Desalination - Comparison-- Part 2012

7/27/2019 Desalination - Comparison-- Part 2012

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Technical Optimism as anAntidote to Water Scarcity:

Assessing the Desalination Experience in Spain Australia and Israel.

Alon TalBen Gurion University



“Neo-Malthusianism: Freshwater scarcity is pervasive and growing;

Demand is increasing geometrically Shortages will exacerbate future interstate

relations

The Great Debate



“Cornucopians”/Prometheans: Water is not finite.

Scarcity -an eminently soluble problem. technological, & institutional remedies available .

Collaboration/cooperation, not conflict –

the norm

The Great Debate



Vice president of the World BankSerageldin, 1995

UN Secretary General:Boutros Boutros-Ghali , 2000:

“The wars of the nextcentury will be about water.”

(Should We Believe It?)



Process of removing salt &/or other minerals

from H2O for:Human use (if nearly all salt removed)

Irrigation

Animal use

Desalination:

The Antidote?



Distillation – Multi-stage flash

– Multiple effect distillation

Membrane processes – Reverse osmosis

– Forward osmosis

• Solar Humidification (Solar still)

• Methane Hydrate Crystallization

Types of desalination



Fresh water <0.5 ppt (0.5 grams/L)

– Brackish water 5 – 30 parts per thousand

– Saline water 30 – 50 ppt

– Brine > 50 ppt

Typical Sea Water: 35 ppt

Dead Sea- 293: 9x h igher

Water’s Relative Salinity



Current worldwide desalination capacity: 31 mcm3 /day

Projected to grow to 62 million by 2015

Cost of increased capacity - estimated at $95 billion

Currently ~ 13,600 land-based plants, w/ productionof 100 m3 or more fresh water.

– 50% Middle East

– 20% Americas

– 13% Europe

– 12% Asia

Magnitude of Global

Desalination



Largest Desalination plant in the world:Jebel Ali Desalination Plant (Phase 2) in United Arab

Emirates:

Dual-purpose facility; MS Flash Distillation: 300 millionm3 /yr

Largest U.S. Facility: Tampa Bay

34.7 million m3

/yr-since Dec. 2007



40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

YEAR

c e n t / m 3

Ashkelon

Palmachim,

Haifa bayEilat

LARGE SWRO DESALINATION PLANTS

SMALL SWRO DESALINATION PLANTS

TrinidadLarnaca

Malta

DESALINATED SEA WATER COST RANGE

Source: ADAN



32

40

30

28

34

24

23

28

19

19

22

17

1615

16

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

c e n t / m 3

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

YEAR

O&M

ENERGY

CAPITAL

102

86

70 58

48

TYPICAL LARGE SCALE SWRO DESALINATIONWATER COSTS

Source: ADAN

E i l I



For 250 ML plant, CO2 production is 500,000 tons -

- equivalent to energy use of 120,000 new cars on the road or

Israel’s Ashkelon Plant: comparable to

energy of city with 55,000 people

Typical RO: one litre of petrol for

every 1000 litres of water (Dickie, 2007)

Environmental Impacts:

Energy



Short-Term Environmental

Impacts- Effects associated with construction of plant,

- Effects on sensitive coastal environments wheredesalination plants tend to be located.

Adelaide AustraliaNew Desal facility



Long-Term Environmental

Impacts - withdrawing large volumes of brackish water from anaquifer or seawater from the ocean

- discharging large volumes of highly concentrated brine(Cooley , et al., 2006).

- Impacts of the intake inlet on marine organisms, especially

larvae and small organisms which have key roles in marineecos stems (Dickie, 2007).



