Commodities, Materials, and Fuel Economy - ACT … Materials, and Fuel Economy. ... in ArcelorMittal...

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Robert DiCianni ArcelorMittal USA September 2015 Commodities, Materials, and Fuel Economy

Transcript of Commodities, Materials, and Fuel Economy - ACT … Materials, and Fuel Economy. ... in ArcelorMittal...

Page 1: Commodities, Materials, and Fuel Economy - ACT … Materials, and Fuel Economy. ... in ArcelorMittal Mines Canada to a consorti um lead POSCO and China Steel Corporation (CSC). ...

Robert DiCianniArcelorMittal USASeptember 2015

Commodities, Materials, and Fuel Economy

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Topics for Discussion

• ArcelorMittal Overview

• Steel Making raw materials issues

• Fuel economy regulations and its impact on materials selection

• Questions

9/30/20151

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The world’s leading steel and mining company

• ArcelorMittal is the world's leading steel and mining company, with around 222,000 employees in more than 60 countries. ArcelorMittal is the leader in all major global steel markets, including automotive, construction, household appliances and packaging, with leading R&D and technology, as well as sizeable captive supplies of raw materials and outstanding distribution networks.

• An industrial presence in 19 countries exposes the company to all major markets, from emerging to mature.

• ArcelorMittal values geographical breadth, product diversity and raw materials security. Around 38% of our steel is produced in the Americas, 47% in Europe and 15% in other countries such as Kazakhstan, South Africa and Ukraine.

Underpinning all our operations is a philosophy to produce safe, sustainable steel2

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Top Steel-Producing Companies (2014)

98.149.3

47.1

43.3

41.4

35.3

34.3

33.1

31.4

30.1

26.2

23.3

21.4

20.6

19.7

ArcelorMittal

NSSMC*

Hebei

Baosteel

POSCO

Shagang

Ansteel

Wuhan

JFE

Shougang

TataSteel

Shandong

Nucor

Hyundai

USS

Source: World Steel Association

* Nippon Steel and Sumitomo Metals Industries (NSSMC) merged in October 2012

(In Millions of Metric Tons Crude Steel Output)

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Geographically diversified mining assets1 On January 2, 2013 ArcelorMittal entered into an agreement to sell 15% of its stake in ArcelorMittal Mines Canada to a consortium lead POSCO and China Steel Corporation (CSC).2 Following an agreement signed off in December 2012, on February 20, 2013, Nunavut Iron Ore subscribed for new shares in Baffinland Iron Mines Corporation which diluted ArcelorMittal’s stake to 50%3. In November 2012, ArcelorMittal signed a share purchase agreement with Mrs Mashile-Nkosi providing, subject to various conditions, for the acquisition by her or her nominee of ArcelorMittal’s 50% interest in Kalagadi

Manganese.* Includes share of production not controlled by ArcelorMittal

Mining business portfolio

Key assets and projects

ValeRio TintoBHPArcelorMittalSouth Africa

Iron ore*

US Iron ore Minorca 100%

Hibbing 62.3%*Mexico Iron oreLas Truchas & Volcan 100%;

Pena 50%*

AlgeriaIron ore 2 mines

70%

Brazil Iron ore

Andrade100%New projects /

exploration

Existing mines

Canada Iron ore (Mont-Wright) 85 %1

Bosnia Iron ore

51%

Princeton 100%

South Africa Manganese

50%3

Indian Iron ore &

Steam Coal

Kazakhstan Coal

8 mines 100%

Kazakhstan Iron ore

4 mines 100%

Russian Coal2 mines98.64%

Iron ore mine

Non ferrous mine

Coal mine

Coal of Africa12.03%

Canada Iron oreBaffinland 50%2

LiberiaIron ore 85%

Ukraine Iron ore95.13%

Brazil Iron ore

Serra Azul100%

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ArcelorMittal key figures

ArcelorMittal is the world’s leading steel and mining company

2011 2012

Sales (US$ billion) 94.0 84.2

Ebitda (US$ billion) 10.1 7.08

Operating income (US$ billion) 4.9 (3.2)

Net income (US$ billion) 2.3 (3.7)

Shipments (million tonnes) 85.8 83.8

Steel production (million tonnes) 91.9 88.2

Own iron ore production (million tonnes)** 55.9 54.1

2013

79.4

6.9

1.2

(2.5)

84.3

91.2

59.7

**Own iron ore and coal production excluding strategic long-term contracts.

2014

79.4

7.2

3.0

(1.1)

85.1

93.1

63.7

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Technology leader for automotive• Key figures

– 1,300 researchers in a worldwide network of 12 laboratories– Global R&D budget of 260 million US$ in 2014 – At any time, we have around 80 new products under development– More than 30% of all research is devoted to automotive market

