DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE - Park Hill School District · The Demographic Profile of the Park Hill School...
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DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE Prepared by the Business Services Department of the Park Hill School District Spring, 2017 2016-2017
Transcript of DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE - Park Hill School District · The Demographic Profile of the Park Hill School...
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
Prepared by the Business Services Department of the Park Hill School District
Spring, 2017
2016-2017
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2016-2017 Demographic Profile of the
Park Hill School District
March, 2017
2016-2017 Board of Education Members
President – Matt Pepper
Vice President – Janice Bolin
Treasurer – Bart Klein
Member – Todd Fane
Member – Karen Holland
Member – Boon Lee
Member – Susan Newburger
Prepared by the Business Services Department of the Park Hill School District
This document is available for download at
http://www.parkhill.k12.mo.us/ District Information - Data and Reports - Demographic Profile
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................................... 5 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................. 7
About The 2016-2017 Demographic Profile ..................................................................................................... 7 About The Park Hill School District .................................................................................................................. 8 District Geography ......................................................................................................................................... 8 District Municipalities ................................................................................................................................... 10 District Maps ................................................................................................................................................. 11
Map Of Area School Districts ............................................................................................................................... 12 Map Of Park Hill School District Municpalities .................................................................................................... 13 Aerial Overview Map Of Park Hill School District ................................................................................................ 14 Zip Codes Within Park Hill School District Boundaries ........................................................................................ 15 Map Of 2016-2017 Park Hill School District Boundaries ..................................................................................... 16
Demographic Comparisons – State of Missouri Public Schools ....................................................................... 17 Twenty-Five Largest School Districts in Missouri ................................................................................................. 17
Demographic Comparisons – Benchmark School Districts .............................................................................. 18 Benchmark Population Data ................................................................................................................................ 18 Benchmark Enrollment Data................................................................................................................................ 19 Benchmark Demographic Data ............................................................................................................................ 20 Benchmark School Finance Data ......................................................................................................................... 21
STUDENT ENROLLMENT .................................................................................................................................... 23 Historical Enrollment Data ............................................................................................................................. 23
Student Enrollment Table By Grade – 25-Year Historical (1993-2017) ............................................................... 24 K-12 Student Enrollment Chart– 25-Year Historical (1993-2017) ........................................................................ 25 Annual Growth In K-12 Student Enrollment – 25-Year Historical (1993-2017) ................................................... 26
Current Enrollment........................................................................................................................................ 27 Park Hill School District - District Enrollment (2016-2017) .................................................................................. 29 Park Hill School District Change In District Enrollment From Prior Year (2015-2016 to 2016-2017) .................. 30 Park Hill School District School Enrollment Distribution (2016-2017) ................................................................. 31 Park Hill School District Grade Level Distribution (2016-2017) ........................................................................... 32 Park Hill School District Class Size Analysis (2016-2017) ..................................................................................... 33 Park Hill School District Student Geographic Distribution ................................................................................... 34 Park Hill School District Student Enrollment Density .......................................................................................... 35 Park Hill School District Grade Level Distribution and Cohort Growth Since Kindergarten - 2016-2017 Enrollment ........................................................................................................................................................... 36 Park Hill School District Class of 2016 Cohort Growth –Kindergarten Through 12th Grade ................................ 37 Park Hill School District Diversity Of Enrollment (2016-2017) ............................................................................. 38 Park Hill School District Change in Diverse Populations (2008-2017) ................................................................. 39 Park Hill School District Diverse Populations By School (2016-2017) .................................................................. 40 Park Hill School District Growth In Free and Reduced Lunch Population* (2008-2017) ..................................... 41 Park Hill School District Free and Reduced Lunch Population By School* (2016-2017) ...................................... 42 Park Hill School District Mobility Data ................................................................................................................. 43
SUPPORTING DEMOGRAPHIC DATA .................................................................................................................. 47 Platte County Live Birthrates And Kindergarten Enrollments .......................................................................... 47
Collecting Birthrate Data ..................................................................................................................................... 47 Birthrate and Kindergarten Class Size Data ......................................................................................................... 47 Household Data ................................................................................................................................................... 48 New Households Within The School District – 10 Year History ........................................................................... 49 School-Age Children Within Park Hill School District Households ....................................................................... 50
FUTURE ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS ................................................................................................................. 51 Projection Methods ....................................................................................................................................... 51
Cohort Survival Method ....................................................................................................................................... 51
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Household Projections Method ........................................................................................................................... 55 Student Enrollment Projections ..................................................................................................................... 57
Accuracy of Projection Methods ......................................................................................................................... 57 Student Enrollment Projection Summary – Tables .............................................................................................. 58 Student Enrollment Projection Summary – Graph .............................................................................................. 61
Facility Planning ............................................................................................................................................ 62 Planning Criteria .................................................................................................................................................. 62 Long-Range Facility Plan ...................................................................................................................................... 65 School capacity Analysis ...................................................................................................................................... 66
Future District Growth Trends ....................................................................................................................... 68 Estimated Population of the Park Hill School District (2014) .............................................................................. 69 Estimated Rate of Change in Population (2014-2024)......................................................................................... 70 Estimated Children Under the Age of 5 (2014) .................................................................................................... 71 Estimated Change In Children Under the Age of 5 (2014-2024) ......................................................................... 72
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Demographic Profile of the Park Hill School District is produced annually to assist school district leaders
and planners in annual budgeting, review of district attendance boundaries, and long-range planning efforts.
The following reflects some of the significant data points found within the 2016-2017 Demographic Profile:
Estimated 2015 population of the school district is 65,700 with the populations within the municipality of
the city of Kansas City and the unincorporated portions of Platte County making up over 80% of the
population.
Based on 2016-2017 K-12 enrollment figures, Park Hill School District is the 18th largest school district in
Missouri. When pre-school enrollment is included, Park Hill School District is the 17th largest school district
in Missouri.
Of twelve suburban Kansas City, Missouri school districts . . .
o Park Hill has realized the fourth largest percentage population increase (+19.6%) since 2000
(behind Platte County R-3, Liberty, and Lee’s Summit).
o Park Hill ranks 4th in enrollment growth percentage since 1997, growing by 35.8%.
o Park Hill ranks third in estimated 2015 household income ($88,402) (behind Liberty and Lee’s
Summit) and second in 2015 estimated median home value ($196,264) (behind Lee’s Summit).
o Park Hill ranks first in estimated 2015 college graduates or professional degrees within the district
population (42%).
Park Hill's K-12 student enrollment for 2016-2017 is 11,287. This is a 1.6% increase from the prior year and
the thirty-third (33) consecutive year of enrollment growth.
Seven of thirteen grade levels in 2016-2017 are at their highest enrollment ever (1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 10, 11). Total
aggregate enrollment in elementary grades (K-5), and high school grades (9-12) are at their historical highs.
2016-2017 elementary school enrollments range from 441 (Renner) to 627 (Tiffany Ridge). The enrollment
difference between Park Hill High School (1,921) and Park Hill South (1,634) is 287.
The ethnic diversity of student enrollment continues to increase with diverse populations currently making
up 30.5% of the total student enrollment (an all-time high).
For the second consecutive year, the percentage of students qualifying for free and reduced lunch through
the National School Lunch Program has decreased. The value in 2014-2015 was 29.5% and is currently
27.9%.
The mobility of students is stable with nearly 10.2% of students being in the district less than one year, and
19.4% of students being within the district less than two years. This statistic excludes kindergarteners and
first graders.
For the six years prior, Kindergarten class sizes were at historical highs with the last year’s kindergarten
class of 852 at an all-time high. The 2016-2017 Kindergarten class is 793.
In 2016, 962 new households were constructed within the district, reflecting a single year all-time high.
Over half of these households are classified as multi-family homes.
Enrollment projections made from mathematical models estimates student enrollment to continue to
increase over the next decade, with total enrollment anticipated to be between 12,164 and 12,851 in 2026-
2027.
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INTRODUCTION
ABOUT THE 2016-2017 DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
The purpose of the 2016-2017 Demographic Profile of the Park Hill School District is to provide Park Hill
School District patrons, business leaders, civic organizations and other interested persons detailed
demographic and socioeconomic information about the Park Hill School District and Park Hill community.
The demographic profile includes historical information, current trends, and future enrollment
projections that assist district leaders in annual budgeting, review of district attendance boundaries, and
long-range planning efforts.
