Daily Agri Report, April 06

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Commodities Daily Report

Agricultural Commodities

Saturday| April 06, 2013

www.angelcommodities.com

Content

News & Market Highlights

Chana

Sugar

Oilseed Complex

Spices Complex

Kapas/Cotton

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Market Highlights (% change) as on April 05, 2013

Last Prev. day WoW MoM

Sensex 18450 -0.32 -2.05 -3.62

Nifty 5553 -0.39 -2.28 -3.99

INR/$ 54.81 -0.15 0.97 -0.26 Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl 92.7 -0.60 -4.66 2.07 -

Comex Gold - $/oz 1575 1.52 -1.22 0.05 -

.Source: Reu

Partial sugar decontrol: Cane growers divided over impactSugarcane growers are divided over the impact of the partial decont

measures announced by the Government on Thursday. The farmers

the North, especially Uttar Pradesh, are sceptical over the sugar factori

passing on the gains to them arising from the removal of the levy syste

This is even as total cane arrears across the country in the current sug

year increase to over Rs 10,694 crore, with Uttar Pradesh accounting f

over half of it at Rs 5,800 crore, followed by Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.

Cane arrears However, growers in West and South, mainly

Maharashtra and Karnataka, where co-operatives have a significapresence in the sector, expect the millers to share a pie of the gains w

them. Abinash Verma, Director-General of the Indian Sugar M

Association, said the removal of levy and regulated release mechanis

would help millers to sell the sweetener in line with the requirement

their cash flows and clear the cane arrears. Currently, the sugar mille

are sitting on an inventory of 17.5 million tonnes worth around Rs 51,0

crore, Verma estimates. ( Source: Business Line)

Rubber slips on weak cuesThe rubber market finished weak on Friday. Declines in the domes

futures and the trendsetting international markets kept the sentimen

subdued during the day. Though sheet rubber continued to reel und

pressure on buyer resistance, the grade managed to sustain at t

prevailing levels on supply concerns. The trend was mixed amidst lo

volumes. Sheet rubber was quoted steady at Rs 164 a kg, according

traders. The grade finished unchanged at Rs 164.50 a kg both

Kottayam and Kochi as reported by the Rubber Board. ( Source: Business Line

Corn's weekly loss biggest in 21 months, soy declinesU.S. corn prices set a nine-month low on Friday and posted their bigge

weekly loss in 21 months on more selling in the wake of last week's U

government report that showed larger-than-expected stockpiles of t

grain. Soybeans fell to a 10-month low on fears of a potential drop

feed demand due to bird flu in China and seasonal pressure from t

harvest of massive soy crops in South America. Wheat rose on sho

covering amid rumors of China buying U.S. soft wheat. Wheat also dre

support from a drop in the U.S. dollar following disappointing U.S. jo

data. A weaker dollar makes U.S. wheat more competitive to holders

foreign currency. ( Source: Reuters)

U.S. winter wheat crop hit by freeze, farmers to write off fieldsU.S. wheat farmers are expected to write off portions of their wint

wheat acreage after a recent freeze in key growing areas struck fiel

already suffering from drought, wheat experts said Friday. "We've got

significant amount of damage out there," Travis Miller, agronomist wi

Texas A&M University, said in an interview. A plunge in temperatures

late March in parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas damaged an as-ye

unknown portion of the new hard red winter wheat crop, deliveri

another blow to farmers whose fields were already suffering from

extended drought. Producers and state and county agronomy expe

met this week to assess crop damage, and many farmers will soon b

meeting with insurance adjusters to write off lost wheat fields, whe

experts said. ( Source: Reuters)

News in brief Loss by Maharashtra coop sugar mills factories to fall Rs. 960 crMaharashtra cooperative sugar mills have received a partial benefit due

to partial decontrol. The loss on account of mismatch between the

market price and the price at which levy sugar was sold will fall by Rs.

960 cr during the current crushing season. Factories will earn at least Rs.