• Innovation is made in all fields required by automotive:– Advanced high strength steels (AHSS)– Innovative coatings– Hot stamping– Laser welded blanks (LWB)– Tubular products– Long products

• All product innovation is supported by high level process expertise• R&D programmes are underway to meet the automotive needs beyond 2017

ArcelorMittal will keep making significant efforts in R&D for innovation to meet the key challenges of the automotive industry

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Strong track record of successful integration

Arbed

Aceralia

Usinor

Aristain

UCIN

Sacilor

Usinor

Ugine

Aceralia

Arbed

Belgo

Bremen

Sidmar

Velasco

Cockerill/EkoStahl

Sibalsa

Trinidad

Sidbec

Hamburg

Hochfeld

Ruhrort

Inland

Unimetal

Jones & Laughlin

Youngstown Sheet & Tube

Bethlehem

Lukens

J&L

Republic

Acme

LTV

ISG

Alfasid

Karmet

Sidex

Novahut

Hunedoara

PHS

BH Steel

Iscor

LNM

Ispat Intl

Bethlehem

Kryvorizhstal

Belgo

CST

Arcelor Brazil

Dofasco

Weirton Steel

GeorgetownKorf Group

National Steel

Hunan Valin

Acindar

Acesita SonasidHuta Warsawa

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Coatesville

Conshohocken

Burns Harbor

Cleveland

Columbus Coatings

Riverdale

Indiana Harbor EastIndiana Harbor West

Weirton Georgetown

Mittal Steel USA Bar

I/N Tek & Kote JV

Steelton

Flat

Long

Mittal Steel –USA R&D Center

Joint Ventures

ArcelorMittal USA Locations

AM / NS Calvert

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The ArcelorM

ittal Orbit

Raw Materials Discussion

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Steelmaking Raw Material Input Costs2009-2015 Averages and August/September 2015

2009 – Jun’12 Average = SBB, Jul‘12-Current Average = Platts

All charts in $ per metric ton except for Scrap

$240$262

$392$403$416

$495

$428

$263

2009 September ’15

2015 YTD

20142013201220112010

#1 Busheling Chicago Scrap AMM ($/gross ton) Platts IODEX 62%CFR China

Metallurgical Coke SBB/Platts Australian Hard Coking Coal CRU/SBB

$56$59

$97

$135$130

$169

$147

$80

2015 YTD

201420132012201120102009 August ’15

$132$157

$195

$258

$444$473$456

$408

August ’15

2015 YTD

201420132012201120102009

$83$92$113

$147

$191

$294

$219

$145

August ’15

201420132012 2015 YTD

201120102009

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Steelmaking Raw Material Input Costs2009-2015 Averages and August 2015All charts in $ per metric ton

Source: AMM, LME, AM 3-month ask, Monthly data

Zinc: LME Aluminum: LME

Tin: LME

$1,815

$2,084$2,168

$1,941$1,965

$2,213$2,187

$1,682

2015 YTD

20102009 August ’15

2014201320122011

$14,924$16,709

$21,886$22,329$21,125

$26,128

$20,430

$13,377

2015 YTD

August ’15

201420132012201120102009

$1,743$1,777

$1,895$1,888

$2,051

$2,422

$2,199

$1,699

August ’15

2014 2015 YTD

20132012201120102009

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Global steel demand growth slows in 2015-2016

12Source: World Steel Association, Apr 2015 short range outlook

1,5661,5371,528

1,4131,395

1,300

1,1401,2181,218

1,139

1,544-6.4%-9.2%

0.5%

1.4%

1.2%

8.2%

14.0%

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

% Change Y/YASC

2015

f

2014

0.6%20

13

2012

2011

7.3%

2010

2009

2008

0.0%

2007

2006

2016

f

% Change Y/YASC

Global Apparent Steel Consumption (Finished Steel Products) million metric tons

Global ASC Growth Forecast by Region 2015 & 2016 (% Change Y/Y)

-0.5%

2015f

Global 0.5%

China

C&S America* -3.4%

CIS -7.3%

EU28 2.1%

NAFTA -0.9%

2016f

1.4%

-0.5%

3.4%

-0.3%

1.3%

2.8%

* Central and South America

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Scrap versus BOF Raw Material Steelmaking CostsJan 2009 – Aug 2015

Sources: CRU, Platts, AMM, Credit Suisse 13

$550

$500

$450

$400

$350

$300

$250

$200

$650

$600

$150

Jun

MayApr

Mar

Feb

Jan

Dec

NovOct

Sep Ju

lJu

nM

ayApr

Mar

Feb

Jan

Dec

NovOct

Sep

AugJu

l

AugJu

lJu

nM

ayApr

Mar

Feb

Jan

Dec

NovOct

Sep

AugJu

lJu

nM

ayApr

Mar

Feb

Jan

Dec

NovOct

Sep

AugJu

lJu

nM

ayApr

Mar

Feb

Jan

Dec

NovOct

Sep

AugJu

lJu

nM

ayApr

Mar

Feb

Jan

Dec

NovOct

Sep

AugJu

lJu

nM

ayApr

Mar

Feb

Jan

Aug

#1 Bushelling Chicago ($/mt)BOF Steel Raw Material Basket

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Credit Suisse BOF Raw Material Cost Model = (1.52*iron ore)+(0.71*coking coal)+(0.15*scrap)Note: Based on associated cost for raw materials bought on spot market and does not account for captive or contractual raw material supply.