Enrollment data presented in this report was compiled from Park Hill School District core data and through historical figures maintained by the Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education. Data used in this report comes from multiple sources, including:
2010 decennial United States Census compiled by the Missouri Census Data Center
2010 decennial United States Census compiled by the United States Census Bureau
Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services
POPSTATS and AGS demographic data, provided by Decision Data Resources
Geographic Enterprises and Tactician Corporation
National Center for Education Statistics
NCSS statistical software
Missouri Spatial Data Information Service
This report is divided into four major parts: (1) Introduction (2) Student Enrollment, (3) Supporting
Demographic Data, and (4) Future Enrollment Projections.
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ABOUT THE PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT
Park Hill is a public school district, with pre‐kindergarten (pre-K) programs through grade 12. The district
includes ten elementary schools, three middle schools (including a sixth grade center), two high schools,
a day treatment school (Russell Jones Education Center), and a 40,000 square foot Early Childhood
Education Center (Gerner Family Early Education Center). Other support facilities include a district
Aquatic Center, Underground Support Services, and the District Office.
Park Hill provides comprehensive educational services for students in pre-K through grade 12. Specifically,
two district high schools provide comprehensive educational services for students in grades 9-12. Three
district middle schools (including a 6th grade center) provide comprehensive educational services for
students in grades 6-8. Ten district elementary schools provide comprehensive educational services for
students in grades K-5. The Russell Jones Education Center provides educational services in a day
treatment setting for K-12 students with special needs.
Park Hill School District’s (PHSD’s) Gerner Family Early Education Center (GFEEC) provides fee-based
educational services for pre-K students (ages 3-5), early childhood special education (ECSE) students, and
English Language Learners (ELL), Head Start, and supports Parents as Teachers (PAT).
The district also offers an array of community services including Adventure Club (Day Care), Community
Education and a district Aquatic facility.
DISTRICT GEOGRAPHY
The Park Hill School District, formally organized in
1951 under the provisions of Missouri’s School
Reorganization Statute of 1948, encompasses 71
square miles located in the southern third of Platte
County, located just north of downtown Kansas City,
Missouri. The Missouri River forms the southern and
western boundaries of the district and also delineates
the state line between Missouri and Kansas. The
northern boundary gerrymanders in stair-step fashion
from Northwest 76th Street and the Clay County line
to Northwest 120th Street, the northern most point of
the district. The northern boundary divides the Kansas
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City International Airport, with one of the three
airport terminals lying within district boundaries,
and the remaining portions of the airport lying
within the Platte County R-3 School District, the
neighboring district to the north.
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DISTRICT MUNICIPALITIES
Predominantly rural-oriented in the past, the district has steadily changed to a more suburban type district, blending both residential and
commercial growth. Approximately 43% of the school district lies within the city limits of Kansas City, Missouri. There are seven other incorporated
communities: Parkville, Lake Waukomis, Houston Lake, Northmoor, Riverside, Platte Woods, Weatherby Lake, and the unincorporated
communities of Waldron and Platte County. The 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census counts for each of these communities is listed in the table below. In
addition, estimates of the 2014 population are also provided.
Community 2000
Population 2010
Population
Estimated 2014 Population
% Growth 2000-2014
Projected 2024 Population
% Est. Growth 2014-2024
Parkville 4,189 5,554 6,283 50.0% 7,108 13.1%
Lake Waukomis 918 870 662 -27.9% 859 29.8%
Kansas City (within Park Hill District only) 33,270 37,100 39,667 19.2% 41,544 4.7%
Houston Lake 284 235 190 -33.1% 209 10.0%
Northmoor 399 325 226 -43.4% 267 18.1%
Riverside 2,979 2,937 3,361 12.8% 3,923 16.7%
Platte Woods 474 385 736 55.3% 848 15.2%
Unincorporated Platte County (estimated) 9,899 13,132 12,956 30.9% 18,022 39.1%
Weatherby Lake 1,873 1,723 1,619 -13.6% 1,878 16.0%
Park Hill School District 54,285 62,261 65,700 21.0% 74,658 13.6%
* Source U.S. Census and ESRI Demographics Data Projected 2024
Estimated 2014 population analysis shows a 21.0% population growth in the Park Hill School District since 2000. This is strong, and nearly twice
the national population growth rate during the last decade. Over 60% of the school district's population resides in the city of Kansas City and the
unincorporated portion of the school district.
Homes that are presently being built range from $150,000 to more than $1,000,000, with the median home value of $196,264.
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DISTRICT MAPS
The following pages include the following maps of the Park Hill School District: Map of Area School Districts. This map shows school districts that surround the Park Hill School District on both sides of the state line and the interstates. Map of Park Hill School District Municipalities. This map shows the geography of the eight municipalities included within the Park Hill School District. Unincorporated sections of Platte County within the district boundaries are also included. Aerial Overview Map of Park Hill School District. This map shows the aerial geography of the municipalities included within the Park Hill School District. Unincorporated sections of Platte County within the district boundaries are also included. Zip Codes Within Park Hill School District Boundaries. This map overlays the United States Postal Service Zip Codes within the Park Hill School District.
Map of 2016-2017 Park Hill School District Boundaries. This map shows the Park Hill School District
school boundaries as of April, 2012 when the boundaries were last changed.
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MAP OF AREA SCHOOL DISTRICTS
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MAP OF PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT MUNICPALITIES
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AERIAL OVERVIEW MAP OF PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT
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ZIP CODES WITHIN PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT BOUNDARIES
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MAP OF 2016-2017 PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT BOUNDARIES
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DEMOGRAPHIC COMPARISONS – STATE OF MISSOURI PUBLIC SCHOOLS
According to the Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE) data collection, the state of Missouri educates 883,711 students within 561 school districts and charter schools. The Park Hill school district currently ranks as the 18th largest school district in the state with a 2016-2017 official K-12 enrollment of 11,283. When preschool enrollment is included, Park Hill ranks as the 17th largest school district in the state with a Pre-K-12 enrollment of 11,668.
TWENTY-FIVE LARGEST SCHOOL DISTRICTS IN MISSOURI
Rank School District 2016-2017
K-12 Enrollment 2016-2017
Pre-K-12 Enrollment
1 Springfield R-XII (039-141) 24,972 25,785
2 St. Louis City (115-115) 21,754 23,854
3 Rockwood R-VI (096-091) 20,946 21,739
4 North Kansas City 74 (024-093) 19,604 20,202
5 Ft. Zumwalt R-II (092-087) 17,985 18,320
6 Lee's Summit R-VII (048-071) 17,908 18,254
7 Hazelwood (096-088) 17,603 18,093
8 Parkway C-2 (096-095) 17,436 17,805
9 Columbia 93 (010-093) 17,334 18,122
10 Francis Howell R-III (092-088) 17,068 17,986
11 Wentzville R-IV (092-089) 15,984 16,382
12 Blue Springs R-IV (048-068) 14,429 14,620
13 Independence 30 (048-077) 14,255 15,162
14 Kansas City 33 (048-078) 14,240 15,343
15 Liberty 53 (024-090) 12,177 12,453
16 Fox C-6 (050-012) 11,343 11,486
17 St. Joseph (011-082) 11,330 11,758
18 Park Hill (083-005) 11,283 11,668
19 Ferguson-Florissant R-II (096-089) 10,491 10,837
20 Mehlville R-IX (096-094) 10,253 10,548
21 Raytown C-2 (048-073) 8,870 9,418
22 Jefferson City (026-006) 8,762 8,982
23 Joplin Schools (049-148) 7,612 7,835
24 Lindbergh Schools (096-093) 6,686 6,686
25 Ritenour (096-110) 6,290 6,498
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DEMOGRAPHIC COMPARISONS – BENCHMARK SCHOOL DISTRICTS
The Park Hill School District utilizes eleven other suburban Kansas City, Missouri school districts to benchmark statistics throughout the organization, including Academic Services (i.e. student achievement scores), Human Resources (i.e. employee compensation), and Business Services (i.e. tax rates). The following tables compare Park Hill to these benchmark districts in various demographic categories. This data is collected by the Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education and the U.S. Census Bureau.
BENCHMARK POPULATION DATA
This table provides values and relative ranks for various population data. Values ranked the highest in the group are highlighted in green.
