Daily Agri Report, March 16

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Commodities Daily Report

Agricultural Commodities

Saturday| March 16, 2013

www.angelcommodities.com

Content

News & Market Highlights

Chana

Sugar

Oilseed Complex

Spices Complex

Kapas/Cotton

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Market Highlights (% change) as on March 15, 2013

Last Prev. day WoW MoM

Sensex 19428 -0.73 -1.30 -0.92

Nifty 5873 -0.62 -1.23 -1.02

INR/$ 54.03 -0.29 -0.59 0.38 Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl 93.45 0.45 1.63 -3.67 -1

Comex Gold - $/oz 1593 0.12 1.01 -3.14 -

.Source: Reu

Spot rubber prices improvePhysical rubber prices improved on Friday. The market seemed to

moving with the hope that the steps taken by the Government

increase the import duty would help the commodity to recover from t

current declines. There were enquiries from certain major consumi

industries, an observer said. Sheet rubber firmed up to Rs 162.50 (

162.00) a kg both at Kottayam and Kochi according to traders and t

Rubber Board. The trend was partially mixed as ISNR 20 finish

unchanged on comparatively dull volumes. ( Source: Business Line)

Production dips even as 90% land is under Bt Cotton cultivationGovernment is ascertaining reasons behind dip in Bt Cotton productio

which covers more than 90 per cent of the total cotton area in t

country. “We are seriously ascertaining what are the reasons for t

decline in Bt cotton production,” Minister of State for Agriculture an

Food Processing Charan Das Mahant told Rajya Sabha. Mahant said yie

of cotton in the country was recorded at 499 kg and 491 kg per hectare

2010-11 and 2011-12 respectively. However, in 2012-13, it was estimat

at 488 kg a hectare with “more than 90 per cent of total area in t

country is now under Bt Cotton cultivation.” ( Source: Financial Express)

Tea delegation hopeful of 25 mkg export to IranArising from the positive response Iranian tea importers showed to la

week’s visit of Indian tea delegation, the Tea Board is hopeful of raisi

the country’s shipment to Iran to 25 mn kg (mkg) by 2015. Iran is

important market for Indian tea but because of political uncertainties

the Gulf region, India’s overall shipment to West Asia and North Afri

including to Iran, suffered in the last few years. Tea exports to Ir

dropped from 13.92 mkg in 2008-09 to 13.28 mkg in 2009-10 b

managed to rise to 15.89 mkg in 2010-11 before dropping to 11.05 m

in 2011-12. “The official data for 2012-13 is awaited but the Tea Boa

has targeted to export 25 mkg by 2015. Arising from our prese

delegation to Iran, we are hopeful of reaching this”, V. George Jenn

Tea Board’s Director of Tea Promotion for WANA, told Business Lin( Source: Business Line)

Coconut industry hails Kerala budget proposalsThe coconut industry has hailed the allocation of Rs 25 crore in the Kera

budget to the sector as ‘a positive step’. T.K. Jose, chairman, CoconDevelopment Board, said the coconut sector would need governme

support for its overall development. The recent Union Budget had al

allocated funds, especially for replanting and rejuvenation of cocon

trees. “The Board has asked for similar support from the Sta

Government and we are happy to see that the Finance Minister h

responded to our request,” he said. ( Source: Business Line)

Agriculture share in GDP may fall to 13.7 pcThe share of agriculture and allied sectors in India's GDP is likely

decline to 13.7% in 2012-13 on account of higher growth in the non-far

sectors, Parliament was informed today. In a written reply to Raj

Sabha, Minister of State for Agriculture Tariq Anwar said the contributi

of agriculture and allied sector to the GDP of the country declined fro

14.6% in 2009-10 to 14.5% in 2010-11 and further to 14.1% in 2011-1( Source: Economic Times)

News in brief Isma revises sugar output marginally upwardsSugar mills body, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (Isma), revised

production estimates marginally upwards, as higher- thanexpected

recovery was reported in Uttar Pradesh, India’s second- largest producer.