115 to 120 per quintal following the relaxation of 10% levy obligation. Inall 170 sugar factories comprising 108 cooperative and 62 private mills

are participating in the present season and are expected to produce 8

million ton of sugar. Vijaysinh Mohite- Patil, chairman, Federation of

Cooperative Sugar Factories in Maharashtra, a representative body of

over 170 units, told Business Standard" Against exmill price of Rs. 2,800

to 2,900 per quintal, factories had to sell 10% levy sugar at the

government determined price of Rs. 1,850 per quintal. The loss incurred

by them was Rs. 1,100 to Rs. 1,200 per quintal. But with the removal of

10% levy obligation, the loss will now come down by Rs. 960 cr from the

total estimated loss of Rs. 3,300 cr," he informed. ( Source: Business Standard)

Oilmeals exports slide 13 percent in FY'13India's oilmeals export fell by 13% to 48.46 lk tn in the 2012-13 fiscal due

to price disparity and competition from China and Argentina, industrybody Solvent Extractors Association said. However in value terms, export

of oilmeals, which is mainly used as animal feed, rose by 40% to Rs

11,806 cr from Rs 8,430 cr in the review period on account of better

realisation and rupee depreciation by eight%, it said in a statement. "The

overall export in terms of quantity reduced by 7.5 lk tn to 48.46 lk tn

from 55.99 lk tn," Mumbai-based Solvent Extractors Association (SEA)

said. Exports to Japan, Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia drastically

reduced due to "disparity in exports in these regions against severe

competition from other origins including China and Argentina," it said.

Absence of buying by China due to ban since January 2012 has seriously

affected overall exports and particularly exports of rapeseed meal, the

industry body added. Export of rapeseed meal declined to 7.9 lk tn in

2012-13 fiscal, as compared with 12.5 lk tn in the previous year, the data

showed. However, SEA said that shipments to the Middle East andAfrican countries doubled to 12.2 lk tn from 6.1 lk tn in the review period

because of huge buying from Iran and also substantial increase by

Turkey. France also turned out to be a big importer of soybean meal, on

account of lower supply from others, it added. ( Source: Economic Times)

Drip irrigation powered by the sunPunjab will this month start giving farmers a 70% subsidy on solar-

powered submersible pumps for drip irrigation, which would help save

40 to 60% water, besides electricity when demand peaks. Some experts

feel the decision has come a little late in Punjab, known for adopting

innovative farming methods. Neighbouring Rajasthan had stolen a march

on Punjab in 2010 by offering an 86% subsidy for solar pumps for drip

irrigation. Punjab did experiment with centrifugal solar pumps a few

years ago, but those did not prove efficient. Officials say the combinationof drip irrigation (directing water and fertilisers to the roots through

pipes slowly and by regulating the flow through valves, thus preventing

wastage) and solar pumps would enhance the summer crop yield. ( Source:

Financial Express)

North-West may witness rain, stormy weatherThe western disturbance that crosses the international border and rolls

into North-West India, is forecast to suddenly acquire depth and intensity

and trigger some weather in the region. Earlier in February, a series of

such monsters had made back-on-back appearances and sprayed snow,

ice and rain in the hills and plains at times accompanied by hailstorm.

While crossing the border, the sheer depth and intensity caused them to

sweep through even peninsular India, and in a rare feat, generated

hailstorms in Central India and adjoining peninsular India. ( Source: Business

Line)







Market Highlights as on April 05, 201

% change

Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM

Chana Spot - NCDEX

(Delhi)

Rs/qtl 3450 0.34 5.27 1.47

Chana- NCDEX

Apr'13 Futures

Rs/qtl 3464 1.32 3.90 4.37

Source: Reut

Technical Chart - Chana NCDEX May contract

Source: Teleq

Technical Outlook valid for Apr 06, 2013

Contract Unit Support Resistance

Chana May Futures Rs./qtl 3470-350 3560-3580-

ChanaChana spot traded on a positive note yesterday on expectations of a

decline in the yield due to unfavorable weather in the largest producing

state of Madhya Pradesh. Also, good demand from stockists coupled with

domestic demand ahead of the wedding season has also supported the

prices at lower levels. However, arrival pressure from Madhya Pradesh

and Rajasthan capped sharp upside. The spot as well as the futuressettled 0.34% and 1.32% higher on Friday.

