed network and to flag up any potential hazards

and pitfalls which may be overlooked or occur. The ultimate aim for this project is to try and

aid in the decision making of whether to construct and to give guidance on what constitutes

a viable high speed rail network. Finally this dissertation should leave the reader with an

informed knowledge of global high speed rail and why it is important to invest in this as well

as the benefits which are provided by high speed rail networks throughout the world.

2. Contents


1. Abstract.............................................................................................................................2

3. Table of Tables.................................................................................................................5

4. Table of Figures................................................................................................................5

5. Introduction.......................................................................................................................7

6. Literature Review..............................................................................................................9

6.1. The History of Modern Rail........................................................................................9

6.1.1. Initial Conception/Pre Steam..............................................................................9

6.1.2. Steam.................................................................................................................9

6.1.3. Diesel..................................................................................................................9

6.1.4. Electrification of Lines.......................................................................................10

6.1.5. 3rd Rail...............................................................................................................10

6.1.6. Overhead Rail...................................................................................................10

6.2. High Speed Rail.......................................................................................................11

6.2.1. What is High Speed Rail?.................................................................................11

6.2.2. High Speed Rail around the World...................................................................11

6.2.3. Magnetic Levitation...........................................................................................14

6.3. Nationalisation and Privatisation of Railways..........................................................14

7. Methodology...................................................................................................................15

8. Data and Initial Evaluations............................................................................................16

8.1. Kilometres of High Speed Track Per Country..........................................................17

8.2. Size of Countries.....................................................................................................22

8.3. Population Density...................................................................................................24

8.4. Other Countries and High Speed Rail.....................................................................29

8.4.1. America and High Speed Rail..........................................................................29

8.4.2. Australia and High Speed Rail..........................................................................32

8.4.3. Bulgaria and high speed rail.............................................................................35

9. Other Factors to Consider When Thinking of Constructing a High Speed Rail Network 37

10. Conclusion...................................................................................................................38

11. References..................................................................................................................41


3. Table of Tables

Table 1: Kilometres of high speed line in the world from (UIC, 2012)....................................17

Table 2: The size of countries (area in square kilometres) with or aspiring to create a high

speed network (Geohive The World Factbook 2010, 2010)..................................................22

Table 3: Population density of countries with high speed rail networks (Geohive The World

Factbook 2010, 2010)............................................................................................................24

4. Table of Figures

Figure 1: Showing a breakdown of countries and the track length and the speed which the

trains are able to reach. (Geoghegan, 2011).........................................................................13

Figure 2: The network of Europe in 2010 with the legend showing future plans (UIC, 2011)19

Figure 3: The high speed network in Europe in 2025 after the proposed routes have been

completed (UIC, 2011)...........................................................................................................19

Figure 4: The high speed network of China in 2010 with proposed future construction routes

(UIC, 2011).............................................................................................................................20

Figure 5: the high speed network of Japan 2010 showing future proposed developments

(UIC, 2011).............................................................................................................................20

Figure 6: Total high-speed miles from The International Union of Railways were taken. The

density of each high speed rail network then plotted versus the population density. (Tino,

2011)......................................................................................................................................25

Figure 7: On the left shows a map of Switzerland in 2010 with it high speed rail lines. On the

right is a map of Switzerland with the 2025 proposed developments of the high speed lines

which are connecting this corridor to Italy. (UIC, 2011).........................................................27

Figure 8: A map of Italy showing operational high speed track and future planned

developments. (UIC, 2011)....................................................................................................27

Figure 9: A map of Turkey showing operational high speed track and future planned

developments. (UIC, 2011)...................................................................................................28

Figure 10: An Acela locomotive (Geoghegan, 2011).............................................................29

Figure 11: The USHRS’s four phase plan to build a high speed network by 2030 (USHSR,

2012)......................................................................................................................................30

Figure 12: A map from phase one of Australia’s feasibility study showing the potential route

(Unsupported source type (Report) for source The11.) (Transport, 2012)............................33

Figure 13: Map of Bulgaria from which it is possible to see the small land mass which would

be used to carry the high speed route from Turkey through Bulgaria and into Europe


(Google, 2012).......................................................................................................................36


5. Introduction

High speed rail is a current global mainstream topic. The UK has within the last decade

begun construction of an infrastructure of a high speed rail network. The UK when compared

to other countries regarding high speed rail is lagging behind somewhat, with construction on

High Speed 1 recently completed and High Speed 2 still being considered.

High speed rail in its entirety is still a relatively new concept and there is still not much

literature available on it despite other countries such as France, Germany, Japan, Spain and

Italy already utilising High Speed rail. Many questions remain unanswered and one of the

purposes of this project would be to try and get some answers to a few of these questions

(found below in “objectives/questions”).

This project is also designed to examine high speed rail networks currently in operation

around the world to help answer some of the questions that are currently being posed and

debated on the sustainability of modern transportation. This project will look primarily at the

UK and what we could learn from the networks that are currently in place in other countries

around the world to help the UK develop its own system or to see if it is required in the first

place.

Objectives/Questions:

Constraints to construction with respect to environment

Car Vs Rail

Air Vs Rail

Do we need it?

Is the UK too small for High Speed Rail?

What are the capacity constraints?

Is the current transport network already in place around the proposed High Speed

network sufficient to deal with more people travelling?

Is the human element needed or can it be run electronically? Docklands Light

Railway?

Which cities would be selected to have stations on the high speed link?

Alternatives to High Speed – Maglev

Could high speed rail be the first fully sustainable transport system?

Should more countries be moving towards constructing their own high speed rail

network?


Outline methodology

Research methods will be a combination of using descriptive documents and exploratory

research with journals, literature and interviews. Overall a desk study of high speed rail.