From its earlier estimate of 24.3 million tonnes ( mt), refined sugar

output is now expected to be 24.6 mt. “Considering the actual output sofar and production trends from some states, we have reviewed the

estimates for the current season and have revised them to 24.6 mt,

about 0.3 mt higher than the previous estimates,” Isma said in a note. ( Source: Business Standard)

MCX to move market regulator on commodity transaction taxThe Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) held its board meeting on Friday

to gauge the impact of the commodity transaction tax (CTT) on its

business prospects. The Board has decided to make a detailed

presentation to the market regulator, the Forward Markets Commission

(FMC), on the impact of this levy. The Government levied a CTT of 0.01

per cent on non-agriculture commodity derivatives in the Budget

presented last month. MCX fears that this tax will lead to several job loss

in non-urban areas, distortion in the price discovery mechanism, increasein hedging cost and drop in trading volumes. In a communication to the

FMC, the exchange will highlight the unprecedented tax discrimination

between derivatives in agricultural and non-agricultural commodities,

shift of volumes to illegal (dabba) trading platforms and to the

international markets, said MCX in statement. ( Source: Business Line)

Karnataka coffee belt gets good blossom showersCoffee-growing regions of Kodagu, Chikmagalur and Hassan in Karnataka

have received good blossom showers. “Blossom shower in the coffee belt

in Karnataka is very good this year. Very good for Arabica as compared to

poor to patchy rains last year,” Bose Mandana, a senior coffee planter

from Suntikoppa in Kodagu told Business Line. March showers “Rain in

February, especially during mid-harvest, was worrisome, but March

shower has been heavy and this has made us comfortable for the nextthree to four weeks,” he added. In Kodagu rains have been good in

Napoklu zone comprising Murnad, Madikeri and Napoklu whereas

Gonikoppal zone, which comprises Virajpet, Gonikoppal, Kutta and

Balale, needs additional showers. For robusta, south Kodagu got early

showers in February and now has received moderate March showers. In

Chikmagalur and Hassan districts, March rains have been well

distributed. “Due to timely showers and moisture status being good,

many planters have begun applying manure in their estates. This year,

they have been able to save on irrigation,” said Mandana. ( Source: Business

Line)

No sales in N. Indian centres due to non-availability of teasThere were no sales this week at any of the three North Indian tea

auction centres at Kolkata, Guwahati and Siliguri due to non-availability

of tea. As a result, Sale Number 11 due this week could not be held atany of these centres and there were no auctions of either CTC/dust or

orthodox or Darjeeling. “There is nothing unusual about it”, a spokesman

for J. Thomas & Company Pvt Ltd, the tea auctioneers, told Business Line.

“Every year during this time one or two sales would get dropped due to

non-availability of tea this being the closure of the season”. He indicated

that Sale Number 13, due to take place in the last week of this month,

too might be dropped for the same reason. Limited quantities of Dooars

variety of first flush new tea are expected to hit the auction in the first

week of April, most probably from Sale Number 14 and it will be another

two weeks or so before the Assam variety starts arriving (Sale Numbers

15, 16). “The drought this year has hit the early crops but there have

been some rains in the past few days”, observed the spokesman. “Let’s

us see”. ( Source: Business Line)







Market Highlights as on March 15, 20

% change

Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM

Chana Spot - NCDEX

(Delhi)

Rs/qtl 3459 -0.81 -1.66 -4.74 -

Chana- NCDEX

Apr'13 Futures

Rs/qtl 3402 0.47 0.29 -1.59 -

Source: Reut

Technical Chart - Chana NCDEX April contract

Source: Teleq

Technical Outlook valid for Mar 16, 201

Contract Unit Support Resistance

Chana Apr Futures Rs./qtl 3360-3380 3420-3440

Chana

Chana recovered from lower levels due to demand from stockists at

lower levels. However, sharp gains were capped due to the arrival

pressure in the domestic markets and higher output expectations. The

Spot settled 0.81% lower while the April Futures settled 0.47% higher on

Friday.

In the union budget 2013-14, although no direct move was considered

for Pulses, still The Finance Minister expressed concern about the supply-

demand mismatch in pulses. He said that the aggregate demand is a

concern. Stating that food inflation is worrying, he said the government

would take all steps to augment the supply side.