Arrivals have gained momentum across India and are expected to gain

further in the coming weeks.

The government has extended ban on export of pulses till March 31,

2014. According to DGFT, there is an exception with export of Kabuli

chana, organic pulses and lentils being allowed up to a ceiling of 10,000

metric tonnes per annum.

Chana Sowing

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support

prices (MSP), have helped expand overall acreage in 2012-13 season. The

Centre has hiked the MSP by 14 per cent to Rs 3,200 a quintal for chana

and as part of its strategy to encourage farmers to grow more pulses toreduce import dependence.

Chana sowing in the current season is 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha

compared to previous year. Acreage is up in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, MP

and AP at 15.7 lakh ha, 12.53 lakh ha, 32.99 lakh ha and 7.33 lakh ha

respectively.

Production

According to second advance Estimates released on 8th

Feb 2013, Total

pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 17.58 mn tn, down

3.3% compared to previous year. The target for 2012-13 pulses crop

output was set at 18.24 million tonne during the year. However, drought

conditions have hampered kharif pulses output, which has been only

partially offset by Rabi pulses output, especially chana.Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 23% lower at

5.48 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 8.72% higher at 12.09 mn

tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12.

There has been a sharp increase in the chana output estimates on the

back of higher acreage and good yield. Chana output is expected to

breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for

2012-13. In its first advance estimates chana output was pegged at 7.9

mn tn. However, erratic weather in M.P. may lower the yield.

Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely

to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source:

Agriwatch).

Trade Scenario

According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of February declined to

0.46 lakh metric tonnes compared to 2.31 lakh metric tonnes during the

previous month.

India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher

availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen

boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall.

In Australia, total chickpea production in 2012 –13 is estimated to have

increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.

Outlook

Chana prices are expected to increase today on account of lower yield

expectations from MP coupled with domestic buying by the stockists and

wedding season may support prices at lower levels. However, higher

arrival pressure may cap sharp upside in the prices.







Market Highlights as on April 05, 2013 % Change

Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM Yo

Sugar Spot- NCDEX

(Kolhapur) Rs/qtl 3082 1.05 1.61 -2.52

Sugar M- NCDEX

Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl 2924 -0.75 1.07 -2.40

Source:

International Prices as on April 05, 2013

% Change


Sugar No 5- Liffe-

May'13 Futures

$/tonne 504.5 0.02 0.24 -2.15

Sugar No 11-ICE

May '13 Futures

$/tonne 392.22 -0.11 -0.06 -2.38

.Source:

Technical Chart - Sugar NCDEX May contract

Source: Te



Sugar May NCDEX Futures Rs./qtl 2945-2970 3040-3085

SugarSugar futures opened sharply higher as the government lifted curbs on

the highly regulated sugar sector. Lower output figures during October –

March 2013 supported the prices at lower levels. However, prices decline

from higher levels towards the end on account of profit taking. Higher

supplies also pressurized prices. The spot settled 1.05% higher while the

May Futures settled 0.4% lower on Friday.The Government has cleared the partial decontrol of sugar. According

to this, the government will now have to buy sugar from the mills at

open market prices. Also the release mechanism will be done away

with, after September 2013. States will decide on the FRP of cane.

Indian sugar mills produced 23 million tonnes of the sweetener between

Oct. 1 and March 31, about 2 percent less than a year earlier.

The Central Government has decided to make available quantity of 104

lakh tons of sugar, as non-levy quota for open market sale, for the 6

months of April, 2013 to September, 2013.

Barring two key regulations with respect to fixing sugarcane price and

sharing of 70 per cent revenue by sugar firms with farmers, the

Rangarajan Committee report has suggested giving freedom to mills to

sell sugar in the open market and having a stable export and import

policy.

Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said that the sugar output in

2013-14 may fall to around 24 mn tn against current year’s output

of 24.5 mn tn. There are reports that some mills in Maharashtra

have stopped crushing due to non availability of cane.

Domestic Production and Exports

India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on

Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian

Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said last week.

Indian sugar mills produced 21.05 mn tn of the sweetener between Oct.

1 and March 15, down 1% from a year ago.

