Commodities, Materials, and Fuel Economy - ACT … Materials, and Fuel Economy. ... in ArcelorMittal...
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Transcript of Commodities, Materials, and Fuel Economy - ACT … Materials, and Fuel Economy. ... in ArcelorMittal...
Robert DiCianniArcelorMittal USASeptember 2015
Commodities, Materials, and Fuel Economy
Topics for Discussion
• ArcelorMittal Overview
• Steel Making raw materials issues
• Fuel economy regulations and its impact on materials selection
• Questions
9/30/20151
The world’s leading steel and mining company
• ArcelorMittal is the world's leading steel and mining company, with around 222,000 employees in more than 60 countries. ArcelorMittal is the leader in all major global steel markets, including automotive, construction, household appliances and packaging, with leading R&D and technology, as well as sizeable captive supplies of raw materials and outstanding distribution networks.
• An industrial presence in 19 countries exposes the company to all major markets, from emerging to mature.
• ArcelorMittal values geographical breadth, product diversity and raw materials security. Around 38% of our steel is produced in the Americas, 47% in Europe and 15% in other countries such as Kazakhstan, South Africa and Ukraine.
Underpinning all our operations is a philosophy to produce safe, sustainable steel2
Top Steel-Producing Companies (2014)
98.149.3
47.1
43.3
41.4
35.3
34.3
33.1
31.4
30.1
26.2
23.3
21.4
20.6
19.7
ArcelorMittal
NSSMC*
Hebei
Baosteel
POSCO
Shagang
Ansteel
Wuhan
JFE
Shougang
TataSteel
Shandong
Nucor
Hyundai
USS
Source: World Steel Association
* Nippon Steel and Sumitomo Metals Industries (NSSMC) merged in October 2012
(In Millions of Metric Tons Crude Steel Output)
3
Geographically diversified mining assets1 On January 2, 2013 ArcelorMittal entered into an agreement to sell 15% of its stake in ArcelorMittal Mines Canada to a consortium lead POSCO and China Steel Corporation (CSC).2 Following an agreement signed off in December 2012, on February 20, 2013, Nunavut Iron Ore subscribed for new shares in Baffinland Iron Mines Corporation which diluted ArcelorMittal’s stake to 50%3. In November 2012, ArcelorMittal signed a share purchase agreement with Mrs Mashile-Nkosi providing, subject to various conditions, for the acquisition by her or her nominee of ArcelorMittal’s 50% interest in Kalagadi
Manganese.* Includes share of production not controlled by ArcelorMittal
Mining business portfolio
Key assets and projects
ValeRio TintoBHPArcelorMittalSouth Africa
Iron ore*
US Iron ore Minorca 100%
Hibbing 62.3%*Mexico Iron oreLas Truchas & Volcan 100%;
Pena 50%*
AlgeriaIron ore 2 mines
70%
Brazil Iron ore
Andrade100%New projects /
exploration
Existing mines
Canada Iron ore (Mont-Wright) 85 %1
Bosnia Iron ore
51%
Princeton 100%
South Africa Manganese
50%3
Indian Iron ore &
Steam Coal
Kazakhstan Coal
8 mines 100%
Kazakhstan Iron ore
4 mines 100%
Russian Coal2 mines98.64%
Iron ore mine
Non ferrous mine
Coal mine
Coal of Africa12.03%
Canada Iron oreBaffinland 50%2
LiberiaIron ore 85%
Ukraine Iron ore95.13%
Brazil Iron ore
Serra Azul100%
4
5
ArcelorMittal key figures
ArcelorMittal is the world’s leading steel and mining company
2011 2012
Sales (US$ billion) 94.0 84.2
Ebitda (US$ billion) 10.1 7.08
Operating income (US$ billion) 4.9 (3.2)
Net income (US$ billion) 2.3 (3.7)
Shipments (million tonnes) 85.8 83.8
Steel production (million tonnes) 91.9 88.2
Own iron ore production (million tonnes)** 55.9 54.1
2013
79.4
6.9
1.2
(2.5)
