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AlvinIndependentSchoolDistrict

Demographic Update

Spring 2017

Economic Conditions – Houston Area (December 2016)

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UnemploymentRate

0.9%

14,400 new jobsNational rate 1.5%

Job Growth

0.5%

2,649 fewer starts than 2015

AnnualHome Starts

25,489

Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy

U.S. 4.5%Texas 4.6%

Houston MSA 5.3%Alvin 5.4%

Alvin ISD Home Sales

• Alvin ISD had 2,300 home sales in 2016, and 35% of them were new homes

• The median sale price in 2016 for a new home in AISD was $296,894

• The median sale price in 2016 for an existing home in AISD was $208,009

2016 Home Sales by Price Point

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0.63%

31.23%

39.42%

22.80%

5.92%

2016 Alvin ISDNew Home Sales

< $150K

$150K - $250K

$250K-$350K

$350K-$500K

> $500K

21.01%

45.69%

22.90%

8.30%2.10%

2016 Alvin ISDExisting Home

Sales

Houston New Home Ranking Report

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ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 4Q16

*Adjusted based on additional research by Templeton Demographics staff(Added Sierra Vista 1,000 lots; Sterling Lakes West 569 lots; Newport Lake Estates 199 lots,

Future Manvel Development 395 lots)

Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future1 Fort Bend ISD 2,823 3,127 3,497 12,7522 Cypress‐Fairbanks ISD 2,734 2,532 3,799 10,0053 Katy ISD 2,193 2,445 2,876 17,0874 Lamar CISD 2,437 2,371 4,699 16,6025 Conroe ISD 1,772 2,030 4,572 25,6476 Houston ISD 1,774 1,842 3,289 6,7377 Klein ISD 1,149 1,455 2,013 2,1948 Alvin ISD 1,170 1,131 2,074 16,529*9 Humble ISD 1,096 1,046 1,879 8,96110 Tomball ISD 828 944 2,617 2,86011 Clear Creek ISD 892 881 1,559 3,98012 Spring ISD 617 610 881 6,72513 Aldine ISD 524 538 1,037 1,53614 New Caney ISD 385 526 619 4,15715 Goose Creek CISD 352 415 395 1,06916 Dickinson ISD 352 414 716 4,84417 Sheldon ISD 477 410 329 3,86118 Pearland ISD 344 400 407 81219 Spring Branch ISD 488 379 1,455 1,08020 Pasadena ISD 296 376 163 243

New Housing Activity

• Alvin ISD started more than 1,100 new homes and closed nearly 1,100 new homes in 2016

• This represents the most annual starts and closings in more than 8 years• New home inventory is currently at a healthy 7 month’s supply

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Alvin ISD

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350Starts Closings

Starts 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Closings 2012 2013 2014 2015 20161Q 195 143 205 229 314 1Q 178 178 156 212 2272Q 204 186 233 299 225 2Q 200 168 232 274 2503Q 204 174 252 243 324 3Q 193 158 188 244 3064Q 151 163 224 252 280 4Q 182 155 226 228 311

Total 754 666 914 1,023 1,143 Total 753 659 802 958 1,094

Annual Closings 4Q16

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Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q16 (Ranked by Annual Closings)

Rank Subdivision Elementary Zone 

Annual Closings VDL Future

1 SAVANNAH (POMONA) POMONA 184 216 9402 RODEO PALMS JETER 177 277 3853 STERLING LAKES MERIDIANA 147 242 3,6384 SOUTHLAKE YORK 117 176 1025 SOUTHERN TRAILS BROTHERS 113 88 06 SEDONA LAKES POMONA 71 155 2737 SHADOW RIDGE YORK 61 4 08 LAKELAND MASON 60 35 3379 POMONA POMONA 54 181 1,79710 PALM CREST MERIDIANA 29 57 0

TOTALS 1,013 1,431 7,472

District Housing Overview

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• The district has more than 2,000 lots available to build on

• Alvin ISD has more than 16,500 planned future lots

Residential Activity

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Pomona• 2,100 total lots• 1,797 future lots• 54 occupied• 181 VDL• 40 homes under construction• Groundwork underway on 83 lots• Anticipate building 100 homes in 2017• 25 acres for future multi-family

development• $260K-$550K• Approx. 750 total elementary students

at build out• Pomona Elementary

Residential Activity

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Lakes of Savannah• 3,139 total lots within AISD• 940 futures• 1,891 occupied• 216 VDL• 56 U/C• Additional 365 future lots within

