Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 21 may 2013
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Transcript of Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 21 may 2013
WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 7316642300
GBP/USD- Trading the U.K. Consumer Price Report
Dollar Retreats Before Key Fed Officials Weigh In On QE3
Trading the News: U.K. Consumer Price Index
What’s Expected:
Time of release: 05/21/2013 8:30 GMT, 4:30 EDT
Primary Pair Impact: GBPUSD
Expected: 2.6%
Previous: 2.8%
Daily Forecast: 2.6% to 2.8%
Why Is This Event Important:
The headline reading for U.K. inflation is expected to increase an annualized 2.6% in April following the 2.8% expansion the month prior, and easing price pressures may dampen the appeal of the British Pound as it raises the Bank of England’s (BoE) scope to further embark on quantitative easing. However, as the region is expected to face above-target inflation over the policy horizon, we may see the BoE switch gears later this year, and the central bank may start to discuss a tentative exit strategy in the second-half of 2013 as the economic recovery slowly picks up.
TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE
1.2895 TGT 1.2915/1.2935
SL 1.2865
SELL USDJPY BELOW
102.05 TGT 101.85/101.65
SL 102.35
BUY GBPUSD ABOVE
1.5220 TGT 1.5240/1.5260
SL 1.5190
HEADLINES
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.2831 EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD
HIGH: 1.2878 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 1.2819 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIP
CLOSE: 1.2862 MACD =>-.0003(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 53(BULLISJH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 102.72 USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD
HIGH: 102.90 TREND: BEARISH
LOW: 102.42 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CLOSE: 102.68 MACD =>.04(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 49.17(BEARISHSIGNAL)
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HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5175 GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD
HIGH: 1.5218 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 1.5168 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 1.5191 MACD =>-.0003(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 50.7662(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 00.8455 EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD
HIGH: 00.8470 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 00.8447 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 00.8468 MACD =>-.0000(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 53.4470(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USD INDEX CHART
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ANALYSIS
OPEN: 84.1970 USDINDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD
HIGH: 84.2590 TREND: BEARISH
LOW: 83.9150 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CLOSE: 84.0120 MACD =>.0341(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 49.5018(BEARISH SIGNAL)
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Sun May 19
22:30
NZD Performance Services Index (APR)
Medium 56.1
55.6
23:01
GBP Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (MAY)
Low 2.1%
2.1%
23:01
GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (MAY)
Low 2.5%
0.4%
Mon May 20
JPY Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report for May
Medium
04:00
JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (APR)
Low -2.8%
48.4%
05:00
JPY Coincident Index (MAR F)
Low 93.8
93.3
05:00
JPY Leading Index (MAR F)
Medium 97.9
97.6
05:30
JPY Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (APR)
Low -0.5%
3.9%
05:30
JPY Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) (APR)
Low 2.1%
6.4%
06:00
JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (APR F)
Medium -23.6%
-24.1%
07:00
JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (APR)
Low -2.6%
-0.4%
12:30
USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (APR)
Medium -0.53
-0.23
17:00
USD Fed's Evans Speaks on Economy in Chicago
Low
Tue
May 21 00:00
AUD Conference Board Leading Index (MAR)
Medium 0.1%
0.3%
01:30
AUD RBA Policy Meeting - May Minutes
High
03:00
NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Expectation (2Q)
Medium 2.06%
2.17%
03:00
NZD Credit Card Spending s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Medium 0.4%
-0.3%
03:00
NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) (APR)
Medium 4.0%
3.6%
04:30
JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (MAR)
Medium
-0.4% 0.6%
05:00
JPY Supermarket Sales (YoY) (APR)
Low
1.7%
ECONOMIC CALLENDER
06:00
EUR German Producer Prices (MoM) (APR)
Low
-0.1% -0.2%
06:00
EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) (APR)
Low
0.1% 0.4%
07:00
CHF Money Supply M3 (YoY) (APR)
Low
9.9%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Low
-1.3% -0.1%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (APR)
Low
0.3% 0.4%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.2% 0.3%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (APR)
Medium
1.4% 2.0%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.3% 0.1%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (APR)
Medium
0.9% 1.3%
08:30
GBP DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) (MAR)
Low
2.0% 1.9%
08:30
GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR)
Medium
0.4% 0.3%
08:30
GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)
High
2.6% 2.8%
08:30
GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)
High
2.3% 2.4%
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index (APR)
Low
249.9 248.7
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.5% 0.4%
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index (YoY) (APR)
Low
3.1% 3.3%
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (APR)
Low
3.0% 3.2%
15:30
USD Fed's Bullard Speaks on Monetary Policy in Frankfurt
Low
17:00
USD Fed's Dudley Speaks in New York
Low
22:45
NZD Net Migration s.a. (APR)
Low
1220
23:50
JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (APR)
Medium
-¥637.3B -¥362.4B
23:50
JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade
Low
-¥605.8B -¥922.0B
Balance (Yen) (APR)
23:50
JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (APR)
Low
5.5 1.1
Wed May 22
JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (MAY 22)
High
0.10% 0.10%
JPY BOJ Kuroda Press Conference After Policy Meeting
High
00:30
AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (MAY)
Medium
-5.1%
00:30
AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (MAY)
Low
104.9
01:00
AUD DEWR Internet Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.1%
04:00
JPY Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement
Medium
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (MAR)
Low
16.3B
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (MAR)
Low
12.1B
08:30
GBP Bank of England Minutes
High
08:30
GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.1% -0.8%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (APR)
Medium
1.8% 0.4%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.1% -0.7%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) (APR)
Medium
2.0% -0.5%
08:30
GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (APR)
Medium
-4.0B 31.3B
08:30
GBP PSNB ex Interventions (APR)
Medium
8.5B 15.1B
08:30
GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (APR)
Medium
8.8B 16.7B
10:00
GBP CBI Trends Total Orders (MAY)
Low
-17 -25
10:00
GBP CBI Trends Selling Prices (MAY)
Low
5 8
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 17)
Low
-7.3%
12:30
CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)
Medium
0.2% 0.8%
12:30
CAD Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) (MAR)
Low
0.2% 0.7%
14:00
USD Fed's Bernanke Testifies on Economic Outlook
High
14:00
USD Existing Home Sales (APR)
Low
4.99M 4.92M
14:00
USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (APR)
Medium
1.3% -0.6%
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 17)
Low
-624K
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAY 17)
Low
575K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 17)
Low
2588K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 17)
Low
2300K
18:00
USD Fed Releases Minutes from Apr 30 - May 1 FOMC Meeting
High
23:50
JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (APR)
Low
6.9 5.5
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAY 17)
Medium
¥186.4B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAY 17)
Medium
¥19.2B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAY 17)
Low
-¥413.5B
Thu May 23
01:00
AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (MAY)
Medium
2.20%
01:45
LIVE
CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (MAY)
Medium
50.4 50.4
05:00
JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for May (Table)
Medium
07:00
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY P)
Low
44.8 44.4
07:00
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY P)
Low
44.5 44.3
07:30
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY A)
Medium
48.5 48.1
07:30
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY
Medium
50.0 49.6
A)
08:00
LIVE
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY A)
Medium
47.0 46.7
08:00
LIVE
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY A)
Medium
47.2 47.0
08:00
LIVE
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (MAY A)
Medium
47.2 46.9
08:30
GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P)
High
0.3% 0.3%
08:30
GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q P)
High
0.6% 0.6%
08:30
GBP Private Consumption (1Q P)
Low
0.3% 0.4%
08:30
GBP Government Spending (1Q P)
Low
0.2% 0.6%
08:30
GBP Gross Fixed Capital Formation (1Q P)
Low
0.3% -0.2%
08:30
GBP Exports (1Q P) Low
-1.0% -1.6%
08:30
GBP Imports (1Q P) Low
-0.9% -1.0%
08:30
GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ) (1Q P)
Low
-0.8%
08:30
GBP Total Business Investment (YoY) (1Q P)
Medium
0.8%
08:30
GBP Index of Services (MoM) (MAR)
Low
0.1% 0.8%
08:30
GBP Index of Services (3Mo3M) (MAR)
Low
0.6% 0.1%
10:05
USD Fed's Bullard to Speak on Monetary Policy in London
Low
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 18)
Medium
346K 360K
12:30
USD Continuing Claims (MAY 17)
Low
3000K 3009K
12:58
USD Markit US PMI Preliminary (MAY)
Medium
52
13:00
USD House Price Index (MoM) (MAR)
Medium
0.80% 0.70%
13:00
USD House Price Purchase Index (QoQ) (1Q)
Low
1.40%
14:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (MAY A)
Medium
-21.8 -22.3
14:00
USD New Home Sales (APR)
Low
425K 417K
14:00
USD New Home Sales (MoM) (APR)
Medium
1.90% 1.50%
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAY 17)
Low
99
15:00
USD Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (MAY)
Low
-5 -5
22:45
NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (APR)
Medium
480M 718M
22:45
NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (APR)
Low
4.06B 4.42B
22:45
NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (APR)
Low
3.60B 3.70B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAY 17)
Low
¥878.8B
Fri May 24
EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q F)
Medium
0.1% 0.1%
01:35
CNY MNI May Flash Business Sentiment Indicator
Low
02:55
JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda speech at Nikkei Conference
Low
04:00
USD Revisions: New Home Sales
Low
06:00
EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (1Q F)
High
-0.2% -0.2%
06:00
EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (1Q F)
High
-1.4% -1.4%
06:00
EUR German Domestic Demand (1Q)
Low
0.1% 0.2%
06:00
EUR German Exports (1Q)
Low
-0.6% -2.0%
06:00
EUR German Capital Investment (1Q)
Low
-0.7% -0.7%
06:00
EUR German Government Spending (1Q)
Low
0.3% 0.4%
06:00
EUR German Construction Investment (1Q)
Low
-1.2% -0.1%
06:00
EUR German Imports (1Q)
Low
-0.9% -0.6%
06:00
EUR German Private Consumption (1Q)
Low
0.3% 0.1%
06:00
EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JUN) (JUN)
Medium
6.2 6.2
08:00
EUR German IFO - Business Climate (MAY)
Medium
104.4 104.4
08:00
EUR German IFO - Current Assessment (MAY)
Medium
107.2 107.2
08:00
EUR German IFO - Expectations (MAY)
Medium
101.6 101.6
08:30
GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase (APR)
Medium
32800 31227
12:30
LIVE
USD Durable Goods Orders (APR)
High
1.7% -5.7%
12:30
USD Durables Ex Transportation (APR)
Medium
0.5% -1.4%
12:30
USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (APR)
Low
0.5% 0.2%
12:30
USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (APR)
Low
0.3%
22:45
NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (APR)
Medium
-380M -525M
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