With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are

estimated at 30.8 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22.

5 mln tn for 2012-13. Exports are not viable as international prices have

also declined significantly.

Global Sugar Updates

Sugar prices remained on a flat to negative note on as harvest of cane in

Brazil has commenced and the market expects a bumper crop. However,

short coverings towards the end of the week supported prices at lower

levels. Liffe Sugar settled marginally higher by 0.02% while Raw sugar

Futures on ICE settled 0.11% lower on Friday. Expectations of abundant

supplies from the 2013-14 harvest in the other leading producers, such

as Thailand, Mexico and the United States have pressurized prices.

Currently, prices are trading around 2½ year lowsAccording to FO Litch, Brazil's center-south sugar production is expected

to reach 36.2 million tonnes in 2013/14, up from 34.1 million tonnes in

the previous season.

The main adjustment on the production side is the increase in CS Brazil

output following a successful end to the crushing season at a new record

high of 34.1 million tonnes.

Outlook Sugar prices are expected to trade on a positive note today on account of

decontrol of the sugar sector by the government. Emergence of demand

from the bulk manufacturers may also support the prices at lower levels.

However, higher supplies coupled with higher quota coupled with need

based demand may cap sharp gains.








% Change


Soybean Spot- NCDEX

(Indore)

Rs/qtl 4035 2.65 7.69 17.81

Soybean- NCDEX Apr '13

Futures

Rs/qtl 3986 1.32 7.09 18.35

Ref Soy oil Spot-

NCDEX(Indore)

Rs/10 kgs 715.1 0.15 3.14 4.46

Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Apr

'13 Futures

Rs/10 kgs 712.3 -0.52 2.65 4.00

Source: Reuter

as on April 05, 2

International Prices Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM

Soybean- CBOT-

May'13 Futures

USc/

Bushel 1362 -0.75 -3.06 -9.00 -

Soybean Oil - CBOT-

May'13 Futures

USc/lbs 48.83 0.58 -2.55 -2.18 -1

Source: Reuters

Crude Palm Oil as on April 05, 201

% Change

Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM

CPO-Bursa

Malaysia – Apr '13

Contract

MYR/Tonne 2336 -1.27 -0.17 -2.10

CPO-MCX- Apr '13

Futures

Rs/10 kg 462 -0.67 1.27 0.74

Source: Re

RM Seed as on April 05, 20

Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM

RM Seed Spot-

NCDEX (Jaipur)

Rs/100 kgs 3525 1.30 2.69 -0.11

RM Seed- NCDEX

Apr'13 Futures

Rs/100 kgs 3525 0.83 1.73 3.40

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart –Soybean NCDEX May contra

Source: Teleq



Soy Oil May NCDEX Futures Rs./qtl 686-690 700-705

Soybean NCDEX May Futures Rs./qtl 3780-3835 3945-4005

RM Seed NCDEX May Futures Rs./qtl 3505-3540 3605-3635

CPO MCX Apr Futures Rs./qtl 458-460 464-466

OilseedsSoybean: Soybean continued to trade on a positive note on

account of lower supplies in the domestic markets. However, the

prices declined towards the end on account of profit booking. The

spot settled 2.65% higher while the futures settled 0.32% lower.

Exports of Soybean meal during February, 2013 was 5,77,589 tones

as compared to 3,70,524 tonnes in February, 2012 showing anincrease by 55.88% over the last year.

According to the second advance estimates, 2012-13 oilseed output

is pegged at 29.4 mn tn, down by 1.1%, while soybean output is

pegged higher at 12.9 mn tn, up 3.2%.

International MarketsSoybean Futures on CBOT declined by 0.75% on Friday on concerns

of a drop in meal demand from China due to the outbreak of bird

flu. Supplies from Brazil coupled with larger than expected stocks

released by the USDA also added to the downside pressure. Stocks

were reported at 999 mn bushels against expectations of 905 mn

bushels. US soybean plantings intentions for the 2013/14 crop year

was reported at 77.126 mn acres, below market forecasts for 78.394

mn acres.