Fort Bend ISD• 94 lots delivered west of

Savannah Pkwy, models U/C, releasing lots by May 2017

• 1,610 occupied homes within Savannah Lakes Elementary, all homebuilding within Pomona

• Approx. 995 total elementary students at build out

Fort Bend ISD

94 lots delivered

Homebuilding

Residential Activity

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Rodeo Palms• 1,730 total lots• 385 futures• 1,027 occupied• 277 VDL• 26 U/C• Building 150-200 homes per year• $140K- $400K• Approx. 585 total elementary

students at build out• Jeter Elementary

Newport Lake Estates• 216 future lots• Streets paving on Phase 1 with 101 lots• Homebuilding starting by May 2017• Building 30 homes by the end of 2017 and 50

homes in 2018• Approx. 70 total elementary students at build out • Jeter Elementary

57 lots delivered

151 lots delivered

4Q16

Residential Activity

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62 lots delivered

67 lots delivering

April

Sedona Lakes• 900 total lots• 273 futures• 410 occupied• 155 VDL• 33 U/C• Building 70 homes a year• $300K - $600K• Approx. 230 total elementary

students at build out• Pomona Elementary

Oak Crest of Manvel • 226 existing manufactured

home sites• Added 62 home sites in 2016• Property is releasing an

additional 67 lots in April 2017• Community added 50 homes in

2016 and 11 in Jan-Feb 2017• Current student yield = 0.54• Mason Elementary

Residential Activity

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Meridiana• 5,501 total lots• 5,058 futures• 25 occupied• 325 VDL• 48 U/C• 113 new home starts in 2016• $250K-$750K• Anticipate building 200 in 2017• Approx. 1,815 total elementary

students at build out• Meridiana Elementary

Residential Activity

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Sterling Lakes• 5,000 total lots• 3,638 futures• 1,032 occupied• 242 VDL• 44 U/C• 155 homes started in 2016• Sterling Lakes West Section 2

delivered with 135 lots• Final plat approved for Sterling

Lakes West Sec 3 with 235 lots• $180K-$460K• Approx. 1,650 total elementary

students at build out• Meridiana Elementary

Sterling Lakes West Sec 2

Sec 20 delivered

with 78 lots

Residential Activity

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Sierra Vista• 1,000 future lots• Groundwork starting on Phase 1 with

211 lots spring 2017• Phase 1 delivering by December 2017• First homes occupied spring 2018• $250K+• Approx. 330 total elementary students

at build out • Meridiana Elementary

Lacovia Lakes• Approx. 440 future lots• Preliminary plat approved in

November 2016• Developer says it is still in

planning stages and likely 1-2 years from groundwork starting

• Homebuilding could start by late 2019 or early 2020

• Approx. 145 total elementary students at build out

• Split between Meridiana and Mason Elementary

Residential Activity

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Bluewater Lakes• 330 future lots• Groundwork underway on

Sections 1 & 2 with 75 lots, delivering late fall 2017

• Preliminary plat under review for Sections 3 & 4 with 158 lots

• First homes occupied early 2018• Beezer Homes• Approx. 85 total elementary

students at build out• Mason Elementary

Pearland ISD

Massey Oaks• 975 total planned lots• Approx. 770 future lots within AISD• Development will begin within

Pearland ISD• Development still requires

annexation by the City of Pearland, zoning and ROW acquisition

• Likely 5+ years from homebuilding within AISD

• Approx. 200 total elementary students at build out

• Mason Elementary

Residential Activity

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Martha’s Vineyard• Approx. 315 total future lots• Groundwork starting by the end of May 2017• Final engineering plans underway• Homebuilding starting early 2018• Future commercial/retail section within development• Hood-Case Elementary

Multi-Family Overview

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Apartment Units Status Impact Elem Zone1 Shadow Creek Ranch MF 6 340 Under Construction Summer 2018 Wilder2 Southfork Lake Apartments 329 Under Construction Summer 2017 Duke

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Ten Year ForecastBy Grade Level

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• Alvin ISD may enroll 26,000 students by 2018• 5 year enrollment growth = 6,043• 2021/22 enrollment = 29,674• 10 year enrollment growth = 11,584• 2026/27 enrollment = 35,215

