Competence Foresight 2030: Russian experience

Future competence demand anticipation in growing industries: Competence

Foresight 2030Dr. Pavel LukshaSKOLKOVO Education Development Center

Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO

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Developing tools for competence demand

anticipation: Skills Foresight 2030 and its

applications

Competence Foresight 2030

UACTransport Universities

Tools for focused competence demand anticipation & TVET policy revision in a specific growing industries (aircraft production and transportation & logistics industry)

Tools for competence demand anticipation through technological foresight lenses for new & growing industries

ILO project with SKOLKOVO

Developing & piloting tools for competence demand technological foresight

3Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO

Context for Competence Foresight 2030

1. Mismatch in labor market:• in formal sector, only 43% find jobs in accordance with their qualification• in informal sector, only 24% find jobs according to their qualification

2. Closing the productivity gap• current labor productivity is 32% of the US labor productivity• key government target: to increase no. of high-productivity jobs (30,000

USD/year) from 12 Mil in 2012 to 33 Mil in 2020• additional target: productivity growth going faster than wage growth

(currently, we are the only large emerging economy which has disadvantage to OECD countries in productivity adjusted for wage – and the gap is expected to grow)


Competence Foresight 2030 key

stakeholders


Strategic Initiatives Agency for the President of Russian Federation

Ministry of Science & Education of Russian Federation

Context: Development of the roadmap for the National System of Qualifications & Competencies

Context: Third National Foresight of Science & Technology


CF2030 context:

changing policy industrial agenda

Competence Foresight 2030: defining need for changes in curriculum & formats of TVET & HE for

growing tech-driven sectors

Changes in technologies, business processes &

managerial pratices due to technological progress and

social innovations

Growing pressure of global competition for markets and

talents

Increasing gap between Russian TVET & HE system and best international practices

Efforts of the government to kick-start the knowledge-intense economic sectors


Key issue: shortened

technology lifecycle in growing industries

New task emerges

New task is recognized & demand for new skill is formed

New training programs developed

Training is conductedfor new skills

Typical technology lifecycle in ‘old’ industries with low rate of technological change

…

…

‘Area of attention’ for skills foresght

Typical technology lifecycle in ‘new’ industries with high rate of technological change


CF2030 methodology (1)

Preliminary sector analysis, hypotheses regarding drivers of change

Formation of expert groups (employers, research sector, universities, professional associations,regulators, advisors)

Revision of results and preparation of reports

Report verification with additional expert pool

FORESIGHT SESSION

Final reports

Literature review Expert interviews

Rapid Foresight + Expert panels & Deep dives

Expert panels + SimulationsPolling

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SF2030 methodology (2)

Key trends that drive change in the sector

New ‘hard’ technologies

New ‘soft’ technologies (work organization, e.g. managerial innovations, new org. formats etc.)

New market opportunities (new

products & services)

New market threats (inc. competitive

technologies)

Change of working task structure

Tasks that can be resolved with existing skills & knowledge

Tasks that require new skills & knowledge (hence demand for

new competences)

Tasks that no longer need to be resolved

Key results of Skills 2030 Foresight


SF2030 key elements

Foresight of future industrial structure

Identification of key new & growing industries and global economy challenges. Meta-analysis of 30+ key foresights & forecasts by leading national foresight groups (+ over 50 international foresights)

Competence Foresight in key sectors

Foresight of competence demand for 19 growing & new sectors, including aerospace, energy generation, smart grids, nanotechnology, biotechnology, ICT, smart transportation, preventive & personalized medicine etc. Policy recommendations for HE&TVET system.Total ca. 500 experts in ca. 20 sessions + 1500 in polling

Dissemination of methodology

Dissemination of resultsReports for the Ministry of Education & Science and Strategic Initiatives Agency (Spring 2013) + public presentationsGeneral public report for professional orientation in collaboration with leading media agency (Summer-Fall 2013).Methodology (foresight & IT solution?)