“Crucial that adequate environmental impactassessments conducted prior to construction ofdesalination plants to ensure that all potentialimpacts identified and the project has been

modified or included mitigation plans to addressthese impacts. “

Prevention:



“Without some means ofupstream scale inhibition,

RO membranes and their

low passages will foul due toscale, the precipitation of

sparingly soluble salts. “

Common examples of scale are calcium carbonate(CaCO3), calcium sulfate (CASO4), barium sulfate(BaSO4), &strontium sulfate (SrSO4).

ntiscalants



“the whole effluent is a mix of these pollutants, and thattheir combination may have additive effects on marine

life.”

ntiscalant – Impacts



“The toxicity of all antiscalants to aquatic life is very

low. Problems of eutrophication have been observednear the outlets of desalination plants in the Gulfwhere polyphosphates were used, as these are easilyhydrolyzed to orthophosphate, which is a majornutrient for primary producers. In contrast,policarbonic acids and phosphonates are stablesubstances with low biodegradation rates, which

results in relatively long residence times in coastalwaters.” Sabine Lattemann, Thomas Höpner, 2008, Environmental impact and impactassessment of seawater desalination, Desalination, 220, 1-15.



Lattimer &Hopner, 2008



esal Supplants Beach Space

Israel: Pervasive Water



{

Israel: Pervasive Water

Scarcity

1800

2000

3400

3000

2600

2200

1600

1800

1600

2000 2200

3400

3000

2600

1600

1800 AnnualEvaporation

mm

AnnualRainfallAverage

mm

50

100

200

400

300

500

600

Lack of 2000mm

1800

Anticipated Population Growth in Israel 1950- 2025

G i



Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics

p p

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1950 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025

year

P o p u l a t i o

n

( i n

t h o u s a n d s )

Anticipated Population Grwoth in the West Bank and Gaza

Streep 1948- 2015

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1948 1950 1960 1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2015

year

P o p u l a t i o n

( i n t h

o u s a n d s )

Source: UNCTAD (1994), US Census Bureau(accessed online 2008) and Dalen & Pedersen (2004).

GeometricGrowth inPopulation

Past and Present Projected Israeli Water Supply (in MCM)



Past and Present Projected Israeli Water Supply (in MCM)

Total annual natural production(recharge) 1509

Kinneret basins 559

Easternbasins 130

Negev Basin 70

Arava Basin

Western Galilee Aquifer - 139

Coastal Aquifer - 295

Mountain Aquifer 316Last 17 years 1170 mcm

Last 2 year 820 mcm

469

1355

285

130

291

Source: Israel Water Authority, 2008

2010: Driest Year in IsraeliHistory



Israeli Streams: Disappearing



Israeli Agriculture: Suffering



The Government Acts

April 4, 2002: Construction of 4 sea desal plants toproduce at least 250 million m2 of desalinized water

2012: amount is 340 mcms;

Quantities To Double by 2013

Development of Sea Water Desalination Plants




IsraeliDele

gation

IsraeliDelegation

IsraeliDele

gation– – –

Australia19

Australia19

Australia19-- - 22M

arch2007

22M

arch2007

22M

arch2007


0

36100

130 145 160

280305

405505

2 0 0 4

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

(125 )

(60 )

(100)

(120 )

Hadera

Palmachim

Ashdod

Ashkelon

Pre tendering stage/

Financial Agreement

Full production

Since 12/05

Construction phase. Production at 10/09

Shafdan

(100)Full production

Since 9/07

Pre tendering stage

IsraeliDele

gation

IsraeliDelegation

IsraeliDele

gation– – –

Australia19

Australia19

Australia19-- - 22M

arch2007

22M

arch2007

22M

arch2007

IsraeliDele

gation

IsraeliDelegation

IsraeliDele

gation– – –

Australia19

Australia19

Australia19-- - 22M

arch2007

22M

arch2007

22M

arch2007


0

36100

130 145 160

280305

405505

2 0 0 4

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

(125 )

(60 )

(100)

(120 )

Hadera

Palmachim

Ashdod

Ashkelon


Financial Agreement

Full production

Since 12/05


Shafdan


Since 9/07

Pre tendering stage

0

36100

130 145 160

280305

405505

2 0 0 4

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

(125 )

