TemplateTemplate

Development of Oil and Gas Emissions for the Three State Air Quality Study (3SAQS)

Amnon Bar-Ilan, John Grant and Ralph MorrisENVIRON International Corporation

Zac AdelmanUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

3SAQS Workshop -- CSU Fort Collins, COMay 28, 2013

2

Purpose• To develop oil and gas emissions for the 2011 year and

the WRAP Phase III Basins plus other areas in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming to support Photochemical Grid Model (PGM) modeling

• To develop future year oil and gas emissions out to 2030 for PGM modeling

• To improve oil and gas emissions for uncertain source categories– For example, fracing, completions and shale oil and gas

• To improve oil and gas emissions for areas in CO, UT and WY outside of the WRAP Phase III Basins– For example, Paradox, Raton and Big Horn Basins

3

3SAQS Oil and Gas Emissions Approach• Near-Term – Develop 2011 and Future Year Oil and Gas

(O&G) Emissions by Fall 2013– Phase 1A: Estimate 2011 O&G Emissions Based on Readily

Available Data (Sep 2013)– Phase 1B: Estimate Future Year 2012-2030 O&G Emissions

Based on Readily Available Data (Nov 2013)• Longer-Term – Improve 2011 and Future Year O&G

Emissions (Oct 2013 - Apr 2014)– Phase 2A: Surveys and Other O&G Inventory Refinements– Phase 2B: Refine 2011 O&G Emission Estimates– Phase 3: Refined Future Year 2012-2030 O&G Emissions and

White Paper on Consideration for Improved FY Projections

4

Phase 1A: 2011 O&G Emissions • Develop 2011 O&G emissions following Phase III

methodology for:– D-J, Piceance, NSJ, Uinta, SWWY, PRB, Wind River Basins

• Start with CO/UT/WY 2011 state data (“permitted”)– CO APENs data (includes Raton Basin except NM)– UT data unknown (includes Paradox Basin)– WY data reported complete (includes Big Horn Basin)– EPA data for Tribes (minor source reporting?)

• Survey Based Sources starting with 2008 WestJump:– Develop 2008 to 2011 O&G activity scaling factors from IHS

database: spuds, well count, gas, condensate and oil production– Controls analysis similar to WestJumpAQMS (“light”)

5

Phase 1A: 2011 O&G Emissions (continued)• Colorado Phase III Basins (D-J, Piceance and NSJ)

– Forecast survey-based categories from 2008 WestJump based on O&G growth with “light” controls analysis

– Obtain 2011 APEN sources from CDPHE Includes Raton Basin

• Wyoming Phase III Basins (SWWY, Wind River and PRB)– Obtain 2011 O&G emissions from WDEQ that includes

all sources Includes Big Horn Basin

6

Phase 1A: 2011 O&G Emissions (concluded)

• Utah Phase III Basins (Uinta)– Obtain 2010 data from UT BLM Air Resource

Management Strategy (ARMS) and evaluate data/surveys

– Forecast survey-based categories from 2008 WJ– Obtain major and minor permitted source data from

UDEQ and EPA (Tribal Data) (includes Paradox)• Develop SMOKE-ready O&G emission inputs

– IDA files– Spatial surrogates– Speciation (existing Phase III based on 2006 surveys)

7

Phase 1B: Estimate FY 2012-2030 O&G EI• Basin-level projections five surrogate parameters

– Spuds, wells, oil, condensate and gas production• Develop three simple projection scenarios for each

activity surrogate and Basin– Low Development: Continued decline to some “floor” level– High Development: Either continued growth or pick-up of

growth following previous historic growth rate– Median Development: Either flat-lining or delayed growth after

some number of years• Project cooperators will decide on which of the three

scenarios to apply for each Basin for each parameter• Forecasts will be made for just one scenario

8

Phase 1B: FY 2012-2030 O&G EI (concluded)• “Light” controls analysis like WestJump to account for

changes in O&G emissions due to regulations– For example, State-specific regulations; EPA Subpart OOOO; EPA