6. Literature Review

6.1.The History of Modern Rail6.1.1. Initial Conception/Pre Steam

Although the idea of transporting freight in carts running on tracks carved into rock can be

traced back to ancient Greece and wooden railed wagon ways can be traced to 16th century

Germany, Britain is widely regarded as the birthplace of modern rail. In 1630 Britain too was

using wagon ways/roads, made of heavy planks on which horses pulled carts and wagons to

and from the coal mines, as the carts moved with greater ease than they did on the dirt

roads of the time. These wagon ways were the beginning of modern railways. (Houk, 2008)

By 1776 wooden railed wagon ways had been replaced with iron rails, transforming wagon

ways into tramways which spread throughout Europe, however the pulling power was still

being provided by horses. By 1789 flanged wheels were being used allowing the wagons to

better grip the rails, a design which is still used to this day. (Bellis, 2011)

6.1.2. Steam

The invention of the steam engine was critical to the invention of the modern railroad and

trains. The steam engine itself had originally been used by Thomas Savery (1650-1715), to

pump water out of coal mines. (Bellis, 2011)

Samuel Homfray decided in 1803 to fund development of a vehicle which was steam

powered to replace horse drawn carts being used on the tramways. The first ever steam

engine locomotive used on the tramways was built by Richard Trevithick (1771-1833) and

was completed in February 1804. (Bellis, 2011)

The oldest commercially successful railway in the world is widely considered to be Middleton

Railway in Leeds, UK. It was started in 1758 by order of an Act of Parliament and was

initially a wagon way, before later being converted into a railway. It was not until 1807 that

the wooden tracks started to be replaced with iron edge rails. In 1812 the Middleton railway

became the first commercial railway to successfully use steam locomotives. (Escapes Travel

Guides, 2004-2011)

6.1.3. Diesel

As time went by and technology moved on, other fuels became available and shortly after

the early internal combustion engine was invented. Dr. Rudolf Diesel (1858-1913) invented

the first diesel engine in 1897, but it only performed at an efficiency of about 25%.


(ThinkQuest team, 2000). Due to this lack of efficiency there were obvious issues with using

this engine in a locomotive as the weight to be pulled and poor power to weight ratio meant

that they were not suitable for the job required. The first diesel powered locomotive came in

1912 in Switzerland but it was not a huge success. With Dr. Rudolf Diesel’s death in 1913

and the outbreak of war in 1914 trials with diesel locomotives stopped. It wasn’t until 1925

that diesel locomotives started to appear on the rails and would not start to replace steam

locomotives until the 1950’s. (Alex, 2004-2005). The diesel engines in use today are a

refined and improved versions of Rudolf Diesel's original concept. (Bellis, 2011).

6.1.4. Electrification of Lines

Railway electrification systems supply electrical energy to railway locomotives to let them

operate without the need for an engine that converts fuel into useful work; this technology

has been around since the end of the 19th century. The electric traction has a higher power

to weight ratio than steam or diesel which generate power onboard, and enables faster

acceleration and climbs gradients with greater ease. In 2006 50% of all the world’s rail

transport was carried by electric traction (Smiler, 2011)

6.1.5. 3rd Rail

A third rail is an extra electrified rail running alongside or between the tracks supplying the

train with direct current electricity. This system is usually used on urban rail systems.

(Smiler, 2011)

6.1.6. Overhead Rail

Overhead wire systems are more usual for lines of long distance. These trains collect their

current from overhead electrified lines via a pantograph which is usually positioned on the

roof of the train. The overhead lines are kept under tension to resist the upwards force of the

pantograph which uses powerful springs to apply an upwards pressure. (Smiler, 2011)

This technology has also been around and in use on trams and trains since the end of the

19th century, with the first ever use on a railway in the Isle of Man in 1893. Overhead lines

are becoming increasingly common in the 21st century as high speed rail is becoming

increasingly popular all over the world due to the faster acceleration and higher limit of

speed that having a higher power to weight ratio allows (Smiler, 2011)


6.2.High Speed Rail6.2.1. What is High Speed Rail?

High speed rail is a type of passenger train which travels at speeds faster than traditional

passenger trains. However, there are different standards of what constitutes a high speed

train based on the trains speed and the technology used. (Briney, 2011). High Speed Rail

(HSR) is currently commonly defined as a railway capable of operating at speeds of

320km/hr (200 mph) and is mainly used for transporting passengers rather than freight.

(High Speed Rail UK, 2009). The European Union however, defines high speed rail as trains

which travel 125mph (200km/h) or faster, while the United States defines it as those that

travel 90mph (145 km/h) or faster. (Briney, 2011)

6.2.2. High Speed Rail around the World

The population of the world is increasing rapidly. It was was 6 billion in 1999 and is currently

just over 7 billion in 2011. Therefore more people than ever are needing to get from place to

place thus putting a great strain on transport systems around the world. (Worldometers,

2011). High speed trains first appeared in 1933 in Europe and the United States when

streamliner trains were used to transport goods and people and travelled at speeds of 80

mph (130 km/h). (Briney, 2011)

After the Second World War high speed trains became a priority for many countries. In 1957

Japan set the world record for the ability to travel at 90 mph (145 km/h). Shortly after this in

the mid 1960’s Japan introduced the world’s first high volume high speed trains which

became known throughout the world as “bullet trains”. Shortly after this Europe started

developing high capacity high speed trains but did not fully develop them until the 1980’s.

(Briney, 2011)

At present there are many high speed networks around the world. The largest are to be

found in Japan, China and Europe. The largest network in the world currently is in China

which has 6000 km of track but they have had some issues in constructing the network with

crashes causing 40 deaths and 191 injured, as well as having to stop construction due to

violation of environmental issues. (Mingxin, 2011) China is also using very advanced

technology in the form of magnetic levitation (meglev) on certain parts of their track. (Briney,

2011)

In 2007 prior to China’s construction of high speed rail lines, Japan had the largest high

speed network in the world with 2,459 km of track. High speed rail commuter lines are also

present in Taiwan, South Korea and the United States which are also at the dawn of a $98


billion dollar project to construct a Los Angeles-San Francisco line. (Briney, 2011) (Jaffe,

2011).

