Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for ... · Copenhagen Institute for Futures...
Transcript of Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for ... · Copenhagen Institute for Futures...
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Niels Bøttger-Rasmussen, [email protected]
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Bilbao 3. and 4. november 2008
Youth-policy in Denmark
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
TheThe Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesCopenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
• Founded in 1970 by Thorkil Kristensen• Memberbased
– 130 members in Europe• Neutral• 25 researchers/futurists
MegatrendsScenariosWildcards
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
No No formal formal youth policyyouth policy in Denmarkin Denmark
– Youth as a transitional phase ? – Youth as a socialisation phase ?– Youth as a period for struggle for social
status?– Youth as a period with a value of its own?
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
ProblemsProblems--explanationsexplanations--solutionssolutions• BAC and Nordic countries faces the same
problems– Aging society– Shortage of labour– Globalisation
• Immigrant policy and integration• Global competition
– Polarisation• Financial• Values etc.
• Challenges differ in in scale and scope
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
EU 25 population EU 25 population projection projection 20072007--20172017
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0-4
5-9
10-
14
15-
19
20-
24
25-
29
30-
34
35-
39
40-
44
45-
49
50-
54
55-
59
60-
64
65-
69
70-
74
75-
79 80+
%
Source: Eurostat 2007. Baseline Varianthttp://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Demographic trendsDemographic trendsUnder 14 Over 65
1995 2005 1995 2005
BAC 13.3 11.5 15.1 19.3
Sweden 18.9 17.6 17.4 17.3
Finland 19.1 17.5 15.3 15.0
Denmark 17.3 18.8 15.3 15.0
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
ChallengesChallenges BACBAC• Low fertility • Moderate participation in workforce
– Women– Young people
• Mobility and flexibility• Cohesion
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Problems Problems -- explanationsexplanations -- solutionssolutions
• Barriers to fertility– Practical and economic burdens and risks for
families– Structural reasons (housing, lack of childcare etc.)– Values and gender roles
• Barriers to participation in workforce – Women (obligations to other family members)– Young people – late emancipation etc.
• Relatively low mobility• Relatively high inequality
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Employment rate females, 2006Employment rate females, 2006
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
BAC
Denmark
Finland
Sweden
Source: EUSTAT, 2007
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Problems Problems –– explanationsexplanations -- solutionssolutions
• Does the Nordic model offer solutions?– ”Copy/page” of course not a possibility– Traditions and cultures differ– Centuries/decades of development, adjustment
and fine-tuning of complex and integratedprograms
– A package: you can not ”pick and choose”– Mutual inspiration is worthwhile
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Quality of Life and Quality of Life and ProductivityProductivity
Quality of life, (scale 1-10), 2006 Labor producivity, (GDP/employee), 2005
Placering Land Gns. Placering Land US$ 1 Iceland 9,41 3 Iceland 101.2112 Denmark 9,36 4 Denmark 94.8003 Norway 9,34 1 Norway 127.9464 Finland 8,73 8 Finland 80.35966 SSwweeddeenn 88,,5588 66 SSwweeddeenn 8877..2233444 Germany 8,73 12 Germany 71.9247 Netherlands 8,42 10 Netherlands (2004) 76.2478 Ireland 8,32 2 Ireland 102.4899 USA 8,29 5 USA 88.105
10 France 8,20 7 France 84.42511 Spain 7,47 14 Spain 59.20812 United Kingdom 7,14 11 United Kingdom (2004) 74.991 13 Japan 6,90 9 Italy 78.02814 Italy 6,73 13 Japan 71,864
Kilde: IMD
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Fertility Fertility rates, rates, percentagepercentage 20062006
1,31,31,31,31,3
1,41,6
1,81,81,8
1,91,9
22,9
4,85,6
6,86,9
1,2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
BACSpainItaly
GreecePolandJapan
PortugalChina
DenmarkSwedenNorway
IrlandFrance
USAIndiaIraq
PalestinaAfghanisSomalia
Ref.:Population Reference Bureau, 2006
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
All birthsAll births –– avarage avarage age age of mothers of mothers (Denmark)(Denmark)
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Age
YearDanmarks StatistikDanmarks Statistik