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Steel mills in China are not generating profits

646 572 551 480 3990

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e

USD/MT HRB operating cost Median Mill, China

HR Band OperatingCost Median Mill…

Source: WSD (operating cost) ; June 9, 2015

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Iron Ore Market Conditions• Cliffs Natural Resources has shuttered a Canadian mine.

• MMX Sudeste Mineraca SA, in Brazil, filed for bankruptcy production in October and as of Feb has stopped operations.

• “A slide in iron ore prices is turning the screw on China's fragmented mining sector, paving the way for closures and consolidation with three-quarters of the country's mining capacity at a loss (Yahoo Reuters March 27, 2015)

• More than 60% of China’s iron ore miners will be eliminated this year (2015), said Lei Pingxi, deputy chairman of Metallurgical Mines Associates of China (MMAC),

• Chinese iron ore production capacity; estimated average cost per ton (mmt) (source: WSD)

– Cost: $150/ton & up 70m tons– Cost: $110 - $125/ton 140m tons– Cost: $95 - $110/ton 140m tons– Cost: $85 - $95/ton 100m tons– Cost: less than $80/ton 155m tons– Total 605m tons

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Fuel economy regulations and its impact on materials selection

AM/NS Calvert

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CAFÉ rules for 2025

• NHTSA CAFÉ rule = 54.5 mpg in 2025

• EPA rule = 163g/m = 54.5 mpg

• NHTSA can only rule out to 2021. Therefore, a mid term review is required in 2017 to get to 2025

• The EPA rule already goes to 2025

9/30/201517

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Technologies for fuel economy

• Turbo charging• Continuous Variable Transmissions• 10 speed transmissions• Advanced diesel• Exhaust gas recirculation• Gas direct injection• Low resistance tires• Drag reduction• Hybrid engines• Full electric powertrains

• However: Weight reduction will be required

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Development of 3rd Generation AHSS

Elon

gatio

n (%

)

Tensile Strength (MPa)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0 15001200300 900 2100

MildBH

Elon

gatio

n (%

)

600 1800

MART

© 2013 ArcelorMittal USA LLC All rights reserved in all countries21

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Properties of Al Alloys Relative to Steel

22

Mm

n

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The use of AHSS in the auto body will grow significantly over the next several years

23Source: Ducker Worldwide: 2014 Steel content Report

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The use of AHSS in the auto body will grow significantly over the next several years

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CO2 Emissions in Production Phase

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Re-cycling

• Steel is the most re-cycled material in the world• More steel is re-cycled than all other material combined• Nearly all automotive steel is recycled; • Steel’s physical properties allow products to be recycled into

any steel product without loss of quality. • Competing materials must be recycled to the same grade or a

lower-quality product (down-cycling) • There are more than 80 million tons of recycled steel available

per year that can be manufactured into new steel products.

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Global Co-Engineering Evolution

Building Co-Engineering credibility with OEM design community

ArcelorMittal Steel Solutions Evolution

2002-2006 2006-2014

Independent SolutionsArcelorMittal Body Concept

Independent, Integrated SolutionsS-in motion S-in motion PickUp

Remaining NAFTA Roadblocks• Large bandwidth vehicles• OEM design rules• Proprietary models and

performance standards• Carry-over constraints• Cost perceptions

Independent Steel Solutions

programs will not overcome these

roadblocks!

New NAFTA Focus: Co-Engineering• One-on-one projects with OEM’s• Using their CAD and FEA models• Using their performance standards• Working jointly to dispel cost

misperceptions and affect change in design rules

• Improving CAE predictive capabilities for AHSS and UHSS including Usibor

• Engineering solutions with Steel for lightweight design and crashworthiness

• Engage in pre-development and platform engineering with design, crash analysis and forming support

However, independent Steel Solutions programs must continue in order to feed new solution ideas into co-engineering programs

with customers (catalogue of solutions)

1996-2002

Consortium-Based SolutionsULSAB ULSAV-AVC FSV

2015+

One-on-OneCo-EngineeringWith Customers

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Summary

• Global growth is slowing in several industries

• Longer term impact on raw materials will still need to shake out

• Adjustments in market fundamentals should be expected

• Fuel economy regulations intensifies materials competition

• Steel Industry is confident it will succeed in materials competition

• ArcelorMittal is well positioned to help

• Questions

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