DAILY I FOREX REPORT 22

ND

FEBRUARY 2013

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Dollar Sees Biggest Rally In 8 Months After FOMC Minutes

GBP/USD Collapses And EUR/USD On The Verge Awaiting Risk

EUR/USD- Trading the U.S. Consumer Price Report

Euro Declines as the Output Index Ceases to Uptrend

The Euro declined about 70 points against the US Dollar as the Euro-zone composite output index reversed direction following four months of improved results. The composite index for output fell to 47.3 in February, disappointing expectations for 49.0 and down from 48.6 in January. The Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing was reported at 47.8, and the PMI for services came in at 47.3, as both indexes were worse than expected. Markit’s PMI measures the expansion or contraction in sector activity, based on a 50.0 neutral point.

TRADING TIPS

SELL EURUSD BELOW

1.3177 tgs

1.3163/1.3149 sl 1.3197

SELL USDJPY BELOW

93.14 tgt 93.00/92.85

SL 93.34

SELL GBPUSD BELOW

1.5131 tgt

1.5111/1.5091 SL

1.5161

HEADLINES

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.3273

HIGH: 1.3289

LOW: 1.3177

CLOSE: 1.3189

EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND : BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>-.0007(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 22(BEARIISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 93.67

HIGH: 93.86

LOW: 93.20

CLOSE: 93.27

USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD => -0.04( BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>37(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.5226

HIGH: 1.5236

LOW: 1.5131

CLOSE: 1.5212

GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD => .-0006( BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 36(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 0.8717

HIGH: 0.8758

LOW: 0.8654

CLOSE: 0.8670

EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>-.0008(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>34(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 81.0780

HIGH: 81.4650

LOW: 81.0340

CLOSE: 81.4010

USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS

MACD =>0.217(BULLISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>78(BULLISH SIGNAL)

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Sun Feb 17

21:30

NZD Performance Services Index (JAN)

Low 52.6

51.5

Mon Feb 18

CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

-4.2% -4.5%

00:01

GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (FEB)

Medium 1.1%

2.4%

00:01

GBP Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (FEB)

Low 2.8%

0.2%

00:30

AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (JAN)

Low 10.8%

17.9%

00:30

AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (JAN)

Low -2.4%

2.2%

06:00

JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JAN F)

Medium -26.4%

-26.1%

09:00

EUR Bank of Spain

Publishes Bad Loans Data (Dec)

Medium 10.44%

11.38%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (DEC)

Low 13.9B

15.9B

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (DEC)

Low 27.0B

20.8B

13:00

EUR EU President Van Rompuy Speaks to Parliament on Proposed Budget

High

14:30

EUR ECB's Draghi Speaks at EU Parliament

High

23:50

JPY BOJ Minutes for Meeting on Jan. 21-22

High

Tue Feb 19

00:30

AUD RBA Policy Meeting - February Minutes

High

05:00

JPY Leading Index (DEC F) Medium

93.4

05:00

JPY Coincident Index (DEC F)

Low

92.7

05:30

JPY Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) (JAN)

Low

-1.1%

05:30

JPY Nationwide

Department Store Sales (YoY) (JAN)

Low

-1.3%

07:00

EUR EU 25 New Car Registrations (JAN)

Low

-16.3%

ECONOMIC CALENDER

10:00

EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment)

(FEB)

High

35 31.5

10:00

EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (FEB)

Medium

9 7.1

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (FEB)

Medium

31.2

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (DEC)

Low

-4.7%

10:00

EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

Low

-0.4%

13:30

CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (DEC)

Low

-0.4% 0.7%

13:30

CAD International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar) (DEC)

Low

6.75B 5.62B

15:00

USD NAHB Housing Market Index (FEB)

Low

48 47

21:45

NZD Producer Prices- Outputs (QoQ) (4Q)

Low

-0.9%

21:45

NZD Producer Prices- Inputs (QoQ) (4Q)

Low

-1.0%

23:00

AUD Conference Board Leading Index (DEC)