School District Area Square
Miles
Total Population
(2000)
Est. Total Population
(2015)
% Population Growth 2000-
2015
2015 Estimated
Percent Population 17 years old or
younger
Blue Springs R-IV (048-068) 56.6 (7) 66,230 (4) 77,485 (4) 17.0% (5) 18.6% (5)
Center 58 (048-080) 11.6 (12) 26,770 (10) 25,233 (11) -5.7% (12) 13.7% (12)
Fort Osage R-I (048-066) 118.4 (1) 23,160 (11) 25,251 (10) 9.0% (7) 19.2% (3)
Grandview C-4 (048-074) 38.2 (9) 31,240 (9) 32,407 (9) 3.7% (8) 17.1% (8)
Hickman Mills C-1 (048-072) 30.4 (11) 49,315 (7) 47,677 (8) -3.3% (11) 19.1% (4)
Independence 30 (048-077) 42.7 (8) 91,992 (2) 94,979 (2) 3.2% (9) 16.5% (10)
Lee's Summit R-VII (048-071) 116.4 (2) 72,870 (3) 94,952 (3) 30.3% (3) 19.4% (2)
Liberty 53 (024-090) 82.6 (5) 34,285 (8) 56,570 (7) 65.0% (2) 21.8% (1)
North Kansas City 74 (024-093) 87.4 (4) 112,920 (1) 127,026 (1) 12.5% (6) 17.1% (8)
Park Hill (083-005) 73.2 (6) 54,285 (6) 64,938 (5) 19.6% (4) 17.4% (7)
Platte Co. R-III (083-003) 99.4 (3) 13,520 (12) 24,048 (12) 77.9% (1) 17.6% (6)
Raytown C-2 (048-073) 32.1 (10) 59,265 (5) 58,892 (6) -0.6% (10) 16.5% (10)
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BENCHMARK ENROLLMENT DATA
The table below provides values and relative ranks for school enrollment data. Values ranked the highest in the group are highlighted in green.
School District
1996-1997 School
Enrollment
2016-2017 School
Enrollment
% Enrollment Growth 1997-
2017 (20 Years)
2010 Census--Percentage of
School-Age Children Living in the District Who Attend
District Schools 2010
Est 2015--Percentage of
School-Age Children Living in the District Who Attend
District Schools 2015
Blue Springs R-IV (048-068) 12,393 (3) 14,429 (3) 16.4% (7) 91.8% (1) 98.7% (2)
Center 58 (048-080) 2,557 (11) 2,482 (12) -2.9% (11) 49.5% (12) 68.0% (12)
Fort Osage R-I (048-066) 4,917 (9) 4,828 (9) -1.8% (9) 66.9% (4) 100.9% (1)
Grandview C-4 (048-074) 4,369 (10) 4,282 (10) -2.0% (10) 50.7% (10) 73.0% (10)
Hickman Mills C-1 (048-072) 7,196 (7) 5,764 (8) -19.9% (12) 50.4% (11) 68.6% (11)
Independence 30 (048-077) 11,514 (4) 14,255 (4) 23.8% (5) 62.6% (7) 89.8% (5)
Lee's Summit R-VII (048-071) 12,421 (2) 17,908 (2) 44.2% (3) 67.1% (3) 79.3% (9)
Liberty 53 (024-090) 5,621 (8) 12,177 (5) 116.6% (1) 65.7% (5) 93.8% (3)
North Kansas City 74 (024-093) 16,684 (1) 19,604 (1) 17.5% (6) 62.0% (8) 88.5% (8)
Park Hill (083-005) 8,309 (5) 11,283 (6) 35.8% (4) 88.0% (2) 92.9% (4)
Platte Co. R-III (083-003) 1,886 (12) 4,004 (11) 112.3% (2) 60.8% (9) 89.6% (6)
Raytown C-2 (048-073) 8,273 (6) 8,870 (7) 7.2% (8) 63.1% (6) 89.5% (7)
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BENCHMARK DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
The following table provides values and relative ranks for household data. Values ranked the highest in the group are highlighted in green.
School District
2015 Est. Average
Household Size
2015 Est. Average
Household Income
2015 Estimated
College Graduate or Professional
Degree
2015 Estimated Median Home
Value
2015 Estimated
Percentage of
Households in Poverty
Blue Springs R-IV (048-068) 2.6 (4) $83,101 (4) 32.0% (6) $164,311 (5) 7.0% (9)
Center 58 (048-080) 2.1 (12) $57,053 (10) 34.0% (5) $128,077 (9) 12.0% (5)
Fort Osage R-I (048-066) 2.8 (1) $64,845 (7) 14.0% (12) $130,681 (8) 11.0% (6)
Grandview C-4 (048-074) 2.5 (6) $60,855 (8) 28.0% (7) $160,831 (6) 14.0% (3)
Hickman Mills C-1 (048-072) 2.5 (5) $49,701 (12) 18.0% (10) $101,436 (11) 18.0% (1)
Independence 30 (048-077) 2.3 (11) $51,619 (11) 15.0% (11) $93,735 (12) 16.0% (2)
Lee's Summit R-VII (048-071) 2.6 (3) $88,512 (2) 40.0% (2) $197,546 (1) 6.0% (11)
Liberty 53 (024-090) 2.7 (2) $91,150 (1) 40.0% (2) $166,332 (4) 7.0% (9)
North Kansas City 74 (024-093) 2.4 (8) $67,638 (6) 27.0% (8) $138,313 (7) 8.0% (7)
Park Hill (083-005) 2.5 (6) $88,402 (3) 42.0% (1) $196,264 (2) 8.0% (7)
Platte Co. R-III (083-003) 2.3 (10) $76,905 (5) 36.0% (4) $194,960 (3) 6.0% (11)
Raytown C-2 (048-073) 2.4 (9) $57,725 (9) 23.0% (9) $106,365 (10) 13.0% (4)
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BENCHMARK SCHOOL FINANCE DATA
The table below provides values and relative ranks for school finance data. Values ranked the highest in the group are highlighted in green (except where noted).
School District
2006-2007 Total Tax Levy (Ranked Low
to High)
2016-2017 Total Tax Levy
(Ranked Low to High)
10-Year Change in Tax Levy (Ranked Low to High)
Annual Property Tax Burden for
Home Owner (Home Value
$196,264)
Current Expenditures Per Average
Daily Attendance 2015-2016
Blue Springs R-IV (048-068) $5.3893 (6) $5.7286 (4) $0.3393 (3) $2,136 (4) $9,929 (10)
Center 58 (048-080) $5.1951 (5) $6.7828 (12) $1.5877 (11) $2,529 (12) $13,240 (1)
Fort Osage R-I (048-066) $4.9591 (3) $5.7000 (3) $0.7409 (6) $2,126 (3) $9,841 (11)
Grandview C-4 (048-074) $5.4500 (7) $5.8047 (5) $0.3547 (4) $2,165 (5) $11,224 (3)
Hickman Mills C-1 (048-072) $5.5400 (8) $6.5575 (11) $1.0175 (10) $2,445 (11) $11,671 (2)
Independence 30 (048-077) $5.0841 (4) $5.9130 (6) $0.8289 (9) $2,205 (6) $10,164 (8)
Lee's Summit R-VII (048-071) $5.8919 (12) $5.9957 (7) $0.1038 (2) $2,236 (7) $10,462 (5)
Liberty 53 (024-090) $5.6400 (11) $6.4550 (10) $0.815 (8) $2,407 (10) $9,617 (12)
North Kansas City 74 (024-093) $5.6198 (10) $6.4284 (9) $0.8086 (7) $2,397 (9) $10,327 (6)
Park Hill (083-005) $5.6029 (9) $5.5290 (2) -$0.0739 (1) $2,062 (2) $10,820 (4)
Platte Co. R-III (083-003) $4.3705 (1) $5.0439 (1) $0.6734 (5) $1,881 (1) $10,002 (9)
Raytown C-2 (048-073) $4.6456 (2) $6.3200 (8) $1.6744 (12) $2,357 (8) $10,186 (7)
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STUDENT ENROLLMENT
In this section of the 2016-2017 Demographic Profile of the Park Hill School District historical enrollment data is depicted in various tables and graphs. In addition, data on district housing and birthrates are shared in order to establish trends relevant to enrollment growth in future years.
HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT DATA
This section includes the following tables, charts, and graphs: Student Enrollment Table By Grade – 25-Year Historical (1993-2017). This table summarizes official enrollment in the district over the last twenty-five years. Student Enrollment Chart By Grade – 25-Year Historical (1993-2017). This graph represents enrollment and enrollment growth over the last twenty-five years. Annual Growth in Student Enrollment – 25-Year Historical (1993-2017). This graph represents enrollment growth (number of students) over the last twenty-five years.
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STUDENT ENROLLMENT TABLE BY GRADE – 25-YEAR HISTORICAL (1993-2017)
* highlighted cells (orange) denote the largest historical enrollments for each grade level (K, 1, 2, etc.) and grade spans (Elementary, Middle, High School).