84.3
91.2
59.7
**Own iron ore and coal production excluding strategic long-term contracts.
2014
79.4
7.2
3.0
(1.1)
85.1
93.1
63.7
6
Technology leader for automotive• Key figures
– 1,300 researchers in a worldwide network of 12 laboratories– Global R&D budget of 260 million US$ in 2014 – At any time, we have around 80 new products under development– More than 30% of all research is devoted to automotive market
• Innovation is made in all fields required by automotive:– Advanced high strength steels (AHSS)– Innovative coatings– Hot stamping– Laser welded blanks (LWB)– Tubular products– Long products
• All product innovation is supported by high level process expertise• R&D programmes are underway to meet the automotive needs beyond 2017
ArcelorMittal will keep making significant efforts in R&D for innovation to meet the key challenges of the automotive industry
9/30/2015 7
Strong track record of successful integration
Arbed
Aceralia
Usinor
Aristain
UCIN
Sacilor
Usinor
Ugine
Aceralia
Arbed
Belgo
Bremen
Sidmar
Velasco
Cockerill/EkoStahl
Sibalsa
Trinidad
Sidbec
Hamburg
Hochfeld
Ruhrort
Inland
Unimetal
Jones & Laughlin
Youngstown Sheet & Tube
Bethlehem
Lukens
J&L
Republic
Acme
LTV
ISG
Alfasid
Karmet
Sidex
Novahut
Hunedoara
PHS
BH Steel
Iscor
LNM
Ispat Intl
Bethlehem
Kryvorizhstal
Belgo
CST
Arcelor Brazil
Dofasco
Weirton Steel
GeorgetownKorf Group
National Steel
Hunan Valin
Acindar
Acesita SonasidHuta Warsawa
Coatesville
Conshohocken
Burns Harbor
Cleveland
Columbus Coatings
Riverdale
Indiana Harbor EastIndiana Harbor West
Weirton Georgetown
Mittal Steel USA Bar
I/N Tek & Kote JV
Steelton
Flat
Long
Mittal Steel –USA R&D Center
Joint Ventures
ArcelorMittal USA Locations
AM / NS Calvert
The ArcelorM
ittal Orbit
Raw Materials Discussion
10
Steelmaking Raw Material Input Costs2009-2015 Averages and August/September 2015
2009 – Jun’12 Average = SBB, Jul‘12-Current Average = Platts
All charts in $ per metric ton except for Scrap
$240$262
$392$403$416
$495
$428
$263
2009 September ’15
2015 YTD
20142013201220112010
#1 Busheling Chicago Scrap AMM ($/gross ton) Platts IODEX 62%CFR China
Metallurgical Coke SBB/Platts Australian Hard Coking Coal CRU/SBB
$56$59
$97
$135$130
$169
$147
$80
2015 YTD
201420132012201120102009 August ’15
$132$157
$195
$258
$444$473$456
$408
August ’15
2015 YTD
201420132012201120102009
$83$92$113
$147
$191
$294
$219
$145
August ’15
201420132012 2015 YTD
201120102009
11
Steelmaking Raw Material Input Costs2009-2015 Averages and August 2015All charts in $ per metric ton
Source: AMM, LME, AM 3-month ask, Monthly data
Zinc: LME Aluminum: LME
Tin: LME
$1,815
$2,084$2,168
$1,941$1,965
$2,213$2,187
$1,682
2015 YTD
20102009 August ’15
2014201320122011
$14,924$16,709
$21,886$22,329$21,125
$26,128
$20,430
$13,377
2015 YTD
August ’15
201420132012201120102009
$1,743$1,777
$1,895$1,888
$2,051
$2,422
$2,199
$1,699
August ’15
2014 2015 YTD
20132012201120102009
Global steel demand growth slows in 2015-2016
12Source: World Steel Association, Apr 2015 short range outlook
1,5661,5371,528
1,4131,395
1,300
1,1401,2181,218
1,139
1,544-6.4%-9.2%
0.5%
1.4%
1.2%
8.2%
14.0%
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
% Change Y/YASC
2015
f
2014
0.6%20
13
2012
2011
7.3%
2010
2009
2008
0.0%
2007
2006
2016
f
% Change Y/YASC
Global Apparent Steel Consumption (Finished Steel Products) million metric tons
Global ASC Growth Forecast by Region 2015 & 2016 (% Change Y/Y)
-0.5%
2015f
Global 0.5%
China
C&S America* -3.4%
CIS -7.3%
EU28 2.1%
NAFTA -0.9%
2016f
1.4%
-0.5%
3.4%
-0.3%
1.3%
2.8%
* Central and South America
Scrap versus BOF Raw Material Steelmaking CostsJan 2009 – Aug 2015
Sources: CRU, Platts, AMM, Credit Suisse 13
$550
$500
$450
$400
$350
$300
$250
$200
$650
$600
$150
Jun
MayApr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
NovOct
Sep Ju
lJu
nM
ayApr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
NovOct
Sep
AugJu
l
AugJu
lJu
nM
ayApr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
NovOct
Sep
AugJu
lJu
nM
ayApr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
NovOct
Sep
AugJu
lJu
nM
ayApr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
NovOct
Sep
AugJu
lJu
nM
ayApr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
NovOct
Sep
AugJu
lJu
nM
ayApr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Aug
#1 Bushelling Chicago ($/mt)BOF Steel Raw Material Basket
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Credit Suisse BOF Raw Material Cost Model = (1.52*iron ore)+(0.71*coking coal)+(0.15*scrap)Note: Based on associated cost for raw materials bought on spot market and does not account for captive or contractual raw material supply.