Three levels of

competence description

Global challengesGeneral competences required: e.g. teamwork, communication skills, understanding of economic principles etc.Also: meta-competencesThese skills / competences to be delivered through the majority of TVET programs

Cross-sectoral challengesKey competences required to launch & support growth in new & existing sectors (in the view of thechnological development): ‘integrators’, ‘translators’, ‘adaptators’

Industry-specific challenges

Key competences to support practice transformation (new technological & managerial approaches), e.g. energy audit or smart grid architecture design in energy distribution sector


Industry-level results

‘Job of the future’ profiles

120 ‘job of the future’ profiles (bundles of key competences) in 19 industries

HE & TVET curriculumNew competences translated into recommended curriculum changes. E.g. for HE in medicine of the future, we defined four tracks with basic training in medicine & biology, math & ICT, physics & chemistry, and economics, with further medical specializationHowever: recommended, not implemented

Communication with general public

Industry level results converted into a career-recommendation tool: Map of 100 Jobs of The Future and List of 30 Dying Jobs (to be published in leading Russian media with the support of the Agency of Strategic Initiatives since July 2013)


Cross-sectoral specialists

in growing industries

Key working tasks for knowledge-intense economic sectors

2012-15 2015-20 2020-30

Key competencies

Integrated organization of R&D and production process for knowledge-intensive products

Working with markets to improve existing products (evolutionary innovations)

Creation & implementation of families of new products & solutions (disruptive innovations)

IntegratorsTranslatorsSpecialists to support industrial rennovation process

AdaptatorsStandardizers

System architects, technologists and safety experts


Demand for new skills: is anybody out

there?

Mature product industries

2012-2020 2020-2030

Machinery building, energy, transport, …

Young product industries

State-dependent industries

‘New’ energy, biotech & biomed, ‘new’ ICT

Lack of resources to support the skills demand for fast growing industry

Specialists to implement existing plans (continuation of the present)

Not ready to revise their product & maekrting models

Space, defense, rail transport

Skills demand not supported by TVET that does not recognize emerging industries

Skills demand largely covered by existing (Soviet) TVET system

Skills demand is subject to government strategic decisions

hostages of existing industrial models

hostages of weak industrial positions

hostages of government procurement


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Substantial share of new competencies in technology-driven sectors are cross-professional competencies or meta-competencies that go beyond the demand for competencies in specific sectors. Multidisciplinarity is among the key competitive advantages of the ‘worker of the future’.

For knowledge-based sectors, ‘ecosystemic’ approach is most productive: creation / preparation of teams with inter-dependent competencies that allow to invent, design, market, produce and support new products.

Future-oriented approach to skills & knowledge demand is necessary for the development of new industries. However, only a highly limited share of employers is ready to discuss their future needs. The key problem here is that most industries are lacking ‘translators’ that could help connect strategic planning, technological development and human resource preparation in the industry domain.

Our key findings


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Paradoxically, if we want our results to be implemented, we must get involved in the implementation (i.e. share responsibility with foresight users)

Case 1: UAC leading aircraft production company (ca. 70% of Russian production) with ambitious

development plans skills anticipation for new investment plans & R&D up to 2020 verification through comparison with industry leaders (Boeing & EADS) translated into existing TVET institutions & newly designed

Case 2: Ministry of Transportation skills anticipation to support industry strategy up to 2030 translated into existing & newly designed TVET institutions

Case 3: Roadmap of a new industry (children goods & services) skills anticipation as a part of the roadmap (and condition for successful launch) user skills are critical!

‘Grounding’ of



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Future development of tools

In Russian context

Focused studies and TVET policies recommendations for several industries, including:• transportation (five

segments: automotive, naval, aero, rail, city)

• goods & services for children

• nanotechnology

In international context

ILO project with SKOLKOVO:• international workshop

for methodology revision & development (July 2013)

• pilot projects in target countries (TBD)

Competence Foresight 2030: Russian experience

Technology

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