Europe is home to the largest amount of high speed rail lines in the world. Below is a list (in

alphabetical order) of the countries which either have a high speed rail network or are

developing one:

Austria

Belgium

Bulgaria

Croatia

Czech Republic

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Ireland

Italy

The Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Russia

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

Turkey

Ukraine

United Kingdom

Most notably of these are France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom which have the

largest high speed rail networks in Europe at the moment. (Briney, 2011) Europe in

comparison to other continents in the world is somewhat unique at present, as several

countries are becoming more easily accessible and international borders are able to be

crossed. This improves journey times when travelling along international corridors. It could

be said that high speed rail is turning Europe into a country of its own (Railteam, 2011).


Figure 1: Showing a breakdown of countries and the track length and the speed which the trains are able to reach. (Geoghegan, 2011)

With this many countries around the world, all with slight variations, really pushing the

envelope as far as high speed rail is concerned there is much that new networks have to

draw from when designing and constructing their own.

As previously mentioned, The United Kingdom, although a small island has a large

infrastructure of high speed rail. The United Kingdom’s first purpose built high speed line

was The Channel Tunnel Rail Link (CTRL) now referred to as High Speed 1 (HS1). This

track runs from London to Folkestone at which point it joins up with the Channel Tunnel and

on to the continent, taking only 2 hours and 15 minutes to get from London to Brussels. (Net

Resources International, 2011) The tunnel was opened on the 14 November 1994 as a

passenger service with High Speed 1 completed in 2007.

There are currently plans to join London to Birmingham and the West Midlands and possibly

on to Scotland. (High Speed Two (HS2), 2011) The Government seem very keen to have

this dream see fruition but there is currently a lot of debate regarding it. It was recently

announced that no decision will be made until 2012.


6.2.3. Magnetic Levitation

Magnetic levitation or maglev is a type of high speed rail which has been developed using

powerful electromagnets and a basic principle of magnets which allows maglev trains to

float/glide over a guide way thus replacing track and wheel making them smoother, quieter

and requiring less maintenance that traditional wheeled trains. These types of high speed

lines and trains are expensive due to how new the technology is but they do not use any

fossil fuels and are instead pulled forwards by a magnetic field created by electrified coils in

the guide way (Bonsor, 2012).

6.3.Nationalisation and Privatisation of RailwaysGreat Britain’s railway system was originally built like a patchwork quilt of local links

operated by small private companies. During the 18th and 19th centuries they were

amalgamated or were bought by competitors until only a handful of large companies

remained. They were all brought under Government control in the First World War which

unlocked previously unknown advantages and potential. They were not Nationalised but

were grouped into four; The Great Western Railway, The Southern Railway, The London,

Midland and Scottish Railway and the London and North Eastern Railway. It ran like this until

1947 and at the beginning of 1948 were nationalised forming British Railways. There were

cuts in Government funding in the 1980’s which caused the service to be more cost

effective. Between 1994 and 1997 all railway operations became privatised with ownership

of the infrastructure and track given to Railtrack, and passenger operations were franchised.

After the Hatfield accident Railtrack collapsed to be replaced by Network Rail which is

owned by the state. (Welsby and Nichols, 1999)


7. Methodology

The following project looks primarily at high speed rail and its applications in the hope of

answering certain questions stated in the introduction, but primarily whether the size of a

country has any effect on the success or failure of the network, for instance the United

Kingdom Vs America or China. Other questions that have already arisen are if this would be

sustainable with the possibility being whether high speed rail could be the first global

transport system to be fully sustainable.

Research methods will be a combination of using descriptive documents and exploratory

research with journals, literature and interviews. This project is overall a desk study of high

speed rail. This has already begun with a literature review to grasp a working knowledge of

the background and history of the subject and its roots. Secondly a look at other high speed

networks around the world which are currently in use to try and deduce any answers to the

questions or highlight other possible paths to be taken. To summarise, this project is

designed to see how the high speed rail industry will progress and shall achieve this by

looking at where the industry has been, where it is now and where it could possibly lead in

the future.

There are also several case studies that have already been conducted which this project will

aim to look at with relevance to high speed rails progression within the United Kingdom.

These are:

The Atkins Report

The Commission for Integrated Transport

The Eddington Report

The Greengauge 21 Study

The Governments White Paper on Delivering a Sustainable Railway

Other case studies which will be used in this project with relevance to high speed rail

throughout the rest of the world are:

Moving forward with high speed rail

8. Data and Initial Evaluations


In the introduction for this project, it was mentioned that the aim of this project was to

examine high speed rail networks around the world and try to answer any number of

questions that may be relevant to the success or failure of this type of transport system.

Below is a reminder of some of the questions or issues being considered at this point, and

hopefully will be answered during this project:

Constraints to construction with respect to environment

Car Vs Rail

Air Vs Rail

Do we need it?

Is the UK too small for High Speed Rail?

What are the capacity constraints?

Is the current transport network already in place around the proposed High Speed

network sufficient to deal with more people travelling?

Is the human element needed or can it be run electronically? DLR!

Which cities would be selected to have stations on the high speed link?

Alternatives to High Speed – Maglev

Could high speed rail be the first fully sustainable transport system?

Should more countries be moving towards constructing their own high speed rail

network?

In the literature review it was noted that there were already several countries with a decent

high speed rail network and many other countries with proposals in place to build a high

speed rail network. To start to evaluate the subject of high speed rail and bearing in mind the

questions that are to be answered, the project will start by taking a closer look at some of the

countries in the world which have planned or have already operational high speed rail

networks.


