ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE

COCONUT AND TEA SECTORS IN SRI LANKA

 

presented by

Dr Janaka Ratnasiri

Chairman, National Committee of IGBP

Principal Investigator, AIACC Project, AS 12

• Coconut Research Institute

• Tea Research Institute

• Meteorology Department

• Natural Resources Management Services

Managed by

Sri Lanka Association for the Advancement of Science

Participating Organizations

STUDY TEAM

SLAASAtmos. PhysicistDr Janaka Ratnasiri (PI)

IRICP, Columbia Univ.Climate Application Scientist

Dr Lareef Zubair

Meteorology Dept.MeteorologistDr Senaka Basnayake

Coconut Res. InstituteAgri. EconomistDr Neil Fernando

Coconut Res. InstitutePr. BiometricianDr Sarath Peiris

Coconut Res. InstitutePlant PhysiologistDr Sanathanie Ranasinghe

Tea Research InstituteAgri. EconomistMs Asoka Jayakody

Tea Research InstituteSenior AgronomistDr M A Wijeratne

Tea Research InstitutePlant PhysiologistDr. A.Anadacoomaraswamy

INTRODUCTION

• The coconut and tea sectors play a vital role in the economies o f many Asian countries.

• In Sri Lanka, these two sectors contribute 15% of the total expo rt revenue to the country.

• A significant portion of the population (more than one million p eople or 5% of the population) is directly employed in these plantations.

• Being rain -fed plantation crops, the production of coconut and tea is great ly influenced by the weather.

• The variations in temperature and rainfall pattern have been ide ntified as the most influential climatic factors affecting productivity.

• Dry weather conditions set severe limitations to growth and yiel d in both these crops.

• With the anticipated climate change, both these crops will be su bject to severe stress resulting in low yields.

• The country ’s economy as well as the earnings of those who are dependent on these plantations and associated industries, will be greatly affected.

Tea Plantations in Sri Lanka

ITEM QUANTITY UNIT

TOTAL EXTENT 180,000 ha

EXTENT AS A PC OF TOTAL LAND 2.77 %

REPLANTING 1,085 ha

NEW PLANTING 263 ha

TOTAL PRODUCTION 306,000 tonnes

High Grown 84,000 tonnes

Medium Grown 56,000 tonnes

Low Grown 166,000 tonnes

PRODUCTION EXPORTED 288,000 tonnes

DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION 18,000 tonnes

COST OF PRODUCTION 110 Rs/kg

EXPORT EARNINGS 700,000,000 US$

VALUE ADDED AS A PC OF GDP 2.6 %

Global Tea Production 2001

Country Extent

kha

% Production

kt

%

China 1,141 44 695 23

India 509 19 854 28

Sri Lanka 189 7 295 10

Kenya 132 5 294 10

Indonesia 161 6 169 6

Other 487 19 705 23

Total 2,619 100 3,012 100

COCONUT PLANTATIONS

ITEM QUANTITY Units

TOTAL EXTENT 439,000 ha

EXTENT AS A PC OF TOTAL LAND 6.75 %

REPLANTING 714 ha

NEW PLANTING 834 ha

TOTAL NUT PRODUCTION 3,055 million

DESSICATED COCONUT 89,000 tonnes

COCONUT OIL 44,000 tonnes

COPRA 14,500 tonnes

FRESH NUTS EXPORTED 29 million

DOMESTIC NUT CONSUMPTION 1,832 million

COST OF PRODUCTION 3.27 Rs/nut

EXPORT EARNINGS 121,000,000 US$

VALUE ADDED AS A PC OF GDP 2.2 %

Global Coconut Production 2001

Country Extent kha % Production

M.nuts%

Indonesia 3,691 31 15,160 27

Philippines 3,120 26 13,208 24

India 1,840 16 12,597 23

Sri Lanka 442 4 2,279 4

Thailand 326 3 1,117 2

Vietnam 165 1 936 2

Malaysia 226 2 563 1

Others 2,035 17 9,977 17

Total 11,845 100 55,837 100

Factors affecting crops

? According to previousclimatologicalstudies;ØRainfallØTemperatureØEvapo-transpirationØRelative HumidityØSolar Radiation

are identified as the major climate variables that influence the yield when other external factors (fertility, management, pest & diseases) are non-limiting

OBJECTIVES

Collect baseline data on the following:- climate in tea and coconut growing

areas over several past decades- productivity of tea and coconut over

several past decades separately for different agro-climatic zones

- socio economic information both from documented sources and primary sources.

OBJECTIVES Contd.

• Project the climate change scenarios in the coconut and tea growing areas based on the global circulation model results down-scaled to Sri Lanka. 

