Daily Agri Report, March 30

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Commodities Daily Report

Agricultural Commodities

Saturday| March 30, 2013

www.angelcommodities.com

Content

News & Market Highlights

Chana

Sugar

Oilseed Complex

Spices Complex

Kapas/Cotton

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Market Highlights (% change) as on March 28, 2013

Last Prev. day WoW MoM

Sensex 18836 0.70 0.23 -0.14 1

Nifty 5683 0.73 0.42 -0.18

INR/$ 54.29 -0.36 -0.30 -0.16 Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl 97.23 0.92 5.17 5.63 -

Comex Gold - $/oz 1595 -0.06 -1.18 1.08 -

.Source: Reu

Wheat harvesting may be delayed in Punjab, HaryanaWheat harvesting is set to get delayed by 10—15 days in wheat growi

states of Punjab and Haryana because of untimely rains a

unanticipated low temperature. Though there were some reports of cr

flattening in a few areas of Punjab because of rains lashing various par

of the northern region, farm experts asserted that there was not going

be any adverse impact on overall output of winter crop in both the

states. However, experts fear of damage to crop if rains accompanied

thunderstorm occur in wheat growing areas. “There is going to be del

of more than 10 days in harvesting of wheat crop in Punjab and Haryadue to rains and unexpected cool temperature prevailing in these pa

of the country,” said Karnal—based Directorate of Wheat Researc

Project Director, Indu Sharma. ( Source: Business Line)

Sugar market looks to new fiscal for directionSugar spot and futures prices have been heading towards south for ov

a month on ample supply and slack demand. On the Vashi wholesa

terminal market, spot rates dropped further by Rs 20-30 a quintal o

Friday. Naka prices declined by Rs 20 as producers sold sugar at Rs 10-

lower previous day evening. The sentiment was weak due to high

selling. Sources said that due to year ending and month-end, trade

were not interested in making a big deal. Demand in start of the ne

month will decide the further trend. Government has declared amp

quota for the next six month (April-September) at 104 lakh tonnes whi

is 7.50 lakh tonnes more than same period last year. ( Source: Business Line)

Rain lashes wheat-growing areas, still record output seenErratic weather has affected the standing wheat crop in isolated pocke

of northern States, but still the country may produce a record harvest

96 million tonnes this year. “The recent scattered rains accompanied

thunderstorms has affected about 2-3 per cent of the wheat crop are

However, the output would still be higher than last year at around 96 m

as temperature has largely been favourable for the crop,” said In

Sharma, Director of the Karnal-based Directorate of Wheat Researc

Wheat production stood at a record 93.9 mt last year. Wheat has be

planted in over 298 million hectares this year, almost the same as la

year. In recent days, major wheat growing States such as Punja

Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and even Madhya Pradesh have receiv

scattered rain and thunderstorms due to western disturbance. O

Thursday, parts of Uttar Pradesh, Delhi and its surrounding are

received rains. ( Source: Business Line)

Cotton Corp seeks to export 10 lakh balesPublic sector Cotton Corporation of India has sought permission

export 10 lakh bales (170 kg each) of cotton - roughly half the stock he

by it - in a representation to the Directorate General of Foreign Trad

(DGFT) to benefit from the higher international prices. The Text

Ministry is also keeping an eye on rising registration of shipments f

exports by private traders as high exports could lead to a shortage

cotton in the domestic market, two Textile Ministry officials told Busine

Line. “We want CCI to export some of its cotton stock as it would ge

higher price in the international market. ( Source: Business Line)

News in brief Labour shortage may impact wheat procurement in PunjabWith wheat procurement in Punjab likely to commence from Monday,

commission agents in the state are busy arranging labour. While the

official procurement continues till June, the highest arrivals happen in

April. The Food Corporation of India ( FCI) has set an ambitious target to

procure 13- 14 million tonnes this season. Thousands of labourers arerequired for loading, unloading, cleaning, filling the gunny bags and lifting

the bags. Punjab depends on labourers from other states such as Bihar

and Uttar Pradesh ( UP) to carry out procurement. However, there has

been acute labour shortage since the rollout of the Mahatma Gandhi

National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, as labourers now get

employment in their own states. ( Source: Business Standard)