Year K 1 2 3 4 5 K-5 Total 6 7 8
Middle
School
Total
9 10 11 12High School
TotalGrand Total
1992-1993 589 622 618 610 577 538 3,560 643 585 633 1,861 590 636 508 520 2,254 7,675
1993-1994 642 601 621 619 647 595 3,725 572 671 628 1,871 639 585 574 519 2,317 7,913
1994-1995 586 659 627 629 649 667 3,817 615 575 671 1,861 631 628 561 552 2,372 8,050
1995-1996 623 630 695 621 646 636 3,851 684 605 586 1,875 687 633 631 543 2,494 8,220
1996-1997 634 652 635 694 599 661 3,875 635 709 595 1,939 612 705 608 579 2,504 8,318
1997-1998 667 670 651 634 713 603 3,938 673 663 705 2,041 617 627 692 557 2,493 8,472
1998-1999 646 694 679 660 635 739 4,053 642 697 665 2,004 753 624 629 589 2,595 8,652
1999-2000 658 686 690 730 690 664 4,118 746 653 722 2,121 710 742 611 556 2,619 8,858
2000-2001 609 669 693 708 737 698 4,114 674 770 661 2,105 758 724 748 555 2,785 9,004
2001-2002 640 659 685 692 726 750 4,152 738 685 799 2,222 700 737 694 666 2,797 9,171
2002-2003 719 679 682 686 700 745 4,211 771 753 684 2,208 829 707 738 650 2,924 9,343
2003-2004 688 747 704 656 708 703 4,206 775 788 765 2,328 719 814 684 709 2,926 9,460
2004-2005 713 670 740 718 659 696 4,196 726 770 799 2,295 806 709 804 688 3,007 9,498
2005-2006 676 727 695 742 724 687 4,251 722 755 796 2,273 839 798 692 795 3,124 9,648
2006-2007 706 711 721 716 742 747 4,343 739 763 787 2,289 842 828 765 698 3,133 9,765
2007-2008 704 740 721 748 742 755 4,410 765 767 759 2,291 826 810 796 746 3,178 9,879
2008-2009 727 745 761 750 773 758 4,514 788 799 783 2,370 822 801 798 801 3,222 10,106
2009-2010 705 766 764 787 760 794 4,576 762 781 805 2,348 831 812 798 794 3,235 10,159
2010-2011 745 713 776 786 780 768 4,568 784 787 803 2,374 855 813 793 796 3,257 10,199
2011-2012 753 740 725 793 793 790 4,594 781 820 787 2,388 858 847 811 801 3,317 10,299
2012-2013 771 793 769 747 824 805 4,709 810 825 824 2,459 830 843 817 790 3,280 10,448
2013-2014 789 794 788 779 755 820 4,725 817 849 812 2,478 864 820 799 818 3,301 10,504
2014-2015 822 813 831 795 795 774 4,830 846 837 867 2,550 851 850 831 801 3,333 10,713
2015-2016 852 865 836 869 826 792 5,040 817 905 867 2,589 950 862 835 835 3,482 11,111
2016-2017 793 871 879 851 884 869 5,147 809 870 895 2,574 930 935 870 831 3,566 11,287
25
K-12 STUDENT ENROLLMENT CHART– 25-YEAR HISTORICAL (1993-2017)
7,675
8,050 8,318
8,652
9,004
9,343 9,498
9,765
10,106 10,199 10,448
10,713
11,287
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000K
-12
Stu
de
nt
Enro
llmen
t
26
ANNUAL GROWTH IN K-12 STUDENT ENROLLMENT – 25-YEAR HISTORICAL (1993-2017)
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Incr
ease
in K
-12
En
rollm
ent
Largest Single Year K-12 Growth in District History
27
CURRENT ENROLLMENT
This section of the 2016-2017 Demographic Profile of the Park Hill School District shows data collected on the state’s official student count day and is reflected in various tables, charts and graphs. The Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education has established the annual official enrollment count as the number of students in grades K-12 enrolled on the last Wednesday in September of each year. A second enrollment count is taken in January of each year by all Missouri school districts but is not a part of this report.
The student enrollment value should not be confused with the rate of pupil attendance or average daily attendance (ADA), which is the total hours of student attendance divided by the total hours school is in session. In addition, the state utilizes a third measure to calculate student population – membership. Membership totals are used to differentiate full-time students from part-time. The membership of a student is reported as a full-time equivalency (FTE), such that a student enrolled the last Wednesday of September for 6 hours of a 6 hour day would be reported as a 1.00 FTE for September membership. If that same student was enrolled for 2 hours of a 6 hour day the last Wednesday of January, the January membership would be 0.33 FTE.
For the purposes of this report and the projections made at the conclusion of the report, the September enrollment count has been utilized as the benchmark for comparison from year to year. Any exceptions to this are highlighted throughout the report.
This section includes the following tables, charts, and graphs:
Park Hill School District - District Enrollment (2016-2017). This table summarizes enrollment by school and by grade level.
Park Hill School District Change in District Enrollment from Prior Year (2015-2016 to 2016-2017). This table summarizes where the changes in enrollment occurred (by school and grade level) over the last year.
Park Hill School District School Enrollment Distribution (2016-2017). This graph summarizes enrollment by school.
Park Hill School District Grade Level Distribution (2016-2017). This graph summarizes enrollment by grade level.
Park Hill School District Class Size Analysis (2016-2017). This table summarizes enrollment by grade level and compares these enrollments to benchmark years.
Park Hill School District Student Geographic Distribution. This map plots all students from the 2013-2014 school year on a district map. This information has not been updated to reflect 2016-2017 geographic distribution.
28
Park Hill School District Student Enrollment Density. This shows the density of students enrolled from the 2013-14 school year on a district map. This information has not been updated to reflect 2016-2017 enrollment density.
Park Hill School District Grade Level Distribution and Cohort Growth Since Kindergarten - 2016-2017 Enrollment. This graph represents a key concept in projecting student enrollment – “cohort growth”. This graph shows current enrollment by grade level, and also includes the size of the same cohort when they were kindergarteners. As depicted in the graph, Park Hill School District classes generally increase in size as they pass from grade level to grade level.
Park Hill School District Class of 2016 Cohort Growth – Kindergarten Through 12th Grade. The graph shows the cohort change over the last 13 years of the current graduating class, beginning when they were kindergarteners.
Park Hill School District Diversity of Enrollment (2016-2017). This pie chart represents the diversity of the 2016-2017 student population.
Park Hill School District Change in Diverse Populations (2007-2016). This graph and corresponding data table shows the increase of diverse populations over the last ten years.
Park Hill School District Diverse Populations by School (2016-2017). This graph illustrates the percentage of non-white students within each school.
Diverse Populations by School District (2006-2015). This graph shows the change in minority enrollment in 12 benchmark school districts in the greater Kansas City area over the last 10 years.
Park Hill School District Growth in Free and Reduced Lunch Population (2008-2017). Monitoring students who receive a free and reduced lunch is a common way for schools and districts to reflect the socioeconomic status of the students and families in the district. This graph shows the increases in the free and reduced population over the last ten years. For the purpose of this annual report and to be consistent with state reporting, the district has utilized the official January membership count to compare free and reduced values.
Park Hill School District Free and Reduced Lunch Population by School (2016-2017). This graph illustrates the percentage of free and reduced students within each school. For the purposes of this annual report, the district has utilized the official January count to compare free and reduced values.