• Assess the impacts of climate change on productivity of tea and coconut and socio economic status of the people within the plantation sector.

• Identify adaptation options and assess their feasibility of implementation

OBJECTIVES contd.

• Build capacity of natural and social scientists engaged in plantation research for undertaking assessment studies incorporating impacts, vulnerability and adaptation.

 • Train scientists to prepare proposals for seeking funds

in meeting costs of adaptation to adverse effects of climate change as provided in Article 4 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 1992).

 

WORK PLAN OF STUDY

• The first stage will cover collection of baseline data of climatic parameters and production data on coconut and tea, their analysis and constructing future scenarios for temperature and precipitation changes, and future variations in productivity, economy, unemployment and national revenue

WORK PLAN Contd.

• The second stage will cover assessment of impacts, identification and assessment of adaptation measures using crop growth models. These models need initial calibration to suit local conditions and validated for current climate conditions. Thereafter these have to be tested with the climate change scenarios developed.

Work Plan Contd.

• Integrated Assessment Modelling to be carried out in two stages

– Building the basic model for climate scenario development and down scaling GCM results

– Incorporating crop models and socio -economic models for impact and adaptation assessments

Workplan contd.

• In the third stage, the impacts on the markets and trade due to changes in the productivity and the resulting effects on the planters, the labour force and the economy in general will be assessed.

WORKPLAN Contd.

• In the fourth stage, adaptation strategies will be evaluated that will mitigate the adverse impacts and those which are most cost effective will be disseminated among planters. The project will also include training of scientists for undertaking adaptive measures and further research on assessments

Year 1 Work Plan

a)    Collect and analyze climatic datab)   Collect and analyze production and socio-economic datac)   Correlate production data with climate parametersd)   Establish climate change scenarios applicable to Sri Lankae)  Provide Special Training Workshop on Integrated Assessment Modelling

Activity Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

a

b

c

d

e

1. Project changes in production under no climate change and climate change scenarios

2.  Calibrate and validate crop model selected3.  Apply the model for climate scenarios developed4.  Determine new cropping calendar for coconut 5.  Provide training by a visiting scientist. 6.  Provide training opportunity to a few scientists at IRICP

Activity Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

1

2

3

4

5

6

1. Assess impacts on production and socio-economic factors.2.   Identify adaptation strategies and evaluate their cost effectiveness.3.   Training of scientists to undertake future research on climate change

reports. 4.   Attend meetings where the findings of the assessments were discussed.5.   Formulate a set of recommendations for the use of policy makers and

stake-holders. 6.   Prepare the final project report for submission to START.

Activity Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

1

2

3

4

5

6

Adaptation Options for Coconut

• Introduce irrigation during droughts

• Contour drains to prevent surface run -offs and facilitate infiltration

• Mulching the manure circle and apply ground cover

• Organic manuring to increase water holding capacity

• Removal of unproductive lower fronds during droughts

• Develop drought resistant varieties

• Use anti-transpirants to reduce water loss

Adaptation Options for Tea

• Selection of drought resistant varieties (generally low yielding)

• Introduce agronomical practices such as shade crops

• Soil conservation practices such as mulching and cover crops

• Chemical spraying to prevent trans -evaporation

• Introduce intercropping with other crops such as coconut and rubber

• Introduce irrigation during drought periods

EXPECTED OUTPUT

• Report on the climate change scenarios applicable to Sri Lanka• Report outlining the baseline scenarios on the productivity of t ea and

coconut and socio- .economic status

• Report giving the impact of climate change on productivity of te a and coconut and the extent to which the socio economics of people directly involved in the each sectors in particular and the coun try in .general are affected

• Report outlining the feasible options for adapting to climate ch , ange including their cost effectiveness and their acceptance by polic y

.makers and stake holders including planters and traders

• A team of plantation scientists trained in the integrated assess ment on climate change and in the preparation of proposals for adaptive

.measures

• A set of publications in peer- reviewed journals reporting the findings of .the project

Stake Holder Activity

• Members of Planters’ Associations, Exporters, Trade and Officials from the Ministry of Plantations were invited for the Inception Seminar held in April 2002

• A presentation was made at a meeting held in May 2002 for the Planters to discuss future developments in the industry

• All stake holders were invited for the inauguration of the IAM workshop held in December, 2002

In general, the response has been rather poor, except in the second

Linking to National Communication

• Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources is responsible for the 2nd NC preparation

• Ministry has launched a programme under GEF Enabling Activities Phase II, to support short term studies on impacts and vulnerability assessment

• PI of the current project is a member of the Steering Committee of this programme.

• Ministry has endorsed the current project as contributing to its effort to collect information for the preparation of the 2nd NC of Sri Lanka

THANK YOU