(60 )

(100)

(120 )

(125 )

(60 )

(100)

(120 )

Hadera

Palmachim

Ashdod

Ashkelon

Hadera

Palmachim

Ashdod

Ashkelon

Hadera

Palmachim

Ashdod

Ashkelon


Financial Agreement

Full production

Since 12/05


Shafdan


Since 9/07

Pre tendering stage

The End of Hydro Socialism



Jerusalem

Haifa

Tel Aviv

Sea of Galilee

Eilat

The End of Hydro Socialism

2012



2012

Water Negotiations:

Getting Beyond a“ Zero Sum Game”



Israeli Desal: Environmental Record

Siting:Contiguous to existing coastal infrastructures

(e.g., electricity plants) .

No net beach loss thus far.

Marine Discharges:

Monitor inert polyphosphate antiscalants in sea:

Marine water quality not suffered,;High iron content in residuals created mini-fishery.



Israeli Desal: Environmental Record

Energy:Ashkelon plant is powered by a self-generating energy supply

Other facilities rely on electricity from the Israeli power-grid, acoal-dominated, system.

Facility’s 60 mw/hour electricity demands creates greenhousegases at a level commensurate with a city of 45,000 people



Desalination

Defuses “Hydro Hysteria”

Already Israeli water supply increased 15%.

Should triple in 6 years.

Palestinians unwittingly enjoy water quality benefits.



Palestinian reservations”:- dependence,- costs to agriculture

- temporary nature

M k t I li ti



Market Implications

Institutional -- Privatization Private sector presence in local water

management (Israel & Gaza)

Bottled water changes perspectives. (Comoditization of Water)

Bottled water changes economic equation.

Markets require confidence/stability.

International desal consortiums might be 1st stage of regional water market.

Ethical implications trumped by peace dividend

Israel’s Environmental Movement: Generally Complacent



Israel’s Environmental Movement: Generally Complacent

Historic predilection towards technological optimism.

Peace Implications

Dire situation of local streams/rivers.

Regulatory record impressive.

Ambivalence: “Ironically in creating a stable source of pure



Ambivalence: Ironically, in creating a stable source of purewater, not subject to the climatic variations of our region,Israel has buffered itself to one source of vulnerability, butexposed itself to several others. With desalination, Israel isincreasingly dependent on water quality in the Mediterranean,the terms of decade-long contracts, and, above all, to energy

price variability…. Desalination allows Israel to avoid hydrological constraints

now, through a technological solution for meeting the inelasticdemands for potable water; but it may introduce future energyconstraints, as the world enters an era where limitations inenergy supply and carbon emissions reach the forefront of the

policy agenda.”(Yaakov Garb, 2010)



The Australian Desal Bonanza



Adaptive Management:“A way of responding to uncertainty by designing policy

measures which are provisional and incremental, subjectto subsequent modification in response to environmentalchange and other variables.”



The Case of Sydney*

Historically relies on capturing surface runoff inreservoir network.

80% of water needs met by

Warragamba Dam in the

Blue Mountains.

*Phoenix Lawhon Isler’s

Research duly acknowledged

Cli i I bili



Climatic Instability

Sydney's catchments: highly variable, periodicoccurrences of severe drought, often followed byflooding rains when drought breaks.

2002: Drought major concernFalling dam storage



Regulation Controls Demand Following 1990s, drought, Sydney Water's Drought

Response Management Plan 2002-2012 proposed;

Process with five restriction levels, triggers, andtargeted demand reductions;

Daily per capita water use in Sydney

falls from 506 L/person/ in 1990-91

to 342 L in 2004-05.

Decrease in demand due to:



Decrease in demand due to:

• stronger mandatory water restrictions;• recycling and education campaigns,

• major effort to fix leaking pipes in metro. area.

“Demand management and water conservation:Sydney uses same amount of water today as in1974, even though population grew by 1million.



