Commodity report by ways2 capital 11 aug 2014

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NCDEX DAILY AND WEEKLY LEVELS

DALLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 19-SEPT-14 677.10 672.30 667.60 664.50 662.10 659.80 657.40 652.30 647.10

SYBEANIDR 20-OCT-14 3698 3655 3612 3583 3569 3540 3526 3482 3440

RMSEED 19-SEPT-14 3696 3656 3616 3594 3576 3552 3536 3496 3456

JEERAUNJHA 19-SEPT-14 11640 11550 11460 11420 11370 11330 11280 11190 11100

DHANIYA 19-SEPT-14 12757 125583 12409 12325 12235 11151 12061 11887 11730

CASTORSEED 19-SEPT-14 4511 4442 4373 4344 4304 4276 4235 4166 4097

WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 19-SEPT-14 705 691 677 669 663 655 649 635 621

SYBEANIDR 19-SEPT-14 4083 3920 3757 3655 3594 3493 3431 3268 3105

RMSEED 19-SEPT-14 3818 3741 3664 3614 3587 3537 3510 3411 3356

JEERAUNJHA 19-SEPT-14 11940 11750 11560 11470 11370 11280 11180 10990 10800

DHANIYA 19-SEPT-14 13763 13263 12763 12502 12263 12002 11763 11263 10763

CASTORSEED 19-SEPT-14 4664 4538 4412 4365 4286 4239 4160 4034 3908

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MCX DAILY AND WEEKLY LEVELS

DALLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

CRUDE OIL 19-AUG-14 6315 6208 6105 6039 5999 5934 5894 5789 5684

GOLD 03-OCT-14 30315 29790 29265 28930 28745 28415 28230 27705 27185

LEAD 28-AUG-14 144.55 142.20 139.85 138.45 137.50 136.10 135.20 132.80 130.45.NATURAL GAS 26-AUG-14 257.80 252.50 247.20 245.30 241.90 240.10 236.30 231.30 226.10

NICKEL 28-AUG-14 1242 1209 1175 1154 1143 1121 1110 1077 1044

SILVER 5-SEPT-14 46275 45445 44615 44090 43785 43260 42950 42120 41290

ZINC 28-AUG-14 147.40 145.25 143.10 141.70 140.90 139.50 138.80 136.6 134.50

WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 28-AUG-14 134.90 130.95 127.10 125.45 123.10 121.50 119.10 115.20 111.20

COPPER 29-AUG-14 463.70 453.30 443.10 426.50 432.70 426.20 422.50 412.30 401.90

CRUDE OIL 19-AUG-14 6385 6255 6125 6045 5995 5915 5860 5730 5598

GOLD 03-OCT-14 32305 31038 29765 29180 28495 27915 27225 25955 24685

LEAD 28-AUG-14 154.25 148.70 143.15 140.10 137.60 134.50 132.10 126.50 120.90

NATURAL GAS 26-AUG-14 281.80 268.10 254.20 248.50 240.10 234.90 226.60 212.80 199.10

NICKEL 28-AUG-14 1311 1254 1195 1165 1142 1109 1086 1030 974

SILVER 5-SEPT-14 47945 46575 45200 44385 43825 43010 42450 41075 39705

ZINC 28-AUG-14 162.85 156.10 149.25 144.75 142.45 137.90 135.65 128.85 122.10




MCX WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

1. Important News

1. US Unemployment Claims fell to 289,000 for the w/e on 1st Aug’14.

2. Utilities added 82 bcf of Natural gas into storage last week.

3. UK’s Official Bank Rate at 0.5 percent in the month of August.

4. China’s trade surplus surged to a record $47.3 billion in July.

5. German Industrial Production grew by 0.3 percent in month of June.

US Data

The US Dollar Index (DX) traded on a positive note and gained marginally around 0.1 percent in yesterday’s trade on the back of weak market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.

Further, favorable jobless claims data from the country supported an upside movement in the DX. The currency touched an intra-day high of 81.72 and closed at 81.61 on Thursday.

US Unemployment Claims declined by 14,000 to 289,000 for the week ending on 1st August 2014 as against a rise of 303,000 in the prior week

SOURCES : Commodity Insights

Indian Currency

The Indian Rupee retreated from five month low and appreciated around 0.4 percent in yesterday’s trading session. The currency appreciated on the back of selling dollars by Reserve Bank of India (RBI). It is assumed that central bank sold dollars through state run banks at 61.5-level to prevent further depreciation in the currency which was seen in the previous session.