Pulses Sowing 2012-13

According to the final figures from ministry of agriculture dated 22nd

February 2012, Chana sowing is 3.6% higher at 95.15 lakh ha compared

to previous year. Acreage is up in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, MP and AP at

15.7 lakh ha, 12.53 lakh ha, 32.99 lakh ha and 7.33 lakh ha respectively.

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support

prices (MSP), have helped expand overall acreage in 2012-13 season. TheCentre has hiked the MSP by 14 per cent to Rs 3,200 a quintal for chana

and as part of its strategy to encourage farmers to grow more pulses to

reduce import dependence.

Demand supply fundamentals

According to second advance Estimates released on 8th

Feb 2013, Total

pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 17.58 mn tn, down

3.3% compared to previous year. The target for 2012-13 pulses crop

output was set at 18.24 million tonne during the year. However, drought

conditions have hampered kharif pulses output, which has been only

partially offset by Rabi pulses output, especially chana.

Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 23% lower at

5.48 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 8.72% higher at 12.09 mn

tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12.

There has been a sharp increase in the chana output estimates on the

back of higher acreage and good yield. Chana output is expected to

breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for

2012-13. In its first advance estimates chana output was pegged at 7.9

mn tn.

Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely

to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source:

Agriwatch).

Trade Scenario

India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher

availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen

boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall.

In Australia, total chickpea production in 2012 –13 is estimated to have

increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000 tons in

2011-12. In Canada chickpea output is estimated at 1.58 lakh tonnes

compared with 86000 tn in 2011-12.

Outlook

Chana is expected to trade on a positive note today on account of

demand from stockists. However, increasing arrivals of new crop from

MP coupled with higher imports may exert downside pressure on the

domestic prices. Also, prices may not sustain below Rs 3200 as farmers

will not liquidate their produce below these levels.








% Change

Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM Yo

Sugar Spot- NCDEX

(Kolhapur) Rs/qtl 3123 -0.20 -0.72 -2.40

Sugar M- NCDEX

Mar'13 Futures Rs/qtl 3000 -0.76 -0.63 -4.00

Source:

International Prices as on March 15, 201

% Change


Sugar No 5- Liffe-

May'13 Futures

$/tonne 539.4 0.41 0.78 8.31

Sugar No 11-ICE

May '13 Futures

$/tonne 419.78 0.27 0.37 3.62

.Source:

Technical Chart - Sugar NCDEX April contract

Source: Te



Sugar Apr NCDEX Futures Rs./qtl 3000-3015 3055-3075

Sugar

Sugar futures declined yesterday due to sluggish demand from

the bulk manufacturers coupled with higher supplies. However, a

sharp declined was cushioned as traders are adopting wait and

watch policy ahead of decontrol decision. Agriculture Minister

Sharad Pawar said that the sugar output in 2013-14 may fall toaround 24 mn tn against current year’s output of 24.5 mn tn.

There are reports that some mills in Maharashtra have stopped

crushing due to non availability of cane. The spot as well as the

April Futures settled 0.2% and 0.76% lower on Friday.

India, the world’ biggest sugar consumer, could consider easing curbs on

the tightly controlled industry this week. Decontrolling the sugar sector

would, involve abolition of regulated release mechanism, removal of levy

sugar obligation from industry, freer export-import policy, removal of

sugar from compulsory packing in jute bags only and a transparent policy

linking cane price with sugar price.

The government has decided not to increase import duty on sugar

though industry bodies and manufacturers had demanded a hike in theduty to 60% from the current 10% to curb shipment of the sweetener.

India's sugar production in the 2013/14 season is set to fall below

consumption for the first time in four years as a water shortage trims

acreage in three key states.

Domestic Production and Exports

Out of the estimated 24 mn tn sugar output for the season 2012-13, India

produced 13.7 mn tn in the first four months of the season beginning

October 2012, up 3 percent a year ago period.

With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are

estimated at 30.5 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22.

5mln tn for 2012-13. Exports are not viable as international prices have

also declined significantly.