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
0 20 40 60 80
806040200
Around 1950
Around 2010
Dep
ende
nt
Inde
pend
ent
Free
1
Pare
nts
Free
II
Elde
rly
Life Phases – global trends
Age
Age
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
TheThe freefree I I onesones(20(20--30+ 30+ yearsyears))
• ” I've got no strings to hold me”• ”Everything is possible”
– Selvrealisation, mobility, city-nomades, experience the world
• The pursuit of happiness, the perfect match– Education, job, partner……….. – Eksperiments
• Try oneself out/find yourself• ”Stepstones” rather than possible ”dead ends”• Lifestyles and subcultures
• ”Global” networks” – cyberspace + ”meatspace”
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Reasons Reasons for for avoiding parenthoodavoiding parenthood. . Europe Europe Childless people aged Childless people aged 1818--3939
25%Don´t want a child25%Too old32%Prefer leisure time33%Job pressures33%Concern about health37%Wouldn´t enjoy life38%Expense44%Enjoy current lifestyle46%No steady partner48%Concern about the future
Newsweek. 2006
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
0
50
100
150
200
250
1907
1917
1927
1937
1947
1957
1967
1977
1987
1997
2005
2007
15-19 år20-24 år25-29 år30-34 år35-39 år40-44 år45-49 år
Fertility Fertility –– birthsbirths pr. 1000 pr. 1000 women women in age in age groups groups (DK)(DK)
ModernisationIndustrialisation
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Source: Paris Match, 12. juli 2001, s. 74
”In 2013 it will benormal”Dr. Vicken Sahakian from Pacific FertilityCenter i LA
Jeanine 62. With twins
Worlds oldest mother Adriana Iliescu (67)
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
EmancipationEmancipation--howhow• Going abroad/travelling/”a sabbath year”
– ”Young danes spend 4 years ”more than necessary” to complete their final education!”
• Responsibilities and jobs and in a young age• Alternatives to living with parents• Practical and economic barriers to start (a family) on
your own, if lack of:– affordable housing – (parttime) jobs– affordable childcare– public benefits (student and parents)
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Share of Share of ””childrenchildren”” 1818--30 30 years old years old living with parents living with parents (Denmark)(Denmark)
17,5
18
18,5
19
19,5
20
20,5
21
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Perc
enta
ge
Ref.: Danmarks Statistik
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Young Young people living with parents people living with parents (Denmark)(Denmark)
0102030405060708090
100
15år
16år
17år
18år
19år
20år
21år
22år
23år
24år
25år
26år
27år
28år
29år
30år
Perc
enta
ge
19912001
Ref.: Danmarks Statistik
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Share of people renting their homeShare of people renting their home
0102030405060708090
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95+
Years
Perc
enta
ge
Ref: SBI 2008
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Copenhagen Copenhagen –– thethe city city ofof thethe youngyoung
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
0 år
4 år
8 år
12 å
r16
år
20 å
r24
år
28 å
r32
år
36 å
r40
år
44 å
r48
år
52 å
r56
år
60 å
r64
år
68 å
r72
år
76 å
r80
år
84 å
r88
år
92 å
r96
år
Perc
enta
ge
City of Copenhagen Denmark
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Housing ownershipHousing ownership--structurestructure (DK)(DK)
• Privately occupied and owned: 53%• Rental (privately owned): 20%• Rental (collectively owned): 27%
– ”Social” housing: 20%– Cooperative housing: 7%
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Share of young people Share of young people living living in in rental rental homes homes has has increasedincreased (Denmark(Denmark
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 1995 2000 2005 2006
30-64 years25-29 years20-24 years
Ref: SBI, 2008
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Housing Housing for for young people young people (Denmark)(Denmark)• Many small rental flats in university towns• Cooperative housing • Rents in old houses are regulated (price ceiling) • Co-housing in big flats (2,3,4 students)• Affordable youth housing (part of social
housing)• Students houses (30.000 rooms)• Parent buying a flat and renting it to children
(tax incentive)
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Housing Housing for for young peopleyoung people• New construction:
– Quotas to promote renatl housing etc.? • Property ”bust” – a chance to set up housing
associations (subsidised by government or sponsored by companies)?