8.1.Kilometres of High Speed Track Per Country

KM OF HIGH SPEED LINES IN THE WORLD

Updated 1st November 2011. Lines or sections of lines in which operation V > 250 km/h1

In operationUnder

construction Planned Total countryBelgium 209 0 0 209France 1896 210 2616 4722Germany 1285 378 670 2333Italy 923 0 395 1318The Netherlands 120 0 0 120Poland 0 0 712 712Portugal 0 0 1006 1006Russia 0 0 650 650Spain 2056 1767 1702 5525Sweden 0 0 750 750Switzerland 35 72 0 107United Kingdom 113 0 204 317Total Europe 6637 2427 8705 17769 China 6299 4339 2901 13539Taiwan-China 345 0 0 345India 0 0 495 495Iran 0 0 475 475Japan 2664 378 583 3625Saudi Arabia 0 550 0 550South Korea 412 186 49 647Turkey 447 758 1219 2424Total Asia 10167 6211 5722 22100 Morocco 0 200 480 680Brazil 0 0 511 511USA 362 0 900 1262Total other countries 362 200 1891 2453 Total World 17166 8838 16318 42322

Table 1: Kilometres of high speed line in the world from (UIC, 2012)


Table one shows a selection of the main countries currently operating, constructing or

planning to construct a high speed railway line. It also shows the distance of railway that

each country has in operation, under construction and planned. This is shown as the total

amount of rail in kilometres for each individual country as well as the total amounts for

Europe and Asia and a total for the whole World. This information was compiled by the

International Union of Railways and was updated in November 2011.

From the table it is also possible to take a look at the countries which have been doing this

the longest (Japan and France) as well as the countries which are running what is

considered to be the most successful networks ( Spain, Germany, France and Italy). The

current leaders by track length are France, Germany, Spain, Japan and China. Other

countries with aspirations of getting into this league include Italy, Portugal and the United

States of America, all with proposed plans of building over 1,000 kilometres of track.

Turkey’s plans are the most ambitious, with them aiming to build 1,219 kilometres of track

taking their overall amount to 2,424 kilometres of track which would surpass the amount of

Germany (Kumar, 2011). From this table it is also possible to see that China has a large

amount of high speed rail currently in operation, yet they are also still constructing and have

more planned. There is a high speed rail boom at the moment and many of the projects are

aiming to be finished within the next decade. China is constructing their vast network so

quickly at the moment as they are one of the few countries in the world which have not

suffered very badly with the global economic crisis. “The length of HSR tracks worldwide is

undergoing explosive growth in order to meet increasing demand. Between 2009 and 2011,

the total length of operational track has grown from some 10,700 kilometres to nearly 17,000

kilometres. Another 8,000 kilometres is currently under construction, and some 17,700

kilometres more is planned, for a combined total of close to 43,000 kilometres. That is

equivalent to about 4 percent of all rail lines----passenger and freight----in the world today.”

(Kumar, 2011).


Figure 2: The network of Europe in 2010 with the legend showing future plans (UIC,2011)

Figure 3: The high speed network in Europe in 2025 after the proposed routes have been completed (UIC, 2011)


Figure 4: The high speed network of China in 2010 with proposed future construction routes (UIC, 2011)

Figure 5: the high speed network of Japan 2010 showing future proposed developments (UIC, 2011)


Overall this table tells us the distance of railway lines that each country has as well as what

is being built and what is in use. This table can only go so far into answering the questions

posed at the beginning of this project. From the table it has been deduced which countries

have or are aspiring to construct a high speed rail network. Figures one, two, three and four

show the main areas in the world which are currently operating high speed networks and any

future proposals of development which are expected to take place.


8.2. Size of CountriesOne of the questions stated was if there is a particular size of country that was best suited to

this type of transport. As the countries which are considered to have the best and most

efficient networks, this project shall now take a look at the size of countries paying particular

attention to the fore mentioned countries.

Table 2: The size of countries (area in square kilometres) with or aspiring to create a high speed network (Geohive The World Factbook 2010, 2010)

Table 2 shows a selection of the world’s countries

which have a working high speed rail network, are

in the process of constructing one or have

aspirations to build one. The countries highlighted

in yellow are the five countries which are deemed

to have the most efficient and best high speed rail

networks in the world. All of these countries with

the exception of China fall roughly within a similar

size of country. Germany is the smallest with just

over 350,000 square kilometres and France has the

most with just under 650,000 square kilometres.

China has by far and away the greatest area with

9,596,960 square kilometres. This may be a bit of a

“red herring” for the purpose that the data is being

used for, as they have recently constructed vast

amounts of a high speed rail network as the global

economic crisis did not affect China as badly as it

did in certain other countries in the world.

Country Area sq.km.

Austria 83,870Belgium 30,528Bulgaria 110,910Croatia 56,542Czech Republic 78,866Denmark 43,094Finland 338,145France 643,427Germany 357,021Greece 131,940Ireland 70,280Italy 301,230Netherlands 41,526Norway 323,802Poland 312,685Portugal 92,391Russia 17,075,200Spain 504,782Sweden 449,964Switzerland 41,290Ukraine 603,700United Kingdom 244,820 China 9,596,960Taiwan - China 35,980India 3,287,590Iran 1,648,000Japan 377,835Saudi Arabia 2,149,690South Korea 98,480Turkey 780,580 Australia 7,686,850Brazil 8,511,965Morocco 446,550USA 9,826,630


Alternatively, if China is not a “red herring” then what other factors could be relative

regarding how effective a high speed rail network is? The next stage is to take a look at the

population densities of countries. This will be to see if there is a particular density of

population into which the five countries highlighted above fall.