According to the trade ministry, Brazil’s March exports were

reported at 3.54 mn tn as against 0.96 mn tn in February, but lower

than 4.24 mn tn in March last year.

Informa trimmed its forecast of U.S. 2013 soybean plantings to

78.457 million acres, from 78.777 million in January, but it is still up

from the 77.198 mn acres seeded to soy in 2012.

China's April imports will likely be less than 4.5 mn tn, lower than

market expectations of about 5 mn tn, due to severe port

congestion in Brazil that has delayed shipments.

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil as well as MCX CPO settled 0.52% and

0.67% lower respectively on Thursday tracking weak international

oil prices.India's imports of palm oil could rise more than 17% in the year to

October 2013 to stand at 9 mn tn, compared with 7.67 mn tn of

palm oil in 2011/12 as the edible oil is the cheapest available,

despite an import duty.

India's vegetable oil imports fell about 17 percent to 969,175 tonnes

last month, with palm oil imports dropping to 805,362 tonnes.

According to Dorab Mistry, Malaysian palm oil futures could rise to

2,400-2,700 ringgit ($770 to $865) per tons by the end of May due

to weaker production and falling trend in palm oil inventories. By

end of June 2013, Malaysian palm oil stocks will dip below 2 mn tn

and Indonesian stocks would below 4 mn tn.

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard Futures gained 0.83% on Friday due

to positive edible oil markets. Reports of unseasonal rains in thenorth also supported prices. However, increasing arrival pressure of

new crop pressurized prices at higher level. Sowing of Mustard seed

is up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha. Agriculture ministry in its third

advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by

11.5%.

OutlookSoybean prices may gain on account of lower supplies in the

domestic markets. However, long liquidation coupled with supplies

from Latin American region coupled with higher stocks in the US

may pressurize prices. Mustard seed is also expected to remain in

the positive zone due to positive edible oil markets while higher

arrivals may cap sharp upside. Soy oil and CPO is expected to trade

higher on account of positive domestic edible oil pack. Additionally,

lower output due to seasonally lower yield may support prices.







h


% Change

Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM Y

Pepper Spot-

NCDEX (Kochi)

Rs/qtl 36507 0.53 0.53 -3.75 -4

Pepper- NCDEX

Apr '13 Futures

Rs/qtl 35775 -0.42 -0.24 -1.35 -5

Source: Reu

Technical Chart – Black Pepper NCDEX May contract

Source: Teleq



Black Pepper NCDEX May Futures Rs/qtl 35350-35570 36010-362

Black PepperPepper Futures traded on a mixed note yesterday. Weak exports coupled

with higher supplies from Karnataka pressurized prices. However, low

stocks coupled with robust demand for the Kerala crop supported the

prices. Interstate traders, especially from Tamil Nadu are actively buying

the Kerala crop. Low stocks in the warehouses coupled with thin supplies

have supported the prices. Karnataka crop is trading at lower levels dueinferior quality. Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the

entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in Kerala of about

8,000 tonnes. Some exports of Karnataka pepper from Mangalore port

have been reported. However, exports demand for Indian pepper in the

international markets is weak due to price parity. The Spot settled 0.53%

higher while the May Futures settled 0.42% lower on Friday.

According to a circular issued by NCDEX on 09/02/2013, launch of June

2013 expiry contract in Pepper which is scheduled on February 11,

2013, has been postponed till further notice. The revised launch date

will be announced in due course.

Spices Board has announced plans to import high yielding Madagascar

variety that was behind the record productivity in Vietnam. It could raise

productivity of Indian pepper from 2,000 kg/ha to 7,000 kg/ha.Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $6,950/tn

(C&F, New York). Vietnam’s Asta is quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn, Indonesia

GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn and Brazil Asta is quoted at $6,600/tn.

Exports and ImportsIndia’s Apr-Jan 2012-13 pepper exports were reported at 11,550 tn,

down 48% (Source: Factiva) while imports reported at 15,000 tonnes making

India a net importer. (Source: Agriwatch )

According to the latest IPC reports, Vietnam exported around 39,000

tonnes of pepper in the 1st

quarter of 2013..

Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 9% in

2012 period to 62,458 tn as compared to 68,489 tn in 2011.

Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared

to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599

tonnes in the last year. Brazil exported 25,900 tn pepper during Jan-Nov

2012, around 20% lower compared with 32,650 tn in the same period

last year. Exports from Malaysia 8,300 tn pepper during Jan-Oct 2012,

lower by 30% last year while exports in October stood at 1,077 mt in.

Production and ArrivalsThe arrivals in the spot market were reported at 40 tonnes while off

takes were reported at 42 tonnes on Friday.

As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up

compared with 3.18 lk tn in 2011. Production for 2013 is projected at

316832 tn. Indonesian pepper output is expected to rise by 24% and in

Vietnam by 10%. According to estimates, pepper output in Vietnam is

estimated to be 1.05 lakh tonne in 2012 as compared to 1.1 lakh tonne in

2011. Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year.

Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by

3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to

2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) Pepper production in

2012-13 is expected around 60,000-63,000 tonnes. Harvesting of pepper

in some regions in Kerala are already complete.

OutlookPepper is expected to trade on a mixed note. Weak exports data coupled

with higher supplies of pepper from Karnataka may pressurize the prices

at higher levels. However, low stocks coupled with good demand from

the upcountry markets may support prices at lower levels. Reports that

farmers are holding back stocks may also support prices at lower levels.








% Change

Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM

Jeera Spot- NCDEX

(Unjha)

Rs/qtl 13604 1.42 1.95 0.87

Jeera- NCDEX Apr

'13 Futures

Rs/qtl 13660 2.40 3.88 6.04 1

Source: Reu

Technical Chart – Jeera NCDEX May contract

Source: Telequ


% Change

Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM Yo

Turmeric Spot-

NCDEX (N'zmbad)

Rs/qtl 6395 0.00 -0.29 17.61 76.

Turmeric- NCDEX

Apr '13 Futures

Rs/qtl 6408 -1.26 -0.65 4.50 65.

Technical Chart – Turmeric NCDEX May contract

Source: Telequ

Technical Outlook Valid for Apr 06, 2013

Unit Support Resistance

Jeera NCDEX May Futures Rs/qtl 13550-13700 14000-1423

Turmeric NCDEX May Futures Rs/qtl 6460-6510 6620-6670

JeeraJeera futures traded on a bullish note higher yesterday on back of

higher exports data. Fresh export enquiries coupled with expectations

on pickup in the domestic demand also boosted the prices. Arrivals of

the new crop are averaging around 30,000 bags/ day. New crop from

Rajasthan has also hit the markets. Higher sowing as well as conducive

weather in Gujarat, the main jeera growing region has increasedoutput expectations. According to Gujarat State Agri Dept. sowing in

Gujarat is reported at 3.352 lakh ha in 2013 compared with 3.719 lakh

ha last year. According to the Rajasthan State Budget 2013-14, it has

exempted jeera from VAT. The as well as the Futures settled 1.42 and

2.23% higher on Friday.

According to markets sources the exports target has already been

achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Supply

concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that

export orders may still be diverted to India from the international

markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil

war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000

tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations.

Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international

market at $2,400 tn (FOB Mumbai) while Syria and Turkey are not

offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected

to be around 5-6 lakh bags.

Production, Arrivals and ExportsArrivals in Unjha were reported at 42,000 tn on Friday. Production of

Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 38-40 lakh bags (55 kgs each),

same as last year.

Exports of Jeera between Apr 2012- Jan 2013 stood at 64,400 tn, an

increase of up 86%. (Source: Factiva)

OutlookJeera Futures are expected to trade higher in the intraday on account

of good overseas as well as domestic demand while higher arrivals of

the new crop may cap sharp upside. In the medium term, prices are

likely to stay firm as Syria and Turkey have stopped shipments.

TurmericTurmeric Futures declined due to weak exports data. Higher supplies

of the new crop coupled with huge carryover stocks have pressurized

prices at higher levels. However, demand as well as overseas demand

at lower levels supported prices at lower levels. Lower output also

supported prices at lower levels. Unseasonal rains in Andhra Pradesh

have damaged about 9240 tonnes of turmeric. The Spot settled

unchanged while the Futures settled 1.26% lower on Friday.

