10 tendenser mod 2020 - Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
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Transcript of 10 tendenser mod 2020 - Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Hvem er vi?• Grundlagt i 1970 af Thorkil
Kristensen
• Medlemsbaseret non-profit forening
• Privat, neutral og uafhængig
• Tværfaglig tænketank • (økonomer, politologer, etnologer,
kommunikationsfolk, sociolog, astrofysiker og filosof)
• Ca. 25 medarbejdere
• Medlemmer, projekter, kurser, foredrag, SCENARIO
• City Future Clubs
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Om 10 tendenser
• Opfølgning på 10 tendenser mod
2010
• Resultatet af en længere
selektionsproces, hvor de forskellige
tendenser er blevet kvalificeret af
IFF’s fremtidsforskere
• Feed-back på vigtighed fra
erhvervsledere i store danske
virksomheder (Nykredit, Nordea,
Ericsson, Novozymes m.fl.)
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Lederne siger…
Panelets bedømmelse Særdeles uvigtig
Uvigtig Vigtig Særdeles vigtig
Hvor vigtig er tendensen
for samfundet og verden?
2 30 84 64
Hvor vigtig er tendensen
for din branches fremtid?
23 61 60 26
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Pecha Kucha
• Japansk oprindelse; opgør med
lange og kedelige præsentationer
• Præcist, hurtigt og underholdende
• 20 slides á 20 sekunder
• I alt 6 min. og 40 sek.
• Læn jer tilbage og nyd turen!
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Fremtidsforsker Mette Skovbjerg
Løveøkonomier
Forskningsområder: International politik, klima og mangfoldighed
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
For 10 år siden proklamerede The
Economist, at Afrika var ”the
hopeless continent”.
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Afrikas vækst fordelt på sektorer
05
1015202530
Ressou
rcer
Engro
s/det
ailLa
ndbr
ug
Trans
port/t
eleko
m.
Fremsti
lling
Finansie
ring
Off. A
dm.Byg
geri
Ejendo
mTur
isme
Forsy
ning
Andet
% 1
00%
= U
SD
235
mia
.
Sektor
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
70 % af væksten i
løveøkonomierne er
skabt af
servicesektorer
som
telekommunikation,
bankvæsen, byggeri
og detailhandel
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Væksten ser
også ud til at
kunne blive
langvarig …
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Vi skal revurdere
vores opfattelse af
Afrika som
marked…
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Den typiske afrikanske forbruger
anno 2020?
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Frugal Innovation
– spartansk innovation
BoP produkter
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Produkter
tilpasset de
afrikanske
forbrugere
– simple og
billige
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Produktmålretning fra
en kinesisk
computerproducent
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Rider danske
virksomheder
med på bølgen?
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Danske eventyr i Afrika
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Men hvilken vej skal
man gå ind på det
afrikanske marked?
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Og hvad skal man så
ellers holde øje med?
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Kinas
tilstedeværelse i
Afrika
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Fremtidsforsker Troels M. Krankér
Co-creation
Forskningsområder: Bæredygtig ledelse, talent, co-creation, konkurrenceevne
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Co-creation=fremtidens vækst
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Skabende fælleskaberDemokratiseringForbrugermagt+indflydelse+fri information
Hvorfor Co-creation?
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 202010 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Skabende fælleskaberGlobalisering Flad forbundet verden
Hvorfor Co-creation?
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
SamARBEJDE
SamSKABELSE
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Crowdsourcing?
Open innovation?
User-driven innovation?Mass collaboration?
CoCo--Creation Creation –– not just not just
CoCo--operationoperation!!
Lead user innovation?
Open source?