Sugar output in India to drop on dry weatherSugar output in India, the biggest producer after Brazil, is set to decline

for a second year as a drought curbs planting, potentially increasing

imports. The harvest will fall 6.5 per cent to 23 mt in the year starting

October 1 from 24.6 mt this year, according to the median of estimates

of four traders, an analyst, aproducer and an industry official compiled by

Bloomberg. That would be less than the local demand of more than 24mt in 2013- 2014, said Narendra Murkumbi, managing director of Shree

Renuka Sugars, Indias biggest refiner. Sugar has slumped 50 per cent in

New York since reaching athree- decade high in February 2011, as

production from Brazil to Thailand and China increased, widening a

global glut. Falling Indian production after three years of surplus may

boost imports and help curb a slide in prices, which has partly helped

global food costs tracked by the United Nations Food & Agriculture

Organisation to fall for a fifth month in February. ( Source: Business Standard)

Palm oil prices at lowest since March 19Malaysian palm oil futures fell to a more- than- one- week low on

Thursday, with investors avoiding risky moves as they await key industry

export data due next week. Fears over Cyprus’s bailout deal damaging

the euro zones fragile recovery roiled global financial and commoditymarkets, including palm, most of this week and kept investors on edge.

Palm’s dismal export performance in the first 25 days of the month also

upset market players and weighed on prices, which have lost more than

three per cent this week. Exports fell 7.5 per cent over the period from

March 1- 25, from a month ago, due to a slowdown in shipments of

crude palm oil. Traders are now waiting for cargo surveyor data on

exports for the full month, due next Monday, and industry regulator data

on output and inventory, due in midApril, to gauge palms direction in the

coming months. ( Source: Business Standard)

It’s a hot potato, thanks to steady demand You may soon have to shell out more for your favourite potato wafers or

wedges. In just a fortnight, potato prices in West Bengal, the top

producer, have inched up by almost Rs 60 a quintal in the wholesalemarket. The price rise effect will be felt particularly in Maharashtra,

Odisha, Tamil Nadu and Bihar that buy the tuber from the eastern State.

Prices are likely to inch up by Rs 100-150 a quintal in the next one/two

months because of the steady demand from other States, market

sources said. The wholesale price of the Jyoti variety is ruling at Rs 560 a

quintal compared with Rs 500 two weeks ago. ( Source: Business Line)

Financial year-end keeps away edible oil stockistsBarring groundnut oil which rose by Rs 10, all other edible oils ruled

unchanged on Friday. Extended loss in Malaysian palm oil futures

tracking previous day’s late evening bearish US Department of

Agriculture soya reports pulled down all market sentiments. In Mumbai,

volumes remained negligible and isolated as stockists stayed off due to

financial year end.( Source: Business Line)







Market Highlights as on March 28, 20

% change

Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM

Chana Spot - NCDEX

(Delhi)

Rs/qtl 3277 -0.69 -5.01 -6.63 -

Chana- NCDEX

Apr'13 Futures

Rs/qtl 3334 -0.69 -2.60 0.00 -

Source: Reut

Technical Chart - Chana NCDEX April contract

Source: Teleq

Technical Outlook valid for Mar 30, 201

Contract Unit Support Resistance

Chana Apr Futures Rs./qtl 3285-3310 3355-3378

ChanaAfter declined on Thursday on account of increasing arrivals of new crop

in the physical markets coupled with higher output expectations. The

spot as well as the futures settled 0.69% and 0.69% lower respectively.

Arrivals have gained momentum in MP, the largest chana producing state

and shall soon commence in Rajasthan, the second largest producer.

Thus, sharp upside is capped in the chana prices.