Medium

-0.2%

23:30

AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.6%

23:50

JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (JAN)

Medium

-¥1384.0B -¥641.5B

23:50

JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (JAN)

Low

2.1 1.9

23:50

JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (JAN)

Low

5.6 -5.8

23:50

JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (JAN)

Low

-¥586.7B -¥800.7B

Wed Feb 20

USD Mortgage Delinquencies (4Q)

Low

7.4%

USD MBA Mortgage Foreclosures (4Q)

Low

4.1%

00:30

AUD Wage Cost Index (QoQ) (4Q)

Low

0.8% 0.7%

00:30

AUD Wage Cost Index (YoY) (4Q)

Low

3.4% 3.7%

01:30

JPY Bank Of Japan Board Member Morimoto Speaks in Kochi

Low

04:30

JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (DEC)

Medium

1.6% -0.3%

07:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN F)

High

1.7% 1.7%

07:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU

Harmonised (YoY) (JAN F)

High

1.9% 1.9%

07:00

EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

1.2% 1.5%

07:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN F)

Medium

-0.5% -0.5%

07:00

EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JAN F)

Medium

-0.7% -0.7%

07:00

JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (JAN)

Low

-2.0%

07:00

EUR German Producer Prices (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.3% -0.3%

09:30

GBP Jobless Claims Change (JAN)

High

-5.5K -12.1K

09:30

GBP Bank of England Releases Monetary Policy Committee Minutes

High

09:30

GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (DEC)

Medium

7.7% 7.7%

09:30

GBP Employment Change (3M/3M) (DEC)

Medium

117K 90K

09:30

GBP Claimant Count Rate (JAN)

Medium

4.8% 4.8%

09:30

GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (DEC)

Medium

1.4% 1.5%

09:30

GBP Weekly Earnings exBonus (3M/YoY) (DEC)

Low

1.3% 1.4%

10:00

CHF ZEW Survey

(Expectations) (FEB) Medium

-6.9

12:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (FEB 15)

Low

-6.4%

13:30

USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

1.5% 1.3%

13:30

USD Producer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.4% -0.3%

13:30

USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

1.7% 2.0%

13:30

USD Housing Starts (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

-3.6% 12.1%

13:30

USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.2% 0.1%

13:30

USD Housing Starts (JAN) Low

920K 954K

13:30

USD Building Permits

(MoM) (JAN) Low

1.2% 1.0%

13:30

USD Building Permits (JAN)

Low

920K 909K

14:00

CAD Teranet/National Bank HP Index (JAN)

Low

153.45

14:00

CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (YoY) (JAN)

Low

3.1%

14:00

CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (MoM) (JAN)

Low

-0.2% -0.4%

15:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (FEB A)

Medium

-23.2 -23.9

19:00

USD Fed Releases Minutes from Jan 29-30 FOMC Meeting

High

21:00

NZD ANZ NZ Job Ads (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.4%

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (FEB 15)

Low

-¥228.6B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (FEB 15)

Low

-¥645.0B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (FEB 15)

Low

¥212.9B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (FEB 15)

Low

-¥261.6B

Thu

Feb 21 00:30

AUD RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (Australian dollar) (JAN)

Low

752M

01:35

CNY MNI February Flash Business Sentiment Indicator

Low

02:00

CNY Conference Board China January Leading Economic Index

Low

05:00

JPY Supermarket Sales

(YoY) (JAN) Low

-1.5%

07:00

CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (JAN)

Medium

1.70B 1.00B

07:00

CHF Imports (MoM) (JAN) Low

5.5%

07:00

CHF Exports (MoM) (JAN) Low

0.3% -1.5%

08:00

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB P)

Low

44.4 43.6

08:00

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index

Manufacturing (FEB P)

Low

43.8 42.9

08:00

CHF Real Estate Index Family Homes (4Q)

Low

413.1

08:00

CHF Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JAN)

Low

9.8%

08:30

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB A)