• Company sponsored (attract young talent)
Tietgenkollegiet
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
A A complete welfare packagecomplete welfare package ((NorwayNorway))
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Four welfare state Four welfare state modelsmodelsNordic model• Same services to all in the state• Scandinavia• Socialdemocratic
Beveridge model•Services only to the worst off•UK/US•Liberal
Bismarck model•Services to those who have been in the labor market•Central Europe•Conservative
Subsidiarity model•Social issues to be solved as close to the family as possible
•Southern Europe•Church play a large role
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
““There is no such thing as a free lunchThere is no such thing as a free lunch””Tax Pressure, % of GDPTax Pressure, % of GDP
43,7%
50,7%
44%
50,4%
32,6%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
BAC
Denmark
Finland
Sweden
Norway
Source: OECD, 2005 & Churiaque, 2005
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Youth Youth and and welfare welfare (Denmark)(Denmark)
• The economic and practical burden and risks of raising children are moderate– Youth unemployment is low– Benefits from government are generous
• To students• To parents
• Income distribution is relativily flat– Overall– In relation to age
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
IncomeInequality
Earnings mobility
HighLow
High
Earnings mobility Earnings mobility and and income inequalityincome inequality
Re: OECD, 2008
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
IncomeIncome progression and ageprogression and age::Which Which is is the the most most ””reproduction friendlyreproduction friendly””??
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
ModernTraditional
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Student Student benefitsbenefits
Grant+loan (no job)11.000Total incl. loan
Mother: Study-loansFather: 15 hours work pr. week
20.5002 students, one child, net of tax
+ 800Each parent studiing
3-6 years old7-17 years old: 1.300 euros
1.800Per child allowance(all mothers)
4 pct. interest after examen4.100Student loan
1/2 allowance, if living with parents Own income up to 10.200 allowed without reductionIncome net of tax if 15 hours of work per week: 13.000 euros (grant+salary)
6.900Student grantNet of tax
CommentsYearly Euro
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
3.200First year salary, school teacher per month4.000Last year salary, school teacher per month
45%Tax rate (income from 4.500 to 45.000 euros)250Student house, 20 m2, monthly400Flat, two rooms, 60 m2, Copenhagen, monthly0.9Milk, 1 liter2,4Bus ticket, city15Typical student salary per hour:
EurosPrices and salaries, DK
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
ParentsParents//careercareer(30(30--55 55 yearsyears))
• ”The many strings that holds me”– Fredom is curtailed
• Time pressure/economic pressure• Both work fulltime• Project ”the happy family”• ”Project home”• Dad want to be DAD• Challenge: Balance
– family, study/career, me
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
52322144Benefitsweeks
TotalTo sharebetween parents
FatherMotherMother
TotalAfter birthBefore birth
Maternity leave Maternity leave and and benefitsbenefits((if working fultimeif working fultime))
•Benefit per month: 2030 euros (minimum)
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
DayDay--care care and and kindergartenkindergarten
• A public welfare service• Up to 25 percent own payment• Free for low income families (f.ex.
students)
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Share of children attending dayShare of children attending day--care care kindergarten kindergarten and and youth clubsyouth clubs, (Denmark), (Denmark)
Ref.: Danish Government, 2006
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Danish Danish youth are both workingyouth are both working and and studiingstudiing
2234
59
4341
1624
17 98 5 11
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
18-21 years 22-25 years 26-29 years
Perc
enta
ge
Other
Studiing only
Studiing & working
Working parttime
Working fultime
Re.:Nordea, 200810% more then 20 hours weekly26% more than 15 hours weekly
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Share of school children also working Share of school children also working (13(13--17 17 yearsyears oldold))
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
13 years 14 years 15 years 16 years 17 years
Perc
enta
ge
Most work 1-10 hours weekly
13 % of 17 years old work more than 10 hoursRef.: Nordea
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
TheThe ””independentindependent”” youngyoung(12(12--19 19 yearsyears))• ”Self-reliant” (but also more protected?) • More complex and ”dangerous” world• ”Social & individualistic”• Identity is important• Lifestyle comsumption, brands • Social medias, games
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for FremtidsforskningLife isLife is full of choicesfull of choices……
But But whichwhich roadroad to to choosechoose??