COSMO GM2013.E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani,etal The COSMO-based ensemble systems for the Sochi...
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Transcript of COSMO GM2013.E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani,etal The COSMO-based ensemble systems for the Sochi...
COSMO GM2013.E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani,etal
The COSMO-based ensemble systems
for the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympic Games:
representation and use of EPS products
and development of COSMO-RU2-EPS
E. Astakhova, D. Alferov, A.Montani, E. Astakhova, D. Alferov, A.Montani, G. Rivin, I. RozinkinaG. Rivin, I. Rozinkina
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal2
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal2
TL: A. Montani and E.Astakhova
Preparation of epsgramsVisualization
Operational dissemination Forecasters’ feedback
Clustering+COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
FDP
COSMO-
S14-
EPS
RDP
∆x~7 km40 MLfc+72h
COSMO-
RU2-
EPS
∆x~2.2 km50 MLfc+48h
ARPA-SIMC
RHMC
ICs&BCs
All 10 forecastsfor Sochi-mini
Probability fieldsfor the entire
domain
RHMC
ECMWF EPSforecasts
VisualizationCase studiesVerification
Sochi-miniIntegration domain
RHMC
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal3
Current statusCurrent status• The time of data arrival is very stable !!! 12 UTC: 20:15-20:2000 UTC: 8:15-8:20• Only few forecasts were not delivered From 15 May to 15 Aug 2013 :UTC12: June 10, Aug 5 UTC 00: June 27(+ System session at ECMWF on June 5)• Epsgrams are prepared and probability fields are drawn in
operational mode Forecasters receive EPS products at12 UTC: 20:20-20:3000 UTC: 8:20-8:30• Forecasters’ feedbackEnsemble products are used more activelyStations for epsgrams were chosen according to forecasters’
needs
Thanks to Andrea!!
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal4
What’s new since GM2012What’s new since GM2012Ensemble meteograms
• Three types of meteograms are prepared at RHMC and sent to forecasters twice a day
• The box-and-whisker diagrams can be also found at http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru/bull/meteogr-arpa (authorization required: login frost pass steam)
• Elements are grouped in three plots: T2m, Td 2m, T850 total prec, rain, snow, rh 2m total clouds, low clouds, wind 10m, gusts 10m
Since January 2013
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal5
Ensemble meteograms
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal6
Relation to FROST2014Relation to FROST2014Participating ensembles:
COSMO-S14-EPS (Italy, 10 members, 7km, fc+72h, 00UTC, 12UTC)Representative members from ECMWF EPS, COSMO model• Was the first to provide ensemble forecasts• Stable time of data arrival• Well-represented on the Web (probability fields+epsgrams)• Delivered in time to forecasters via e-mail
GLAMEPS (Norway, 54 members, ~11km, fc+54h, 06UTC,18UTC)ECMWF DET (1) HirEPS_S and HirEPS_K (24+2) HirLAM model with two cloud physics parameterizationsAladEPS (13) ECMWF EPS (14) NMMBEPS (USA, 7 members, ~7km, fc+72h, 00UTC, 12UTC)NMMB model, breeding LAEF (Austria, 16 members,~11 km,fc+72h, 00UTC, 12UTC,interpolation to ~7km grid) –only test filesAladin model, IC:breeding-blending cycling; ensemble surface assimilation with perturbedobservations
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal7
Relation to FROST2014:Relation to FROST2014:All forecasts and observations on the WebAll forecasts and observations on the Web
http://frost2014.meteoinfo.ru/bull/multi-system-point-forecasts
(authorization required)
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal8
Main results:Main results:
• The forecasts are regularly produced, processed and delivered to forecasters at
fixed time• The forecasters get used to
probabilistic forecasts and are applying them more and more actively
Open issues and plans:Open issues and plans:
Archiving graphical products at the FROST siteForecasters’ training (October 2013)Verification
We’re ready for We’re ready for the Olympics!the Olympics!