New chana desi crop contain around 10 -12% moisture.

The government has extended ban on export of pulses till March 31,

2014. According to DGFT, there is an exception with export of kabuli

chana, organic pulses and lentils being allowed up to a ceiling of 10,000

metric tonnes per annum.

Chana Sowing

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support

prices (MSP), have helped expand overall acreage in 2012-13 season. The

Centre has hiked the MSP by 14 per cent to Rs 3,200 a quintal for chana

and as part of its strategy to encourage farmers to grow more pulses to

reduce import dependence.

Chana sowing in the current season is 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh hacompared to previous year. Acreage is up in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, MP

and AP at 15.7 lakh ha, 12.53 lakh ha, 32.99 lakh ha and 7.33 lakh ha

respectively.

Production

According to second advance Estimates released on 8th

Feb 2013, Total

pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 17.58 mn tn, down

3.3% compared to previous year. The target for 2012-13 pulses crop

output was set at 18.24 million tonne during the year. However, drought

conditions have hampered kharif pulses output, which has been only

partially offset by Rabi pulses output, especially chana.

Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 23% lower at

5.48 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 8.72% higher at 12.09 mn

tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12.

There has been a sharp increase in the chana output estimates on the

back of higher acreage and good yield. Chana output is expected to

breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for

2012-13. In its first advance estimates chana output was pegged at 7.9

mn tn. However, erratic weather in M.P. may lower the yield.

Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely

to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source:

Agriwatch).

Trade Scenario

According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of February declined to

0.46 lakh metric tonnes compared to 2.31 lakh metric tonnes during the

previous month.

India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher

availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen

boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall.

In Australia, total chickpea production in 2012 –13 is estimated to have

increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.

Outlook

Chana is expected to continue to decline today. Arrivals of chana may

increase further once harvesting commences from the second largest

producing state, Rajasthan. Increasing arrival pressure may keep chana

prices under downside pressure. However, robust buying by the stockists

at lower levels may prevent sharp fall in the chana prices.








% Change

Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM Yo

Sugar Spot- NCDEX

(Kolhapur) Rs/qtl 3033 -0.20 -2.13 -4.45

Sugar M- NCDEX

Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl 2893 -0.75 -2.40 -4.96

Source:

International Prices as on March 28, 201

% Change


Sugar No 5- Liffe-

May'13 Futures

$/tonne 503.3 -1.00 -4.75 -0.44

Sugar No 11-ICE

May '13 Futures

$/tonne 392.44 -1.06 -3.02 -3.18

.Source:

Technical Chart - Sugar NCDEX April contract

Source: Te



Sugar Apr NCDEX Futures Rs./qtl 2860-2880 2905-2920

SugarSugar futures declined on Thursday extending preceding session’s

losses on account of release of higher non levy quota for the next

six months. However, reports that government may take sugar

decontrol decision this week, supported prices at lower levels.

The Central Government has decided to make available quantityof 104 lakh tons of sugar, as non-levy quota for open market sale,

for the 6 months of April, 2013 to September, 2013.

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs will take up the issue of

sugar decontrol during its meeting on Thursday, according to Union

Minister of State for Food and Consumer Affairs K.V. Thomas.

Barring two key regulations with respect to fixing sugarcane price and

sharing of 70 per cent revenue by sugar firms with farmers, the

Rangarajan Committee report has suggested giving freedom to mills to

sell sugar in the open market and having a stable export and import

policy.

Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said that the sugar output in

2013-14 may fall to around 24 mn tn against current year’s outputof 24.5 mn tn. There are reports that some mills in Maharashtra

have stopped crushing due to non availability of cane.

Domestic Production and Exports

India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on

Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian

Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said last week.

Indian sugar mills produced 21.05 mn tn of the sweetener between Oct.

1 and March 15, down 1% from a year ago.

With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are

estimated at 30.8 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22.

5 mln tn for 2012-13. Exports are not viable as international prices havealso declined significantly.