29
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT - DISTRICT ENROLLMENT (2016-2017)
Elementary Schools
Grade Chinn
English
Landing Graden Hawthorn
Line
Creek
Prairie
Point Renner Southeast
Tiffany
Ridge
Union
Chapel
Russell
Jones Total
K 72 80 71 92 80 63 76 83 98 77 1 793
1 80 93 99 89 94 79 69 78 102 82 6 871*
2 87 95 89 100 82 67 72 76 127 82 2 879*
3 72 74 103 93 102 87 72 79 84 82 3 851
4 85 85 96 81 78 81 84 90 116 86 2 884*
5 79 100 100 91 74 88 68 65 100 100 4 869*
TOTAL 475 527 558 546 510 465 441 471 627 509 18 5,147*
Middle Schools High Schools
Grade Plaza Congress Lakeview
Russell
Jones Total Grade
Park Hill
High School
Park Hill
South
Russell
Jones TOTAL
6 798 11 809 9 499 428 3 930
7 472 394 4 870 10 501 434 - 935*
8 491 401 3 895* 11 482 383 5 870*
TOTAL 798 963 795 18 2,574 12 439 389 3 831
TOTAL 1,921 1,634 11 3,566
District Total 11,287*
Russell Jones Education Center Change From from Prior Year +176
1.58%
Grade
Russell
Jones
K-12 47
* Largest cohorts in district history
Total
(included in
the above
numbers)
30
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT CHANGE IN DISTRICT ENROLLMENT FROM PRIOR YEAR (2015-2016 TO 2016-2017)
Elementary Schools
Grade Chinn
English
Landing Graden Hawthorn
Line
Creek
Prairie
Point Renner Southeast
Tiffany
Ridge
Union
Chapel
Russell
Jones TOTAL
0 -14 -18 -26 +11 -15 -10 +2 +0 -5 +16 +0 -59
1 -15 -5 +10 -5 +15 +10 -8 +5 -10 +5 +4 +6
2 +6 +23 -4 +8 -12 -21 +6 -9 +37 +9 +0 +43
3 -26 -8 -1 +10 +17 +8 -1 -2 -22 +8 -1 -18
4 +6 -23 +3 -3 +6 -7 +19 +27 +29 +3 -2 +58
5 +3 +20 +15 +2 +0 +7 +11 -5 +17 +10 -3 +77
TOTAL -40 -11 -3 +23 +11 -13 +29 +16 +46 +51 -2 +107
Middle Schools High School
Grade Plaza Congress Lakeview Russell Jones TOTAL Grade
Park Hill
High School
Park Hill
South
Russell
Jones TOTAL
6 -14 +6 -8 9 -13 -9 +2 -20
7 -17 -17 -1 -35 10 +28 +52 -7 +73
8 +40 -14 +2 +28 11 +38 -6 +3 +35
TOTAL -14 +23 -31 +7 -15 12 -4 +0 +0 -4
TOTAL +49 +37 -2 +84
Day School
PARK HILL
GRADEDAY SCHOOL District Total
K-12 +3
Total (included in the
above numbers)
+176
31
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT SCHOOL ENROLLMENT DISTRIBUTION (2016-2017)
475 527
558 546 510
465 441 471
627
509
798
963
795
1,921
1,634
47
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
32
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT GRADE LEVEL DISTRIBUTION (2016-2017)
* denotes the largest cohorts in this grade level
793
871 * 879 *851
884 *869 *
809
870 895 *
930 935 *
870 *
831
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
33
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT CLASS SIZE ANALYSIS (2016-2017)
Class 2016-2017 Largest Enrollment For This Class
Kindergarten 852 2015-2016
1st Grade 871 2016-2017
2nd Grade 879 2016-2017
3rd Grade 869 2015-2016
4th Grade 826 2016-2017
5th Grade 869 2016-2017
Elementary School (K-5) Total 5,147 2016-2017
6th Grade 846 2014-2015
7th Grade 905 2015-2016
8th Grade 895 2016-2017
Middle School (6-8) Total 2,589 2015-2016
9th Grade 950 2015-2016
10th Grade 935 2016-2017
11th Grade 870 2016-2017
12th Grade 835 2015-2016
High School (9-12) Total 3,566 2016-2017
Grand Total 11,287 2016-2017
Annual Increase/ Decrease of Students 398 2015-2016
% of Increase/ Decrease 4.7% 1992-1993
34
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT STUDENT GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION
35
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT STUDENT ENROLLMENT DENSITY
36
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT GRADE LEVEL DISTRIBUTION AND COHORT GROWTH SINCE KINDERGARTEN - 2016-2017 ENROLLMENT
-150
50
250
450
650
850
1,050
1,250
K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Enrollment as Kindergarden Current Enrollment
For example, the current class of 870 7th graders began as a class of Kindergarteners (in 2009-2010) as a class of 705.
37
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT CLASS OF 2016 COHORT GROWTH –KINDERGARTEN THROUGH 12TH GRADE
713
676
706 704727
705
745 753771
789
822
852831
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2004-2005(K)
2005-2006(1)
2006-2007(2)
2007-2008(3)
2008-2009(4)
2009-2010(5)
2010-2011(6)
2011-2012(7)
2012-2013(8)
2013-2014(9)
2014-2015(10)
2015-2016(11)
2016-2017(12)
38
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT DIVERSITY OF ENROLLMENT (2016-2017)
White69.5%
African American11.7%
Hispanic9.3%
Asian3.2%
Native American0.4%
Pacific Islander1.4%
Multi Racial4.5%
39
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT CHANGE IN DIVERSE POPULATIONS (2008-2017)
2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017
Pacific Islander 90 105 122 115 130 152 155
Native American 75 84 77 60 56 54 49 49 47 49
Asian 397 440 457 351 340 332 339 347 351 360
Multi Racial 355 416 441 466 493 523 510
Hispanic 595 621 667 875 892 943 992 1,001 1,019 1,053
African American 987 1,082 1,143 1,071 1,104 1,088 1,074 1,145 1,283 1,318
White 7,825 7,879 7,815 7,397 7,386 7,468 7,469 7,548 7,736 7,842
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
40
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT DIVERSE POPULATIONS BY SCHOOL (2016-2017)
42.1%
27.3%
18.6%
22.2%
37.3%
28.6%
39.2%38.2%
43.7%
13.8%
30.1%
32.3%
27.4%
35.5%
23.9%
31.9%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
% M
ino
rity
Po
pu
lati
on
s o
f 2
01
6-2
01
7 E
nro
llmen
t
District Average 30.5%
41
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT GROWTH IN FREE AND REDUCED LUNCH POPULATION* (2008-2017)
* Official Free and Reduced Lunch Counts are based on January Membership Counts
20.8%
22.0%
23.8%
25.1%
27.2%
28.6%29.1%
29.7%28.9%
27.9%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017
% o
f D
istr
ict
Mem
ber
ship
Qu
alif
yin
g fo
r Fr
ee a
nd
Red
uce
d L
un
ch
42
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT FREE AND REDUCED LUNCH POPULATION BY SCHOOL* (2016-2017)
* Official Free and Reduced Lunch Counts are based on January Membership Counts
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
District Average 27.9%
43
PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT MOBILITY DATA
One of the major challenges facing schools is student mobility. A student is considered mobile when they transfer schools. Unfortunately, mobility has been demonstrated to be associated with many negative outcomes, including low achievement, grade retention, and dropping out. Students who are in a school or district for a relatively short time do not have as great of an opportunity to benefit from consistent educational programming. Park Hill School District, like any district, is forced to deal with issues related to mobility. While the educational programming that students receive may not differ significantly when transferring from one building to the next within the district, the same cannot be assumed for transferring in from other districts. The following charts display student mobility rates for Park Hill School District, as defined by the percentage of students who are new to the district. “One year mobility” is the percentage of current students who were not in Park Hill last year. More specifically, these students were here on the 2016-2017 September count day but not here on the 2015-2016 September count day. “Two year mobility” is the percentage of current students who were not in the Park Hill School District two years ago, based on them not being in the district on the past two years’ count days. Kindergarten students are not included in the one year student mobility rates. Likewise, kindergarten and first grade students are not included in the two year student mobility calculation.
This section of the 2016-2017 Demographic Profile of the Park Hill School District depicts seven graphs showing student mobility rates for Park Hill School District, as defined by the percentage of students who are new to the Park Hill School District.
District Mobility (2016-2017). This graph shows the number of students new to the district for the last two school years.
Mobility By Grade Span (2016-2017). This graph disaggregates the mobility data by grade span for the last two school years.
Mobility By Ethnicity (2016-2017). This graph disaggregates the mobility data by ethnicity for the last two school years.
Mobility By Free and Reduced Lunch Status (2016-2017). This graph disaggregates the mobility data by free and reduced lunch status for the 2013-2014 school year.
Mobility By School (2016-2017). This graph disaggregates the mobility data by school.
Continuous Park Hill Enrollment Since Kindergarten (2016-2017). This graph shows the number of students in each grade level that have been Park Hill School District students for their entire school careers.
