CRISIL - Power Finance Corporation Ltd. (PFC) - Results in Line; No Incremental NPAs (3QFY13 RU)

8/10/2019 CRISIL - Power Finance Corporation Ltd. (PFC) - Results in Line; No Incremental NPAs (3QFY13 RU)

1/12

CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch

Enhancing investment decisions

Power Finance

Corporation Ltd

Q3FY13 Results Update


2/12


Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix

The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process Analysisof Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental grade is assigned on a

five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The valuation grade is assigned on a five-

point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).

CRISIL

Fundamental Grade Assessment

CRISIL

Valuation Grade Assessment

5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP)

4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (10-25% from CMP)

3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+-10% from CMP)

2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (negative 10-25% from CMP)

1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (


3/12

Power Finance Corporation LtdResults in line; no incremental NPAs

Fundamental Grade 4/5 (Superior fundamentals)

Valuation Grade 5/5 (CMP has strong upside)

Industry Diversified financial services

1

March 01, 2013

Fair Value 275

CMP 201

For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in

CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI ) and Thomson Reuters.

Power Finance Corporations (PFCs) Q3FY13 results were in line with CRISIL Researchs

expectations. Disbursements increased 30% q-o-q to 126bn whereas the AUM increased

5.5% q-o-q. The 16 bps q-o-q expansion in yields led to operating income increasing 8.6%

q-o-q to 16.3 bn. The cost-to-income ratio remained stable at 2.3%. There were no

incremental NPAs. However, the company has increased its provisioning on standard asset

provisioning to converge to regulatory norms. As a result the provisions increased from

30mn in Q2FY13 to 900 mn in Q3FY13. The adjusted net profits increased 5.5% q-o-q to

11.1 bn. We maintain our estimates and fundamental grade of 4/5, indicating that its

fundamentals are superiorrelative to other listed securities in India.

Disbursement growth primarily driven by transition loans

The disbursements registered a strong 30% q-o-q growth primarily on account of

disbursements of transition loans to state utilities. While the disbursements to central, joint

and private sector projects witness q-o-q decline of 61%, 38% and 10% respectively,

disbursements to central sector increased 49% q-o-q. PFC has sanctioned transition loans of

166 bn of which 82 bn has been disbursed. Its outstanding sanctions stood at 1,695 bn

which is 3.7x trailing 12 month disbursements.

Yields continue the upward trajectory; expected to stability in future

The average yield on assets continued to rise driven by repricing of loan assets. The yields

increased 16 bps q-o-q to 12.14%. The NIMs increased 33% due increase in yields combined

with 19 bps q-o-q drop in interest costs. While we expect the yields to stablise at current

levels, the decline in interest cost is expected to drive expansion in NIMs.

No incremental NPAs; but higher standard asset provisioning

The company did not have any incremental NPAs, although few of the loans continue to be

under stress. The company has started making provision of 0.08% of standard asset and will

increase it to reach 0.25% by FY15. As a result the provisions have increased from 30 mn in

Q2FY13 to 900 mn in Q3FY13.

Fair value increased to 275

We have introduced FY15 estimates and have rolled forward our valuation resulting in fair

value increasing from 229 to 275 per share. We have maintained our one-year forward P/B

multiple at 1.2x. At the current market price of 201, our valuation grade is 5/5.

KEY FORECAST

(mn) FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E

Total Operating income 37,248 45,954 61,992 76,292 89,710

Pre-Provision profits 36,053 44,631 60,379 74,436 87,576

Adjusted Net profits 26,195 32,227 42,419 51,815 62,811

EPS 22.8 24.4 32.1 39.3 47.6

P/E(x) 8.7 8.2 6.2 5.1 4.2

P/ABV(x) 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9

RoE (%) 18.4 18.2 19.3 20.1 20.6

RoA (%) 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.7

Net NPA (%) 0.2 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.2

Capital adequacy Ratio (%) 15.7 16.3 16.6 16.1 15.9

NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price

Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimates

CFV MATRIX

KEY STOCK STATISTICSNIFTY/SENSEX 5797/ 19152

NSE/BSE ticker PFC

Face value (per share) 10

Shares outstanding (mn) 1320

Market cap (bn)/(US$ bn) 270/5.0

52-week range ()/(H/L) 227/138

Beta 1.3

Free float (%) 26.3

Avg daily volumes (30-days) 3,575,706

Avg daily value (30-days) (mn) 759

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

PERFORMANCE VIS--VIS MARKET

Returns

1-m 3-m 6-m 12-m

PFC -4% 10% 17% 4%

NIFTY -5% 2% 7% 6%

ANALYTICAL CONTACTMohit Modi (Director) [email protected]