Further, government allowing Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) of 49 percent in defense along with allowing greater investment in railway infrastructure continued with positive movement in the currency




2. Precious Metals

Spot gold prices rose on Thursday on increasing safe haven bids and gained more than half a percent amid rising tensions in Iraq and Ukraine. Prices turned positive on reports that U.S. President Barack Obama was considering air strikes and emergency relief airdrops to help 40,000 religious minorities in Iraq, who are trapped on a mountaintop after threats by Islamic militants.

On the contrary, holdings in the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, fell 2.4 tonnes to 797.65 tonnes on Wednesday.

On the MCX, gold prices gained by 0.48 percent and closed at Rs.28770/10gms.

Spot silver prices declined by half a percent in contrary to the strong trend in gold prices although US president said that they are considering air strikes on Iraq. Declining speculative interest in the metal, strength in the dollar index coupled with profit booking at higher levels led to the weakness. However, strong performance in the base metals complex cushioned sharp downside in prices. On the MCX, silver prices declined marginally by 0.2 percent in line with weakness in international markets.

Gold and silver prices to trade on a positive note on escalation of geo-political conflict between Russia and Ukraine on one hand and tensions in Iraq on the other hand. However, declining investor interest in the ETF holdings as indicated by liquidation in SPDR gold trust will exert downside pressure on prices. On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from strong international markets and rupee weakness

3. Base Metals

LME Copper prices gained 0.3 percent yesterday owing to decline in unemployment claims data from the US that pushed the average over the past month to an eight-year low, a sign the labor market continues to gain momentum in the second biggest consumer.

However, the European Central Bank signaled that it stands ready to print money and buy bonds if the euro zone slides towards deflation and warned the conflict in Ukraine poses a serious risk to the bloc's economy. Also, weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on prices. The red metal touched an intraday high of $7018/tonne before closing at $6985/tonne on Thursday. MCX Copper prices rose 0.4 percent in line with strength in international markets and closed at Rs.431.7/kg.

LME copper prices to trade lower today as investors will remain cautious ahead of Chinese inflation data due tomorrow and geopolitical tensions in Ukraine. However, sharp fall will be cushioned as China’s export growth unexpectedly accelerated in July thereby suggesting global demand will help the government achieve its 2014 economic-expansion goal of about 7.5 percent. In the Indian markets, base metals will trade on a negative note taking cues from weakness in international markets.




4. Energy

Crude oil prices traded positive on Thursday after reports the United States was considering airstrikes on advancing Islamic militants in Iraq revived concerns about supply disruptions from OPEC's No. 2 oil producer. However, White House spokesman Josh Earnest would not confirm that airstrikes were being considered. "There are no American military solutions to the problems in Iraq," he said.

On the contrary, ample global supplies were still pressuring oil prices, noting that oil supplies from Iraq had not yet been interrupted. Meanwhile, refining issues in the United States, including the four-week shut-down of a refinery in Coffey ville, Kansas, are weighing on U.S. crude, ahead of the refinery turnaround season in autumn, characterized by typically weaker demand.

On the MCX, crude prices gained by 0.5 percent taking cues from strong international markets and rupee weakness closing the session at Rs.5987/bbl. crude oil prices to trade sideways as escalating tensions in Iraq coupled with heightening Geo-political tensions between Russia and Ukraine will lift crude prices.

On the other hand, ample supplies in the US coupled with refining issue in the US affecting demand will exert downside pressure on prices.

On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade sideways following mix set of factors in the international markets while rupee weakness might lift crude prices in the domestic markets.

NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

CHANA|With prices having fallen to very low levels, and Festive season demandstarting to rise, Chana rates shot up in the Spot and Futures markets.Signs of lower rainfall activities in Central India too supported the market sentiments as traders expect that with present rates being on the lower side, further fall may be limited as demand starts picking up.

The sowing for Kharif Pulses has picked up over last few weeks and that had been preventing strong uptrend for Chana rates despite improved demand in mandis. Repeated efforts by the Govt to keep tab on hoarders mainly for essential Food items are also keeping the uptrend limited.