The Mother of All Droughts2003- 2007: Worst Drought on Record



Sydney starts to get nervous

2004 , NSW Government’s Metropolitan Water

Plan examines supply/ demand projections.

Estimates: “if no actions taken, Sydney will face

a large deficit over the next 30 years.”

Shift from Demand Managemen



Shift from Demand Managemento Supply Side Straetgy

2004 Metropolitan Water Plan (MWP) , replaced theDrought Response Management Plan.

Commitment of $4 million for planning and design ofa desalination plant “to ensure that, if the droughtcontinues beyond another two years, a desalination

plant for Sydney could be constructed relativelyquickly and efficiently” (NSW, 2004).



Desal Takes the StageAs drought continued, mandatory restrictions imposedNSW Government under increasing pressure act.

July 2005, Premier Bob Carr announced plan for $2 billion desalination project

Location Kurnell, south of Sydney on Botany Bay.

However the project only to proceed ifdam levels continued to fall for anothertwo years.



Desal as a “Last Resort” Storage levels in Sydney’s dams -- slowly dropping since 2002at 41% of capacity .

Sydney had at least two years of supply left, in a worst-casescenario of no rain.

Water restrictions up to Level 2 reduced demand – with anaverage annual 12 per cent reduction since 2003 .

The introduction of Level 3 mandatory water restrictions inmid-2005 promised to reduce demand even further.



The Politics of Water Supply2005: Morris Iemma elected Premier of New South Wales

Announces: "Sydney needs a new source of clean drinkingwater, drought or no drought"

Clear shift from Carr’s promise to build a desalinationplant only if the drought worsened.

A 2005 Newspoll survey found 60 per cent of Sydneyresidents opposed decision to build a desalination plantwould rather see investments in water recycling & reuse

NSW introduces:



NSW introduces:“Adaptive Management”

new 'desalination readiness’ strategy meant maintainingcapacity to construct the desalination plant only when itis actually needed, rather than building it preemptively.

“Trigger Point” of 30% of storage capacity for the decisionto proceed with construction, only 26 months will berequired to complete a desalination plant (NSW, 2006).

Flexible management of existing sources under uncertainclimatic conditions reducing risk of investing billions ofdollars on infrastructure which may prove unnecessary.



Politics of Water:

February 2007, two months before NSW election, Premier Iemma vowshe won’t“ let Sydney run out of water”

Reveals that tenders had been called for the desalination plant project(Davies, 2007).

Dam levels approaching 30% trigger point of the desalination readiness

strategy, dipping to a low of 33.9% on 8th, 2007.



Technological InevitabilityLow point of 33.8% in Feb. turned out to be peak of drought

March 2007, rains return; storage levels rise to 57% by mid-July,

Contracts for the desalination plant project executed.



2010: Sydney Desal Plant at



2010: Sydney Desal Plant atKurnel Goes on line



The Political SpinDesalination plant rebranded as“essential part of Sydney's water supply infrastructure “

PR campaign equation:Dams+ Recycling + Desalination +Water Efficiency = Water4Life.

Sold as a Climate Change Adaptation “security” Measure



Results: 2012

Increased water rates, equivalent to average$110/yr annual increase/household until 2012.



Wind farm has been constructed to offset energy demands of the

Sydney desalination plant.

Critics:“this renewable energy capacity could be used to replace

existing coal-derived electricity rather than being directedentirely towards an unnecessary desalination plant.”

Environmental Results: 2012

Climate Change:



Climate Change:“Maladaptation”

Five pathways through which maladaptation arises;

Increase emissions of greenhouse gases Disproportionately burden on the most vulnerable

High opportunity costs

Reduce incentives to adapt

Set paths that limit the choices available.