Global Sugar Updates

Liffe white sugar as well as raw sugar futures on ICE traded in a

rangebound manner and settled 0.41% and 0.27% higher respectively on

Friday. A global surplus situation coupled with ample supplies

pressurized prices. However, reports that more cane will be diverted

towards ethanol due to better realization supported prices. Currently the

prices are trading around their 2½ year lows. Prices also declined as ISO

forecasted higher global sugar surplus. Brazil exported 1.21 mt of raw

sugar in February, vs 1.73 mt in January.

The ISO forecasted a global sugar surplus of 8.526 mn tn in 2012/13, up

from 6.479 mn tn in 2011-12. It forecast that the sugar stocks-to-

consumption ratio would rise to 40.56 percent in 2012/13 from 38.21percent in 2011/12.

Sugar traders are the most bullish since October on speculation that the

slump in prices to the lowest in 2 1/2 years will spur Brazilian millers to

make more biofuel and less of the raw sweetener from cane.

Brazil plans to reduce taxes on ethanol to boost production and use of

the biofuel. If brazil cuts tax the ethanol parity to sugar may rise and

thus the share of cane directed to sugar production in the 2013-14

season may be 44 -45%, down from 49.6 % in the current period.

Outlook

Sugar prices are expected to trade lower today due to higher supplies in

the domestic markets. However, prices may recover as demand will now

reemerge to meet the summer season requirement. Further, crushing

will now start declining amid lower cane availability this season.








% Change


Soybean Spot- NCDEX

(Indore)

Rs/qtl 3593 0.59 1.70 6.14

Soybean- NCDEX Mar '13

Futures

Rs/qtl 3574 1.98 1.91 6.18

Ref Soy oil Spot-

NCDEX(Indore)

Rs/10 kgs 683.2 0.87 -0.34 -7.13

Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Mar

'13 Futures

Rs/10 kgs 691.1 1.34 0.67 -6.06

Source: Reuter

as on March 15, 2

International Prices Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM

Soybean- CBOT-

May'13 Futures

USc/

Bushel 1426 -2.14 -5.47 0.37

Soybean Oil - CBOT-

May'13 Futures

USc/lbs 49.91 1.67 -0.50 -2.33 -1

Source: Reuters

Crude Palm Oil as on March 15, 2

% Change

Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM

CPO-Bursa

Malaysia – Apr '13

Contract

MYR/Tonne 2348 0.00 -3.53 -3.97

CPO-MCX- Mar '13

Futures

Rs/10 kg 455.9 0.97 -0.26 0.91

Source: Re

RM Seed as on March 15, 2

Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM

RM Seed Spot-

NCDEX (Jaipur)

Rs/100 kgs 3525 0.95 -0.13 -10.98

RM Seed- NCDEX

Apr'13 Futures

Rs/100 kgs 3477 0.35 0.78 -0.03

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart –Soybean NCDEX April contra

Source: Teleq



Soy Oil Apr NCDEX Futures Rs./qtl 667-672 682-686

Soybean NCDEX Apr Futures Rs./qtl 3460-3480 3520-3540

RM Seed NCDEX Apr Futures Rs./qtl 3450-3462 3487-3500

CPO MCX Mar Futures Rs./qtl 451-453 458-461

OilseedsSoybean: Soybean April gained yesterday due to short coverings

coupled with lower supplies in the domestic markets. However,

weak international markets capped sharp upside. The spot settled as

well as the April futures settled 0.59% and 0.91% higher on Friday.

Exports of Soybean meal during February, 2013 was 5,77,589 tones

as compared to 3,70,524 tonnes in February, 2012 showing an

increase by 55.88% over the last year.

On a financial year basis, the export during April 2012 to February

2013 is 31,13,651 tonnes as compared to 34,52,791 tonnes in the

same period of previous year showing a decrease of 9.82%.

According to the second advance estimates, 2012-13 oilseed output

is pegged at 29.4 mn tn, down by 1.1%, while soybean output is

pegged higher at 12.9 mn tn, up 3.2%.