Onkar Kulkarni [email protected]

Vishal Rampuria [email protected]

Client servicing desk

+91 22 3342 3561 [email protected]

1 2 3 4 5

1

2

3

4

5

Valuation Grade

FundamentalGrade

Poor

Fundamentals

ExcellentFundamentals

Strong

Downs

ide

Stron

g

Upsid

e

73.7% 73.7% 73.7% 73.72%

9.9% 9.8% 10.3% 11.04%

8.7% 9.5% 9.4% 8.78%7.7% 7.0% 6.6% 6.46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12

Promoter FII DII Others


4/12


2

Q3FY13 Results Summary

(mn) Q3FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY12 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%) 9MFY13 9MFY12 y-o-y (%)

Interest income 44,649 41,875 32,824 6.6 36.0 125,911 93,319 34.9

Interest expense 28,268 26,824 21,576 5.4 31.0 80,217 61,199 31.1

Net Interest Income 16,381 15,050 11,247 8.8 45.6 45,695 32,120 42.3

Other Income 5 37 13 -87 -63 111 209 -46.9

Total Operating Income 16,385 15,087 11,260 8.6 45.5 45,805 32,329 41.7

Operating Expenses 373 336 276 11.0 35.3 982 847 16.0

Staff Costs 193 193 176 -0.2 9.5 575 546 5.4

Other Operating Expenses 180 143 100 26.1 80.8 407 301 35.2

Cost to income 2.3% 2.2% 2.5% 5 bps (17) bps 2.1% 2.6% (47) bps

Pre- provision profit (PPP) 16,012 14,751 10,984 8.6 45.8 44,823 31,483 42.4

Provision & Contingency 900 30 390 2,900 NM 900 460 95.7

Profit before depreciation and tax 15,112 14,721 10,594 2.7 42.6 43,923 31,023 41.6

Depreciation On Fixed Assets 15 14 14 7.7 12.8 43 38 11.8Extra-ordinary gain / (loss) (46) (364) 4,153 NM NM (1,470) (1,580) NM

PBT 15,051 14,343 14,734 4.9 2.2 42,411 29,405 44.2

Provision for tax 3,934 3,978 3,655 -1.1 7.6 11,156 7,270 53.4

Reported Profit 11,117 10,365 11,079 7.3 0.3 31,255 22,134 41.2

Extra-ordinary gain / (loss) (46) (220) 4,153 NM NM (1,470) (1,580) NM

Adjusted Net Profit 11,163 10,585 6,926 5.5 61.2 32,725 23,714 38.0

No of equity shares (mn) 1,320 1,320 1,320 0.0 0.0 1,320 1,320 0.0

Adj EPS () 8.5 8.0 5.2 5.5 61.2 24.8 18.0 38.0

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Disbursements reported strong y-o-y growth ...... so did AUM

Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research

106 61 81 99 157 79 97 126

25%

7%

-23%

42%

29%

48%

29%

19%

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Q2FY13

Q3FY13

(

bn)

D isbursement s y -o-y growt h (R HS)

996 1,041 1,104 1,180 1,302 1,344 1,404 1,481

24.7%

21.6%

25.6%

28.2%30.8%

29.2%

27.2% 25.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Q2FY13

Q3FY13

(bn)

AUM y-o-y growth (RH S)


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Power Finance Corporation Ltd