10 Year Historical Mobility of Students. This graph shows the 1 and 2 year mobility rate over the last 10 years.
44
DISTRICT MOBILITY (2016-2017)
District Mobility Mobility by Grade Span
Mobility by Ethniciy Mobility by Free and Reduced Status
10.20%
19.40%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
Students New Since 2015-2016 Students New Since 2014-2015
12.50% 12.10%
8.80%
22.80%
20.20%
15.30%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
Elementary School Middle School High School
Students New Since 2015-2016 Students New Since 2014-2015
15.20%17.20%
11.20%8.50%
25.30%
33.90%
20.60%
16.50%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
Asian African American Hispanic White
Students New Since 2015-2016 Students New Since 2014-2015
29.90%
7.70%
32.80%
8.40%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
Free/Reduced Regular
Students New Since 2015-2016 Students New Since 2014-2015
45
Mobility by School
8.4%9.3%
13.5%
12.2%
10.8%10.0%
10.7%
8.8%
6.8%
11.9%
7.2%
8.6%
15.6%
13.6%
6.1%
14.8%
16.0%
22.3%
20.8%
17.8%
26.7%
24.2%
18.9%
15.8%
27.4%
15.8%
23.1%
33.1%
29.5%
15.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Students New Since 2015-2016 Students New Since 2014-2015
46
CONTINUOUS PARK HILL ENROLLMENT SINCE KINDERGARTEN (2016-2017)
10 YEAR HISTORICAL MOBILITY OF STUDENTS
88.3%
77.6%
69.0%
62.3% 60.5%
52.6% 51.6%49.3%
46.1%43.6% 44.9% 44.9%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
1stGraders
2ndGraders
3rdGraders
4thGraders
5thGraders
6thGraders
7thGraders
8thGraders
9thGraders
10thGraders
11thGraders
12thGraders
Pe
rce
nta
ge o
f St
ud
en
ts C
on
tin
uo
usl
y En
rolle
d in
P
ark
Hill
Sch
oo
ls S
ince
Kin
de
rgar
ten
51.6% of current 7th graders have been enrolled in Park Hill Schools continuously since Kindergarten
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Students in Park Hill School District < 1 Year Students in Park Hill School District < 2 Years
47
SUPPORTING DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
PLATTE COUNTY LIVE BIRTHRATES AND KINDERGARTEN ENROLLMENTS
COLLECTING BIRTHRATE DATA
Birthrate data is collected for Platte County by the Missouri Department of Health and is utilized in projecting future kindergarten class sizes. Although not all Platte County births ultimately attend Park Hill schools (four public school districts service families in Platte County), there has been a historical link between the live birthrate in the county, and the subsequent kindergarten enrollment. For example, 2010 yielded one the highest number of births that Platte County had ever seen (1,157), and subsequently yielded Park Hill School District’s largest kindergarten class during the 2015-2016 school year (852). This cohort will continue to grow as they move through their educational careers in Park Hill – a phenomenon known as “cohort growth”. The kindergarten class of 2016-2017 is 793 students, and represents a decrease in the kindergarten class for the first time since 2009-2010. Previously, kindergarten class sizes had been the historical highs for six consecutive years beginning in 2010-2011. In addition, the percentage of Platte County births compared to enrollment five years later continues to fall within the range of 65-75%, currently at a level of 68.5%.
BIRTHRATE AND KINDERGARTEN CLASS SIZE DATA
The table below lists the Platte County birth data and corresponding kindergarten enrollment (5 years later).
Birth Year Platte County
Live Births Increase Kindergarten
Year
Park Hill Kindergarten Enrollment
% of Platte County Live Births as
Students in PHSD Kindergarten Class
Kindergarten Increase
2002 1,047 3 2007-2008 704 67.2% -2
2003 1,013 -34 2008-2009 727 71.8% +23
2004 1,062 49 2009-2010 705 66.4% -22
2005 1,112 50 2010-2011 745 67.0% +40
2006 1,068 -44 2011-2012 753 70.5% +8
2007 1,092 24 2012-2013 771 70.6% +18
2008 1,088 -4 2013-2014 789 72.5% +18
2009 1,091 3 2014-2015 822 75.3% +33
2010 1,157 66 2015-2016 852 73.6% +30
2011 1,158 1 2016-2017 793 68.5% -59
2012 1,136 -22
2013 1,142 6
2014 1,106 -36
2015 1,140 34
48
HOUSEHOLD DATA
New households within the Park Hill School District are calculated through review of monthly reports
submitted to the district by the Home Builders Association of Greater Kansas City, Platte County (Permit
Reports), and the Kansas City Planning and Development Department. Households are classified as either
single-family residences, or multi-family residences. Multi-family residences include duplexes, four-plexes
and apartment complexes.
As of 2016-2017, the Park Hill School District includes 30,633 households. This equates to approximately
0.36 students per household. Households have steadily increased over the last twenty years as more
residential development has occurred. Since 1980, the district has seen an annual increase in new
households at approximately 450 new households per year. In 2015, 419 new households were
constructed, reflecting the fourth consecutive year in which the number of new homes has increased by
more than 250. These increases in new home construction in the Park Hill School District is consistent
with the metropolitan Kansas City area and show some recovery in the housing market that saw fewer
new homes in the last five years.
The next page includes the graph: New Households within the School District – 10 Year History. This graph shows the number of new homes constructed within the school district since the 2008-2009 school year. The graph shows a significant decrease in new homes in the last half of the decade compared to the first half.
49
NEW HOUSEHOLDS WITHIN THE SCHOOL DISTRICT – 10 YEAR HISTORY
235
120136
104
265 261275
419
962
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017
Incr
ease
in n
ew h
om
es w
ith
in d
istr
ict
bo
un
dar
ies
New Households
50
SCHOOL-AGE CHILDREN WITHIN PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT HOUSEHOLDS
The number of students per household in the Park Hill School District has remained steady over the last decade. The table below shows data from the last ten years, with the number of households in the Park Hill School District in 2007-2008 at 28,818. As of 2016-2017, each Park Hill household yields 0.35 students, or approximately 1 student per every 3 households. The number of students per household in the district has decreased slightly over the last 20 years from 0.43 to 0.35 students per household.
School Year District Enrollment Households in
PHSD Students Per Household
2007-2008 9,879 28,818 0.343
2008-2009 10,106 29,053 0.348
2009-2010 10,159 29,173 0.348
2010-2011 10,199 29,309 0.348
2011-2012 10,299 29,413 0.350
2012-2013 10,448 29,678 0.352
2013-2014 10,504 29,939 0.351
2014-2015 10,713 30,214 0.355
2015-2016 11,111 30,633 0.363
2016-2017 11,287 31,595 0.357
3 Year Average 0.358
7 Year Average 0.354
51
FUTURE ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
One benefit to tracking district enrollment trends is the ability to utilize the trend data to project future enrollment. Predicting future enrollment is an important piece in many school processes: long-range planning, budgeting, staffing, and predicting future building and capital needs. The Park Hill School District has utilized two tools to predict future enrollment – cohort growth and household construction patterns. These tools allow for three projection models (3-Year Cohort, 7-Year Cohort, Household) that create an anticipated range of enrollment for future years.
PROJECTION METHODS
COHORT SURVIVAL METHOD
Two of the three methods of projecting student enrollment for future years involve the use of “cohort survival.” Cohort survival is a measure of the rate at which students grouped by grade level pass into the next grade level a year later. For example, in 2013-2014 Park Hill School District’s class of 2nd graders was 788. A year later, this class became a third grade class of 795. Using this example, the rate of cohort survival (0.89% increase) is calculated in the following way:
(795-788)/788 = 0.89%
The 0.89% increase is a measure of the likelihood our second grade class will become larger or smaller as the class passes into the third grade the following year. To minimize the effects of an exceptional year, three and seven-year cohorts are calculated by averaging the cohort survival for three and seven-years respectively. The following tables show how three-year and seven-year cohort survival averages are calculated.
52
3-YEAR COHORT PROJECTION METHOD
To determine projections based upon the three-year cohort, the three-year cohort survival rate is calculated for each grade level, and these rates are added to the previous year’s enrollment. For example, projections for the 1st grade class of 2017-2018 are based upon the 2016-2017 kindergarten enrollment (a known value of 793) and the survival rate of the last three years in which a kindergarten class has become 1st graders (+3.49%). Therefore, the projection for the 2017-2018 1st grade class using this method is 821 students [793 + (793 x 3.49%) = 821].
Kindergarten to First Grade
3-Year Cohort Growth
Year Students in
Kindergarten
Students in 1st Grade 1 Year
Later % Increase
2013-2014 789 813 3.04%
2014-2015 822 865 5.23%
2015-2016 852 871 2.23%
3 Year Average Increase 2,463 2,549 3.49%
Projections for subsequent years are calculated using the same three-year cohort survival rates for each grade level.
7-YEAR COHORT PROJECTION METHOD
To determine projections based upon the seven-year cohort, the seven-year cohort survival rate is calculated for each grade level, and these rates are added to the previous year’s enrollment. For example, projections for the 2017-2018 9th grade class is based upon the 2016-2017 8th grade enrollment (a known value of 895) and the survival rate of the last seven years in which an 8th grade class becomes the 9th grade class (6.47%). Therefore, the projection for the 2017-2018 9th grade class using this method is 953 students [895 + (895 x 6.47%) = 953].
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8th Grade to 9th Grade
7-Year Cohort
Year Students in Eighth
Grade Students in Ninth
Grade 1 Year Later % Increase
2009-2010 805 855 6.21%
2010-2011 803 858 6.85%
2011-2012 787 830 5.46%
2012-2013 824 864 4.85%
2013-2014 812 851 4.80%
2014-2015 867 950 9.57%
2015-2016 867 930 7.27%
7 Year Average Increase 5,765 6,138 6.47%
Projections for subsequent years are calculated using the same seven-year cohort survival rates for each grade level.