8.3.Population Density

Population Density

country area sq.km. population humans2010-07-01 est. per sq.km.

Austria 83,870 8,214,160 98Belgium 30,528 10,423,493 341Bulgaria 110,910 7,148,785 64Croatia 56,542 4,486,881 79


Czech Republic 78,866 10,201,707 129Denmark 43,094 5,515,575 128Finland 338,145 5,255,068 16France 643,427 64,057,792 100Germany 357,021 82,282,988 230Greece 131,940 10,749,943 81Ireland 70,280 4,250,163 60Italy 301,230 58,090,681 193Netherlands 41,526 16,783,092 404Norway 323,802 4,676,305 14Poland 312,685 38,463,689 123Portugal 92,391 10,735,765 116Russia 17,075,200 139,390,205 8Spain 504,782 40,548,753 80Sweden 449,964 9,074,055 20Switzerland 41,290 7,623,438 185Ukraine 603,700 45,415,596 75United Kingdom 244,820 61,284,806 250 China 9,596,960 1,330,141,295 139Taiwan - China 35,980 23,024,956 640India 3,287,590 1,173,108,018 357Iran 1,648,000 67,037,517 41Japan 377,835 126,804,433 336

Saudi Arabia 2,149,690 29,207,277 14

South Korea 98,480 48,636,068 494Turkey 780,580 77,804,122 100 Australia 7,686,850 21,515,754 3Brazil 8,511,965 201,103,330 24Morocco 446,550 31,627,428 71USA 9,826,630 310,232,863 32 source: "The World Factbook 2010", CIA.

Table 3: Population density of countries with high speed rail networks (Geohive TheWorld Factbook 2010, 2010)

Table 3 shows every country currently with a high speed rail network, those that are

constructing one or those who are planning to construct one. This table not only shows the

area in kilometres square of each country but also the population of each country taken from

2010. From this, the amount of humans per square kilometre can be obtained. The five

countries referred to throughout this project as the five countries with the most successful

and efficient models of a high speed rail network in the world are highlighted in yellow. When

the figures for the population density (humans per square kilometre) are looked at the first


thing that can be noted is that China is no longer a figure that is vastly different from the

other four countries. It is not even the country with the densest population of these five

countries. Japan has the densest population with 336 humans per square kilometre and

Spain has the least dense population with 80 humans per square kilometre. The figures of

Germany, France and China all fall between these two countries in terms of population

density but there are other countries which also have a population density that falls between

80 and 336 humans per square kilometre, these are highlighted in grey. The countries

written in red are other countries which have alluded to wanting a high speed rail network in

the future. The countries that are written in green are other countries which this project will

look at later on to assess whether they are viable or not for a high speed rail network.

Figure 6: Total high-speed miles from The International Union of Railways were taken. The density of each high speed rail network then plotted versus the population density. (Tino, 2011)

Figure 5 shows a graph of the density of high speed track versus the population density. On

this graph a red square has been added in order to indicate the area in which France,

Germany, Japan, Spain and China fall into. The graph helps to confirm that earlier findings

and conclusions were correct. Spain has the lowest population density with Japan having the

highest and France, China and Germany all falling within the expected parameter. The high

speed train density is in comparison to the size of the country which is why China’s high

speed train density doesn’t look as big as it should be and also why Japan’s looks much

greater than it should be.


So the theory regarding population density seems to be that for a high speed rail network to

operate at its most successful and efficient, the population density for a country needs to be

between 80 humans per square kilometre and 336 humans per square kilometre. This

certainly seems to work as a general rule of thumb, and for Spain, Germany, France, Japan

and China is working well. However, Italy and Switzerland both have a population density

right in the middle between 80 and 336 and both countries have high speed rail lines.

Switzerland only has 35 kilometres of high speed track in operation at the moment with a

further 72 kilometres under construction. This would take the total amount of high speed

track in Switzerland to 107 kilometres in a relatively small country. Switzerland with regards

to this theory on population density and high speed rail appears to be an anomaly. This is

because its geographic location at the heart of Europe commits the country to being a

through route, although its mountainous terrain militates against high speed rail. Italy has

923 kilometres of high speed track currently in operation with a further 395 kilometres

planned to be constructed taking Italy’s total amount of high speed rail track to 1,318

kilometres. On paper Italy does seem like an ideal country to benefit from high speed rail

due to the geographic conditions which the country has to contend with. The other country

which falls within the boundaries of this theory of a population density between 80 and 336 is

Turkey. Turkey currently has 447 kilometres of operational high speed track while

constructing 758 kilometres of track. Turkey also has plans to build another 1,219 kilometres

of track which would tack the total amount of track to 2,424 kilometres which is more than

the amount which Germany would have. This too seems like a smart idea as the country

straddles a continental border with Europe and the Middle East which would open up this

route massively to tourism and trade alike.


Figure 7: On the left shows a map of Switzerland in 2010 with it high speed rail lines. On the right is a map of Switzerland with the 2025 proposed developments of the high speed lines which are connecting this corridor to Italy. (UIC, 2011)

Figure 8: A map of Italy showing operational high speed track and future planned developments. (UIC, 2011)


Figure 9: A map of Turkey showing operational high speed track and future planned developments. (UIC, 2011)

It must be remembered from the theory of population density, that the density is not uniform.

The meaning of this is that although the population density of a country has 120 humans per

square mile, the humans are not evenly distributed across the whole country. For instance,

there are several kilometres square in Australia that have no humans living in them, yet

when the population density is worked out the area of the land is taken and divided by the

population of the area of that land. This gives a number for the population density, or how

many humans there are per square kilometre.