*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year

Year (Oct.) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th TotalTotal 

Growth % 

Growth 2012/13 872 1,518 1,541 1,464 1,408 1,481 1,434 1,383 1,476 1,336 1,546 1,300 1,136 991 18,8862013/14 842 1,657 1,604 1,631 1,517 1,412 1,527 1,469 1,418 1,507 1,524 1,453 1,273 975 19,809 923 4.9%2014/15 852 1,670 1,770 1,676 1,668 1,570 1,504 1,583 1,506 1,484 1,662 1,416 1,429 1,076 20,866 1,057 5.3%2015/16 844 1,720 1,800 1,855 1,758 1,746 1,612 1,628 1,679 1,564 1,719 1,579 1,419 1,235 22,158 1,292 6.2%2016/17 851 1,726 1,920 1,880 1,923 1,875 1,853 1,711 1,728 1,762 1,837 1,686 1,607 1,272 23,631 1,473 6.6%2017/18 890 1,797 1,884 2,013 1,950 2,009 1,981 1,975 1,831 1,808 2,037 1,755 1,663 1,425 25,019 1,388 5.9%2018/19 890 1,851 1,924 1,973 2,083 2,048 2,084 2,075 2,027 1,919 2,066 1,929 1,743 1,484 26,096 1,077 4.3%2019/20 890 1,915 2,012 2,016 2,046 2,186 2,157 2,207 2,171 2,115 2,174 1,965 1,950 1,554 27,359 1,263 4.8%2020/21 890 1,983 2,077 2,103 2,080 2,139 2,273 2,277 2,318 2,265 2,429 2,073 1,930 1,737 28,575 1,216 4.4%2021/22 890 2,048 2,144 2,170 2,183 2,175 2,236 2,380 2,397 2,412 2,554 2,310 2,051 1,724 29,674 1,099 3.8%2022/23 890 2,108 2,233 2,249 2,252 2,290 2,284 2,346 2,513 2,499 2,750 2,433 2,282 1,832 30,960 1,286 4.3%2023/24 890 2,136 2,291 2,349 2,336 2,373 2,382 2,392 2,483 2,625 2,850 2,621 2,400 2,038 32,166 1,205 3.9%2024/25 890 2,195 2,311 2,392 2,435 2,461 2,489 2,527 2,529 2,585 2,980 2,719 2,590 2,148 33,250 1,085 3.4%2025/26 890 2,237 2,386 2,422 2,491 2,559 2,593 2,629 2,666 2,638 2,939 2,847 2,686 2,319 34,301 1,051 3.2%2026/27 890 2,284 2,422 2,501 2,517 2,643 2,680 2,709 2,762 2,782 3,000 2,806 2,814 2,405 35,215 913 2.7%

Ten Year Forecast By Elementary Campus

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• Brothers Elementary will open this fall with about 650 students• Pomona Elementary will open this fall with 400 students

*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated permanent building capacity*Red box = enrollment exceeds stated capacity with temp/flex buildings

Permanent Building Capacity

Cap. W/Temp/ Flex/Bldgs

Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Campus 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27Alvin Elementary 484 704 547 527 504 500 513 542 533 545 516 533 523Alvin Primary 702 746 589 621 631 644 660 646 653 654 662 664 667Hood‐Case Elementary 750 926 717 709 694 693 703 714 753 789 816 842 875Jeter Elementary 800 888 796 830 882 872 909 948 980 988 1,001 1,003 999Hasse Elementary 800 800 713 761 773 786 759 745 760 767 779 794 804Marek Elementary 800 888 886 807 788 779 776 812 812 805 813 806 806Mark Twain Elementary 800 800 773 811 815 821 843 844 843 836 849 837 843Mason Elementary 653 829 757 663 682 688 686 714 786 855 905 959 1,014Passmore Elementary 750 838 708 710 701 696 686 667 684 701 704 720 716Savannah Lakes Elementary 800 932 897 836 817 807 812 782 808 819 813 821 800R L Stevenson Elementary 613 745 598 617 634 636 637 645 657 656 651 649 649Walt Disney Elementary 572 572 566 555 540 552 562 585 594 619 654 676 695Wilder Elementary 800 932 937 856 858 862 815 814 814 830 844 837 837York Elementary 800 800 1,005 842 899 974 1,036 1,040 1,040 1,035 1,026 1,017 1,017Duke Elementary 800 888 908 572 593 609 618 603 612 621 630 642 651Meridiana Elementary 800 800 610 736 832 944 1,038 1,142 1,263 1,396 1,566 1,738 1,908Brothers Elementary 800 800 0 650 673 707 727 710 714 722 727 733 738Pomona Elementary 800 800 0 400 516 631 744 872 979 1,098 1,196 1,286 1,374ELEMENTARY TOTALS 13,324 14,688 12,007 12,503 12,832 13,201 13,524 13,825 14,285 14,736 15,152 15,557 15,916Elementary Absolute Growth 696 496 329 369 323 301 460 451 416 405 359Elementary Percent Growth 6.15% 4.13% 2.63% 2.88% 2.45% 2.23% 3.33% 3.16% 2.82% 2.67% 2.31%