3

Yields, cost of funds, spreads, NIMs Capital adequacy remains healthy


Cost-to-income ratio No incremental NPAs


Leverage and ROEs remain stable q-o-q Adjusted book value trend


10.70% 11.08% 11.29% 11.28% 11.32% 11.71%

11.98% 12.14%

8.53% 8.80% 9.08% 9.13% 8.99% 9.08% 9.24% 9.05%

2.49% 2.28% 2.21% 2.15% 2.33% 2.63% 2.74%

3.08%

3.95% 3.85% 3.97% 3.85% 3.88% 4.19%

4.28% 4.61%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Q2FY13

Q3FY13

Yields Cost of borrowings Spreads NIMs

15.7%

18.9%

18.2%17.9%

16.3%

18.6%

17.7%

18.1%

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

19%

20%

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Q2FY13

Q3FY13

3.3%

2.5%

2.8%

2.5%

3.1%

1.9%

2.2% 2.3%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Q2FY13

Q3FY13

0.23% 0.23% 0.22%

0.54%

1.04% 1.02%0.97%

0.92%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Q2FY13

Q3FY13

5.8 5.4 4.9 5.0 5.4 5.7 5.6 5.7

19.8%

18.3%17.4%

16.5% 16.4%

20.6% 20.3%21.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Q2FY13

Q3FY13

(x)

D/E RoE (RHS)

124 139 144 147 148 155 161 162

-1%

12%

4%

2%1%

5% 4%

0%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Q2FY13

Q3FY13

(/Share)

Adjusted Book Value Growth (q-o-q) (RHS)


6/12


4

Net Interest income grew 9% q-o-q Adjusted PAT grew 5% q-o-q


Share price movement Fair value movement since initiation

-Indexed to 100

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, BSE, CRISIL Research

8,5

25

10,1

03

11,0

88

11,2

47

12,7

93

14,0

29

15,0

50

16,3

81

-11%

19%

10%

1%

14%10%

7% 9%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,00018,000

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Q2FY13

Q3FY13

( mn)

Net Interest Income q-o-q growth (RHS)

5,8

95

7,2

82

8,1

41

6,9

26

7,9

98

10,2

89

10,5

85

11,1

63

-8%

24%

12%

-15%

15%

29%

3% 5%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%40%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Q2FY13

Q3FY13

( mn)

Adjusted PAT q-o-q growth (RHS)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Nov-10

Dec-10

Feb-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jun-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Feb-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jun-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Feb-13

PFC NIFTY

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Nov-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

('000)()

Traded Quant it y (R HS) CR ISI L Fair value PFC


7/12

Power Finance Corporation Ltd

5

Valuation Grade: 5/5

We have introduced FY15 estimates and have rolled forward our valuation resulting in fair

value increasing from 229 to 275 per share. We have maintained our one-year forward P/B

multiple at 1.2x. At the current market price of 201, our valuation grade is 5/5.

One year forward P/B band chart P/B movement


CRISIL IER reports released on Power Finance Corporation Ltd

Date Nature of report

Fundamental

grade Fair value

Valuation

grade

CMP

(on the date of report)

29-Nov-11 Initiating Coverage 4/5 269 5/5 165

06-Feb-12 Q3FY12 Result Update 4/5 256 5/5 187

25-May-12 Q4FY12 Result Update 4/5 229 5/5 150

16-Aug-12 Q1FY13 Result Update 4/5 229 4/5 186

15-Nov-12 Q2FY13 Result Update 4/5 229 4/5 186

01-Mar-13 Q3FY13 Result Update 4/5 275 5/5 201

0

50

100150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Apr-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

Jun-11

Aug-11

Nov-11

Feb-12

May-12

Aug-12

Nov-12

Feb-13

( )

PFC 1.0x 1.5x 2.0x 2.5x

0

1

1

2

2

3

3

Apr-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

Jun-11

Aug-11

Nov-11

Feb-12

May-12

Aug-12

Nov-12

Feb-13

(Times)

1yr Fwd P/B (x) Median P/B

+1 std dev

-1 std dev


8/12


6

Annexure: Financials

Source: CRISIL Research

(

mn) FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15ENet Interest Income 33,900 41,169 59,772 73,585 85,350 Spread AnalysisNon Interest Income 3,347 4,786 2,220 2,706 4,359 Yield on AUM 11.0% 11.3% 11.7% 11.6% 11.6%

Total Operating Income 37,248 45,954 61,992 76,292 89,710 Cost of borrow ings 8.5% 9.0% 9.1% 8.9% 8.9%