International MarketsSoybean Futures on CBOT declined by 0.66% on Friday on account

slowing demand for old US soybean. No fresh sale of the old crop

was reported. Also the advancement of the South American crop

added to the downside pressure. However, there are reports thatfarmers in Argentina are holding back their crop anticipating higher

prices. The USDA monthly crop report has kept the Brazil output

unchanged at 83.5 mn tn while, it reduced Argentina’s crop forecast

from 53 mn tn to 51.5 mn tn.

German oilseeds analyst Oil World cut its forecast of the 2013

soybean harvest in Argentina by 2 mn tn to 50 mn tn from its Jan

estimates because of dry weather, but has raised its forecast of

Brazil's soybean crop by 0.5 mn tn.

Argentina soybean acreage is estimated at 19.35 mn ha. U.S.

farmers will harvest record soybean crops in 2013, ending three

years of falling production and rebuilding nearly depleted stockpiles.

U.S. soybean processors say they have been pleasantly surprised by

the high oil content of the latest U.S. soybean harvest, a factor that

has contributed to strong profit margins and should pad year-endsoy oil inventories.

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil and CPO gained by 1.7% and 0.97% on

account of short coverings. Lead speakers in the Palm Oil

Conference have forecasted lower prices due to rising supplies.

Higher global production estimates of palm oil by oil world have

pressurized prices at higher levels. Global palm oil output is

estimated at 55.3 mn tn in 2012-13, up by 3.4 mn tn.

India's vegetable oil imports declined 17 percent from a month ago

in February due to higher taxes. To curb imports, the tariff value of

crude palm oil, the edible oil India imports most, has been raised

from $ 815 a tonne to $ 848 a tonne, a rise of 4.04%.

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard Futures gained by 0.35% on Friday

tracking positive edible oil pack. Arrivals have commenced inRajasthan and thus may pressurize prices. Mustard seed sowing is

now up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha. Agriculture ministry in its third

advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by

11.5%. MSP of mustard seed is fixed at Rs 3000 per qtl.

OutlookSoybean may trade on a mixed note. Weak international markets

may pressurize prices while low supplies may support prices.

Mustard seed may gain due to buying at lower levels while, higher

output expectations may pressurize prices. Soy oil and CPO may

continue to decline on account of forecast of higher supplies.

However prices may find support on expectations that output may

fall due to seasonally lower yield.







h


% Change

Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM Y

Pepper Spot-

NCDEX (Kochi)

Rs/qtl 37088 -0.05 0.86 -9.59 -5

Pepper- NCDEX

Mar'13 Futures

Rs/qtl 37330 0.47 4.76 -7.86 -4

Source: Reu

Technical Chart – Black Pepper NCDEX April contract

Source: Teleq



Black Pepper NCDEX Apr Futures Rs/qtl 35610-35920 36480-367

Black PepperPepper Futures traded on a mixed note with a positive bias yesterday.

Low stocks in the warehouses coupled with thin supplies and delayed

harvesting on back of to lack of skilled laborers supported the prices.

However, prices declined towards the end on account of profit booking.

Increasing arrivals of the new crop from Karnataka pressurized prices last

week. Harvesting of the fresh crop is going in and is expected to gainmomentum in the coming days. Food Safety and Standards Authority of

India sealed the entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in

Kerala of about 8,000 tonnes. Exports demand for Indian pepper in the

international markets is also weak due to price parity. The Spot settled

0.05% lower while the April Futures settled 0.82% higher on Friday.

According to a circular issued by NCDEX on 09/02/2013, launch of June

2013 expiry contract in Pepper which is scheduled on February 11,

2013, has been postponed till further notice. The revised launch date

will be announced in due course.

Spices Board has announced plans to import high yielding Madagascar

variety that was behind the record productivity in Vietnam. It could raise

productivity of Indian pepper from 2,000 kg/ha to 7,000 kg/ha.

Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $7,100/tn.

Vietnam’s Asta is quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn, Indonesia GM-1 is quoted

at $6,900/tn and Brazil Asta is quoted at $6,600/tn.

Exports and ImportsIndia’s pepper exports in 2012 have been reported at just 12,000 tonne s

while imports reported at 15,000 tonnes making India a net importer.

(Source: Agriwatch )

According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development

(MARD) exports of pepper in 2012 stood at 116,962 mt, Vietnam shipped

12000 mt of pepper in January 2013.

Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 9% in

2012 period to 62,458 tn as compared to 68,489 tn in 2011.

Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared

to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599

tonnes in the last year. Brazil exported 25,900 tn pepper during Jan-Nov

2012, around 20% lower compared with 32,650 tn in the same period

last year. Exports from Malaysia 8,300 tn pepper during Jan-Oct 2012,

lower by 30% last year while exports in October stood at 1,077 mt in.

Production and ArrivalsThe arrivals in the spot market were reported at 67 tonnes while off

takes were reported at 65 tonnes on Friday.

As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up

compared with 3.18 lk tn in 2011. Production for 2013 is projected at

316832 tn. Indonesian pepper output is expected to rise by 24% and in

Vietnam by 10%. According to estimates, pepper output in Vietnam isestimated to be 1.05 lakh tonne in 2012 as compared to 1.1 lakh tonne in

2011. Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year.

Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by

3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to

2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) Pepper production in

2012-13 is expected around 60,000-63,000 tonnes. Currently, pepper is

in the fruit formation stage in Kerala.

OutlookPepper is expected to trade on a positive note today. Low stocks coupled

with good demand from the upcountry markets may support prices at

lower levels. Reports that farmers are holding back stocks may also

support prices at lower levels. However, improvement in arrivals may

pressurize prices at higher levels.








% Change

Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM

Jeera Spot- NCDEX

(Unjha)

Rs/qtl 13450 0.05 0.16 -3.01

Jeera- NCDEX Mar

'13 Futures

Rs/qtl 13243 0.27 0.42 -0.84 1

Source: Reu

Technical Chart – Jeera NCDEX April contract

Source: Telequ


% Change

Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM Yo

Turmeric Spot-

NCDEX (N'zmbad)

Rs/qtl 6546 2.24 13.26 19.12 74.

Turmeric- NCDEX

Apr '13 Futures

Rs/qtl 6930 -1.87 3.74 8.01 73.

Technical Chart – Turmeric NCDEX April contrac

Source: Telequ

Technical Outlook Valid for Mar 16, 2013

Unit Support Resistance

Jeera NCDEX Apr Futures Rs/qtl 13060-13250 13580-1371

Turmeric NCDEX April Futures Rs/qtl 6730-6830 7080-7200

JeeraJeera Futures traded on a mixed note but recovered sharply towards

the end on account of export demand. However, the spot did not gain

much due to higher arrivals of the new crop. The arrivals of new crop

are averaging around 25,000 bags/ day and are expected to improve in

the coming days. Higher sowing as well as conducive weather in

Gujarat, the main jeera growing region has increased outputexpectations. According to Gujarat State Agri Dept. sowing in Gujarat

is reported at 3.352 lakh ha in 2013 compared with 3.719 lakh ha last

year. According to the Rajasthan State Budget 2013-14, it has

exempted jeera from VAT. In Rajasthan, sowing is expected to increase

by 10-15%. The spot as well as the April Futures settled 0.05% and

1.41% higher on Friday.

According to markets sources the exports target has already been

achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Supply

concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that

export orders may still be diverted to India from the international

markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil

war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000

tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations.

Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international

market at $2,650 tn (c&f Europe) while Syria and Turkey are not

offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected

to be around 5-6 lakh bags.

Production, Arrivals and ExportsArrivals in Unjha were reported at 32,000 tn on Friday. Production of

Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 38-40 lakh bags (55 kgs each),

same as last year.

According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood

at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an

increase of 6%.

OutlookJeera Futures trade on a mixed note. Fresh export as well as domestic

demand may support prices while increasing arrivals may pressurizeprices. In the medium term, prices are likely to stay firm as Syria and

Turkey have stopped shipments.

TurmericTurmeric Futures witnessed a volatile session after NCDEX imposed

special margin of 10% on the long side from 14/03/2013. Fresh

export enquiries coupled with output concerns have pushed up the

prices. Traders have received fresh orders from Bihar, Maharashtra,

Delhi, Kolkata and some other places. Unseasonal rains in Andhra

Pradesh have damaged about 9240 tonnes. The Spot settled 0.24%

higher while the Futures settled 1.87% lower on Friday.