Steel mills in China are not generating profits
646 572 551 480 3990
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e
USD/MT HRB operating cost Median Mill, China
HR Band OperatingCost Median Mill…
Source: WSD (operating cost) ; June 9, 2015
Iron Ore Market Conditions• Cliffs Natural Resources has shuttered a Canadian mine.
• MMX Sudeste Mineraca SA, in Brazil, filed for bankruptcy production in October and as of Feb has stopped operations.
• “A slide in iron ore prices is turning the screw on China's fragmented mining sector, paving the way for closures and consolidation with three-quarters of the country's mining capacity at a loss (Yahoo Reuters March 27, 2015)
• More than 60% of China’s iron ore miners will be eliminated this year (2015), said Lei Pingxi, deputy chairman of Metallurgical Mines Associates of China (MMAC),
• Chinese iron ore production capacity; estimated average cost per ton (mmt) (source: WSD)
– Cost: $150/ton & up 70m tons– Cost: $110 - $125/ton 140m tons– Cost: $95 - $110/ton 140m tons– Cost: $85 - $95/ton 100m tons– Cost: less than $80/ton 155m tons– Total 605m tons
15
Fuel economy regulations and its impact on materials selection
AM/NS Calvert
CAFÉ rules for 2025
• NHTSA CAFÉ rule = 54.5 mpg in 2025
• EPA rule = 163g/m = 54.5 mpg
• NHTSA can only rule out to 2021. Therefore, a mid term review is required in 2017 to get to 2025
• The EPA rule already goes to 2025
9/30/201517
Technologies for fuel economy
• Turbo charging• Continuous Variable Transmissions• 10 speed transmissions• Advanced diesel• Exhaust gas recirculation• Gas direct injection• Low resistance tires• Drag reduction• Hybrid engines• Full electric powertrains
• However: Weight reduction will be required
18
19
9/30/201520
Development of 3rd Generation AHSS
Elon
gatio
n (%
)
Tensile Strength (MPa)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 15001200300 900 2100
MildBH
Elon
gatio
n (%
)
600 1800
MART
© 2013 ArcelorMittal USA LLC All rights reserved in all countries21
Properties of Al Alloys Relative to Steel
22
Mm
n
The use of AHSS in the auto body will grow significantly over the next several years
23Source: Ducker Worldwide: 2014 Steel content Report
The use of AHSS in the auto body will grow significantly over the next several years
24
25
CO2 Emissions in Production Phase
26
Re-cycling
• Steel is the most re-cycled material in the world• More steel is re-cycled than all other material combined• Nearly all automotive steel is recycled; • Steel’s physical properties allow products to be recycled into
any steel product without loss of quality. • Competing materials must be recycled to the same grade or a
lower-quality product (down-cycling) • There are more than 80 million tons of recycled steel available
per year that can be manufactured into new steel products.
27
28
Global Co-Engineering Evolution
Building Co-Engineering credibility with OEM design community
ArcelorMittal Steel Solutions Evolution
2002-2006 2006-2014
Independent SolutionsArcelorMittal Body Concept
Independent, Integrated SolutionsS-in motion S-in motion PickUp
Remaining NAFTA Roadblocks• Large bandwidth vehicles• OEM design rules• Proprietary models and
performance standards• Carry-over constraints• Cost perceptions
Independent Steel Solutions
programs will not overcome these
roadblocks!
New NAFTA Focus: Co-Engineering• One-on-one projects with OEM’s• Using their CAD and FEA models• Using their performance standards• Working jointly to dispel cost
misperceptions and affect change in design rules
• Improving CAE predictive capabilities for AHSS and UHSS including Usibor
• Engineering solutions with Steel for lightweight design and crashworthiness
• Engage in pre-development and platform engineering with design, crash analysis and forming support
However, independent Steel Solutions programs must continue in order to feed new solution ideas into co-engineering programs
with customers (catalogue of solutions)
1996-2002
Consortium-Based SolutionsULSAB ULSAV-AVC FSV
2015+
One-on-OneCo-EngineeringWith Customers
Summary
• Global growth is slowing in several industries
• Longer term impact on raw materials will still need to shake out
• Adjustments in market fundamentals should be expected
• Fuel economy regulations intensifies materials competition
• Steel Industry is confident it will succeed in materials competition
• ArcelorMittal is well positioned to help
• Questions
29