Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 20.03.13
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Transcript of Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 20.03.13
DAILY I FOREX REPORT 20
TH
MARCH 2013
WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966
WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966
Dollar Drops Alongside S&P 500 on European Troubles
Cyprus Bank Levy Vote to Overshadow German, UK Economic Data
GBP/USD- Trading The U.K. Consumer Price Report
All Eyes on Cyprus as Parliament Votes on EU Bailout Terms
Euro, Risk-Linked Currencies to Fall if Bank Levy is Ratified
UK CPI, German ZEW Data Unlikely to Drive FX Volatility
The economic fills out with top-tier event risk in European trading hours but the fiasco in Cyprus is likely to remain central for financial markets. The island nation’s Parliament is due to vote on the terms of the controversial EU bailout deal that will impose a bank levy on deposits in Cypriot banks. Passage of the measure will set a precedent for debt crisis management that could spark bank runs in other Eurozone countries with sickly banks (notably Spain) as depositors look to safeguard their savings from potential future seizure. Fears of such an outcome stand to put the Euro under pressure. Overall risk appetite is likewise vulnerable in this scenario, threatening sentiment-geared currencies including the Canadian and Australian Dollars.
TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW
1.2915 tgs
1.2895/1.2875 sl 1.2945
BUY USDJPY ABOVE
95.50 tgt 95.70/95.90
SL 95.20
BUY GBPUSD ABOVE
1.5135 Tgt
1.5155/1.5175 SL
1.5105
HEADLINES
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.2943
HIGH: 1.2970
LOW: 1.2916
CLOSE: 1.2950
EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND : BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>-.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 49(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 95.36
HIGH: 95.75
LOW: 95.29
CLOSE: 95.36
USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
MACD => -0.07( BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>51(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5095
HIGH: 1.5135
LOW: 1.5073
CLOSE: 1.5120
GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
MACD => .002( BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 45(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 0.8574
HIGH: 0.8586
LOW: 0.8553
CLOSE: 0.8561
EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>-.003(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>40(BEARISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY EURGBP CHART
HOURLY USDINDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 82.7180
HIGH: 83.8360
LOW: 82.6270
CLOSE: 82.6980
USDINDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>0.22(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>51(BEARISH SIGNAL)
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Mon Mar 18
CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (FEB)
Medium
-4.8% -7.3%
00:01
GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (MAR)
Medium 1.2%
1.1%
00:01
GBP Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (MAR)
Low 1.7%
2.8%
00:30
AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (FEB)
Low 0.0%
-2.2%
00:30
AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (FEB)
Low 9.4%
10.9%
01:30
CNY China February Property Prices
Medium
06:45
CHF SECO March 2013 Economic Forecasts
Medium
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Trade
Balance (euros) (JAN) Low -3.9B -3.5B 10.8B
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) (JAN)
Low 9.0B 10.9B 10.3B
12:30
CAD International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar) (JAN)
Low
-1.92B
14:00
EUR Cyprus Parliament to Vote on Deposit Levy for EU Bailout Plan
High
14:00
USD NAHB Housing Market Index (MAR)
Low
47 46
Tue Mar 19
00:30
AUD RBA Policy Meeting - March Minutes
High
02:00
CNY Conference Board China February Leading Economic Index
Low
04:00
JPY Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa Steps Down
High
05:00
JPY Leading Index (JAN F)
Medium
96.3
05:00
JPY Coincident Index
(JAN F) Low
92.0
05:30
JPY Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (FEB)
Low
0.2%
ECONOMIC CALENDER
05:30
JPY Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY)
(FEB)
Low
0.5%
07:00
EUR EU 25 New Car Registrations (FEB)
Low
-8.7%
09:30
GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)
High
2.8% 2.7%
09:30
GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)
High
2.2% 2.3%
09:30
GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)
Medium
0.7% -0.5%
09:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output Core
n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB)
Medium
1.1% 1.4%
09:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB)
Medium
1.8% 2.0%
09:30
GBP Retail Price Index (YoY) (FEB)
Medium
3.3% 3.3%
09:30
GBP DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) (JAN)
Low
2.4% 3.3%
09:30
GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (MoM) (FEB)
Low
1.5% 1.3%
09:30
GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB)
Low
0.8% 1.8%
09:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (FEB)
Low
0.3% 0.2%
09:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (MoM) (FEB)
Low
0.4% 0.2%
09:30
GBP Retail Price Index (FEB)
Low
09:30
GBP Retail Price Index Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (FEB)
Low
3.2% 3.3%
09:30
GBP Retail Price Index (MoM) (FEB)
Low
0.8% -0.4%
10:00
EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (MAR)
High
48.1 48.2
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic
Sentiment) (MAR)
Medium
42.4
10:00
EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (MAR)
Medium
6 5.2
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (JAN)
Low
-1.7%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (JAN)
Low
-4.8%
12:30
USD Building Permits (MoM) (FEB)
Medium
2.1% -0.6%
12:30
USD Housing Starts (MoM) (FEB)
Medium
2.8% -8.5%
12:30
CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.6% -3.1%
12:30
CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.4% -0.9%
12:30
USD Building Permits (FEB)
Low
923K 904K
12:30
USD Housing Starts (FEB)
Low
915K 890K
21:45