Global Sugar Updates

Liffe sugar as well as Raw sugar Futures on ICE settled 1% and 1.06%

lower on Thursday on account of expectations of abundant supplies from

the 2013-14 harvest in the centre-south of Brazil and other leading

producers, such as Thailand, Mexico and the United States.

According to FO Litch, Brazil's center-south sugar production is expected

to reach 36.2 million tonnes in 2013/14, up from 34.1 million tonnes in

the previous season.

Czarnikow on Wednesday raised its forecast for a projected global sugar

surplus to 9.1 mn tn, raw value, up from December‘s pro jection of 7.8 mntn in 2012-13, citing higher-than-expected production in the key centre-

south region of Brazil.

The main adjustment on the production side is the increase in CS Brazil

output following a successful end to the crushing season at a new record

high of 34.1 million tonnes.

Outlook

Prices are expected to trade on a negative note due to higher levy quota.

Continuous selling by mills at lower rates due to financial year ending and

need based demand is keeping sugar markets under pressure. However,

emergence of demand from the bulk manufacturers may support the

prices at lower levels. Any decision by the government on the decontrol

front may also support prices.








% Change


Soybean Spot- NCDEX

(Indore)

Rs/qtl 3747 0.40 3.42 10.73

Soybean- NCDEX Apr '13

Futures

Rs/qtl 3722 -0.28 5.48 11.94

Ref Soy oil Spot-

NCDEX(Indore)

Rs/10 kgs 693.3 0.34 0.94 0.83

Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Apr

'13 Futures

Rs/10 kgs 693.9 0.00 2.57 1.91

Source: Reuter

as on March 28, 2

International Prices Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM

Soybean- CBOT-

May'13 Futures

USc/

Bushel 1405 -3.37 -3.05 -4.71

Soybean Oil - CBOT-

May'13 Futures

USc/lbs 50.11 -1.40 -0.61 2.64 -

Source: Reuters

Crude Palm Oil as on March 29, 2

% Change

Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM

CPO-Bursa

Malaysia – Apr '13

Contract

MYR/Tonne 2340 -1.35 -4.88 -1.47

CPO-MCX- Mar '13

Futures

Rs/10 kg 456.2 -0.76 0.22 1.13

Source: Re

RM Seed as on March 28, 2

Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM

RM Seed Spot-

NCDEX (Jaipur)

Rs/100 kgs 3433 0.45 -0.51 -4.65

RM Seed- NCDEX

Apr'13 Futures

Rs/100 kgs 3465 0.20 0.46 2.27

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart –Soybean NCDEX April contra

Source: Teleq



Soy Oil Apr NCDEX Futures Rs./qtl 688-691 699-702

Soybean NCDEX Apr Futures Rs./qtl 3645-3685 3760-3800

RM Seed NCDEX Apr Futures Rs./qtl 3420-3445 3480-3495

CPO MCX Apr Futures Rs./qtl 455-458 465-467

OilseedsSoybean: After rising sharply over the few sessions, soybean

futures declined from higher levels on Thursday due to profit taking

at higher levels. However, prices recovered from lower levels

towards the end due to lower supplies in the domestic markets.

Exports of Soybean meal during February, 2013 was 5,77,589 tones

as compared to 3,70,524 tonnes in February, 2012 showing anincrease by 55.88% over the last year.

According to the second advance estimates, 2012-13 oilseed output

is pegged at 29.4 mn tn, down by 1.1%, while soybean output is

pegged higher at 12.9 mn tn, up 3.2%.

International Markets

Larger than expected stocks report released by the USDA, Soybean

Futures on CBOT declined sharply by 3.37% on Friday. Stocks were

reported at 999 mn bushels against expectations of 905 mn bushels.

US soybean plantings intentions for the 2013/14 crop year reported

at 77.126 mn acres, below market forecasts for 78.394 mn acres.