Medium

55.5 55.7

08:30

EUR German Purchasing Manager Index

Medium

50.5 49.8

Manufacturing (FEB A)

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (FEB A)

Medium

49 48.6

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (FEB A)

Medium

48.5 47.9

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (FEB A)

Medium

49 48.6

09:30

GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (JAN)

Medium

-9.5B 13.2B

09:30

GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (JAN)

Medium

-35.0B 1.3B

09:30

GBP PSNB ex Interventions (JAN)

Medium

-8.7B 15.4B

11:00

GBP CBI Trends Selling Prices (FEB)

Low

15 21

11:00

GBP CBI Trends Total Orders (FEB)

Low

-15 -20

13:30

USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

High

1.6% 1.7%

13:30

USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (JAN)

High

1.8% 1.9%

13:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 16)

Medium

355K 341K

13:30

USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.1% 0.0%

13:30

USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.2% 0.1%

13:30

USD Continuing Claims (FEB 9)

Low

3150K 3114K

13:30

USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (JAN)

Low

230.304 229.601

13:30

USD Consumer Price Index

Core Index s.a. (JAN) Low

231.938 231.475

13:58

USD Markit US PMI Preliminary (FEB)

Medium

55.5

15:00

USD Philadelphia Fed. (FEB)

Medium

1 -5.8

15:00

USD Leading Indicators (JAN)

Medium

0.2% 0.5%

15:00

USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

-0.8% -1.0%

15:00

USD Existing Home Sales (JAN)

Low

4.90M 4.94M

15:00

USD API Monthly Statistical Report

Low

15:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (FEB 15)

Low

-157

16:00

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (FEB 15)

Low

-3677K

16:00

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (FEB 15)

Low

560K

16:00

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (FEB 15)

Low

-1118K

16:00

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (FEB 15)

Low

-803K

17:30

USD Fed's Bullard Speaks About Monetary Policy in New York

Low

18:00

USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in New York

Low

Fri Feb 22

01:30

CNY China January Property Prices

Medium

02:00

NZD Credit Card Spending s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

1.0%

02:00

NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) (JAN)

Medium

4.6%

02:15

USD Fed's Fisher Speaks on Economy in Dallas ()

Low

07:00

EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q F)

High

0.4% 0.4%

07:00

EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (4Q F)

High

-0.6% -0.6%

07:00

EUR German Gross

Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (4Q F)

High

0.1% 0.1%

07:00

EUR German Private Consumption (4Q)

Low

0.1% 0.3%

07:00

EUR German Imports (4Q) Low

-1.0% 1.0%

07:00

EUR German Government Spending (4Q)

Low

0.2% 0.4%

07:00

EUR German Exports (4Q) Low

-2.0% 1.4%

07:00

EUR German Domestic Demand (4Q)

Low

-0.1% 0.0%

07:00

EUR German Construction Investment (4Q)

Low

-0.8% 1.5%

07:00

EUR German Capital Investment (4Q)

Low

-1.3% 0.2%

09:00

EUR German IFO - Current

Assessment (FEB) Medium

108.5 108

09:00

EUR German IFO - Business Climate (FEB)

Medium

104.9 104.2

09:00

EUR German IFO - Expectations (FEB)

Medium

101.4 100.5

10:00

EUR EU Issues Winter Economic Forecasts in Brussels

Medium

13:30

CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

High

0.7% 0.8%

13:30

CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (JAN)

High

1.1% 1.1%

13:30

CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (DEC)

Medium

-0.4% 0.2%

13:30

CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.2% -0.6%

13:30

CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (JAN)

Medium

0.2% -0.6%

13:30

CAD Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) (DEC)

Low

0.1% -0.3%

13:30

CAD Core CPI s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low

0.1%

13:30

CAD Consumer Price Index s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

Low

-0.1%

13:30

CAD Consumer Price Index (JAN)

Low

121.2

15:15

USD Fed's Powell, Rosengren Speak in New York

Low

23:30

USD Fed's Tarullo Speaks on Regulation in New York

Low

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