Production, Arrivals and ExportsArrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi stood at 6,000 bags and

16,000 bags respectively on Friday.

Expectations are that production may be lower by 40-50%. There are

reports of some crop damage in Erode region. Turmeric production in

2012-13 is expected around 50 lakh bags. Production in Nizamabad is

expected around 12 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is projected at

historical high of 10.62 lakh tn. It is estimated that next year’s

carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags.

According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012

increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011.

Outlook

Turmeric is expected to trade on a mixed note today. Reports of fresh

export enquiries coupled with crop damage coupled and lower output

concerns may support prices. Demand from stockists may also support

prices. However, higher carryover stocks coupled with higher margin

pressure may pressurize prices.






Market Highlights as on March 15

% Change

Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM

NCDEX Kapas Apr

Futures

Rs/20 kgs 1002 2.66 3.30 6.71

MCX Cotton Mar

Futures

Rs/Bale 19100 1.70 2.47 2.47

Source: R

International Prices as on March 15

% Change


ICE Cotton USc/Lbs 92.5 1.80 6.67 14.45

Cot look A Index 81.35 0.00 0.00 0.00

Source: Re

Technical Chart - Kapas NCDEX April contract

Source: Te

Technical Chart - Cotton MCX March contract

Source: Te


Contract Unit Support Resistanc

Kapas NCDEX April Futures Rs/20 kgs 985-992 1010-1020

Cotton MCX March Futures Rs/bale 18950-19040 19240-193

KapasNCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton traded on a bullish note tracking

positive international markets and settled 2.66% and 1.7% higher

respectively on Friday. There is some buying interest seen from China

which has raised expectations of export demand. Traders have

demanded the government agencies (Cotton Corp of India) to release the

stocks procured by them. The government has decided to continue withthe current cotton exports policy.

Traders expect exports to cross government’s estimates of 8 mn bales.

Finance Minister announced various incentives and policies in the Union

Budget to support the ailing textile industry.

Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October 2012 until

February 10, 2013 were down at 183.4 lakh bales, down from 189.27

lakh bales a year earlier.

Domestic Production and Consumption

According to Cotton Advisory Board’s (CAB) estimates (23th

Jan 2013) for

2012-13 season that commenced in October, domestic cotton

production is pegged 330 lakh bales, down from the previous year’s

estimates of 353 lakh bales.However, higher exports and domestic consumption can be met through

revised higher opening stocks of 40 lakh bales and higher imports.

After witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could

witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along

with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports

at 80 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.

Global Cotton Updates

Cotton traded on a bullish note yesterday and traded above 90 cents for

the second consecutive day and settled 1.8% higher on Friday due to

positive exports sales data. Prices are trading near year high levels.

USDA, in its monthly crop report cut global cotton stock estimates on

higher demand which cushioned a sharp downside in the prices. Buyingby mills has also lifted the prices. Expectations of good demand from

China supported prices at lower levels.

U.S. growers will harvest the smallest cotton crop in four years and notch

the smallest exports in 12 years as world demand for the fiber drops,

especially in China.

At its annual Outlook Forum, USDA projected a crop of 14 million bales

from planted acreage of 10 million acres. Plantings would be the smallest

in four years and down 19 percent from last year.

The crop, projected to be down 18 percent from 2012, would be the

smallest since 2009.

China is planning to issue more cotton import quotas to export-

dependent textile mills that are struggling to protect margins as domesticprices soar due to a state stockpiling plan.

However, according to USDA, the world's largest cotton grower and user,

will import the smallest amount of cotton, 8 million bales, in five years in

2013/14 as it copes with huge domestic reserves.

Outlook

Cotton prices are expected to trade on a positive note today extending

yesterday’s gains. Expectations of good exports may support prices. Also,

the prices may take cues from firmness in the international markets.

Expectations that China may release higher import quota which might

boost imports also supported an upside in the cotton prices. Also,

expected lower US cotton acreage and output in 2013-14 may also

support prices at lower levels.

Daily Agri Report, March 16

Documents

Transcript of Daily Agri Report, March 16