Informa trimmed its forecast of U.S. 2013 soybean plantings to

78.457 million acres, from 78.777 million in January, but it is still upfrom the 77.198 mn acres seeded to soy in 2012.

There are reports that China has cancelled some cargoes from Brazil

due shipment delays. China's April imports will likely be less than 4.5

mn tn, lower than market expectations of about 5 mn tn, due to

severe port congestion in Brazil that has delayed shipments.

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil settled unchanged on Thursday while

CPO settled lower by 0.76% tracking weak BMD prices.

India's imports of palm oil could rise more than 17% in the year to

October 2013 to stand at 9 mn tn, compared with 7.67 mn tn of

palm oil in 2011/12 as the edible oil is the cheapest available,

despite an import duty.

India's vegetable oil imports fell about 17 percent to 969,175 tonnes

last month, with palm oil imports dropping to 805,362 tonnes.

According to Dorab Mistry, Malaysian palm oil futures could rise to

2,400-2,700 ringgit ($770 to $865) per tons by the end of May due

to weaker production and falling trend in palm oil inventories. By

end of June 2013, Malaysian palm oil stocks will dip below 2 mn tn

and Indonesian stocks would below 4 mn tn.

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard Futures gained 0.2% on Thursday

tracking positive edible oil market while increasing arrival pressure

of new crop capped sharp upside. Higher output expectations also

exerted downside pressure on the prices. Sowing of Mustard seed is

up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha. Agriculture ministry in its third advance

estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%. MSP

of mustard seed is fixed at Rs 3000 per qtl.

Outlook

Soybean prices are expected to trade with upward bias on dwindling

supplies in the domestic markets. However, higher stocks in the US

coupled with ongoing harvesting pressure in South America may

pressurize prices.

Mustard seed may also trade higher tracking positive edible

oilseeds.

Soy oil and CPO is expected to trade higher on expectations of

higher exports, lower stocks. Prices may find support on

expectations that output may fall due to seasonally lower yield.







h


% Change

Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM Y

Pepper Spot-

NCDEX (Kochi)

Rs/qtl 36314 -0.35 -0.78 -7.88 -9

Pepper- NCDEX

Apr '13 Futures

Rs/qtl 35860 1.16 0.93 -4.67 -1

Source: Reu

Technical Chart – Black Pepper NCDEX April contract

Source: Teleq



Black Pepper NCDEX Apr Futures Rs/qtl 35430-35630 36100-362

Black PepperPepper Futures traded on a positive note due to good demand for the

Kerala crop. Interstate traders, especially from Tamil Nadu are actively

buying the Kerala crop. Low stocks in the warehouses coupled with thin

supplies have supported the prices. However, higher supplies from

Karnataka region kept spot prices under check. Karnataka crop is trading

at lower levels due inferior quality. Food Safety and Standards Authorityof India sealed the entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in

Kerala of about 8,000 tonnes. Some exports of Karnataka pepper from

Mangalore port have been reported. However, exports demand for

Indian pepper in the international markets is weak due to price parity.

The Spot settled 0.35% lower while the Futures settled 1.16% higher on

Thursday.

According to a circular issued by NCDEX on 09/02/2013, launch of June

2013 expiry contract in Pepper which is scheduled on February 11,

2013, has been postponed till further notice. The revised launch date

will be announced in due course.

Spices Board has announced plans to import high yielding Madagascar

variety that was behind the record productivity in Vietnam. It could raise

productivity of Indian pepper from 2,000 kg/ha to 7,000 kg/ha.Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $6,925/tn

(C&F, New York). Vietnam’s Asta is quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn, Indonesia

GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn and Brazil Asta is quoted at $6,600/tn.

Exports and ImportsIndia’s pepper exports in 2012 have been reported at just 12,000 tonnes

while imports reported at 15,000 tonnes making India a net importer.

(Source: Agriwatch )

According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development

(MARD) exports of pepper in 2012 stood at 116,962 mt, Vietnam shipped

12000 mt of pepper in January 2013.

Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 9% in

2012 period to 62,458 tn as compared to 68,489 tn in 2011.

Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared

to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599

tonnes in the last year. Brazil exported 25,900 tn pepper during Jan-Nov

2012, around 20% lower compared with 32,650 tn in the same period

last year. Exports from Malaysia 8,300 tn pepper during Jan-Oct 2012,

lower by 30% last year while exports in October stood at 1,077 mt in.

Production and ArrivalsThe arrivals in the spot market were reported at 19 tonnes while off

takes were reported at 17 tonnes on Thursday.

As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up

compared with 3.18 lk tn in 2011. Production for 2013 is projected at

316832 tn. Indonesian pepper output is expected to rise by 24% and in

Vietnam by 10%. According to estimates, pepper output in Vietnam is

estimated to be 1.05 lakh tonne in 2012 as compared to 1.1 lakh tonne in

2011. Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year.

Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by

3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to

2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) Pepper production in

2012-13 is expected around 60,000-63,000 tonnes. Harvesting of pepper

in some regions in Kerala are already complete.

OutlookPepper is expected to trade on a mixed note today. Higher arrivals of

pepper from Karnataka may put pressure on the prices. However, low

stocks coupled with good demand from the upcountry markets may

support prices at lower levels. Reports that farmers are holding back

stocks may also support prices at lower levels.








% Change

Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM

Jeera Spot- NCDEX

(Unjha)

Rs/qtl 13343 0.00 -0.41 0.16

Jeera- NCDEX Apr

'13 Futures

Rs/qtl 13150 1.02 0.17 1.23 1

Source: Reu

Technical Chart – Jeera NCDEX April contract

Source: Telequ


% Change

Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM Yo

Turmeric Spot-

NCDEX (N'zmbad)

Rs/qtl 6414 0.00 -1.65 18.33 67.

Turmeric- NCDEX

Apr '13 Futures

Rs/qtl 6450 -1.44 -6.14 4.47 51.

Technical Chart – Turmeric NCDEX April contrac

Source: Telequ

Technical Outlook Valid for Mar 30, 2013

Unit Support Resistance

Jeera NCDEX Apr Futures Rs/qtl 12980-13055 13230-1335

Turmeric NCDEX April Futures Rs/qtl 6310-6380 6500-6540

JeeraAfter trading on a positive note on Thursday on account of good

export as well as domestic demand. However, higher arrivals of the

new crop have capped sharp gains. Arrivals of the new crop are

averaging around 26,000 bags/ day and are likely to improve in the

coming days. New crop from Rajasthan is expected to enter the

markets from April. Higher sowing as well as conducive weather inGujarat, the main jeera growing region has increased output

expectations. According to Gujarat State Agri Dept. sowing in Gujarat

is reported at 3.352 lakh ha in 2013 compared with 3.719 lakh ha last

year. According to the Rajasthan State Budget 2013-14, it has

exempted jeera from VAT. The spot settled unchanged while the

Futures settled 1.02% higher on Thursday.

According to markets sources the exports target has already been

achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Supply

concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that

export orders may still be diverted to India from the international

markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil

war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000

tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations.

Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international

market at $2,400 tn (FOB Mumbai) while Syria and Turkey are not

offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected

to be around 5-6 lakh bags.

Production, Arrivals and ExportsArrivals in Unjha were reported at 45,000 tn on Monday. Production

of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 38-40 lakh bags (55 kgs each),

same as last year.

According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood

at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an

increase of 6%.

OutlookJeera Futures are expected to continue to trade higher today due to

export as well as domestic demand. However, higher arrivals of thenew crop may cap sharp upside in the prices. In the medium term,

prices are likely to stay firm as Syria and Turkey have stopped

shipments.

