A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014 Development of a LAM-EPS system for Sochi- 2014 Winter...

A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014

Development of a LAM-EPS system for

Sochi-2014 Winter Olympics

Andrea Montani

C. Marsigli, T. Paccagnella

ARPA-SIMC

HydroMeteoClimate Regional Service of Emilia-Romagna, Bologna,

Italy

XIII COSMO meetingRome (I), 5-8 September 2011


Introduction

• After Athens (Summer 2004) and Turin (Winter 2006), for the third time in a

decade the Olympic Games being hosted by a COSMO-country.

• Next Olympics and Paralympics Winter Games will take place in Sochi,

Russia (7-23 February and 7-16 March 2014).

• In the past occasions, the involvement of the full consortium was limited in

terms of implementation/support of new modelling products.

• As for Sochi-2014 Winter Olympics, Roshydromet is organizing a blended

RDP/FDP (Research and Development Project / Forecast Demonstration

Project) under the auspices of WMO: FROST-2014 (Forecasting and

Research: the Olympic Sochi Testbed).

• A new COSMO PP (CORSO) is being set-up to avoid duplication of work and

to better coordinate COSMO activities within this RDP/FDP.


Some geography…

Sochi (RU)

Rome (I)


Tiziana!!!

Detlev!!!

Andrea!!!


COSMO vs FROST-2014

COSMO should perform a number of activities related to FROST-2014:

a) deterministic forecasting (FDP/RDP initiatives),

b) probabilistic forecasting:

b1) FDP initiatives (“clone” of COSMO-LEPS over the Sochi area),

b2) RDP initiatives (development of a convective-scale COSMO LAM-EPS for

the Sochi area),

c) post-processing and product generation (FDP/RDP initiatives),

d) verification (FDP/RDP initiatives).


FDP (Forecast Demonstration Project) initiatives

SOCHMEL: SOCHi-targeted Mesoscale EnsembLe system(“relocation” of COSMO-LEPS)

Horizontal resolution: 7 km ( SOCHMEL7).

Vertical resolution: 40 model levels.

Forecast range: 72 hours.

Starting time: 00UTC, 12UTC.

Ensemble size: 10 members.

Initial and boundary conditions: interpolated from selected ECMWF EPS members.

Soil field initialisation: either using DWD Soil Moisture Analysis fields (like in COSMO-LEPS) or from hindcast COSMO run.


SOCHMEL suite @ ECMWF: present prototype

d+3d+3dd d+2d+2d+1d+1

ECMWF EPSECMWF EPS

clustering clustering intervalinterval

Cluster Analysis and RM identificationCluster Analysis and RM identification

4 variables4 variables

Z U V QZ U V Q

3 levels3 levels

500 700 850 hPa500 700 850 hPa

2 2 time time stepssteps

Cluster Analysis and RM identificationCluster Analysis and RM identification

Black-Sea Black-Sea areaarea

Complete Complete LinkageLinkage

1010 Representative Representative Members driving the Members driving the 1010

COSMO-model COSMO-model integrations (weighted integrations (weighted according to the cluster according to the cluster

populations)populations)

employing either employing either Tiedtke or Kain-Fristch Tiedtke or Kain-Fristch

convection scheme convection scheme (randomly choosen) (randomly choosen)

++perturbations in perturbations in

turbulence scheme and turbulence scheme and in physical in physical

parameterisationsparameterisations

SOCHMEL

clustering area

• Δx ~ 7 km; 40 ML; fc+72h;• initial time: 00UTC, 12UTC;• computer time (~ 2 million BUs

for 2012) provided by an ECMWF Special Project;

• suite managed by ARPA-SIMC; • contributions from ECMWF

member states could be needed in the future.

SOCHMEL Integration

Domain

this prototype is ready!


