COMMON IBM Technology leadership and IT futures

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IBM Technology Leadershipand

IT FuturesCommon Europe

Congress Vienna, AustriaJune 9-12, 2012

Wolfgang Singer, Honorary Member of IBM IT-Specialist Community

[email protected]

Intellectual Property and Standards

© 2012 IBM Corporation2 IBM Patent Leadership2

USPTO Top 10 Patentees – 2011 IBM has the patent leadership

for the 19th consecutive year.

Hundreds of patents donated.

IBM has the patent leadership

for the 19th consecutive year.

Hundreds of patents donated.

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IBM Systems and Technology Group

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© 2012 IBM Corporation3

IBM Research Worldwide

YorktownYorktown

BeijingBeijing

RüschlikonRüschlikon

AlmadenAlmaden

DelhiDelhi

AustinAustin

HaifaHaifa

TokyoTokyo

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Storage Class Memory (SCM) Phase-Change Non-volatile Memory:

Drastic reduction in cost/GB by development of novel low cost materials (e.g. Germanium-Antimony-Telluride chips)

Joint research of IBM, Macronix & Qimonda Compared to RAM

Non-volatile

small % of DRAM cost Compared to HDD

No moving parts => High reliability

Significantly higher performance (50-1000x)

Much lower power consumption

Small form factor

Small premium in cost Compared to Flash memory

>500 times faster

>10000 times more endurance

Half the power consumption

Extreme density – PCM cell is nanotechnology: 3nm-by-20nm in size

100nm

10nm GeSb layer

Pt (for XSEM)

SiO2

TiN TiN

SiOx

5nm

SiOx

3nm GeSb layer

SiO2

First usable chip: 2011, enterprise systems: 2012/2013, complete disk replacement: 2020?

IBM Research

© 2012 IBM Corporation 99

Atomic Scale Magnetism

Magnetic anisotropy determines whether an atom’s magnetic orientation is stable over time.

Previous measurements of magnetic anisotropy have required averaging over millions of atoms.

A scanning tunneling microscope was used to measure the magnetic anisotropy of a single atom.

Expect to control and read the magnetic orientation of a single atom for storing of information.

Cu

Cu

Cu

Fe

N N

CNBC video

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Racetrack Digital Storage• Data stored in magnetic domain walls

• Billions of nanowires used on silicon chip

• 100 times more storage than on disk or flash

• Much faster than existing storage

Read and write in a nanosecond

• Introduction in 4-6 years

Stuart Parkin, inventor of GMR read heads.

Nobel price for GMR for Peter Gruenberg (D) and Albert Fert (F) 2007.

11 © 2012 IBM Corporation11

Electric vehicles in a distributed and integrated market using sustainable energy and open networks

Source: SonntagsZeitung25 October 2009

Neue Batterie Technologien im Vormarsch

12 © 2012 IBM Corporation12

Electric vehicles in a distributed and integrated market using sustainable energy and open networks

Batterie Gewichtsunterschiede

© 2012 IBM Corporation

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Fully Homomorphic Encryption

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Fully homomorphic encryption is a privacy enabling technology

Allows encrypted user data to be processed without the server knowing the content

Results returned to authorized user for decryption

Privacy-enhanced cloud services

Craig Gentry, a 35-year-old IBM researcher, solved this 30-year cryptographic problem

2010 ACM Distinguished Dissertation Award2010 Best Paper Award – IACR Crypto2010 Privacy Enhancing Technology Award2009 Privacy Innovation Award from the Intl.

Association of Privacy Professionals

IBM Research - Zurich

[email protected] © 2012 IBM Corporation16

Nanotechnology – Everywhere

Scratch resistive Lacquer

Laser Etching

Self-cleaning paints and Textiles

Regenerative Medicine

Photovoltaics

Filtration und purification

Nano-Pore

DNA

DNA Sequencing

IBM SYMPOSIUM


Worlds Smallest 3D Map• Achievement of Rüschlikon Lab in April 2010

• World Image in 3D in 22x11 micrometers

• Created in 2 minutes, 23 seconds

• on polymer and molecular glas

• 1000 of these 3D images on one grain of salt

3D video

Potential future nano-transistor- 50 nm thin- no leak- much less power needed

© 2012 IBM Corporation 18

New Nano-Technology Researchcenter

IBM Rüschlikon and ETH Zürich

1000 m2 cleanroom facilities

“Noise-free” laboratories

$30 million in equipment

Opened in May 2011Binning Rohrer Nanotechnology Center


IBM Research

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IBM Jeopardy Challenge

video

• Jeopardy Quizshow in the US

• Capability to answer questions

in natural language

• 4 years research project

• Human contestants were the

two top Jeopardy winners

----

• 90 P570 systems

• DeepQA with 2880 processors

• 16 TB of memory

• No Internet connection allowed

• 200 mio pages scanned in

• Price money:

Winner: $1 mio, 2nd: $300K, 3rd: $200

Contestants give 50%, IBM 100% to charity

Potential Real Life Usage:• Medical diagnostic assistance• Helpdesk technical support• Business Intelligence• Knowledge management


How Watson Works

Unlike Internet search engines, which only point users to documents that contain answers, Watson delivers an actual answer.

Watson is not connected to the internet - like a human, it delivers its answers from the resource of data in its "brain“.

Watson uses the same buzzer used by the human contestants. When the Jeopardy! host reads the clue, Watson must "buzz in" in competition with the humans.

Watson calculates a list of possible answers, and then selects the best one based on its level of “confidence” that it is correct.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/magazine/20Computer-t.html, http://www.ibm.com/watson

11:15

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/magazine/20Computer-t.html

http://www.ibm.com/watson


IBM Research

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Some of the Jeopardy Questions

Bram Stoker

video


The Practical Applications of Watson

"If we can teach a computer to play Jeopardy!, what could it mean for science, finance, healthcare and business? By drastically advancing the field of automatic question answering, the Watson project's ultimate success will be measured by what it means for society."

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/magazine/20Computer-t.html

Medicine: The computer could diagnose rare diseases based on a particular set of symptoms. The computer could hold every medical paper ever produced, and the steps of every known medical procedure.

Enterprise: Knowledge Management and Business Intelligence

Customer support (Helpdesk): After being programmed with every possible customer care issue, the computer could serve as a virtual call center, providing verbal answers to customers in real time.

Instead of "Google it", it will be "ask Watson" in the future.(Craig Rhinehart)

11:15

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/magazine/20Computer-t.html

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Nano Devices

1 Billion Transistors

Power7 chip

Workload Optimized

Systems

Data

Compute+ Natural Language+

Analytics

Deep Q&A Computers

Exascale (Datacenter-in-a-box) Massive parallelism Flexible system

optimization

1 Trillion Devices

Nano Systems (Systems-on-a-chip)

Cognitive Computing “Synapse” devices

DNA Transistor Nano Medicine

BIG/Fast Data Exa / zettabytes Milli / microseconds Unstructured Noisy

Four Technologies that Will Change the World

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Nano Devices

1Billion Transistors

Power7 chip

Workload Optimized

Systems

Data


Analytics

Deep Q&A Computers


optimization

1Trillion Devices





From Nano Devices to Nano Systems

25 © 2012 IBM Corporation

Source: Kurzweil 1999 – Moravec 1998

$100

0 B

uys:

Com

puta

tions

per

sec

ond

1900 1920 1940 1960

IE-5

IE-3

IE+0

IE+3

IE+6

IE+9

IE+12

IntegratedCircuit

DiscreteTransistor

VacuumTube

Electro-Mechanical

Mechanical

202020001980

Nanotechnology

Why IBM Invests in Nanotechnology: Accelerating Advances in Information Technology

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Medicine at the Nanoscale

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Anti-bacterial Nanoparticles

DNA TransistorDNA Transistor Fast, cost-effective method to use

genetic info in healthcare

DNA strands pass through ‘nanopore’

Electric sensor reads genetic information

Detects and destroys antibiotic-resistant bacteria

Fights infectious diseases

Biodegradable

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Nano Devices


Power7 chip

Workload Optimized

Systems

Data


Analytics

Deep Q&A Computers

Exascale (Datacenter-in-a-box) Massive

parallelism Flexible system

optimization

1Trillion Devices





From Petascale to Exascale


1 PetaFlop = 1/3 rack

Software

Phase Change Memory

CPU Silicon Photonics

3D

1 PetaFlop 72 BG/P Racks

Overall Performance = 1000X Performance / watt = 135X Performance / $ = 1000X Footprint = <2%