Operating Expenses 1,195 1,323 1,613 1,855 2,134 Spread 2.5% 2.3% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%

Staf f Costs 734 820 991 1,140 1,310 Net Interest Margin (NIM) 4.0% 3.9% 4.1% 4.0% 3.8%

Other Operating Expenses 461 503 622 716 823 Return Ratios

Pre- provision profit (PPP) 36,053 44,631 60,379 74,436 87,576 ROA (%) 2.8% 2.6% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7%

Provision & Contingency 317 1,450 2,526 3,777 1,928 ROE (%) 18.4% 18.2% 19.3% 20.1% 20.6%

Profit before depreciat ion and tax 35,735 43,181 57,853 70,660 85,648 Growth ratiosDepreciation On Fixed Assets 51 55 61 67 74 Assets under Management (AUM) 24.7% 30.8% 25.3% 26.2% 16.8%

Extra-ordinary gain / (Loss) 276 (1,639) - - - Disbursements 30.1% 25.0% 21.9% 20.1% 4.5%

PBT 35,960 41,486 57,792 70,593 85,574 Net Interest Income 17.1% 21.4% 45.2% 23.1% 16.0%

Provision for tax 9,489 10,898 15,373 18,778 22,763 Non Interest Income 20.0% 43.0% -53.6% 21.9% 61.1%

Reported Net Profit 26,471 30,589 42,419 51,815 62,811 Total Operating Income 17.3% 23.4% 34.9% 23.1% 17.6%

Extra-ordinary gain / (Loss) 276 (1,639) - - - Operating Expenses 2.3% 10.7% 21.9% 15.0% 15.0%

Adjusted Net Profit 26,195 32,227 42,419 51,815 62,811 Staf f Costs -5.9% 11.8% 20.8% 15.0% 15.0%

Pre- provision profit (PPP) 17.9% 23.8% 35.3% 23.3% 17.7%

Provision & Contingency NM 357.1% 74.2% 49.5% -48.9%Adjusted Net Profit 16.3% 23.0% 31.6% 22.1% 21.2%

(mn) FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E EPS () 16.3% 7.0% 31.6% 22.1% 21.2%

Total Share Capital 11,478 13,199 13,199 13,199 13,199 Book Value () 14.6% 15.7% 17.0% 17.7% 18.5%

Equity share capital 11,478 13,199 13,199 13,199 13,199 Asset QualityEquity Share w arrants - - - - - Gross NPA % 0.2% 1.0% 1.4% 1.6% 1.4%

Reserves 140,902 189,533 224,033 265,948 317,540 Net NPA (%) 0.2% 0.9% 1.3% 1.4% 1.2%

Shareholders Funds 152,379 202,733 237,232 279,148 330,740 Valuation DataP/E (x) 8.7 8.2 6.2 5.1 4.2

Borrow ings 862,178 1,101,259 1,383,744 1,771,899 2,150,345 P/ABV (x) 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9

Other Liabilities & Provisions 31,839 46,761 58,383 74,525 90,222 Key ParametersDeferred tax liability 1,010 868 868 868 868 Total AUM (mn) 995,707 1,302,100 1,631,538 2,059,029 2,405,731

Sources of funds 1,047,407 1,351,621 1,680,227 2,126,439 2,572,175 Disbursements (mn) 318,650 398,170 485,415 583,038 609,400

Capitalisation ratiosCash & Bank Balances 24,442 21,010 10,284 20,699 108,319 Capital adequacy ratio 15.7% 16.3% 16.6% 16.1% 15.9%

Investments 266 268 268 268 268 Tier I capital ratio 14.7% 15.4% 15.7% 15.2% 14.9%

Net Loans and advances 1,000,702 1,303,744 1,635,179 2,062,284 2,410,398 Tier II capital ratio 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0%

Net Fixed Assets and Capital WIP 742 728 801 880 968 Efficiency ratioDeferred tax asset 181 - - - - Cost to Income ratio 3.3% 3.0% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5%

Other Assets 21,073 25,871 33,696 42,308 52,221 Opex/ average assets 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Application of funds 1,047,407 1,351,621 1,680,227 2,126,439 2,572,175 Leverage (x) - D/E 5.7 5.4 5.8 6.3 6.5