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal9
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal9
COSMO-RU2-EPS:Current status• ICs & BCs from COSMO-S14-EPS 7km
(November-April 2013)
UTC 00: 8:15-8:30 UTC12: 20:15-20:30
• 10 COSMO-S14-EPS members --> 10 2.2km ensemble members (downscaling)
• No physical parameters perturbed• Forecast length 48 h; output time step 1h• Uses ~3 h elapsed time on 120 PEs (10*12)
SGI Altix 4700 Itanium 2, 1.66 GHz, NUMALink, 1664 PEs, Peak 11 Tflops
• Quasi-operational runs: start at 9:30 and 21:30 UTC
12 UTC 11.01.2013 – 12 UTC 29.04.2013
The forecast is ready at ~12:30 and 00:30 UTC(~12,5 h after observation times)
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal10
Quasi-operational EPS run: Elapsed time 12 UTC 11.01.2013 – 12 UTC 29.04.2013
00 UTC
12 UTC
date
Depends on the computer load!Depends on the computer load!
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal11
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal11
What’s new (Trial results)?
• Postprocessing added (using fieldextra)• New case studies• Ready to use VERSUS for EPS verification against AMS
data
Output data are re-coded, observations and forecasts are loaded
•The integration domain was increased: now 172x132 grid points instead of 86x66 onesThe elapsed time increased by ~20% (0.5h)
•Some bugs were fixedToo large precipitation near the boundaries lana_qr_qs and llb_qr_qs were not turned on
NewNew OldOld
IC&BC
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal12
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal12
Postprocessing: fieldextra update• Since version 11.1.0:
– added cosmo-ru-eps as an option for default model name in fieldextra
– added Moscow as a supported originating center for ensemble postprocessing
• Now COSMO-RU2-EPS is fully supported in fieldextra
(thanks to fieldextra team!)• Output fields:
– PMSL, T2m, T850 – mean and spread;– mean 3-hour sum of total precipitation;– Probabilities – like in COSMO-S14-EPS; 1-hour T2m max, T2m
min and wind gusts at 10m added.
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal13
Case Study - 1: Precipitation 7-8 January 2013: Precipitation in Sochi region
COSMO-RU2-EPS vs COSMO-S14-EPS
Period (DDMM/HH UTC)
12-h prec, mm
06.01.2013 15:00 0,4
07.01.2013 3:00 5
07.01.2013 15:00 12
08.01.2013 3:00 12
08.01.2013 15:00 3
09.01.2013 3:00 1
09.01.2013 15:00 0
SYNOPdata
Aibga
Large probabilities of precipitation sums > 10mm should be predicted from 7.01.2013/12 to 8.01.2013/00
Heavy rain started 07.01.2013 at ~12 UTC
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal14
Probability of total precipitation exceeding 10 mm / 12 h Probability of total precipitation exceeding 10 mm / 12 h
Initial time: 00 UTC 06.01.013
00 UTC 07.01.2013 - 12 UTC 07.01.2013
7 km
2.2 km
COSMO-S14-EPS
COSMO-RU2-EPS
Aibga
OrographyOrography
Better resolution, more detailsBetter resolution, more details
Is most evident for small probabilitiesIs most evident for small probabilities
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal15
Probability of total precipitation exceeding 10 mm / 12 hProbability of total precipitation exceeding 10 mm / 12 h
Initial time: 00 UTC 06.01.013
00 UTC 07.01.2013 - 12 UTC 07.01.2013
Aibga
12 UTC 07.01.2013 - 00 UTC 08.01.2013
7 km
2.2 km
COSMO-S14-EPS
COSMO-RU2-EPS
Aibga
Beginning of the event was caught well by both systems!
High-resolution system adds value!High-resolution system adds value!
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal16
Probabilities of total precipitation and rain >10 mm / 12 hProbabilities of total precipitation and rain >10 mm / 12 h
Initial time: 00 UTC 06.01.013
12 UTC 07.01.2013 - 00 UTC 08.01.2013
7 km
2.2 km
Aibga
COSMO-S14-EPS
Total pr Rain
COSMO-RU2-EPS
Both systems differentiate between snow and rain! Both systems differentiate between snow and rain! Snow is predicted in the mountain cluster!Snow is predicted in the mountain cluster!