Værdi
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Fællesskaber ?.0
frivillighed
lystinteresse
motivation
Fortidens (pligt)fællesskaber
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Demokratisering
GlobaliseringSamskabelse Mangfoldigt innovationsboost
Større konkurrence
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
The world is networked
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
De gamle hierarkiers fald
Organisation
kunder
Organisation kunder
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
KonkurrenceevnefordelCo-creation
Co-created competitive advantage
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
•50+ % af deres produkter udvikles med eksterne
•R&D produktivitet 60 % forbedret
•Olay Regenerist
•Swiffer
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
•Contributed 15,115 ideas
•Promoted 736,757
•Posted 90,968 comments
•Implemented 430 ideas
•2,84 % ideer i produktion!
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Total Solvers: 200,000+ from 200 countries
Total Challenges Posted: 1044
Project Rooms Opened to Date: 294,865
Total Solution Submissions: 19,346
Total Awards Given: 685
Total Award Dollars Posted: $24.2 million
Range of awards: $5,000 to $1 million based on the complexity of the problem
Total Dollars Awarded: $5.3 million
Average Success Rate: 50%
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
•Tilføjede ca. 15 % market share fra ca. 47 % 2007 til ca. 61 % i 2009
•Verdens største løbeklub
•Designer nye sko med løberne
•Tester nye produkter på løberne
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Slip kontrollen over produktet for at få kontrollen over markedet!
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
•Håndtere og navigere i kompleksitet
•Forny global relational equity til nuværende og nye stakeholdere
Co-creation leadership
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Co-created organisationsstruktur
•Transparent
•Levende organisme - tilpasning
•Netværksbaseret
•Åben
•Decentral
•Dynamisk
•Uformel
•Flad
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Nye talenter•Alle er potentielle samskabere/potentielle nye medarbejdere
•Bredere og mere mangfoldig talentpool
•Din nye CCO?
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
•Prosumer
•Empowered
•Mass customization
•Connected/networked
•Integreret
•Loyale
•Brand ownership
•Stærkere følelsesmæssige bånd
Ny forbrugerrolle
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
CCO – Cheif Co-creation OfficerCo-creation department
Co-creation uddannelser
Co-creation scenarie 2020Co-created value asset
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Closed
Vs.
$319.66B
$155.05B
(Exxon Mobil) $392.51B
Open
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Fremtidsforsker Mette Skovbjerg
Regulering
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Springbræt eller spændetrøje?
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Globale problemer kræver globale løsninger?
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Klimaforandringer
og finanskrise
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Sammenbrud i internationale forhandlinger
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Forsigtigheds-
paradigmet
Det proaktionære
paradigme
Regulering Marked
To paradigmer
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Forbrugeren eller industrien først?
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Europa versus USA
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Nye aktører vinder frem…
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Som ikke nødvendigvis er enige
med hverken Europa eller USA…
Eller hinanden!
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Derfor mere
regulering
globalt set –
men ikke
globaliseret
regulering!
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Producere
produkter til
hvert individuelt
marked?
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Producere efter
højeste
standard?
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Eller skabe sin egen standard?
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Et eksempel fra klima og
bæredygtighedsdiskussionen
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Sustainability Index
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
“We know we need to get ready for a world in which energy will only be
more expensive ”
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Når man ikke kan skabe globale
standarder for regulering, skaber
man plads til kvasi-regulatorer =
globale virksomheder
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Fremtidsforsker Troels M. Krankér
Genprofiler
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Genprofiler
• Dit genetiske
fingeraftryk
• Pris på genprofiler
er i USA faldet til
$100-300
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Min egen genetiske profil
• Hvilke lidelser er
jeg disponeret for?
• Hvilken medicin
virker for mig?
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Kend dig selv
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
”Fortrydelse” og straf
• Identifikation i
fadderskabssager
• Opklaring af mord,
voldtægt m.m.
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Er det til at stole på?