Initially the theory behind an ideal high speed rail network was considered throughout this

project to be the size of a country and then the population density of a country. After

examining these aspects of a country in relation to high speed rail networks a definitive

answer has not yet been arrived at and if anything may have confused the matter even

more. It has also been notice that so far The United States of America as well as other

significant countries have not managed to make it into the considerations as they have not

met the criteria on which a successful and efficient high speed rail network is being judged

by this project. Is there a good reason for this or does the criteria being used to make these

judgements need to be revised?


8.4.Other Countries and High Speed RailIn this section this project will analyse three countries which have not been talked about so

far and currently two of them have no operational high speed rail network. The other country

has the odd high speed line but recently has put forward proposals to construct a national

high speed network. The first country that shall be looked at will be The United States of

America.

8.4.1. America and High Speed Rail

Since Barack Obama was elected President of the United States there has been talk of a

high speed rail network being constructed across America which could rival the network

currently in operation across continental Europe and cost $600 Billion to construct. There are

currently railway line classed as high speed railway lines in America, but they are not

actually very high speed by accepted high speed world definitions. There have been several

studies into the current systems in place in America and they have found that there are good

points and bad points. Good points include that what is there currently is comfortable, travels

into the heart of the city, is punctual and there are no security hassles to worry about as with

airports. The bad points which have been noted were that the system isn’t really high speed,

seats are not allocated, there can be long queues at the station and travelling by rail can be

more costly than flying. (Geoghegan, 2011). The Acela Express takes 2 hours and 46

minutes to travel between New York and Washington which is not fast enough to persuade

drivers to leave their cars at home and use the train. In terms of speed, frequency and luxury

the European trains win over the Acela Express every time. Acela is the flagship line of the

government owned company which runs the US railways. (Geoghegan, 2011).

Figure 10: An Acela locomotive (Geoghegan, 2011)

The Acela Express runs along the densely populated North-East corridor of the United

States between Washington and Boston. The trains on this line only briefly reach speeds of

241 kilometres per hour (150mph) but on average their speeds are 127 kilometres per hour


(79mph). These speeds do not reflect what is meant by “high speed” with regard to high

speed rail throughout the world, although there are track upgrades coming along which will

increase these speeds. (Geoghegan, 2011).

The United States High Speed Rail Association (USHSR) aims to build a high speed rail

network by using a very ambitious four phase plan with construction being completed by

2030.

Figure 11: The USHRS’s four phase plan to build a high speed network by 2030 (USHSR, 2012)

As with any revolutionary project like this there will always be, especially it seems with

America, a vast gap between those who are pro the project and those who are against it,

due to financial and political vested interests. Below is a list of the pros and cons for creating

a high speed network in The United States.

Pros:

Reduced reliance on imported oil; "The oil supply and price is not sustainable and we

will not be able to continue to run America with oil at $200 a barrel. If we are going to

maintain our prosperity and mobility we have to build this rail system." (Kunz, 2011).


Generate hundreds of thousands of jobs. (Kunz, 2011). “Congressman Jim Costa

believes building the railway will generate nearly 300,000 jobs and then another

450,000 permanent posts after it's built”. (Geoghegan, 2011).

Stimulates the economy

Eases congestion

Relieves congestion at airports

Provides benefits to the environment, less pollution

Running cost for the individual/traveller are reduced making travel cheaper and

easier

Safer than road travel

Cons:

Cost - $600 Billion

Doubts over ability to construct - Christian Wolmar, a transport expert based in the

UK said, "In California, the notion that they can build in one fell swoop a high-speed

network that runs from Sacramento to San Diego is just too ambitious. Why not start

with a high-speed line that stretches from one end of the Bay Area to the other? Then

extend it to LA? Instead they plan this massive high-speed line that goes from one

end of the state to another." (Geoghegan, 2011).

Arguable as to how many Americans will take trains

Freedom of personal transport

Price of tickets – if too high will result in a lack of passengers which would negate the

supposed benefits of high speed rail

Government funding could be used to improve existing transport infrastructure

Noise pollution

Cultural preference with regards to the use of motor vehicles and not trains

Overall America seems like it has spent the last 50 years or so dedicating their country to the

motor vehicle and neglected their railway infrastructure. Times have changed and it would

seem that if a country wants to progress then a high speed rail network needs to be a part of

the infrastructure to aid this progression. The USA have not completely ignored their railway

infrastructure. What was there has been taken over and run by freight companies and

American railroad freight is quite unique compared to how it has been handled by other

countries as the freight trains are some of the longest in the world. Christian Wolmar, a

transport expert based in the UK also mentioned, “While the US freight rail system is

fantastically successful, the existing passenger service is decades behind Europe due to

low investment and hostility from freight companies, which own most of the track. America


has not been able to retain anything but a vestige of a passenger railway. Amtrak carries

about 30 million passengers a year, which in Britain, a much smaller country, is about 10

days' worth of journeys. They also haven't managed to achieve speeds, frequency or fares

that would rival cars." (Geoghegan, 2011).

If a high speed rail network is to be successful in America then arrangements would need to

be made for it to either run alongside or be overlaid on top of the outdated system which

currently exists. Essentially America are proposing to build, what continental Europe has

built up over the course of the better part of half a century, in a relatively short period of time.

There is also no guarantee that this would be successful and perhaps a revised building plan

breaking the project down into smaller parts being built over a longer period of time would be

a smarter and more efficient use of funds, for example, starting as Christian Wolmar

suggests with a line in California’s Bay area. This type of project is as mentioned, expensive

especially when the world is suffering through a tough recession but a project of this calibre

would create a lot of jobs.