NSPS for spark-ignited engines; EPA off-road diesel Tier standards

• SMOKE-ready inputs for one FY from 2012-2030

9

Phase 1A and 1B Scope of Work• Task 1 – IHS Database Analysis: Extract historical O&G production

data from HIS database for all Basins• Task 2 – Permit Data Analysis: Obtain and analyze permit data on

O&G emissions from CO, WY and UT• Task 3 – Controls Analysis: Analyze 2011 controls on O&G sources• Task 4 – Develop 2011 Emissions: Generate 2011 O&G emissions• Task 5 – Emissions Processing: Generate SMOKE-ready 2011 O&G

emissions• Task 6 – FY Projections: Develop FY growth for O&G activity• Task 7 – FY Controls Analysis: Develop control factors 2012-2030• Task 8: – FY Emissions Development: Develop 2012-2030 O&G

emissions for one growth scenario• Task 9 – FY Emissions Processing: Develop SMOKE-ready emissions

for one FY from 2012-2030

10

Phase 2A: Surveys and Inventory Refinements

• Survey Methodology:– Surveys targeted for information for specific uncertain

targeted source categories– Target a few large operators that dominate a Basin– Surveys may be equipment type and/or well type

rather than Basin-specific– Survey to be populated with defaults prior to

distribution– Operator outreach would be performed

11

Phase 2A: Surveys/Refinements (continued)

• Survey Targeted Source Categories:– Source categories not included in WRAP Phase III

For example, fracing/completion engines, produced water, compressor seals, etc.

– Gas composition analysis by well type, venting and flashing

– Source categories with high degree of uncertainty For example, well blowdowns, well workover rigs, initial well

completions, etc.

12

Phase 2A: Surveys/Refinements (concluded)

• O&G Inventory Refinements:– Develop VOC speciation profiles for glycol dehydrators

from state permit data (GLYCalc runs) Obtain GLYCalc speciated output from state

– Check availability of inventory data for pipelines currently missing in inventory

– Optional Task: Develop survey-based Raton and Paradox Basin O&G emissions Option 1: Survey for unpermitted sources Option 2: No survey, analysis of existing data Option 3: Use EPA default tool

13

Phase 2B: Refined 2011 O&G Emissions• Incorporate information from Phase 2A into Phase

1A 2011 O&G emissions• Update Williston and Great Plains Basins with

O&G emissions from BLM Montana/Dakotas study• Update O&G in Basins in Three-State area not

included in WRAP Phase III study or Phase 1A 2011 O&G inventory – Raton and Paradox Basins

14

Phase 3: Refined FY 2012-2030 O&G Projections• Develop White Paper on approaches for making refined

FY projections to be worked out with Cooperators before implementing any refinements in the projections• Refine Phase 3 Technical Approach

• Future year projections using refined 2011 O&G emission estimates developed in Phase 2B

• Incorporate information from surveys including updates to Phase 1B control factors– Update targeted source categories and regions

15

Phase 3: Refined FY Projections (concluded)• Refined O&G activity surrogate projections

– By Basin by category unit-level– Incorporate data from BLM on resource availability

Review available BLM RFDs/AQTSDs on FY O&G– Review trends forecasts for five surrogates (IHS)– Review other available information on limits of

production/wells/drilling For example, reservoir capacity, regulations, etc. Industry funded studies, states, USGS, etc.

– For well count projections, same split as current well type– Develop growth rates for potential new plays

For example Niobrara (D-J) and Mancos (SSJ) Shale Oil

16

Schedule for Task 2013-5 2011 & FY O&G EI

• Assumes a July 1, 2013 start date

• Phase 1A: 2011 O&G EI – Sep 2013• Phase 1B: 2012-2030 FY O&G EI – Nov 2013• Phase 2A: Surveys/Refinements – Dec 2013• Phase 2B: Refined 2011 O&G EI – Mar 2014• Phase 3: Refined 2012-2030 FY O&G EI – Apr 2014

2013 2014 Deliverable M J J A S O N D J F M A M J Phase 1A: Estimate 2011 O&G emissions based on readily available data Phase 1B: Estimate future year 2012-2030 O&G emissions based on readily available data

Phase 2A: Surveys and other inventory refinements Phase 2B: Refined 2011 emissions estimates Phase 3: Refined future year 2012-2030 annual emissions estimates