Types of perturbations

As for types and values, the results from CSPERT experimentation are

followed (* denotes default values for COSMO v4.12 ):

• convection_scheme (either Tiedtke* of Kain-Fritsch),

• tur_len (either 150, or 500*, or 1000),

• pat_len (either 500*, or 2000),

• crsmin (either 50, or 150*, or 200),

• rat_sea (either 1, or 20*, or 40),

• rlam_heat (either 0.1, or 1*, or 5),

• mu_rain (either 0.5* or 0),

• cloud_num (either 5x10^8* or 5x10^7).

A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014Submitted end of April 2011!


RDP (Research and Development Project) initiatives

SOCHMEL28: convective-scale ensemble system(possible prototype)

Horizontal resolution: 2.8 km.

Vertical resolution: 50 model levels.

Forecast range: 48 hours.

Starting time: 00UTC, 12UTC.

Ensemble size: 5 members.

Boundary conditions: either from SOCHMEL7 or from deterministic systems.

Initial conditions: either from SOCHMEL7 or from deterministic systems.

Data assimilation: …

Provision of wind-gust forecasts using different diagnostic algorithms.


Important ingredients for a successful ensemble

1. Have a clear division between FDP and RDP activities / commitments.

2. Develop experience with the use of probabilities by local forecasters.

3. Need of feedback on the top-priority products to be generated / visualised.

4. Computer time.

5. Timeliness in product delivery.

6. Observations to assess the quality of the system in the development phase.

7. …


Potential problems and open issues• Access to real-time ECMWF data via an independent way from COSMO-LEPS

time-critical application.• Computer time: Special Project at ECMWF may not be enough, especially if RDP

component is implemented.• Timeliness of delivery: test data-flow as soon as possible, ensure solidity to the

suite.• Need to downscale information at local sites over complex topography.• Forecasters do not always like probabilities.• End-users “hate” probabilities.• …

Timetable (from FROST-2014)Pre-trial: 2011/12 winter.

Trial: 2012/13 winter.

Olympics: 2014 winter.


Thank you !


Outline

1) Introduction to Sochi-2014:a) What is it?

b) What has to do with COSMO?

2) COSMO ensemble activities within FROST-2014: a) introduction to SOCHMEL (the SOCHi-targeted Mesoscale EnsembLe

system);

b) methodology;

c) phases of development;

d) planned activity.

3) Final remarks.


COSMO-LEPS (developed at ARPA-SIMC)

• What is it?It is a Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS),

based on COSMO-model and implemented within COSMO (COnsortium for Small-scale Modelling, including Germany, Greece, Italy, Poland, Romania, Russia, Switzerland).

• Why?It was developed to combine the advantages of global-

model ensembles with the high-resolution details gained by the LAMs, so as to identify the possible occurrence of high-impact and localised weather events (heavy rainfall, strong winds, temperature anomalies, snowfall, …)

generation of COSMO-LEPS to improve the forecast of high-

impact weather in the short and early-medium range (up

to fc+132h)


EPS 00 UTC(51 members)


Cluster Analysis5 Representative Members

BOLAM

COSMO

WRF



Cluster Analysis16 Representative Members

COSMO LEPS

Multimodel Ensemble15 members

Multianalysis Model Perturbed

Ensemble16 members

BUILDING THE ENSEMBLE: SELECTION OF REPRESENTATIVE MEMBERS (3)


Doubts and open issues

Deterministic modelling:• 1-km COSMO has never been tested in winter in the operational mode; what about support from the model developers?• Are there sufficient computer resources at RosHydroMet to run the 1-km model on a reasonable-size domain (but what is the reasonable domain size for Sochi)?• Downscaling from 7-km to 1 km can give rise to spin up problems at the early stage of the forecast.

Verification:• RosHydroMet can, most likely, provide the project partners with additional in-situ observations not normally available on the GTS.• Verification: methodology and observations (the same for all models!).

Ensemble modelling:• Forecasters do not always like probabilities (at any scale!)• End-users “hate” probabilities.


Timetable

• Pre-trial: 2011/12 winter

• test data flow, products delivery

• Trial: 2012/13 winter

• Olympics: 2014 winter.

A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014 Development of a LAM-EPS system for Sochi- 2014 Winter...

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