Ultimately the question is does the USA need a national high speed rail network? The

answer to this is that it would be very nice for any country to have a state of the art high

speed rail network however, there should probably be a feasibility study carried out before

any plans are made. The USA has not carried out an in depth study of this nature. If they

were to do this, they would more than likely find out that the USA is too big and does not

have a population density great enough to warrant or justify spending the money on a

nationwide high speed rail endeavour. The places where it should be implemented if the

country were to be broken down into smaller sections (possibly by state) then the areas

which have a population density great enough to benefit from this infrastructure would be the

North East corridor and the Californian coast line. Work is due to start on a high speed

passenger rail system in California in the near future which is due to run the entire length of

the state. These areas when examined also are centres of commerce. No matter what

happens there will be some considerable financial and political hurdles to overcome.

8.4.2. Australia and High Speed Rail

High speed rail has also recently been proposed for Australia. In many ways this proposed

high speed network is destined to succeed where the ambitious dream of a high speed rail

network in the USA may not. This is due to several reasons. The Australian Government

have been exploring the idea of building this infrastructure into their country very seriously.

Unlike the American’s ambitious proposal the Australians seem to be much more realistic

and conservative. “Australia is the only continent apart from Antarctica that doesn’t have a


high speed rail network” said Brian Nye the Chief Executive of The Australian Railway

Association (Russell, 2012). This may be about to change. Unlike the USA, Australia do not

seem to wish to have a country wide high speed rail network as they realise that this would

be too costly and unnecessary. Australia has focused any efforts so far on the East coast

where the population densities and centres are. They have also launched a two phase

feasibility study called “moving forward with high speed rail”, the outcome of which shall

determine if spending the money on constructing this network would be worthwhile. The

study also aims to look at potential routes which the high speed line may take as well as

potential station locations. Phase one of the study has been completed with phase two

expected to be completed by the end of 2012. The Department for Infrastructure and

Transport of the Australian Government “is drawing on international experience, public and

private sector expertise, growth forecasts and other contemporary data” to ensure the best

results and get a clear picture of where they stand (Transport, 2012).

Figure 12: A map from phase one of Australia’s feasibility study showing the potential route (Transport, The Australian Government - The Department of Infrastructure and,2011) (Transport, 2012).

Looking more closely at the East coast the route proposed would take the high speed

network over a distance of over 1,600 kilometres and link the cities of Brisbane, Sydney,


Canberra and Melbourne. Phase one of the report has already found that the cost of such a

network would lay between $61 and $108 Billion (Australian dollars). The high speed trains

which would operate on this network would be able to achieve speeds of up 350 kilometres

per hour which would result in journey times between Brisbane and Sydney, Sydney and

Melbourne as low as 3 hours. Journey times between Sydney and Newcastle have been

estimated at 40 minutes and between Sydney and Canberra have been estimated at an hour

(Transport, 2012) (Transport, The Australian Government - The Department of Infrastructure

and, 2011). In this part of Australia it also currently has the fifth busiest air corridor in the

world. There are worries that the proposed high speed rail network therefore would have

little impact as it would be in direct competition with this. The phase one report has stated

confidently that, due to more and more people becoming bored with flying for a variety of

reasons, chief of which being the security measures which one has to go through that adds

more time to ones journey. This in combination with some of the benefits which one gets by

using a high speed trains (takes passengers directly to the city centre rather than an airport

orbiting the city), and that around half of those passengers who currently choose to fly will be

opting to travel by high speed rail instead. To attract these customers the report has also

boasted competitive ticket prices and estimates that if the network were to be constructed

then by the year 2036 would have carried 54million passengers (Transport, 2012)

(Transport, The Australian Government - The Department of Infrastructure and, 2011).

Phase two of the report is currently in progress which is looking into the finer details which

this potential network needs to have assessed.

From the evidence displayed above it is clear that Australia have put some serious thought

into the high speed rail study so far and are continuing to do so. There seems little reason

for it to be thought that a high speed network in this part of the world would be anything

other than a success. Australia are on the verge of committing to constructing a high speed

rail network covering the high population and high commerce area of their East coast. They

may never have a high speed network to rival those countries which are considered as the

high speed rail giants in the world but they have no need to as long as their network is

successful. There is also a potential for expansion to Cairns in the North and a potential

route from Melbourne to Darwin in the North via Adelaide and Alice Springs.


8.4.3. Bulgaria and high speed rail

Throughout this dissertation the countries which have been looked at with regards to high

speed rail are already proactively seeking either the potential for constructing a network or

they already have one. Bulgaria has neither but it lies directly astride the obvious route

between Turkey and the rest of continental Europe. As mentioned previously in this

dissertation Turkey are in the construction phase of creating their own high speed network.

To join their network to the European network would indicate transit through Bulgaria.

However, it would seem that what Bulgaria currently understand by high speed rail does not

fall into the generally accepted definition of high speed rail, and seems more likely to be a

medium speed freight service. China has been in discussions with Bulgaria regarding

opening up a high speed route as they are wanting to send freight trains so that they can

trade commerce throughout Europe. However at this point in time this is still very

speculative. There are other factors to consider when proposing high speed rail for Bulgaria.

The geography of the country doesn’t necessarily lend itself to high speed rail. A great deal

of supporting infrastructure would need to be put in place if such a network was to be

constructed, infrastructure such as tunnels and bridges for the network to use. The country

suffers from some poor roads and highways which are treacherous to travel on which is

another factor in arguing for high speed rail in Bulgaria. The country also does not meet the

population density that is expected for a high speed rail network to function effectively. It

could be argued that in Bulgaria’s case that this is less of an issue as it is likely to be more of

a freight through route than a internal high speed passenger service. Ultimately construction

of a high speed rail network in Bulgaria would most likely fall in to the hands of those richer

(and more advanced in terms of high speed rail) countries around Bulgaria who wish to use

Bulgaria as a through route, to construct the network.


Figure 13: Map of Bulgaria from which it is possible to see the small land mass which would be used to carry the high speed route from Turkey through Bulgaria and into Europe (Google, 2012).


