COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE - Dakota County€¦ · COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE Planning Commission...

Hoisington Koegler Group Inc.

COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE Planning Commission Meeting February 23rd, 2017

DAKOTA COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN

Planning Commission

Meeting • Introductions

– Hoisington Koegler Group – lead planners

– Short Elliot Hendrickson – technical support (transportation and environment/natural resources)

• Overview of project and schedule

• Overview and approach to stakeholder engagement

• Trends

• Discussion/reflection

Local

comprehensive

plan updates

Due

2018

10-Year Regional Planning Cycle

Local

Planning

Handbook and

System

Statements

Fall

2015

System and

policy plans

Transportation

Water

Housing

Parks

Jan

2015

Thrive

MSP

2040

May

2014

Census

2010

2011

2020 Census


Prepare the County to best respond to new requirements

DC 2040 Opportunities

Position the County to receive grant

funds

Establish new directions for County

services

Coordinate with cities and other

agencies on shared initiatives

Connect with our residents on what

they need and want


Project approach and

Schedule


County Role


Components of a

Comprehensive Plan

COMPONENTS

LAND USE

HOUSING

ECONOMY

TRANSPORTATION WATER

RESOURCES

PARKS &

TRAILS

RESILIENCE

IMPLEMENTATION


DC 2040 Plan Chapters

DC 2030 DC 2040 Required DC 2040 Optional

Natural Systems Transportation* Economic Competitiveness

Land Use and Growth

Parks and Open Space Resilience (climate change, energy)

Transportation Water Resources

Growing and Nurturing People

Land Use

Housing

Implementation

*recently updated



Schedule

ECONOMIC / DEMOGRAPHIC

INFORMATION


NATURAL

RESOURCES

PROTECTION

Regional Land Use Policies

ORDERLY &

EFFICIENT LAND

USE

ACCESS, MOBILITY, &

TRANSPORTATION

CHOICE

WATER

SUSTAINABILITY

ECONOMIC

COMPETITIVENESS

BUILDING IN

RESILIENCE

HOUSING

AFFORDABILITY

& CHOICE


Community Designations

Community designations group jurisdictions with similar characteristics for application of regional land use policies


Community Designations

Community designations group jurisdictions with similar characteristics for application of regional land use policies

Discourage

Growth

Encourage

Density


Dakota County Forecasts

The Council’s forecasts are used to help plan infrastructure needs and weave consistent growth expectations throughout the comprehensive plan. * Dakota County is projected to absorb 11-12% of regional growth.

Source: Met

Council


Dakota County Forecasts

POPULATION PROJECTIONS FROM METROPOLITAN COUNCIL

2010 2020 2030 2040

Developed Communities

Subtotal, Developed Communities --> 210,505 223,520 234,230 245,510

Growth Communities

Apple Valley 49,084 55,500 59,200 63,600

Farmington 21,086 24,300 28,300 32,500

Hastings 22,172 23,300 26,000 28,800

Lakeville 55,954 64,300 74,600 83,500

Rosemount 21,874 25,900 31,700 38,000

Subtotal, Developed Communities --> 170,170 193,300 219,800 246,400

Rural Areas

Subtotal, Rural Areas --> 17,877 19,050 20,640 22,140

Source: Met

Council


Affordable Housing Need

Allocation

The county is encouraged to help every community plan for their share of the region’s need for low and moderate income housing.

5,163

Source: Met

Council

TRENDS


National Suburban Trends

Source: ULI

• Still leading the nation’s growth:

– 2000-2015: Suburban areas represented 91% of population growth, top 50 metro areas

• Becoming younger, more diverse:

– 81% of those under 18 live in suburbs

– 75% of 25 – 34 year olds

– 76% of nation’s minority population


National Suburban Trends

• Lack of options for first time home buyers:

– 2015: First time buyers were 32% of purchases (lowest level since late ‘80s)

– Residential market focused on higher end homes due to profitability

– Regulations, impact fees, NIMBYism, cost of land and materials – all have driven the cost of new homes up

– Question going forward: Who can figure out affordable products for younger, and first time, buyers?