Higher Pulses production for 2013-14 has been keeping sentiments weak so far. As per 3rd Advanced crop estimates by Govt of India,India is likely to produce record Food grains in 2013-14 at 264.38MT. Record production in Tur(3.38MT), Chana (9.93MT) and overall Pulses at a record 19.57 MT

On International front, Australian Chana production reportedly has fallen by 23%. A fall in




Dollar vs Re has kept the import cost of Pulses from Myanmar, Australia and Canada low resulting in further weakening of market sentiments

In the first nine months of fiscal2013-14, pulses arrivals from abroad aggregated 2 MT; for the whole year, imports are projected at2.6 MT, sharply down from 3.8 MT last year, according to Commerce Ministry data.

SOYABEAN / REFI.SOYA

Refined soy oil opened on firm note with demand picking up amid limited selling. However, the prices did lose ground during the later half due to bearish international markets as rains in US moved in creating favorable conditions for the coming season crop.

Oil meal import by South Korea from India during April-July is reported at 341,548 tons compared to 325,768tons, consisting 171,572 tons of rapeseed meal, 168,562 tons of castor meal and 1,414 tons of soybean meal. Iran imported of112,275 tons compared to 363,744tons last year consisting of 35,500tons of soybean meal and 76,775tons of rapeseed meal. Thailand imported of 76,208 tons compared to 86,233 tons, consisting 73,801tons of rapeseed meal and 2,407tons of soybean meal. Vietnam imported 45,032 tons compared to49,967 tons last year consisting of17,726 tons of rapeseed meal,3,462 tons of soybean meal and23,844 tons of rice bran extraction.Taiwan imported 26,438 tons compared to 32,509 tons of last year consisting of 16,540 tons of rapeseed meal and 9,860 tons of castor meal and small quantity of 38tons of soybean meal. Europe imported 40,717 tons compared to110,134 tons of last year.

Soybean prices across mandis remained subdued on lack of interest from buyers amid slow exports of soymeal. India's oil meal exports fell43 percent in July from a month ago to 115,094 tonnes as castor meal and rice bran meal sales slumped.

As per Solvent Extractors Association of India the total export of oil meals during April-July 2014 is at721,577 tons compared to 1,038,819tons i.e. down by 31%. In July 2014export of oil meals stood at 115,094tons compared to 182,133 tons in July 2013 i.e.down by 37%. Export of soybean meal greatly reduced in last3 months due to high cost of soybean in local market lead to total disparity for soybean meal in international market. However, share of rapeseed meal has increased from 267,461 to408,410 in last 4 months.

As per the latest date released by the Ministry of Agriculture, oil seed planting have improved from previous week's 107.8 lakh hectare to 137.36,compared but lower from last years figure of 173.21 lakh hectares.

As per IMD, rain and thunder showers would occur at most places, adding support to crop sowing progress. The Monsoon deficit too has reduced significantly to 17 % as on 7th August and the worst effected Central India figures have come down to around 5%

The U.S. soybean crop is in the best hape for this time of year since 1994as mild Midwest temperatures helped boost the outlook for yields. Seventy-three percent of the U.S.soybean




crop was rated in good or excellent condition as of July 20, as per USDA. Soybean prices tumbled17 percent in the past 12 months. Alack of heat through the end of the Northern Hemisphere summer will limit threats during later stages of plant development as per several weather agencies. Bigger U.S. crops are helping to keep global food inflation in check, with the United Nations reporting a third monthly drop for prices in June

JEERA (CUMIN SEED)

Jeera found some support at the selower levels but absence of strong demand due to the ongoing rains in Gujarat and Rajasthan kept market trend sideways. Export queries are reportedly there and once skies clear up, the trading activities are set to pick up

With prices having fallen a lot, and with Export queries being there, a clearer sky could ensure markets picking up in the coming days.Strengthening of Dollar vs Re too could keep sentiments firm.

Good quality arrivals have ensured Jeera rates are fetching premium w.r.t. International markets. Low stocks in global trade and political unrest in Turkey and Syria have pushed export demand to India.India will remain the primary exporter for this commodity as of now.

Cumin seed or jeera production in India is expected to rise to 6.5-7million bags of 55 kg each in theyear 2014, from 4.5-5 million bags ayear earlier, due to an expanded area under cultivation and favorable weather conditions.

According to Spices Board of India statistics, India exported 96,500tonne of cumin seed or Jeera during April-December 2013, up from50,944 tonne exported in similar period, previous year.




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Commodity report by ways2 capital 11 aug 2014

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