COHORT INDICES
The chart below represents the indices used to project growth from one grade level to the next, utilizing 3-year and 7-year cohort figures. These are current values utilizing data from 2008-2009 to 2016-2017 enrollments.
Cohort Movement 3 YEAR AVG 7 YEAR AVG
K-1 3.49% 2.80%
1-2 2.99% 2.19%
2-3 2.44% 2.39%
3-4 2.54% 1.82%
4-5 2.48% 1.54%
5-6 3.60% 2.18%
6-7 5.32% 4.91%
7-8 1.47% 0.88%
8-9 7.27% 6.47%
9-10 -0.68% -1.14%
10-11 0.16% -1.56%
11-12 0.08% -0.21%
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PREDICTING BIRTHRATES
One challenge posed in using cohort survival as a projection method is estimating the size of the kindergarten class in future years. Since cohort survival cannot be calculated for the kindergarten class (no class comes before it in previous years), Platte County birthrates are used to estimate the kindergarten class size each year. Over the last three years, an average of 72.5% of births in Platte County (known as “live births”) have attended kindergarten in Park Hill School District schools five years later. For example, in 2010 Platte County reported 1,157 live births. Five years later, in school year 2016-2017, 852 kindergarten students were enrolled in Park Hill School District. Using known values for Platte County birthrates in years 2012 through 2016, kindergarten enrollment for school years 2017-2018 through 2020-2021 can be estimated based upon known birthrates. To calculate this, a regression with live birth as the dependent variable and change per year as the independent variable is utilized to produce a growth curve model that takes into account the non-linear change pattern. Kindergarten enrollment estimations past the school year 2020-2021 cannot be calculated based upon known births (these children have not yet been born). Values for these kindergarten enrollments are based upon a predicted number of children born in Platte County. To predict this, the same growth curve explained above is used and a regression using kindergarten enrollment as the dependent variable and live births and current year as the independent variable is made. Projections made from 3 years of birth data are input into the 3-year cohort projection model, and projections made from 7 years of birth data are included in the 7-year cohort projection model.
KINDERGARTEN CLASS SIZE PROJECTIONS
School Year 3-Years of Data 7-Years of Data
2017-2018 823 802
2018-2019 828 806
2019-2020 802 780
2020-2021 826 804
2021-2022 827 809
2022-2023 828 814
2023-2024 828 819
2024-2025 829 824
2025-2026 830 829
2026-2027 831 834
Using these projection models, the kindergarten class size for 2017-2018 is projected to be between 802 (7-Year Projection) and 823 (3-Year Projection) students.
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HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS METHOD
Enrollment projections, based on households, also provides an opportunity to determine student enrollment. By dividing the number of school-age children (currently 11,287) into the number of homes in the school district (31,959), the average number of school-age children per household can be calculated. The 2016-2017 is 0.357 students per household. As the district continues to increase households, the number of students per household multiplied by the projected households will provide an enrollment projection. To make these projections the following steps are followed:
1. Project the number of households in the Park Hill School District based upon historical growth.
2. Project the number of students per household based upon historical growth.
3. Calculate district enrollment based upon the above two projections.
4. Distribute the enrollment across grade levels based on historical distribution.
For the household projection method, the district is anticipating the new homes in each year and the students per household values as described in the following table.
Year District Households
Students Per Household
Projected Enrollment
2017-2018 32,031 35.55% 11,387
2018-2019 32,468 35.55% 11,542
2019-2020 32,904 35.55% 11,697
2020-2021 33,341 35.55% 11,852
2021-2022 33,777 35.55% 12,007
2022-2023 34,213 35.55% 12,162
2023-2024 34,650 35.55% 12,317
2024-2025 35,086 35.55% 12,473
2025-2026 35,523 35.55% 12,628
2026-2027 35,959 35.55% 12,783
The following pages include the student enrollment projections described below:
Accuracy of Projection Methods. This chart details the accuracy of the last ten reports at predicting the 2016-2017 enrollment of 11,287 Student Enrollment Projection Summary – Tables. These tables summarize the grade span sizes projected for the next ten years by three different methods. Student Enrollment Projection Summary – Graph. This graph summarizes the grade span sizes for the current school year and projections for the next ten years by three different methods.
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STUDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
ACCURACY OF PROJECTION METHODS
The Park Hill School District has utilized the student enrollment projection methods described above for over two decades. The projections have been presented to the
Board of Education and public as a means to anticipate future program, facility and budget needs.
The chart below details the accuracy of the last ten reports at predicting the 2016-2017 enrollment of 11,287.
10,757 11,235
10,964 10,803 10,582 10,879 10,855 11,036
11,277 11,287
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2007-2008EnrollmentProjection
2008-2009EnrollmentProjection
2009-2010EnrollmentProjection
2010-2011EnrollmentProjection
2011-2012EnrollmentProjection
2012-2013EnrollmentProjection
2013-2014EnrollmentProjection
2014-2015EnrollmentProjection
2015-2016EnrollmentProjection
2016-2017Actual
Enrollment
Median Projection Actual
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STUDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTION SUMMARY – TABLES
Projections made from 3-Year Cohort Growth Data
Grade Level
2017-2018
2018-2019
2019-2020
2020-2021
2021-2022
2022-2023
2023-2024
2024-2025
2025-2026
2026-2027
0 823 828 802 826 827 828 828 829 830 831
1 821 852 857 830 855 856 857 857 858 859
2 897 846 878 883 855 881 882 883 883 884
3 900 919 867 899 905 876 903 904 905 905
4 873 923 942 889 922 928 898 926 927 928
5 906 895 946 965 911 945 951 920 949 950
6 900 939 927 980 1,000 944 979 985 953 983
7 852 948 989 976 1,032 1,053 994 1,031 1,037 1,004
8 883 864 962 1,004 990 1,047 1,068 1,009 1,046 1,052
9 960 947 927 1,032 1,077 1,062 1,123 1,146 1,082 1,122
10 924 954 941 921 1,025 1,070 1,055 1,115 1,138 1,075
11 936 925 956 942 922 1,027 1,072 1,057 1,117 1,140
12 871 937 926 957 943 923 1,028 1,073 1,058 1,118
11,546 11,777 11,920 12,104 12,264 12,440 12,638 12,735 12,783 12,851
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Projections made from 7-Year Cohort Growth Data
Grade Level
2017-2018
2018-2019
2019-2020
2020-2021
2021-2022
2022-2023
2023-2024
2024-2025
2025-2026
2026-2027
0 802 806 780 804 809 814 819 824 829 834
1 815 824 829 802 826 832 837 842 847 852
2 890 833 842 847 820 844 850 855 860 866
3 900 911 853 862 867 840 864 870 875 881
4 866 916 928 869 878 883 855 880 886 891
5 898 879 930 942 882 891 897 868 894 900
6 888 918 898 950 963 901 910 917 887 914
7 849 932 963 942 997 1,010 945 955 962 931
8 878 856 940 971 950 1,006 1,019 953 963 970
9 953 935 911 1,001 1,034 1,011 1,071 1,085 1,015 1,025
10 919 942 924 901 990 1,022 999 1,059 1,073 1,003
11 920 905 927 910 887 975 1,006 983 1,043 1,056
12 868 918 903 925 908 885 973 1,004 981 1,041
11,446 11,575 11,628 11,726 11,811 11,914 12,045 12,095 12,115 12,164
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Projections made from Household Growth Data
Grade Level
2017-2018
2018-2019
2019-2020
2020-2021
2021-2022
2022-2023
2023-2024
2024-2025
2025-2026
2026-2027
0 848 860 871 883 894 906 917 929 941 952
1 871 883 895 907 919 930 942 954 966 978
2 864 876 888 899 911 923 935 947 958 970
3 851 863 874 886 897 909 921 932 944 955
4 860 872 884 895 907 919 930 942 954 966
5 855 867 878 890 902 913 925 937 948 960
6 863 875 887 899 910 922 934 946 957 969
7 903 915 927 940 952 964 976 989 1,001 1,013
8 898 911 923 935 947 959 972 984 996 1,008
9 932 945 957 970 983 995 1,008 1,021 1,034 1,046
10 908 920 933 945 957 970 982 994 1,007 1,019
11 875 886 898 910 922 934 946 958 970 982
12 858 870 882 893 905 917 928 940 952 964
11,386 11,543 11,697 11,852 12,006 12,161 12,316 12,473 12,628 12,782
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STUDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTION SUMMARY – GRAPH
2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 2026-2027
3 Year Cohort Projections 11,546 11,777 11,920 12,104 12,264 12,440 12,638 12,735 12,783 12,851
7 Year Cohort Projections 11,446 11,575 11,628 11,726 11,811 11,914 12,045 12,095 12,115 12,164
Household Projections 11,386 11,543 11,697 11,852 12,006 12,161 12,316 12,473 12,628 12,782
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
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FACILITY PLANNING
One use of student enrollment projections is to anticipate the need for additional school buildings. Although projections are not made for growth of each school, projections are made for each school level – elementary (Kindergarten through 5th Grade), middle (6th through 8th Grade) and high school level (9th through 12th Grade). Also, facility needs for early childhood services (pre-Kindergarten), students with special needs, and support services are also influenced by enrollment growth. Projections when each level will reach effective capacity can be anticipated through the use of planning criteria.