• Risiko for
forbytning
• Risiko for
forurening
• Manglende viden
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Nationale DNA-registre
• Danmark gemmer
blodprøver fra alle
nyfødte siden 1981
• Bl.a. Portugal vil lave
DNA-register for
hele befolkningen
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Frygt for misbrug
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Vedlæg venligst din DNA-profil
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Præmiegener
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Etiske retningslinjer
• USA: Forbudt at
bede om DNA-
profiler af kunder
og ansatte
• Europa: 2 af 3
lande har ingen
lovgivning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Genterapi
”Et forsøg på at
ælte dejen efter
brødet er bagt”
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
En gavnlig infektion
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Kroppen som medicinproducent
• Celler kan ’lære’
at producere
nødvendig
medicin
David Vetter, ”bubble boy”
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Få produkter
på markedet i
dag…
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
… men stort potentiale
• Farveblindhed
• Skaldethed
• Cancer
• Diabetes
• Blødersyndrom
• Pacemaker
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Er vi for bange?
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
In utero genterapi
• Behandling før
fødslen
• Permanent og
arvelig effekt
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Genetisk elite?
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Frihed eller tvang?
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Konklusion:
Enormt potentiale
Enorme udfordringer
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Fremtidsforsker Mette Skovbjerg
Ældre-boom
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Genkai Shuraku
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
18.775
![Page 94: 10 tendenser mod 2020 - Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052820/548d8f98b47959d85c8b45c4/html5/thumbnails/94.jpg)
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 202010 TENDENSER MOD 2020
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0-4
5-9
10-
14
15-
19
20-
24
25-
29
30-
34
35-
39
40-
44
45-
49
50-
54
55-
59
60-
64
65-
69
70-
74
75-
79
80-
84
85-
89
90+
Befolkningsudviklingen Danmark 2010-2020
Kilde: DS 2009
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
0
1
2
3
4
5
![Page 96: 10 tendenser mod 2020 - Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052820/548d8f98b47959d85c8b45c4/html5/thumbnails/96.jpg)
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Ældrebyrde
eller
arbejdsstyrke?
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
FREMTIDENS RESSOURCE TIL Sustainable Competitive Advantage
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020World Economic Forum
Business Models by Design
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
45%af den private formue i Danmark ligger
hos +65 allerede i dag
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Gerontokrati
![Page 103: 10 tendenser mod 2020 - Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052820/548d8f98b47959d85c8b45c4/html5/thumbnails/103.jpg)
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Bjarne Hastrup
Danmarks måske mest magtfulde mand i Fremtiden?
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Jeg er sguJeg er sguJeg er sguJeg er sgu’’’’ ikke ikke ikke ikke æææældreldreldreldre
![Page 105: 10 tendenser mod 2020 - Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052820/548d8f98b47959d85c8b45c4/html5/thumbnails/105.jpg)
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
0 20 40 60 80
806040200
De nye livsfaser
Ca. 1950
2015
Afh
Afh
ææng
ige
ngig
e
Uaf
hU
afh
ææng
ige
ngig
e
Frie
IF
rie I
ForFor
ææld
reld
re
Frie
IIF
rie II
ÆÆld
reld
re
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Markedsføringsfokus!
![Page 109: 10 tendenser mod 2020 - Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052820/548d8f98b47959d85c8b45c4/html5/thumbnails/109.jpg)
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Fremtidsforsker Troels M. Krankér
Talent
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Talent som fremtidens vækstskaber
=
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Hvorfor talent som vækstskaber?Ny Definition
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Hvorfor talent som vækstskaber?
Finanskrise Organisk vækstopkøb og fusioner Talentjagt
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Hvorfor talent som vækstskaber?
Demografisk krise Aldring Lav fødelsrate+ Arbejdskraft/talentmangel
![Page 115: 10 tendenser mod 2020 - Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052820/548d8f98b47959d85c8b45c4/html5/thumbnails/115.jpg)
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Ny Talentpool
Ny definition Bredere mangfoldig talentpool
Færre originaler tabes i udd. og på arb. marked
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Talentbaseret konkurrenceevne
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Global konkurrence for talent og jobs
Talentmobilitet
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Metropol-strategier for Den Kreative Klasse
Richard Floridas 3 T’er
•Technology
•Tolerance
•Talent
![Page 119: 10 tendenser mod 2020 - Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052820/548d8f98b47959d85c8b45c4/html5/thumbnails/119.jpg)
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Lempelse af immigrationspolitik
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Investering i strategisk HR
•HR konkurrenceevne
•Employer branding
•Talent management
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Fremtidens konkurrenceparameter
Opdage, tiltrække, udvikle og fastholde
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Nye behov fra talenterne
GoGood bølge!92 %Personlig udvikling+mening
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Meningsfuld employer branding
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Vedlæg venligst hjernescanning!