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal17
Case Study - 2: Temperature at 2m14-15 February 2013: Foehn in Sochi region,
sudden and hardly predictable warming
Period (DDMM/HH UTC) T2m
12.02/00 -2.4
12.02/06 -3.2
12.02/12 -3.4
12.02/18 -5
13.02/00 -5.2
13.02/06 -6.1
13.02/12 -2.8
13.02/18 -6
14.02/00 -2.6
14.02/06 <no data>
14.02/12 3
14.02/18 1.6
15.02/00 0.6
15.02/06 -1.3
15.02/12 0.6
15.02/18 -3.8
16.02/00 -3.6
SYNOPdata
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
12.0200 UTC
13.0200 UTC
14.0200 UTC
15.0200 UTC
16.0200 UTC
Aibga
-6
-8
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal18
Case Study - 2: T2m
Period (DDMM/HH UTC) T2m
12.02/00 7.1
12.02/06 5.5
12.02/12 6.3
12.02/18 5.1
13.02/00 4.2
13.02/06 4.6
13.02/12 11.3
13.02/18 3.9
14.02/00 1
14.02/06 3.2
14.02/12 13
14.02/18 6.2
15.02/00 2.4
15.02/06 3.7
15.02/12 16.2
15.02/18 9.7
16.02/00 5.4
SYNOPdata
18
16
14
12
10
8
12.0200 UTC
13.0200 UTC
14.0200 UTC
15.0200 UTC
16.0200 UTC
Krasnaya Poliana
6
4
2
0
14-15 February 2013: Foehn in Sochi region,
sudden and hardly predictable warming
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal19
COSMO-RU2-EPS:probability of T2M_MAX exceeding 5°C
Initial time: 12 UTC 12.02.2013
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal20
COSMO-RU2-EPS:probability of T2M_MAX exceeding 5°C
Initial time: 00 UTC 13.02.2013Warming time was predicted well!
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal21
Case Study – 3 : Wind gusts at 10m15-16 March 2013: Strong wind gusts in Sochi region
SYNOP dataAbove 15 m/s at 15.03/19-21 UTC and 16.03/02-03 UTC
m/s
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal22
Case Study - 3: Wind gusts at 2m 15-16 March 2013: Strong wind gusts in Sochi region
SYNOP dataAbove 15 m/s at 15.03/15 UTC – 16.03/00 UTC, strongest at 15.03/17-18, 20-22 UTC
m/sm/s
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal23
COSMO-RU2-EPS:probability of hourly wind gusts exceeding 15 m/sec
Initial time: 00 UTC 14.03.2013Valid for 15.03.2013 16-23 UTC
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal24
COSMO-RU2-EPS:probability of hourly wind gusts exceeding 15 m/sec
Initial time: 12 UTC 14.03.2013Valid for 15.03.2013 16-23 UTC
Better forecast for smaller lead-times
Better forecast in Sochi
Problems with wind gust prediction in the mountain cluster
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal25
Case Studies : results
• Precipitation is predicted quite well (both the precipitation amounts and the moments of beginning/end). Good differentiation between rain near the shore and snow in the mountains was demonstrated.
• T2m is also predicted well. The system clearly indicated a warming related to the foehn event.
• Gusts are well predicted near the shore. There are problems with predicting wind gusts in the mountain cluster
• Comparisons of COSMO-RU2-EPS and COSMO-S14-EPS forecasts show that the higher resolution system adds value
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal26
What is next ?• Quantitative verification using VERSUS• Graphical output in quasioperational mode
(probability maps, epsgrams)• Quasioperational runs starting from mid-
November• Present the results at the FROST site• Try to provide the results to Sochi forecasters• Experiments with soil perturbations and model
perturbations (COTEKINO)
COSMO GM2013. E.Astakhova,D.Alferov,A.Montani etal27