Source: ULI


Millennial Trends

• Millennials progress in life:

– Youngest Millennials shifting to family mode

– Desire better schools, more affordability - leading to a shift to suburbs

– Prefer suburban areas with aspects of urban living (walkability, gathering places, etc.)

– Prefer renovations & rehabbing of older homes (First ring suburbs).


Anticipated National Trends (ULI)

• Surge in household formation, 2016 - 2025:

– 12.5M new households (only 7M, from 2006-15)

– Suburbs of all kinds expected to absorb 79% of new households

– 58% of new households will be renters

– Anticipated trend toward renting detached homes (as opposed to apartments)

Source: ULI



• Demand for more walkable, cohesive suburban developments (“Surban”):

– Retail has become experience-driven

– Consumers want retail that is walkable from housing

• Diversity:

– Immigration will represent half of U.S. population growth through 2023

– Shift in immigration to affluent & upper-class families from emerging economies

Source: ULI



• “Surban” Development Attributes:

– Smaller homes, with little or no yards, meeting demands to commute less, live closer to restaurants & entertainment

– Housing affordability, home size, privacy, and kid-friendliness feel more urban than suburban



• “Surban” Development Attributes:

– School quality, public transportation, and proximity to employment feel more suburban

– Bring the “best of urban living” to more affordable suburban settings


Anticipated National Trends

• Increased e-commuting leads to “hotel-like” suburban offices

– Decrease in square feet per employee

• Workplaces focus on diversity, work-life balance, virtual teams, health & wellness


Anticipated National Trends

• Sharing economy

– Retail: Ridesharing and carsharing (Uber, Lyft, Zipcar)

– Retail: Independent connections from producers to sellers (Etsy, Ebay)

– Services: Car repair, home repair (Taskrabbit, Handy)

– Finance: Peer-to-peer financing / investments / lending (Kickstarter, Indiegogo)


Trends in Technology

• Connectedness

• Access to internet for

education and medicine

– Vulnerability of connected

systems


Parks and Recreation Trends

• Actively aging

– More senior fitness options & programming

– Desire for volunteer opportunities

– Adaptable, multi-faceted systems to respond to changing recreation demands


Parks and Recreation Trends

• Increased interest in trails

• Increasingly health conscious

• Increasingly environmentally conscious

• Concerns about climate change


Demands on Parks and

Recreation Systems

• Convenience

• Flexible hours

• More hours of

programming

• After-school

programming


Demands on Parks and

Recreation Systems

• More natural areas

• More educational / interpretive programs

• Balance of environment & recreation

• Desire for passive open space

• Interest in aesthetics and gardens


Athletic Facilities - Trends

• Designed for events, not just sports

• Include accessory amenities (concessions, restrooms, playground, trails)

• Rising demand for soccer fields

• New & niche sports (ultimate Frisbee, rugby, lacrosse, disc golf, etc.)


Athletic Facilities - Trends

• Emergence of year-round participation in single sports

• Rise of training programs

• Increased demand for multi-purpose fields

• Divergence of “elite” sports from recreational


Recreational / Community

Facilities - Trends

• Sports & wellness facilities have become centers of community social interaction & events

• Focus on multi-generational needs

• Meeting rooms, family entertainment areas, etc.

• Greater variety of offerings (climbing walls, yoga, pilates, etc.)


Trends in Aging

• Challenges with aging in the

suburbs (lack of transit,

houses not designed for

aging)

• Health care needs

– Alternatives to traditional long

term care facilities

– In-home care, granny flats,

tiny homes, cooperatives, and

new housing with care models


Equity

• Increasing wage

inequality

• Gender and racial equity

issues

• Relates to jobs mix in

Dakota County


Green Stormwater Trends

• Rainwater catchment or harvesting

• Rainwater irrigation systems

• Temporary containment of water (bioswales, rain gardens, etc.)