•Mængde og placering af grå og hvid substans i hjernen=oparbejdet talent
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Talenttilpasset organisationsstruktur
•Decentral
•Dynamisk
•Uformel
•Flad
•Netværksbaseret
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Corporate rebels with causes
=
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Talentkrav til lederen
•Mere leder/coach end faglig ekspert – feedback!
•Emotional management
•Individuel ledelse
•Situationsbestemt ledelse
•Uformel ledelse
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Corporate universities
•Eksperter fra Stanford, Berkeley, Carnegie Mellon, MIT, NASA
•2 Nobel Pris modtagere
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Talent capital på årsregnskabet
•Fra omkostning til aktiv!
•Problematisk at måle
•Ikke inkluderet i FASB, GAAP og IFRS
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Dansende talent capital
•Nuværende standarder=industritankegang
•Øget investering i forskning i ROTC=vidensøkonomi-tankegang
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Fremtidsforsker Mette Skovbjerg
Europas tid er forbi
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Europas politiske, militære og
økonomiske dominans sluttede med
2. Verdenskrig
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Vores politiske og militære
betydning er reduceret…
Og nu ser det også sort ud for
økonomien
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Vi er blevet trætte
• Gæld, manglende overblik,
handlingslammelse
• Faldende vækst: kun 1,1% i ’nullerne’
• Milton Friedman: Euroen overlever ikke første
krise
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Der er rod i økonomienOffentligt underskud i % af BNP, 2009
-16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0
IrlandGrækenland
StorbritannienSpanienPortugalLetlandLitauen
RumænienFrankrig
PolenSlovakiet
EU27Euro-zone
CypernTjekkiet
SlovenienHollandItalienUngarn
BulgarienMaltaØstrig
TysklandDanmarkFinlandEstland
LuxembourgBelgienSverige
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Og verden har opdaget det
”Europe just doesn't get it.
It does not get how
irrelevant it is becoming to
the rest of the world. And it
does not get how relevant
the rest of the world is
becoming to its future. The
world is changing rapidly.
Europe continues to drift.”
Kishore Mahbubani,
”Europe’s Errors”,
Time, 8. marts 2010
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
So Long Lisbon Strategy
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Kort og lang sigt…
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Du er endt i den forkerte verdensdel
– ryk frem til en anden i 10 år
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Old Europe
Broke Europe
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Emerg
ing m
arkets
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Old Europe
Broke Europe
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Emerg
ing m
arkets
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Old Europe
Broke Europe
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Emerg
ing m
arkets
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Stævn ud mod nye horisonter
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Eller læg dig på hjul hos MNCer
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Eller få ophævet geografien hurtigst
muligt
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Kerneydelser under krise
Børsen, 23. August 2010
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for FremtidsforskningEllers ender vi i verdens svar på
Thy
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Men det kan jo også være malerisk …
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Fremtidsforsker Troels M. Krankér
Mental Doping
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Kognitiv stimulans
• Præstations-
fremmende
midler
• Kendt fra sport –
nu også på
arbejde!
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Mere damp på!
• Metylfenidat
(Ritalin): Bedre
koncentration og
indlæring
• Adderall: Bedre fokus
og koncentration,
mindre træthed
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Naturlige begrænsninger, nej tak!
• Modafinil: Fjerner
søvnbehov i op til 40
timer
• Betablokkere:
modvirker stress og
nervøsitet
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Mere og mere udbredt
• 10 % af studerende
på Cambridge har
brugt mental doping
• 25% på nogle
amerikanske
universiteter!