NZD Current Account Balance (4Q)
Medium
-2.950B -4.418B
21:45
NZD Current Account Deficit-GDP Ratio (4Q)
Low
-4.9% -4.7%
23:30
AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.2%
Wed Mar 20
USD Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting
High
00:00
AUD DEWR Internet Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (FEB)
Low
-0.7%
07:00
EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) (FEB)
Medium
1.5% 1.7%
07:00
EUR German Producer Prices (MoM) (FEB)
Low
0.2% 0.8%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (JAN)
Low
27.0B
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (JAN)
Low
13.9B
09:30
GBP Bank of England Releases Monetary Policy Committee
Minutes
High
09:30
GBP Jobless Claims Change (FEB)
High
-5.0K -12.5K
09:30
GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (JAN)
Medium
1.5% 1.4%
09:30
GBP Claimant Count Rate (FEB)
Medium
4.7% 4.7%
09:30
GBP Employment Change (3M/3M) (JAN)
Medium
140K 154K
09:30
GBP ILO Unemployment Rate
(3M) (JAN)
Medium
7.8% 7.8%
09:30
GBP Weekly Earnings exBonus (3M/YoY) (JAN)
Low
1.5% 1.3%
10:00
CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) (MAR)
Medium
10
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 15)
Low
-4.7%
12:30
GBP U.K. Chancellor Osborne Presents 2013 Budget to Parliament
High
13:00
CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (MoM) (FEB)
Low
-0.3%
13:00
CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (YoY) (FEB)
Low
2.7%
13:00
CAD Teranet/National Bank HP Index (FEB)
Low
153
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAR 15)
Low
-1526K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 15)
Low
2624K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 15)
Low
83K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 15)
Low
-3571K
15:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (MAR A)
Medium
-23.2 -23.6
18:00
USD Fed Releases Summary of Economic Projections
High
18:00
USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision (MAR 20)
High
0.25% 0.25%
18:30
USD Fed's Bernanke Holds Press Conference in Washington
High
21:45
NZD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q)
High
0.9% 0.2%
21:45
NZD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q)
High
2.3% 2.0%
23:50
JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (FEB)
Medium
-¥855.9B -¥1629.4B
23:50
JPY Adjusted
Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (FEB)
Low
-¥1099.4B -¥678.9B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAR 15)
Low
-¥838.2B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAR 15)
Low
¥1121.9B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAR 15)
Low
¥764.4B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen)
(MAR 15)
Low
-¥269.6B
23:50
JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (FEB)
Low
-1.2 6.4
23:50
JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (FEB)
Low
14.9 7.3
Thu
Mar 21 00:00
AUD CBAHIA House Affordability (4Q)
Low
65.8
00:30
AUD RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (Australian dollar) (FEB)
Low
393M
01:45
CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (MAR)
Medium
50.9 50.4
02:00
NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) (FEB)
Medium
0.4%
02:00
NZD Credit Card Spending s.a. (MoM)
(FEB)
Medium
-2.5%
04:30
JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (JAN)
Medium
-1.3% 1.8%
05:00
JPY Supermarket Sales (YoY) (FEB)
Low
-4.7%
07:00
CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (FEB)
Medium
2.13B
07:00
CHF Exports (MoM) (FEB)
Low
3.70%
07:00
CHF Imports (MoM) (FEB)
Low
-0.5%
07:00
JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (FEB)
Low
-0.9%
08:00
CHF Money Supply M3 (YoY) (FEB)
Low
9.20%
08:00
EUR French
Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR P)
Low
44.2 43.9
08:00
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR P)
Low
44.0 43.7
08:30
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR A)
Medium
50.5 50.3
08:30
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR A)
Medium
55.0 54.7
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (MAR A)
Medium
48.2 47.9
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager
Index Manufacturing (MAR A)
Medium
48.2 47.9
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR A)
Medium
48.2 47.9
09:30
GBP PSNB ex
Interventions (FEB) Medium
8.0B -11.4B
09:30
GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (FEB)
Medium
-12.0B -35.6B
09:30
GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (FEB)
Medium
8.2B -9.9B
09:30
GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (FEB)
Medium
1.2% 0.2%
09:30
GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) (FEB)
Medium
0.5% -0.6%
09:30
GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB)
Low
0.6% -0.5%
09:30
GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) (FEB)
Low
0.4% -0.6%
11:00
GBP CBI Trends Selling Prices (MAR)
Low
17 20
11:00
GBP CBI Trends Total Orders (MAR)
Low
-15 -14.0
12:30
CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (JAN)
Medium
0.8% -2.1%
12:30
USD Initial Jobless
Claims (MAR 16) Medium
344K 332K
12:30
CAD Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.3% -0.9%
12:30
USD Continuing Claims (MAR 9)
Low
3063K 3024K
12:58
USD Markit US PMI Preliminary (MAR)
Medium
54.8
13:00
USD House Price Index (MoM) (JAN)
Medium
0.7% 0.6%
14:00
USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)
Medium
1.6% 0.4%
14:00
USD Leading Indicators (FEB)
Medium
0.3% 0.2%
14:00
USD Philadelphia Fed. (MAR)
Medium
-3 -12.5
14:00
USD API Monthly
Statistical Report Low
14:00
USD Existing Home Sales (FEB)
Low
5.00M 4.92M
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR
15)
Low
-145
21:00
NZD ANZ NZ Job Ads (MoM) (FEB)
Low
-1.5%
21:45
NZD Net Migration s.a.
(FEB) Low
350
23:00
AUD Conference Board Leading Index (JAN)
Medium
-0.1%
Fri Mar 22
01:35
CNY MNI March Flash Business Sentiment Indicator
Low
09:00
EUR German IFO - Business Climate (MAR)
Medium
107.8 107.4
09:00
EUR German IFO - Current Assessment (MAR)
Medium
110.5 110.2
09:00
EUR German IFO -
Expectations (MAR) Medium
105.0 104.6
12:45
USD Fed's Raskin Speaks on Labor Market in Washington
Low
16:00
USD Fed Revisions of Industrial Production
Low
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