(m n) Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13

Total operating income 11,260 12,807 14,039 15,087 16,385

FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E Change (q-o-q) 14% 10% 7% 9%

Adj EPS () 23 24 32 39 48 Adjusted PAT 6,926 7,998 10,289 10,585 11,163Adj Book Value () 131 145 164 190 229 Change (q-o-q) 15% 29% 3% 5%

Dividend per share () 5.2 6.0 6.0 7.5 8.5 Adjusted EPS 5.2 6.1 7.8 8.0 8

Actual o/s shares 1,148 1,320 1,320 1,320 1,320 Adjusted book value per share 147 148 155 163 172

Income Statement

Balance sheet

Per share

Quarterly Financials

Ratios


9/12

This page is intentionally l eft blank


10/12


CRISIL Research Team

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Mukesh Agarwal CRISIL Research +91 22 3342 3035 [email protected]

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Binaifer Jehani Director, Customised Research +91 22 3342 4091 [email protected]

Manoj Mohta Director, Customised Research +91 22 3342 3554 [email protected]

Sudhir Nair Director, Customised Research +91 22 3342 3526 [email protected]

Mohit Modi Director, Equity Research +91 22 4254 2860 [email protected]

Jiju Vidyadharan Director, Funds & Fixed Income Research +91 22 3342 8091 [email protected]

Ajay D'Souza Director, Industry Research +91 22 3342 3567 [email protected]

Ajay Srinivasan Director, Industry Research +91 22 3342 3530 [email protected]

Rahul Prithiani Director, Industry Research +91 22 3342 3574 [email protected]

Business Development

Siddharth Arora Director, Customised Research +91 22 3342 4133 [email protected]

Sagar Sawarkar Associate Director, Equity Research +91 22 3342 8012 [email protected]

Deepak Mittal Associate Director, Funds & Fixed Income Research +91 22 3342 8031 [email protected]

Prosenjit Ghosh Associate Director, Industry & Customised Research +91 22 3342 8008 [email protected]

Business Development Equity Research

Ahmedabad / Mumbai

Vishal Shah Regional Manager, Business Development

Email : [email protected] I Phone : +91 9820598908

Bengaluru / Chennai / Hyderabad

Shweta Adukia Regional Manager, Business Development


Delhi / Mumbai

Arjun Gopalkrishnan Regional Manager, Business Development


Kolkata

Priyanka Murarka Regional Manager, Business Development



11/12

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Hyderabad - 500 482, India

Phone: +91 40 2335 8103/05

Fax: +91 40 2335 7507

Bengaluru

W-101, Sunrise Chambers,22, Ulsoor Road,

Bengaluru - 560 042, India

Phone:+91 80 2558 0899

+91 80 2559 4802

Fax: +91 80 2559 4801

Kolkata

Horizon, Block 'B', 4th Floor57 Chowringhee Road

Kolkata - 700 071, India

Phone: +91 33 2289 1949/50

Fax: +91 33 2283 0597

Chennai

Thapar House,

43/44, Montieth Road, Egmore,

Chennai - 600 008, India

Phone:+91 44 2854 6205/06

+91 44 2854 6093Fax: +91 44 2854 7531

Pune

1187/17, Ghole Road,

Shivaji Nagar,

Pune - 411 005, India

Phone: +91 20 2553 9064/67

Fax: +91 20 4018 1930

Gurgaon

Plot No. 46

Sector 44

Opp. PF Office

Gurgaon - 122 003, India

Phone: +91 124 6722 000

CRISIL Ltd is a Standard & Poor's company

CRISIL Limited

CRISIL House, Central Avenue,

Hiranandani Business Park, Powai, Mumbai 400076. IndiaPhone: +91 22 3342 3000 | Fax: +91 22 3342 8088

www.crisil.com

CRISIL - Power Finance Corporation Ltd. (PFC) - Results in Line; No Incremental NPAs (3QFY13 RU)

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Transcript of CRISIL - Power Finance Corporation Ltd. (PFC) - Results in Line; No Incremental NPAs (3QFY13 RU)