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Hvorfor?
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Brain gain
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
På kanten af loven
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Bør det forbydes?
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Bør det legaliseres?
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Kan man håndhæve et forbud?
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Er det farligt?
• Få medicinske
bivirkninger
• Risiko for
afhængighed
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Glidebane?
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Er det snyd?
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Kun for de dumme?
“Those who have the least ability
in a particular area are likely to
see the greatest drug-related
improvement”
Maia Szalavitz: “Popping Smart Pills”, Time/CNN, Jan. 06, 2009
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Erstatning for sund livsstil?
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Skal vi have en politik?
• Skal vi forbyde
mental doping?
• Skal vi tillade det?
• Dyrke en laissez
faire-attitude?
• Eller tilskynde til
brugen af det?
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Har vi råd til
at sige nej?
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Får vi lov at sige nej?
“Once highly safe and
effective cognitive
enhancers are
developed … the
question will arise
whether they should
be added to the
water, like fluoride”
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Julian Savulescu,
professor, Oxford
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Fagre nye verden
• En fremtid med
overmennesker?
• …eller narkovrag?
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Tag en slapper…
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
1,3,7-trimethylxanthine
Koffein!
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Fremtidsforsker Mette Skovbjerg
Det uperfekte
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10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
”You need big breasts to be successful”
vs.
Do Ocracy
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Den uperfekte medarbejder
Den uperfekte arbejdskultur
Den uperfekte forbruger
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Extreme make-over i Japan, ”Western eye”
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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Tyske plastic-kirurger anslår, at de i 2008 opererede 100.000 piger under 20 år
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
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CBS, Ford, Gap, General Mills, InterContinental Hotels Group, JetBlue, Kmart, Kraft Foods, Macy's, McDonald’s, Pepsi, Sara Lee, Sears, Showtime, The Advertising Council, Unilever and Warner Bros.
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!<
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10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
�� Krop: ensretning, rigide Krop: ensretning, rigide
skskøønhedsidealernhedsidealer
�� MMåål: tilpasningl: tilpasning
�� Mentalitet: positionering, closedMentalitet: positionering, closed
�� Krop: ukultiveret Krop: ukultiveret
�� MMåål: originalitet, no rules, DIY l: originalitet, no rules, DIY
�� Mentalitet: nuMentalitet: nu--ggøørr--vivi--det bare, det bare,
afsafsøøger, undersger, undersøøger, openger, open
UPERFEKTHEDSUPERFEKTHEDS--PARADIGMETPARADIGMET
You need big/00You need big/00’’erneerne Do Ocracy/mod 2020Do Ocracy/mod 2020
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020
Fremtidsforsker Troels M. Krankér
Lande på spring
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Next 11
Bangladesh
Ægypten
Indonesien
Iran
Sydkorea
Mexico
Nigeria
Pakistan
Filippinerne
Tyrkiet
Vietnam
Goldman Sachs, 2005
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Eller måske nogle lidt andre landeDe 10 hurtigst voksende lande 2010-2015 iflg IMF
• Eritrea• Mongolia• Belarus• Russia• Kazakhstan• Uzbekistan• Ghana• Kenya• Iraq• China
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Det er en forudsigelig udvikling
”Vi må regne med et voksende antal
mellemindkomstlande som konkurrenter, men
også som markeder, hvis vi forstår at arbejde
under deres politiske og kulturelle
omstændigheder. Inden år 2005 må vi regne
med, at Kina, og måske Indien, vil høre til disse
lande”.
Kilde: IFF: Mod år 2005, 1980
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Som krisen får til at komme før forventet
Fornyet vækst Stagnation i Vesten
Hurtig tilpasning
Langsom tilpasning
A serious hangover
12 måneders turbulensNy vækst i 2010
• Udrensning
• Markedet virker med hjælp til
selvhjælp
New world order
12 måneders turbulensStagnation i Vesten
• Aldring og øget opsparing i
Vesten
• Nye verden ”kan selv”,
dekobling
Sustainable new growth
3 års turbulens Ny vækst i 2012
• New Global Green Deal
• Velfærd og infrastruktur
• Off./private partnerskaber
Global capitalism’s
check-mate
3 års turbulensStagnation globalt
• Protektionisme
• Statsovertagelser
• Social uro og nationalisme
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Og hvor vi derfor halter bagefter
udviklingen …
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Danmarks eksport 2009 til
BRIK (1000 kr.)