PLANNING CRITERIA
In the Fall, 2014, the Board of Education approved a set of facility planning criteria to assist the district in preparing for future space and/or facility needs. The 19 criteria were each tied to a Comprehensive School Improvement Plan (CSIP) goal, which form the foundation of the district’s strategic plan. The criteria and CSIP goal alignment are detailed below. 21st Century Learning. We will continue to improve how we educate our learners. Our district will seek out new opportunities to teach and model to our students the effective use of technology to support learning, collaboration, critical thinking, and problem solving skills. CSIP Goal(s): Academic, Employee Grade Configurations. We will provide grade configurations that ensure educational success through (1) minimizing the number of student transitions between district attendance centers; (2) seeking to streamline district feeder patterns to build a greater sense of tradition and community; and (3) identifying grade configurations that encourage and foster relationships between students, teachers, administrators and parents. CSIP Goal(s): Academic Specialized Spaces. We value diverse opportunities for each learner. Specialized and innovative facilities will be provided that support instruction of core curriculum, electives, student activities and athletics to ensure that each student is provided a balanced learning experience. Specialized spaces may include, but are not limited to, science labs, music rooms, auditoriums, media centers, gymnasiums, and athletic fields. CSIP Goal(s): Academic, Employee Special Education. We will provide appropriately designed and equipped spaces for each learner. CSIP Goal(s): Academic, Climate Student-Teacher Ratio. We will provide effective student-teacher ratios based on district standards and Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education recommendations for considering building capacities and staffing. CSIP Goal(s): Financial, Climate, Academic, Employee Maintain Quality Facilities. We will provide quality facilities to our students through ongoing maintenance, renovations and repurposing of existing facilities. CSIP Goal(s): Academic, Climate, Employee Early Childhood Programming. We will continue to provide an early childhood education program to address the learning needs of young children and to prepare them for future success. CSIP Goal(s): Academic, Climate
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Safety and Security. We will include safety and security features in our building projects that help staff and students respond to natural disasters, potential violent acts and general supervision. CSIP Goal(s): Climate, Employee Temporary Classrooms. For educational, financial and safety reasons, we will not consider mobile or other temporary classrooms as a long-term solution to growth in enrollment or programs. CSIP Goal(s): Financial, Climate, Academic, Employee Land Requirements for Schools. We will plan for the purchase of land for new and existing facilities prior to need.
• Elementary Schools: 14-20 acres (provide 10-15 acres, plus one acre for every 100 students) • Middle Schools: 26-40 acres (provide 20-30 acres, plus one acre for every 100 students) • High Schools: 40-55 acres (provide 30-40 acres plus one acre for every 100 students, and
consider an additional 40 acres for competitive playfields and parking) These are consistent with local school planning standards. CSIP Goal(s): Financial Appropriate Areas for Learning. We will provide appropriate space for each learner based upon a local, regional and national set of standards. 2014 standards have been set at the following:
• High Schools: 175 square foot per learner • Middle Schools: 150 square foot per learner • Elementary Schools: 120 square foot per learner • District Wide: 145 square foot per learner
The standards are consistent with Council of Educational Facility Planners International and recent school construction projects. CSIP Goal(s): Financial, Climate, Academic, Employee School Size. We will establish effective school size based upon research, community input and the maximization of existing resources. 2014 standards have been set at the following:
High Schools: 1,200 to 1,800 students
Middle Schools: 500 to 900 students
Elementary Schools: 400 to 650 students CSIP Goal(s): Financial, Climate, Academic, Employee
Partnering for Success. We will look for opportunities to maximize student academic success through partnerships with external organizations such as post-secondary, technical trade, business, non-profit and civic organizations. CSIP Goal(s): Financial, Academic, Employee Recruit, Retain and Develop Staff. We will deploy strategies to recruit, retain and develop the highest quality staff that create the highest quality students. Needs for specialized environments for training, coaching and collaboration for 21st century learning will be considered. CSIP Goal(s): Financial, Climate, Academic, Employee Technology. We will address strategies to maintain and improve technology hardware, software, training, delivery, dependability and the security of data to support students and staff. CSIP Goal(s): Financial, Academic
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Support Service. We will demonstrate operational effectiveness and address district growth by providing quality support services, such as Food Service, Transportation, Maintenance and Operations, Technology, and community use of facilities. CSIP Goal(s): Financial, Academic Financial Stewardship. We will seek out strategies to minimize the overall cost of financing capital improvements. Broad considerations of costs related to both short and long-term debt and potential “no-tax-increase” bond issues will be integrated into planning strategies. CSIP Goal(s): Financial Focus on Long-Term Value. We will emphasize long-term value when designing, constructing and renovating district facilities. Decisions will be based on return-on-investment and life cycle methodologies and long-term maintainability and sustainability. CSIP Goal(s): Financial, Academic, Climate Future Enrollment. We will use current and historical data in association with proven enrollment projection methodologies to forecast future district enrollment growth. CSIP Goal(s): Financial
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LONG-RANGE FACILITY PLAN
In the Spring, 2015, the Park Hill Board of Education adopted the following plan to address future space needs brought on by the projected
enrollment growth over the next ten years. The plan entails the construction of a facility for support services, the addition of two elementary
schools, the addition of a Middle School, and additional classroom space for high school programming.
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SCHOOL CAPACITY ANALYSIS
In educational planning, one way to calculate building capacity is based upon gross square footage per student calculations. The Council of Educational Facility Planners International (CEFPI) and other organizations and states have created standards for the amount of gross square footage needed within schools to effectively maintain the educational programming demands of today’s schools. The gross square footage standards in the table below have been established based upon standards published by CEFPI, and from a review of state and local standards on construction of new facilities for each grade span. These square footage standards have been adopted by the Park Hill School District Board of Education in the Faciility Planning – Planning Criteria.
School Type
Target Square Footage Per
Student “Effective Capacity”
Highest Limit Square Footage Per
Student “Efficiency Capacity”
Lower Limit Square Footage Per
Student “Functional Capacity”
Elementary Schools 120 129 111
Middle Schools 150 165 135
High Schools 175 197 153
Support Services 12 14 10
Target square footage per student capacities are listed above as “Effective Capacity”. Ranges have been established around the target and defined as “Efficiency Capacity” which is the upper limit of space needed per student before the space available exceeds what is needed, and the “Functional Capacity” which is the lower limit of square footage per student before the operation of the school and programs is hindered by lack of space.
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CURRENT FACILITY CAPACITY
The table below details the current square footage in each Park Hill facility. A red status indicates current enrollment over the defined “effective capacity” for the school/facility. In addition, each grade span is totalled to better understand the overall district condition. These values define the current state, and do not consider student enrollment projection increases in future years.
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FUTURE DISTRICT GROWTH TRENDS
The school district also monitors population trends within the entire community to assist in long-range planning. By looking at current and projected trends in the populations of school-aged children, child bearing females, and the entire population, critical decisions can be made regarding future programming demands, as well as facility neeeds. The next section includes the following maps: Estimated Population of the Park Hill School District (2014). This map shows the estimated population density by census block within the school district. A census block group is a geographical unit used by the United States Census Bureau. It is the smallest geographical unit for which the bureau publishes sample data, i.e. data which is only collected from a fraction of all households. Estimated Rate of Change in Population (2014-2024). This map shows the projected change in total population by census block group within district boundaries over ten years. Estimated Children Under the Age of 5 (2014). This map shows the estimated population of children under the age of 5 in 2014 by census block. Estimated Change In Children Under the Age of 5 (2014-2024). This map shows the projected change in the children less than five years of age population by census block group within district boundaries over ten years.
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ESTIMATED POPULATION OF THE PARK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT (2014)
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ESTIMATED RATE OF CHANGE IN POPULATION (2014-2024)
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ESTIMATED CHILDREN UNDER THE AGE OF 5 (2014)
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ESTIMATED CHANGE IN CHILDREN UNDER THE AGE OF 5 (2014-2024)
*