Referenced to one-petaflop system

The Next Ten Years

2009

Exascale ComputingA billion calculations in a billionth of a second

2019

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24- to 48-hour forecasts

1 - 2 km resolution

3 hours to 3 days lead time

Weather data coupled with analytics

Natural Disaster Prediction and Response Deep Thunder

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Nano Devices


Power7 chip

Workload Optimized

Systems

Data


Analytics

Deep Q&A Computers


optimization

1Trillion Devices





From Big Data to Big Analytics


IBM DeepQA 100s of gigabytes for Deep Analytics 3 seconds per decision

Big Data – Very Big and Very Fast

Merging real-time analytics with deep analytics

Meaning from text at record volumes and speed

Massive scale analytics with minimal code Super fast indexing of thousands of facets Optimized and integrated system

Telco Promotions100k records per second, 6 billion per day10 milliseconds per decision270 terabytes for Deep Analytics

Homeland Security600k records per second50 billion per day1-2 milliseconds per decision320 terabytes for Deep Analytics

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Nano Devices


Power7 chip

Workload Optimized

Systems

Data

Compute+ Natural

Language+ Analytics Deep Q&A

Computers


optimization

1Trillion Devices





From Programming to Systems that Learn

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Watson – a Roadmap

2007 – 2011

2011 – 2012

2012 – 2015

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Research / Demo Commercialization Future Technologies

Won Jeopardy!Voice & Image Recognition

Query & Dialogue


IBM Research

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IBM gets DARPA cognitive computing contract

• Simulate the brain's sensation, action, interaction, perception and cognition abilities• Supercomputing and nano-technology enable creation of simulated synapses• SyNAPSE project is only the first phase

Read more:

http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/business_analytics/article/cognitive_computing.html http://www.kurzweilai.nethttp://venturebeat.com/2011/08/17/ibm-cognitive-computing-chips/

• Simulation of neurons with Optogenetics• Designer viruses and optical signals may take over functions in wound/stroke patients• Mind-controlled prosthetic limbs

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45 nanometer 256 neurons

Spatial navigation Machine vision Pattern recognition Associative memory

262k programmable synapses 65k learning synapses

Cognitive ComputingFirst chips and architecture for Learning Systems

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10

100

1000

10000

100000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2020

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aflo

ps

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Supercomputing Roadmap

Source: ASCI Roadmap www.llnl.gov/asci, IBM, Supercomputer Conf., 2004Brain ops/sec: Kurzweil 1999, The Age of Spiritual Machines Moravec 1998, www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm

IBM Deep Blue®

US Dept. Of Energy ASCI

IBM BlueGene/P

IBM BlueGene/L®

2.8/5.6 GF/s4MB

5.6/11.2 GF/s1.0 GB

90/180 GF/s16 GB

2.8/5.6 TF/s512 GB

180/360 TF/s32 TB

System64 Racks, 64x32x32

Node Card32 Chips 4x4x2)

16 compute, 0-2 IO cards

Rack32 Node Cards

Compute Card

2 chips, 1x2x1Chip

2 processors

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Ray Kurzweil Predictions

Most of the predictions are based on exponential growth of technology (doubles approx. every year) 10 year iteration: 1000x, 20 year iteration: 1 mio fold

Cell phones in comparison to MIT computer (in 1965) are today 1000 times more processing power 1 mio times smaller 1 mio times cheaper 1 bio times increase in price/performance

Compute power that was 40 years ago in a building, is currently in a cell phone, will be in 25 years at the size of a red blood cell

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Emerging nanotechnology will accelerate progress of cost of solar panels and storage – fuel cells

Tipping point (cost per watt less than oil and coal) expected within 5 years

Progress on thermo-solar Doubling time for watts

from solar < 2 years We are less than 10

doublings from meeting 100% of the world’s energy needs

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2030: An intimate merger2030: An intimate merger $1,000 of computation =

1,000 times the human brain Reverse engineering of the

human brain completed Computers pass the Turing

test Nonbiological intelligence

combines the subtlety and pattern

recognition strength of human intelligence, with

the speed, memory, and knowledge sharing of machine intelligence

Nonbiological intelligence will continue to grow exponentially whereas biological intelligence is effectively fixed

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Ray Kurzweil Predictions (cont.)

2020: Computers have same processing power as humans.

2030: Brain is reverse engineered. Computers can communicate as humans and

pass Turing test. Copy of the brain/knowledge can be stored. 2040: Virtual reality will become more exciting than

reality. Human beings will be 1 mio times more

capable.For more information visit: http://www.kurzweilai.net

http://www.kurzweilai.net/

COMMON IBM Technology leadership and IT futures

Technology

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