Digital Media 101

Drivers & Frameworks: How We Got Here and

Where We are Going

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Dr. Gigi Johnson, Executive Director, Maremel InstituteEducation Programs in Media and Cultural Change

@maremel

Computers as a retail consumer product seemed humorous in 1965

Cartoon, Gordon Moore articleElectronics, Volume 38, Number 8, April 19, 1965.

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2 Forces Geometrically Changed How We Connect

Dramatic increase and diffusion of data, storage, and computer processing power into the system and into homes and cell phones

Dramatic decrease in the cost of “distance” (Cairncross, 1997) from both deregulation and technology creating infrastructure and reduced per minute or per connection cost

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Moore’s Law continues to drop cost and increase speed of computing

Source: Deloitte’s Center for the Edge

Source: Intel.com1965: prediction that the number of transistors on a chip will double about every two years

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Kuyper’s Law: Storage Cost Continues to Plummet

Source: Deloitte’s Center for the Edge

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Bandwidth Continues to Decline in Cost, Increase in Speed and Capacity

Source: Deloitte’s Center for the Edge

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Internet is Reaching the Last Third of U.S. users, Mostly Over 65

Sources: Deloitte Center for the Edge, Pew

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US Mobile Has Reached Saturation; Internet/4G to Keep Growing

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Technology: Changing Rules

Expectations Funds

Content Time

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4 costs have transformed content creation, transport, and playback

Cost of digital distribution and inventory

Costs of transit and storage

Costs of creation and tools

Costs (and rewards) have increased to integrate, e.g., Google, Facebook, Vevo, YouTube, Twitter, etc.

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Resulting Power Shifters and New Limits

o Extensive computing power in the home and inexpensive storage -- heading to Cloud Computing

o In most countries, broadband in expansion or late adopter stage

o Battery/power being “solved”

o Compression (continuing) to be “solved”

o Heat (heat?)/energy use

o Tools for inexpensive creation

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Media technologies connect “Where” and “When”

• Time of Consumption

• Place of Consumption

• Metaphors/rules of consumption

• Time of Capture• Place of Capture• Rules of

Capture/Editing/Context

TimeSpaceConnections

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Examples LocationTime Shifting

Multiple Uses

Multiple Media

Concerts, theater, sporting events

1 – live venue – out of home

None 1 Initially, none

Movies in theater 1 – shifted – out of home

Yes – venue’s choice

1 for user; multiple for theater

None

Records Many – moveable

Yes – user’s choice

Many None (45 vs LP)

Television 1 – shifted – in home

Yes – channel’s choice

1 for user; multiple by contract for station

None

Radio 1 – shifted – in home

Yes – channel’s choice

1 1

Progressive Media Have Re-sliced Time and Place for Consumers

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Time and Place Shifted to the Home and Onward

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Examples LocationTime Shifting

Multiple Uses

Multiple Media

Rental, Home Video(1984 Betamax ruling)

1 – shifted, in-home

Yes Yes No

CD; cassettes; DVD; books, newspapers

Many – shifted – users’ choice

Yes Yes Not until recently

DVRs (digital video recorders, like TiVo)

Where the device is

Yes Yes Progressively (e.g., Slingbox)

Digital files – mp3, epub, jpg, html, avi, mpeg2, mpeg4, etc.

Many Yes Yes Yes – crashed into time- and place-based contracts

New Media Cracked Open Time and Place Permanently

…so will we ever need to purchase another copy of a library media? DATA is now the driver.

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Digital Connection Drivers are Reconnecting Time and Place with Data

Technologies of Connection

• Metadata to the frame

• Recording relationship with user

• Recording relationship with distribution

• Influencing relationships with filter and relationship with other media objects

• Allowing connection with other media objects

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Time: Sliced and Diced with Data

Data now measures and guides connection between consumer use and advertiser measurement of time

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Data Driving New Business Models

• Licensing and new syndications• Razor/blade – cross-subsidy

• Paying for virtual goods or relationship

• Versioning/”Freemium” (free or inexpensive versions to promote and for various media)

• Selling data and behavior (like advertising)• New “Windows” – new slicing economic rent

by timeframe and technology limits• “Library” – selling different time/place values for paid-for

content

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AbundantCreation

Creative Community

New Filters + New Abundance Drive New Creative Industry Structures

Variable Inputs + Uncertain Outputs =Excess Production and Capacity

Source: Caves, Creative Industries, 2000

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Gartner’s Hype Cycles: New Models Push in with Inflated Expectations

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Gartner Hype Positions Shifted: 2009-2011 Editions

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New Powers: Alliances, Keystones, and New Aggregators

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Interwoven Networks of Influence are Changing

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Bulk of Internet Users: Asia and Europe

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Global Shifts to Connected Participation

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Source: Universal McCann Wave4 7/09

Citizen journalism unleashed whole

new realms of participation, politics, and

recommendations

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Wireless: 3G projected to strongly penetrate before 2016, behind Europe and Japan

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Expanding our External Brains: New Expectations

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Consumer decision points are changing to “right now”

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. . . and instant data is now available for that decision influencing moment

Techmeme: Social graph vs. Interest

graph – The Age of Relevance

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Shifting Powers: Information, Recommendation, and/or Relevance

Data Recrafts Assumptions Around Territory and Contracts

Local: Collecting local audiences for local advertising, local media content, and geo-contracted structures of national content and ads….

Search-based local advertising: restructuring hyperlocal market…release of mechanical “need” for local content distribution over time (including education? Newspapers?)

New business combinations? Local creation? Local social tools/conversations?

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Data "Flow": Newer Need for two-way Infrastructures

• 2-way information on music, books, digital publishing, connected media

• Distribution to dozens or hundreds of distribution points in different formats

• Need to realign internal company processes – reinvent the pipes of the corporation – to maximize these assets– Not just digital workflow – digital decision-making

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Music as a Small-File Canary: What Happened?

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Source: RIAA figures; Digital Music Newshttp://infographicchart.posterous.com/chart-the-real-death-of-the-music-industry

Digital Now: Singles On DemandChanging Tides of US Music Sales

35Source: RIAA figures; Digital Music Newshttp://infographicchart.posterous.com/chart-the-real-death-of-the-music-industry

New Ecosystems Building to Integrate with

Re-Aggregators

Advertisers: Catching and Driving Change

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Source: Blackstone

TV: Tipping into Data, Relational, and Social?

Source: Silicon Valley Insider

Shifting Viewing Trends

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TV: What and Where?

Source: XBox

Dr. Gigi Johnson, Executive Director

Maremel InstituteEducation Programs in

Media and Cultural Change

@maremel626-603-2420

www.maremel.com