Ten Year ForecastBy Secondary Campus

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• Junior High #7 is expected to open Fall 2018• Alvin High School is expected to be over capacity with

temp/flex buildings by this fall

*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated permanent building capacity*Red box = enrollment exceeds stated capacity with temp/flex buildings

Permanent Building Capacity

Cap. W/Temp/ Flex/Bldgs

Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Campus 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27Alvin Junior High 1,000 1,000 831 853 907 924 887 839 852 882 941 962 984Fairview Junior High 1,000 1,000 757 759 819 845 872 916 901 882 866 885 883Harby Junior High 832 904 768 807 850 929 955 985 969 958 951 996 1,016Rodeo Palms 1,000 1,000 780 914 1,047 1,203 1,348 1,475 1,601 1,740 1,804 1,864 1,931Manvel Junior High 1,000 1,000 1,009 1,152 1,219 1,320 1,425 1,600 1,698 1,764 1,804 1,961 2,169Ryan Junior High 1,000 1,144 1,055 1,128 1,178 1,271 1,372 1,373 1,336 1,273 1,274 1,264 1,269Junior High #7 1,000JUNIOR HIGH TOTALS 6,832 6,048 5,200 5,613 6,020 6,492 6,859 7,188 7,357 7,499 7,640 7,932 8,252Junior High Absolute Growth 330 413 407 472 367 329 169 142 141 292 320Junior High Percent Growth 6.78% 7.94% 7.25% 7.84% 5.65% 4.80% 2.35% 1.93% 1.88% 3.82% 4.03%Alvin High School 2,640 2,760 2,661 2,797 2,828 2,943 3,080 3,127 3,291 3,378 3,408 3,430 3,429Manvel High School 2,685 2,901 2,091 1,815 1,798 1,924 2,088 2,231 2,383 2,599 2,837 2,989 3,137Shadow Creek High School 2,500 2,500 1,470 2,082 2,411 2,593 2,817 3,097 3,438 3,747 4,007 4,187 4,274Hensler CTE 800HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 8,625 8,161 6,222 6,694 7,037 7,460 7,985 8,455 9,112 9,724 10,252 10,606 10,840High School Absolute Growth 450 472 343 423 525 470 657 612 528 354 234High School Percent Growth 7.80% 7.59% 5.12% 6.01% 7.04% 5.89% 7.77% 6.72% 5.43% 3.45% 2.21%Assets 300 300 197 204 202 201 202 201 201 202 201 201 202Brazoria Co. J JAEP 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5ALTERNATIVE TOTALS 300 300 202 209 207 206 207 206 206 207 206 206 207DISTRICT TOTALS 29,481 29,197 23,631 25,019 26,096 27,359 28,575 29,674 30,960 32,166 33,250 34,301 35,215District Absolute Growth 1,473 1,388 1,077 1,263 1,216 1,099 1,286 1,205 1,085 1,051 913District Percent Growth 6.6% 5.9% 4.3% 4.8% 4.4% 3.8% 4.3% 3.9% 3.4% 3.2% 2.7%

Summary

• Alvin ISD had more than 1,100 new home closings in 2016.

• The median new home price within Alvin ISD is nearly $300,000.

• 5 subdivisions within Alvin ISD had more than 100 closings in 2016.

• Brothers Elementary is expected to open this fall with about 650 students, and Pomona Elementary should open with roughly 400 students.

• Five-year enrollment growth of 6,043 students, with a fall 2021 enrollment of 29,674.

• Ten-Year enrollment growth of 11,584 students with a fall 2026 enrollment of 35,215.

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