• Constructed wetlands

• Permeable pavements

• Green roofs


Transportation Trends

• Potential for autonomous vehicles

• Ride sharing helps solve “last mile” issues, may reduce congestion & pollution

• Use of technology (including smart phone apps) helps people choose the best multi-modal option(s)


Transportation Trends • Ride-sourcing services

for kids & seniors

• First / last mile partnerships with transit agencies

• Electric bike shares for hills, heat, wind, and sprawl

• Payment integration of one card and one app for all transportation needs


Transportation Trends • In 2014, Americans bought

more bicycles than cars and trucks

• Bike-friendly buildings with amenities (repair stations, showers and lockers, community gathering places) gaining popularity

• Younger people want more options besides cars for the 43% of trips that are less than three miles



• Integrated mobility hubs for car, bike, transit, car parking, and dropoff are key to smoothing transitions between modes

• Uber and Lyft are merely the “gateway drug” in mobility sharing



• Enhanced signal technologies (to provide for bike / pedestrian safety)

• Complete Streets facilities

– Pavement markings

– Protected bikeways

– Protected and raised intersections

– ADA compliance


Natural Resources Trends

• Focus on invasive species, particularly aquatics

• Impact of new state buffer law (along ditches, public waters)

• Focus on threatened and endangered species

• Enhancements to GIS data and remote sensing in analyzing natural resources


Water Trends

• Aquifer levels continue

to decline

• Increased

groundwater

contamination

(particularly in ag

areas)

• Focus on water

sustainability at

regional level


Solid Waste Trends

• Continued need to

encourage

adequate resource

recovery market

• Focus on source

reduction to reduce

waste levels


Solid Waste Trends

• Stagnant recycling rates

• Landfilling, organics, waste reduction could be the most powerful tools

• Organized collection

• Trash traveling great distances for processing or disposal


Additional Sustainability

Trends • Dramatic drop in cost of solar

technologies drives increased demand for solar panels, solar gardens

• Continued trends toward renewable energies, away from higher-carbon fossil fuels

• Significant opportunities for improved energy efficiencies in existing homes, businesses, and public buildings


Trends in Farming • Proliferation of pattern drain tile

• Extensive irrigation

• Increasing groundwater contamination

• Tenure changes uncertain (hard to transition to

new farmers)

• Consolidation of farms

• Monoculture with increasing national monopoly on

seed types (and decreasing genetic biodiversity)

and decrease in individual farmer choice

• Increase in fringe and pesticide resistant “super

weeds” disrupting ecosystems.

• Increasing divide between rural and urban,

reflected in decline of farming

• Increased number of “big” weather events with

climate change is modifying how farmers farm


Energy and Climate Change

Impacts

• Negative side of

renewables

– Rare earth element reliance

– Battery disposal

• Concern for inequity in

who is adversely impacted

by climate change

– Specific emphasis on

vulnerable populations


Engagement and Civic

Responsibility

• Challenge and

opportunity to

engage the

community in the

various planning

areas



Schedule

STAKEHOLDER AND PUBLIC

ENGAGEMENT


2017

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2018

Phase 1:

Inform and Listen

Phase 2:

Present, Discuss, and

Collaborate

Phase 3:

Report,

Discuss,

and Agree

= Key Community

Engagement

Engagement Phases


Key Events by Phase

• Phase 1

– Survey

– Vision Summit and focus groups – targeted survey

– Public “open house” or “intercept”

• Phase 2

– Vision Summit follow up and focus groups

– Web site content/survey

– Public “open house” or “intercept”

• Phase 3

– Web site content/survey

– Pop up events or intercepts

– Formal Public Hearing


Stakeholders


What’s Next

Hoisington Koegler Group Inc.

THANK YOU!

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