Data on California Gasoline Price Margins

6 July 2015

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

01-Jan-11 01-Jan-12 01-Jan-13 01-Jan-14 01-Jan-15

Retail Gasoline Prices in California

Nor Cal

So Cal

Prices generated from OPIS station retail price information. Prices include all applicable local and states taxes.

2

Crude Oil Prices Have Dropped Between $1.00 and $1.50 per Gallon

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

1/1/11 1/1/12 1/1/13 1/1/14 1/1/15

Crude Oil Prices in the United States: Dollars Per Gallon

WTI PriceBrent FOB Price

Source: Energy Information Administration

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Retail Gasoline Prices: US and CA

$0.00$0.20$0.40$0.60$0.80$1.00$1.20$1.40$1.60$1.80$2.00$2.20$2.40$2.60$2.80$3.00$3.20$3.40$3.60$3.80$4.00$4.20$4.40

Weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices

Weekly U.S. Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

Weekly California Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

Weekly Los Angeles, CA Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

Weekly San Francisco, CA Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices

Source: http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/

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The Issue • Why haven’t California Retail Prices dropped between $1.00 and

$1.50 per gallon, consistent with the drop in the price of crude oil? • What are the price differentials in the supply chain? • Why are these differentials what they are?

• This question has not been answered by the informal working group.

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Prices in Northern California

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

1/1/11 1/1/12 1/1/13 1/1/14 1/1/15

Nor Cal RetailNor Cal Branded RackNor Cal Unbranded RackCARBOB Spot SFBrent Crude FOB

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Prices in Southern California

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

1/1/11 1/1/12 1/1/13 1/1/14 1/1/15

So Cal RetailSo Cal Branded RackSo Cal Unbranded RackCARBOB Spot LABrent Crude FOB

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Data from January 1, 2014

• The same charts are shown for a shorter time interval to better show price variations.

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Prices in Northern California

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

1/1/14 1/1/15

Nor Cal RetailNor Cal Branded RackNor Cal Unbranded RackCARBOB Spot SFBrent Crude FOB

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Prices in Southern California

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

1/1/14 1/1/15

So Cal RetailSo Cal Branded RackSo Cal Unbranded RackCARBOB Spot LABrent Crude FOB

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These data will be expanded and compared in the following charts. In addition, data on comparisons with New York Harbor and Gulf

Coast gasoline are presented.

Spot CARBOB Prices Recently Increased

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

01-Jan-11 01-Jan-12 01-Jan-13 01-Jan-14 01-Jan-15

Spot CARBOB Prices in California

CARBOB_SPOT Los_Angeles

CARBOB_SPOT SF_Area

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Differential Between CARBOB Price and Crude Oil Price $.50 to $1.00/gal Higher Than Last Two Years

-$0.20

$0.00

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

$1.60

Differential: CARBOB Prices - Brent CrudePrice

Nor Cal

So Cal

13

Differential Between CARBOB Price and Crude Oil Price Unusually High (Brent Crude)

$0.20

$0.00

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

$1.60

$1.80

1/1/03 1/1/04 1/1/05 1/1/06 1/1/07 1/1/08 1/1/09 1/1/10 1/1/11 1/1/12 1/1/13 1/1/14 1/1/15

Differential: CARBOB Prices - Brent Crude Price

Nor Cal So Cal

14

Differential Between CARBOB Price and Crude Oil Price Unusually High (WTI Crude)

$0.20

$0.00

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

$1.60

$1.80

1/1/03 1/1/04 1/1/05 1/1/06 1/1/07 1/1/08 1/1/09 1/1/10 1/1/11 1/1/12 1/1/13 1/1/14 1/1/15

Differential: CARBOB Prices - Brent Crude Price

Nor Cal So Cal

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-$0.30

-$0.20

-$0.10

$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

$0.70

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00Differential: CARBOB Prices in LA Harbor vs GC and NY H

LA - NY DifferentialLA - GC Differential

LA Harbor CARBOB Spot Prices Have Exceeded NY Harbor or Gulf Coast Spot Gasoline Prices by $0.30/gal to $0.70/gal More than

Typical, for Almost Two Months

EIA Data: PET.EER_EPMRR_PF4_Y05LA_DPG.D PET.EER_EPMRU_PF4_Y35NY_DPG.D PET.EER_EPMRU_PF4_RGC_DPG.D

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Longer Term Perspective of Differential Between CARBOB Spot Prices and NY and GC Spot Prices

-$0.40

-$0.30

-$0.20

-$0.10

$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

$0.70

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00Differential: CARBOB Prices in LA Harbor vs GC and NY H

Differential CARBOB - NY HarborDifferentials CARBOB - Gulf Coast

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CARBOB to Branded Rack Differential Increased During May and June in Southern California

-$0.60

-$0.50

-$0.40

-$0.30

-$0.20

-$0.10

$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

1/1/14 1/1/15

Differential: Branded Rack Prices Minus CARBOB Prices

Nor Cal

So Cal

18

CARBOB to Unbranded Rack Differential Increased During May in Southern California

-$0.60

-$0.50

-$0.40

-$0.30

-$0.20

-$0.10

$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

1/1/14 1/1/15

Differential: Unbranded Rack Prices Minus CARBOB Prices

Nor Cal

So Cal

19

Differential Between Branded Rack and Retail Prices Volatile, Increasing over Time

$0.00

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

$1.60

$1.80

1/1/11 1/1/12 1/1/13 1/1/14 1/1/15

Differential: Retail minus Branded Rack Prices

Differential NoCal

Differential SoCal

20

Differential Between Unbranded Rack and Retail Prices More Volatile, Increasing More over Time

$0.00

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

$1.60

$1.80

1/1/11 1/1/12 1/1/13 1/1/14 1/1/15

Differential: Retail minus Unbranded Rack Prices

Differential NoCal

Differential SoCal

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Longer Term Perspective • Data available to the PMAC back to 1/1/2003, except for

retail price data • Following graphs show previous graphs, but for the entire

time period back to 2003

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Longer Perspective on Crude Oil Prices

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00 Crude Oil Prices in the United States: Dollars Per Gallon

WTI Price

Brent FOB Price

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Longer Perspective on Spot CARBOB Prices

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00 Spot CARBOB Prices in California

CARBOB_SPOT Los_Angeles

CARBOB_SPOT SF_Area

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In Summary • Price differentials increased throughout much of the supply chain,

but the largest increase was in the difference between the crude oil price and the CARBOB price.

• Retail differentials, although volatile, have generally increased

over time in both northern and southern California.

• Differentials between CARBOB and rack prices increased in southern California but much less so in northern California.

• The informal working group has not determined the reasons for these differentials.

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