Production, Arrivals and ExportsArrivals Nizamabad mandi stood at 18,000 bags on Thursday. Erode

will remain closed for 10 days on account of Mariamman festival.

Expectations are that production may be lower by 40-50%. There are

reports of some crop damage in Erode region. Turmeric production in

2012-13 is expected around 50 lakh bags. Production in Nizamabad is

expected around 12 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is projected at

historical high of 10.62 lakh tn. It is estimated that next year’s

carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags.

According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012

increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011.

Outlook

Turmeric may trade on a mixed note today. Weak exports data

coupled with higher supplies of the fresh crop and huge carryover

stocks may pressurize prices. However, Fresh export demand coupled

with demand from stockists may support prices. Crop damage and

lower output concerns may also help to push up the prices.







% Change

Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM

NCDEX Kapas Apr

Futures

Rs/20 kgs 931 -1.12 -0.32 -4.27

MCX Cotton Mar

Futures

Rs/Bale 19090 -0.88 1.98 1.98

Source: R

International Prices as on April 05, 2

% Change


ICE Cotton USc/Lbs 86.79 -1.74 -1.89 2.21

Cot look A Index 84.85 -11.34 -10.50 -7.42

Source: Re

Technical Chart - Kapas NCDEX April contract

Source: Te

Technical Chart - Cotton MCX April contract

Source: Te


Contract Unit Support Resistanc

Kapas NCDEX April Futures Rs/20 kgs 915-922 940-955

Cotton MCX April Futures Rs/bale 18880-18980 19200-193

KapasNCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton settled 1.12% and 0.88% lower on

Friday due to lower demand from mills and exporters. Weak global

market sentiments also added downside pressure. However, lower

availability coupled with expectations of good export demand from China

in the coming days has supported the prices at lower levels. Lower

planting intentions data from US also supported prices. However, reportsthat state-run Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) would offload stocks in

the open market to augment supplies pressurized the prices. Cotton Corp

of India has sought permission to export 1 mn bales.

Lower supplies in the domestic markets and rising cotton prices have

caused concerns for textile industry, which is demanding government to

direct CCI and NAFED to offload the cotton stock to domestic mills.

CCI is expected to offload 4 lakh bales in the domestic market and NAFED

will sell 3.63 lakh cotton bales from the first week of April 2013.

India's imports of cotton this year could reach 1.5 mn bales, missing

earlier estimates of more than 2 mn as the govt may to start selling its

stockpiles.

Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October 2012 untilFebruary 10, 2013 were down at 183.4 lakh bales, down from 189.27

lakh bales a year earlier.

Domestic Production and Consumption

According to Cotton Advisory Board’s (CAB) estimates (23th

Jan 2013) for

2012-13 season that commenced in October, domestic cotton

production is pegged 330 lakh bales, down from the previous year’s

estimates of 353 lakh bales.

However, higher exports and domestic consumption can be met through

revised higher opening stocks of 40 lakh bales and higher imports.

After witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could

witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along

with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exportsat 80 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.

Global Cotton Updates

ICE Cotton futures declined sharply by 1.74% on Friday on back of weak

non-farm employment change data.

Exports were higher compared to previous week but lower compared to

four week average. According to the USDA report, planting intentions for

the 2013-14 season are said to be at a 4 year low. Also, there are

expectations of good export demand from China. Reports of India and

China releasing stocks from the state reserve led to a decline in the

prices.

China, the world’s largest consumer, is expected to sell about 3 mn tn of

cotton this year from state reserves of around 10 mn tn.

USDA has initially forecasted US Cotton acreage for 2013-14 season, at

smallest in 20 yrs, however, with recent surge in prices, farmers may

decide to plant more cotton. The planting intention data is schedule to

be released on 28th march 2013.

Outlook

We expect Cotton prices to trade on a mixed note. Weak global market

sentiments may pressurize prices. However, US cotton planting

intentions were reported at a 4 year low which may support prices.

Expectations of good export demand may also support prices.

Daily Agri Report, April 06

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Transcript of Daily Agri Report, April 06