(Barnett and O'Neill 2010)



Skepticism“Desalination distracts from the need to build adaptive capacity andresilience into urban water systems through an integrated, whole-of cycle

approach. It also reflects a misguided pursuit of elimination of climaterisk as a goal attainable through technical means rather than an ongoing process of adaptation of both technical and social systems to buildresilience. Desalination reinforces the institutional tendency to rely onsupply-side solutions, which in turn encourages wasteful consumption

habits, and reduces incentives to adapt water use behaviours. The studyconcludes that desalination plants may be doing more harm than good

for Australian cities by locking in unsustainable patterns of watermanagement and narrow climate adaptation trajectories.”

(Lawhon-Isler, 2010)

Th S i h D li ti E i



The Spanish Desalination Experience

Desal Pioneer



Desal PioneerMost veteran user of desalination in Europe

Produces 7% of world-wide capacity.

Canary Islands Plant – 40 years ago.

2000 -- 10,000 m3 /day facilityprovides drinking water

Jinamar. Gran Canaria

Mainland Strategy: Dams



Mainland Strategy: Dams • 1,300 dams compound 53,500 mcm in reservoirs

• Users; Agriculture• 38% of aggregate runoffpotential utilized

• Without the dams only9% of runoff captured.

Jinamar. Gran Canaria

The Desal Tipping Point

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fa/Alc%C3%A1ntara_Dam.jpg



The Desal Tipping Point

Mediterranean Climate –subject to Drought.

By 2008, water storage at only 46% of normal capacity.

Precipitation 40% below annual averages.

Emergency measures imposed:- 30 € fines for watering gardens.

- 3000 € fines for large pools.

Sh ld ’ h i d !



Shouldn’t have surprised anyone! Spain has highest per capita national water

consumption rates in Europe.

2/3s of water goes to agricultural operations.

Prices as low as 1/200th of actual operation costs

S i h D l th N t G ti



Spanish Desal: the Next Generation

New plant going on line in Barcelona.

250 mil. € Torrevieja project nearMadrid will be world’s 2nd largest

Government Policy Shifts



Government Policy Shifts

New Socialist government proposes ambitious plan

Already 950 desal plants making over 2 mcm/day(Enough to supply 10 million people.)

Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero

Environmental Critics:



Environmental Critics:

World Wildlife Fund :

“frenetic”, expensive /energy intensive policies.- coastal damage;- invasive species, e.g.,zebra mussels

Spanish Association for the Technological Treatment of Water:Millions of tons of carbon dioxide emissions from each plant

Political Critics:



Political Critics:

Mariano Rajoy, leader of the opposition :”I would transfer water anywhere. The desalinationplants emit CO2 and contribute to climate change.”

Internal Tensions:Between Catalonian and central Spanish governments

Conclusions



Conclusions

Desal’s emergence shares 2 elements:- extended droughts and anticipated shortages- reduced costs of producing fresh water.

Agriculture on Horizon



Agriculture on Horizon FAO study, 22% of water produced by Spanish desal

plants delivered to farmers. (Beltran, 2006).

1/3 of Israeli farmers surveyed envisioned new cropsallowing them to profit from additional desal

allocation -- 5 years ago. (Rassas, 2007)

53% of Australians envisioneddesalinated water as supplyingfuture irrigation of vegetables–twice domestic expectation.

(Dolnicar, 2006).



Politics: Desal: The 21st century’s dams?

Developing World: Probably



e e opi g o o a yLimited to Domestic Needs

WHO recommends 100 liters/person/day

55 cents m3 = 5.5 cents/person/day

Downsides Remain



Downsides Remain

Energy

Security

Cumulative discharges



Implications

Energy and water policy linked

Water Conservation Programs still Relevant

Asking the right questions



What are the levels of present and projected water shortages?

Alternative measures for reducing water demand?Is local agriculture operating at maximal efficiency?

What is “shadow price” of desalinated water?Alternative sources that can be produced for a cheaper price?

What measures can reduce carbon footprint?

Availability of Funding?Will privatized investment ensure that water is supplied to all?

g g q

Desalination: One Round for the Optimists



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Desalination - Comparison-- Part 2012

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