COMRES GE2015 POLLING · COMRES TELEPHONE POLLS OCT. ‘ TO MAY ’ (3 WAVE MOVING AVERAGE) 4% 0 5...
Transcript of COMRES GE2015 POLLING · COMRES TELEPHONE POLLS OCT. ‘ TO MAY ’ (3 WAVE MOVING AVERAGE) 4% 0 5...
COMRES GE2015 POLLINGPRESENTATION TO BPC / MRS INQUIRY
19 JUNE 2015
Tom Mludzinski, Head of Political PollingAndy White, Head of Innovation
COMRES TELEPHONE POLLS OCT. ‘14 TO MAY ‘15
3028
2931
3435
3634
3635 35 35
3031
3230
32
35
3233
32
35
3234
9 9
12
8 8 89
12
87
9 9
1918
1617
13
1012 12
1011
1412
4
75
78
65
45
64 4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Oct/2014 Nov/2014 Dec/2014 Jan/2015 Feb/2015 Mar/2015 Apr/2015
Base: ComRes telephone polls, c.1,000 each wave
COMRES TELEPHONE POLLS OCT. ‘14 TO MAY ’15(3 WAVE MOVING AVERAGE)
4%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Dec/2014 Jan/2015 Feb/2015 Mar/2015 Apr/2015
Base: ComRes telephone polls, c.1,000 each wave
29
31
18
10
5
35
34
12
85
CAMPAIGN “POLL OF POLLS”
4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
29-Apr 30-Apr 01-May 02-May 03-May 04-May 05-May 06-May 07-May
Base: All published polls during campaign period, excluding those by ComRes
FINAL POLL AGAINST THE RESULT
5
ComRes Final Call*
Actual Result (GB)
Difference
Conservative 35% 37.7% +2.7
Labour 34% 31.1% -2.9
Lib Dem 9% 8.0% -1.0
UKIP 12% 12.9% +0.9
Green 4% 3.8% -0.2
Other 6% 6.4% +0.4
AVERAGE: ±1.3
*Interviewing ended 8pm on 6th MayBase: Telephone poll of 1,007 GB adults 5-6 May 2015 for Daily Mail / ITV News
SAMPLING & WEIGHTING
HOW COMRES CONDUCTED GE2015 POLLING
Sample- Telephone- Purchased randomly generated sample- Started with a sample balance of 85% landline, 15% mobile- Completed survey sample was c.20% mobile- Quotas on age, gender, region, social grade
48%
48%
48.7%
52%
52%
51.3%
Final poll
Campaign average
TargetsMen Women
QUOTAS CLOSELY MET
8
9%
10%
11.7%
17%
15%
17.2%
16%
16%
16.70%
18%
19%
17.90%
16%
17%
14.50%
24%
25%
22%
Final poll
Campaign average
Targets18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
29%
29%
27%
30%
30%
28%
20%
18%
22%
21%
23%
24%AB C1 C2 DE
9%
8%
8.70%
5%
4%
4.2%
11%
11%
11.4%
9%
9%
8.6%
9%
9%
9.0%
8%
7%
7.4%
5%
5%
5.0%
9%
10%
9.5%
13%
14%
13.3%
12%
15%
14.1%
9%
9%
8.8%
Scot. N.East N.West Y&H W.Mids E.Mids
Wales East Lon. S.East S.West
Base: Telephone poll of 1,007 GB adults 5-6 May 2015 for Daily Mail / ITV News
34% 34% 9% 12% 5% 5%Initial turnout
weights
35% 34% 9% 12% 4% 5%Final turnout
weights
34% 35% 9% 12% 4% 5%Past voteweights
38% 33% 8% 10% 5% 5%Unweighted
Con Lab LD
THE WEIGHTING ON THE FINAL POLL
9
Final Poll
34% 34% 8% 13% 5% 5%Demog weights
Base: Telephone poll of 1,007 GB adults 5-6 May 2015 for Daily Mail / ITV News
THE COMRES REVIEW
37.7%
35%
37%
31.1%
34%
32%
8.0%
9%
8%
12.9%
12%
12%
3.8%
4%
5%
4.8%
5%
5%
Result (GB)
Final ComRes poll (6th May)
Final ComRes poll - PM squeeze
Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP
“SQUEEZING” BY PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER
“PM Squeeze” – same interviews as final published poll, but reassigning “Don’t knows” to party of respondents’ choice for best Prime Minister, rather than to party they most identify with.
Base: Telephone poll of 1,007 GB adults 5-6 May 2015 for Daily Mail / ITV News
A FORWARD LOOKING DURABLE SOLUTION
TURNOUT VS. 10/10 IN 2015 AND 2010
13
2015 Turnout 2015 Final Poll10/10
2010 Turnout 2010 Final Poll10/10
65%70%
66%
78%
CONSTITUENCY RESULTS – TURNOUT (AGE)
14
R² = 0.1917
50.00%
55.00%
60.00%
65.00%
70.00%
75.00%
80.00%
35 40 45 50 55 60
Turn
out
Average age of constituency population
15
R² = 0.3671
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
40 50 60 70 80
Turn
out
% of C2DE in constituency
C2DE
R² = 0.3671
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
40 50 60 70 80
Turn
out
% of ABC1 in constituency
ABC1
CONSTITUENCY RESULTS – TURNOUT (SEG)
COMRES VOTER TURNOUT MODEL AT GE2015
Base: Telephone poll of 1,007 GB adults 5-6 May 2015 for Daily Mail / ITV News
37.7%
35%
36%
31.1%
34%
31%
8.0%
9%
10%
12.9%
12%
12%
3.8%
4%
5%
6.0%
6%
6%
Result (GB)
Final ComRes poll
Final poll adjusted forCVTM
Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others
“ADJUSTED TREND”
4%
38 3837
3637
36
3129
32
29 2931
910
910 10 1010
910
1214
12
46 6
75 5
Mar/2015 Apr/2015
Base: ComRes telephone polls, c.1,000 each wave, adjusted for the ComRes Likely Voter Model
• Systematic overstatement of Labour, understatement of Conservatives• UKIP, Lib Dems, SNP and Greens largely accurate
• Little evidence of dramatic late swing
• Unlikely to be one size fits all fix across the industry
• General Public sample is not the key issue• Need to improve way of identifying the voting public
• Constantly monitoring methods and available evidence• ComRes has worked hard ever since GE2015 to understand what went wrong and
how to move forward. Have been open about review and potential fixes• Not just about getting 2015 final polls correct, but looking to future• Looking forward to cooperating fully and working towards a speedy resolution
FINAL THOUGHTS
18