TurmericTurmeric Futures declined on Thursday on account of higher supplies

of the new crop. However, good export and domestic demand coupled

with output concerns limited downside. Unseasonal rains in Andhra

Pradesh have damaged about 9240 tonnes of turmeric. The Spot

settled unchanged while the Futures settled 1.44% lower on Thursday.

Production, Arrivals and ExportsArrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi stood at 11,000 bags and

20,000 bags respectively on Monday.

Expectations are that production may be lower by 40-50%. There are

reports of some crop damage in Erode region. Turmeric production in

2012-13 is expected around 50 lakh bags. Production in Nizamabad is

expected around 12 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is projected at

historical high of 10.62 lakh tn. It is estimated that next year’s

carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags.

According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012

increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011.

Outlook

Turmeric is expected to trade with a negative bias. Higher supplies of

the fresh crop, huge carryover stocks and higher margin on the long

side may pressurize prices. However, good overseas as well as

domestic demand coupled with crop damage and lower output

concerns may support prices.






Market Highlights as on March 28

% Change

Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM

NCDEX Kapas Apr

Futures

Rs/20 kgs 934 -0.80 -3.11 -7.20

MCX Cotton Mar

Futures

Rs/Bale 18720 0.38 -0.05 -0.05

Source: R

International Prices as on March 28

% Change


ICE Cotton USc/Lbs 88.46 -0.08 0.29 8.69

Cot look A Index 81.35 0.00 0.00 0.00

Source: Re

Technical Chart - Kapas NCDEX April contract

Source: Te

Technical Chart - Cotton MCX March contract

Source: Te


Contract Unit Support Resistanc

Kapas NCDEX April Futures Rs/20 kgs 917-926 945-956

Cotton MCX March Futures Rs/bale 18780-18900 19180-192

KapasNCDEX Kapas declined by 0.8% while MCX Cotton gained 0.38% on

Thursday. Prices have declined sharply on reports state-run Cotton

Corporation of India (CCI) would offload stocks in the open market to

augment supplies. However, there are expectations of higher exports.

Lower supplies in the domestic markets and rising cotton prices have

caused concerns for textile industry, which is demanding government todirect CCI and NAFED to offload the cotton stock to domestic mills.

CCI is expected to offload 4 lakh bales in the domestic market and NAFED

will sell 3.63 lakh cotton bales from the first week of April 2013.

India's imports of cotton this year could reach 1.5 mn bales, missing

earlier estimates of more than 2 mn as the govt may to start selling its

stockpiles.

Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October 2012 until

February 10, 2013 were down at 183.4 lakh bales, down from 189.27

lakh bales a year earlier.

Domestic Production and Consumption

According to Cotton Advisory Board’s (CAB) estimates (23th Jan 2013) for2012-13 season that commenced in October, domestic cotton

production is pegged 330 lakh bales, down from the previous year’s

estimates of 353 lakh bales.

However, higher exports and domestic consumption can be met through

revised higher opening stocks of 40 lakh bales and higher imports.

After witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could

witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along

with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports

at 80 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.

Global Cotton Updates

ICE Cotton futures traded on a flat note and settled marginally lower by

0.08% on Thursday. According to the USDA report released on Thursday,planting intentions for the 2013-14 season are said to be at a 4 year low.

Also, there are expectations of good export demand from China. Reports

of India and China releasing stocks from the state reserve led to a sharp

decline last week.

China, the world’s largest consumer, is expected to sell about 3 mn tn of

cotton this year from state reserves of around 10 mn tn.

USDA has initially forecasted US Cotton acreage for 2013-14 season, at

smallest in 20 yrs, however, with recent surge in prices, farmers may

decide to plant more cotton. The planting intention data is schedule to

be released on 28th march 2013.

Outlook

In the current week, we expect Cotton prices to trade on a mixed note

with a positive bias after US cotton planting intentions were reported at

a 4 year low. However, sharp upside maybe capped as supplies may

increase in the open market.

Daily Agri Report, March 30

Documents

Transcript of Daily Agri Report, March 30