COP21 & Energy Union: cool? Or cold?

Ljubljana– Energy Council(11 March 2016)Jean-Michel Glachant Director “Florence School of Regulation”@ European University Institute – Florence (Italy)

Cool…

Or Cold…

WHY?

I/ COP 21 is coolWhat was it about?

• About 200 countries entering an Agreement in April 2016-17

• Target is +2°C with smile to +1.5°C & all voluntary pledges; with Launching big Conf in 2018 (grouping all pledges + defining methodology & rules)

• First World Review 2023 then every 5 years (2028; etc)

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II/ Cool: Energy Union well startedWhat was it about?

• EU & MS already have their “Pledge & review” 2020-2030

• COP21 target +2°C goes well with EU 2020 and 2030 Targets

• EU (& MS?) will enter COP21 Agreement in April 2016

• First World Review only in 2023 hence EU can stick to its 2030 targets till 2028 World Conf?

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III/ Not so cool: Energy Union not so well startedWhat was it about?

• Target +2°C goes well with 2020 and 2030 EU targets but +1.5°C doesn’t; what will EU do for Launching big Conf in 2018 (world pledges + defining methodology & rules)?

• Nobody knows yet how EU (& MS?) own “EU 2018 Pledge & Review” process will enter into 2018 World Launching Conf

• First World Review 2023? Does EU stick to today’s EU 2030 targets till (2028 World Conf)? > EU disappears from world radar screen from 2016 to 2028? EU goes from cool to cold?

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IV/ Not so cool: Energy Union challengesWhat was it about?

• EU entering “EnerUn pledge & review” 2020 - 2030 era: How will it work as Energy Union is only “policy concept” with NO new institution? > let’s review few challenges EnerUn pillars

• Pillar SoS Gas (listen FSR Podcast ‘von Sydow’: “Tusk key” Energy Union”) Best friend “MS Gas SoS”: EU internal market reality: where MS SoS policy higher, MS Market policy lower

• Pillar SoS Power “key” of MS “renationalization” Best friend “MS Power SoS” is deep regionalization grids planning & system operation; reality: where MS SoS policy high, MS regionalization policy low (UK, Germany, France)

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V/ Not so cool bis: EnerUnion challengesWhat was it about?

• Market Design Achievement of internal market (= erasing all country borders) & Power Decarbonization should merge in same new Market Design >> where are MS building decarbonization investment on sustainable market frames?

• Distributed Generation & prosumers Power systems are becoming local Where are “local system & market operation frames” consistent with internal market?; robust cooperation frames between TSOs & DSOs? Unbundling DSOs?

• Digital Retail Platforms Google-isation entering car driving> driverless cars; where are driver-less energy retail platforms?

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To conclude? Yes COP21 cool reward given to EU Decarb Policy #But many Energy Union(s) could be drafted ahead #EnUn cool till 2030?…or soon cold & colder?

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Thank you for your attention

Email contact: jean-michel.glachant@eui.eu

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