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
RuslandKinaIndienBrasilien
Kilde: Statistikbanken.dk
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Danmarks eksport 2009 til
BRIK og Holland (1000 kr.)
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
HollandRuslandKinaIndienBrasilien
Kilde: Statistikbanken.dk
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Danmarks eksport 2009 til
BRIK, Holland og Sverige (1000 kr.)
0
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
70000000
SverigeHollandRuslandKinaIndienBrasilien
Kilde: Statistikbanken.dk
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Danmarks eksport 2009 til
BRIK, Holland, Sverige og Next Eleven (1000 kr.)
0
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
70000000
Vietnam
Tyrkiet
Sydkorea
Philippinerne
Pakistan
Nigeria
Mexico
Iran
Indonesien
Egypten
Bangladesh
Sverige
Holland
Rusland
Kina
Indien
Brasilien
Kilde: Statistikbanken.dk
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Dansk eksportvækst 2007-2009Top 10 alt i alt
-2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
Marshalløerne
Lesotho
Aruba
Tuvalu
Cookøerne
Uoplyst land 3. Lande
Rwanda
Brunei
Dominica
Comorerne
Samlet eksport
Kilde: Statistikbanken.dk
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Dansk eksportvækst 2007-2009Top 10 blandt de 40 største eksportmarkeder
-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Singapore
Mexico
Rumænien
Kina
Australien
Hongkong
Slovakiet
Brasilien
Saudi Arabien
Indien
Samlet eksport
Kilde: Statistikbanken.dk
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
DERFOR: Kickstart din virksomheds vækst på markeder, hvor der
allerede ER vækst
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Men hvordan?
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Importér eksportørerDe 20 største emigrationslande
10
7 ,3
6 ,1
4 ,9 4 ,4 4 ,2 4 ,1 3,7 3 ,6 3 ,5 3,42 ,7 2 ,4 2 ,3 2 ,3 2 ,3 2 ,2 2 ,2
11,5 11,5
02
46
810
1214
Mex
ico
Rus
land
Indi
en
Kin
a
Ukr
aine
Ban
glad
esh
Tyr
kiet
Sto
rbrit
anni
en
Tys
klan
d
Kaz
akst
an
Fili
ppin
erne
Italie
n
Pak
ista
n
Mor
okko
Egy
pten
Pol
en
Ser
bien
og
US
A
Vie
tnam
Uzb
ekis
tan
Antal emigranter i millioner
Migration and Remittances Factbook 2008
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Eller sælg viden – det har status derudeBRIC willing to pay for online content
01020304050607080
G7 BRIC
Yes, I would be willing to pay for access to the co ntent of the entire site
Yes, I would be willing to pay for access to ste co ntent, but only for specific sections
No, I would not be willing to pay for access to ste content, and would look for the same orsimilar content elsewhere through a "free" site
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Eller lad os passe de gamlePopulation Forecast China 2010-2020
1,16%
18,92%14,05%
48,36%
19,27%
29,86%
73,05%
36,10%
12,73%
24,67%
39,37%
-5,47%
-13,20%-18,58% -17,70%
-23,38%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89
SourceSourceSourceSource: UN
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Eller hjælp kineserne med at fyre
med kul
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Eller sælg tøj til dem
Som i Bestsellers 3000 butikker i Kina
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Eller tag på valsen i Eritrea
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Eller tag til BeyondBRIC d. 10. november
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Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Tak for i dag!
Følg med på
www.iff.dk
Kontakt
Jessica Panke Wagner
10 TENDENSER MOD 2020