9. Other Factors to Consider When Thinking of Constructing a High Speed Rail Network

When a country is looking at introducing a high speed network into its infrastructure there

are other factors besides the size of country or the density of population which must be

factored in to see if it is a viable option for the country. Some of these areas do relate to

some of the areas which have been discussed in this project as shall be noted below.

CO2 emissions:

Travel by high speed rail is a much more environmentally friendly means of transport than

travelling by car or by plane. A study carried out in 2006 by the Centre for Neighbourhood

Technologies found that high speed rail releases between 30 and 70 grams of CO2 per

passenger kilometre while planes release 170 grams of CO2 per passenger kilometre and

cars released 150 grams of CO2 per passenger kilometre (Fleischfresser, 2011).

Terrorism and Security:

Due to the way in which the world has changed there are now security threats on targets

which would upset a country’s infrastructure. These include modes of transport such as

trains and aircraft which have the potential to be used as moving weapons. So far a high

speed train has not been used for this purpose but aircraft have. Due to this security

measures at airports have been drastically stepped up which is putting people off flying and

is also significantly increasing the journey time which is causing more people to use high

speed rail as an alternate method of transport.


10. Conclusion

The questions that this project set out to find answers to at the begging have not all been

answered. This is because of an under estimation and it was quite ambitious to attempt to

answer this many questions in a project where the maximum word count is 12,000 words.

These questions do have answers but can only be answered briefly as to not go over the

word count. Any of these question which have not had an in depth examination on them in

this project would make excellent topics for further study or dissertations for future students.

As far as the air versus rail question is concerned, high speed rail can be competitive up to a

point it would appear. Over long distances (more than 500 miles) air travel will beat high

speed rail as it will be faster. However as the technology improves and trains are able to

travel at higher speeds, thus reducing the journey time, air travel will become less

competitive when compared to high speed rail.

How well does the motorcar compare to high speed rail? The car is subject to traffic

congestion at every turn and is comparatively slow. It is also environmentally unfriendly as

the motor vehicle burns fossil fuel. For travelling over greater distances the car is slow and

expensive and then there is the problem of storing the motor vehicle. So high speed rail

comes out on top for longer journeys.

Is the United Kingdom too small for high speed rail? From the data gathered in this project it

became obvious very quickly that the size of country could not dictate whether or not high

speed rail would be viable or successful in that country. The United Kingdom falls well within

the window of recommended population density for which high speed rail would be made

successful. Therefore the United Kingdom is not too small for high speed rail and this can be

seen as more and more people in the South East of the country are utilising high speed rail

to live further away from where they work and commute to that location daily.

Is the current transport network already in place around the proposed High Speed network

sufficient to deal with more people travelling? The proposed High Speed 2 link between

London and Birmingham has Euston station as it London terminal. High speed 1 which is

already operational in the South East of England has Kings Cross St. Pancras as its London

terminal as well as the link from the continent. The problem is therefore that a change has to

be made at London due to the two termini although they are relatively close together. The

link between these two stations has yet to be established and until this is done will represent

a time wasting break in the network.


Is the human element needed or can it be run electronically like the Docklands Light

Railway? This is technically feasible however lack of a driver will undoubtedly meet customer

resistance as there is a perceived element of safety with a human being assuming a driver

role. This is more accepted with a slower moving train such as The Docklands Light Railway

than it is with the much faster moving high speed trains.

The only alternatives to high speed rail at the moment is magnetic levitation (maglev) which

is currently being used in Japan and China. This is very expensive to build but due to the

lack of friction as there are no wheels touching a track, is able to reach far greater speeds

(faster ever recorded 581 kilometres per hour).

Could high speed rail be the first fully sustainable transport system? This looks very likely

but is dependent on the energy source. Part of the sustainability for high speed rail is how

the energy which drives the system is generated and the use of less fossil fuel is part of this.

The electricity to drive the system is generated centrally and efficiently and increasingly from

non-fossil fuel sources, i.e. nuclear, wind power. This doubles the benefits for high speed rail

as the better it gets the fewer cars there will be on the road and this will lead to further

reduction in the motorcar and its use of fossil fuel with the benefits of reduced pollution. As

the technology becomes more advanced high speed rail will become more and more

sustainable.

Should more countries be moving towards constructing their own high speed rail network?

Form the data collected during this project it is obvious that this is exactly what is happening

around the world as more and more countries seek to use high speed rail as a solution to

their transport requirements. It seems to be the natural progression anyway.

Is high speed rail needed? The benefits of high speed rail far outweigh any disadvantages.

The benefits have been found throughout this project, it is faster, and it’s less polluting. The

benefit to the community, the environment and the economy are far outweighed by any

costs, which will mostly end up going back into the economy.

This project has looked at the relationships between how viable, how successful and how

efficient a countries high speed rail systems are or could be in relation to a countries size

and in relation to a countries population density. The project has found that the size of a

country, whether very big or very small is not the factor which will make a high speed rail

network successful or viable. This is shown in the project in both extremes where large

countries of America and China are examined as well as smaller countries such as

Switzerland. As the information obtained from this alone did not give enough information to

be able to assess the situation fully the population density was then examined looking at the


relationship between high speed rail and a countries population density. The information

obtained in this section of the dissertation showed that for larger countries when the county

is broken down into areas of population density it basically becomes its own country. It also

showed that areas of the country where there is no population (deserts, outback, etc.)

negates the population density slightly and some common sense as well as some research

usually clears up any matters in this area.

Visions for the future – maglev has already been talked about previously but as it becomes

cheaper will more than likely become the next step technically in high speed rail. China is

already talking of future developments between Asia and Europe and have discussed two

routes, one North through Russia and a more Southern route through Turkmenistan and

Iran. There have also been discussions of the feasibility of running a high speed rail line

across The Bering Strait between Russia and the United States.

a


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