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MitigationMitigation

Reduce the Impact

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sThe Wider View

• “Disasters, particularly catastrophic ones, can do more than impose deaths, injuries, and dollar losses. They can also redirect the character of social institutions, result in permanent new and costly regulations for future generations, alter ecosystems, and even disturb the stability of political regimes. Costs like these rarely, if ever, are counted as part of disaster impacts.”

Dennis Mileti

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sWhy??

• “Mitigate and where you cannot mitigate, prepare, respond, and recover.”

• Cycle of Emergency Management

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sCosts

• Before 1987, there was only one disaster that exceeded $1 billion dollars

• 1960s: $40 billion

• 1970s: $70 billion

• 1980s: $120 billion

• 1990s: $608 billion

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sLow Priority

• “I will never lose my job for failing to do mitigation, but I could lose my job if I mess up a response.”

State Director of Emergency Management

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sNon-traditional Players

• Land-use planners,• Construction and building officials• Business owners,• Insurance Companies• Community Leaders• Politicians

“The U.S. political system tends to focus on short-term rewards.” (Haddow)

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sDefinition

• “A sustained action to reduce or eliminate risk to people and property from hazards and their effects.”

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sHazard vs. Risk. vs. Disaster

• Source of danger that may or may not lead to an emergency or disaster

• Susceptibility to death, injury, damage, destruction, disruption, stoppage, and so forth

• Event that demands substantial crisis response requiring the use of government powers and resources beyond the scope of one line agency

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“Understanding the risk posed by identified hazards is the basis for preparedness planning and mitigation actions.” FEMA

“All emergency management activities are predicated on the identification and assessment of hazards and risks.” FEMA

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sFederal Encouragement

• Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 (DMA2000)

• Requires that states maintain mitigation plans as a prerequisite for certain federal mitigation funding and disaster assistance programs

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sMitigation Programs

• Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP)

• Flood Mitigation Assistance Program (FMA)

• Pre-Disaster Mitigation Program (PDM)

• Repetitive Flood Claims Grant Program (RFC)

• Severe Repetitive Loss Program (SRL)

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sMitigation Steps

(Risk Assessment)

1. Community Profile

2. Identified Assets

3. Hazards Analysis

4. Vulnerability Analysis

5. Capabilities Assessment

6. Mitigation Strategies

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s1) Community Profile

• History• Environmental Characteristics

– Topography– Geology– Hydrology– Climate– Soils

• Government/Business Organization• Demographics

– Past Growth Trends/Future Forecasts• Socio-economic

– Income– Education– Employment

• Current goals/mission

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s2) Identified Assets

• Inventory– Critical Facilities– Essential Facilities– Residential Facilities– Commercial Facilities– Public/Business Infrastructure

• Assess Value

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sAdditional Private Assets

• Market share

• Popular product

• Important customer

• Important vendor

• Critical files

Scott-Martinet

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s3) Hazards Analysis

• Earthquake• Extreme Heat• Tornado• Flood• Severe

Thunderstorm• Winter Storm• Sinkholes• Dam Failure• Wildfire

• Nuclear• Hazardous Material• Terrorism• Warfare• Pandemic Flu• Biological• Chemical• Radiological

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sHazards Analysis Detail

• Hazard Identification

• Historical Statistics

• Future Probable Risk

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sProbable Risk (Frequency)

• Highly likely (Near 100% probability in the next year)

• Likely (Between 10% and 100% probability in the next year, or at least one chance in the next 10 years)

• Possible (Between 1% and 10% probability in the next year, or at least one chance in the next 100 years)

• Unlikely (Less than 1% probability in the next 100 years)

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sHazards Analysis Detail

• Hazard Identification• Historical Statistics• Future Probable Risk

• Future Probable Warning Time

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sWarning Time

• Minimal: No warning time or little preparation time

• 6-12 hours

• 12-24 hours

• 24+ hours

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sHazards Analysis Detail

• Hazard Identification• Historical Statistics• Future Probable Risk• Future Probable Warning Time

• Future Probable Severity

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sProbable Severity

Catastrophic Critical Limited Negligible

Multiple Deaths Injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability

Injuries and/or illnesses do not result in permanent disability

Injuries and/or illnesses are treatable with first aid

Complete shutdown of facilities for 30 days or more

Complete shutdown of critical facilities for at least 2 weeks

Complete shutdown of critical facilities for more than 1 week

Shutdown of critical facilities and services for 24 hours or less

More than 50% of property is severely damaged

More than 25% of property is severely damaged

More than 10% of property is severely damaged

Less than 10% of property is severely damaged

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sHazards Analysis Detail

• Hazard Identification• Historical Statistics• Future Probable Risk• Future Probable Warning Time• Future Probable Severity

• Impact on Community

Summarized on Hazard Profile Worksheet

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s4) Vulnerability Analysis

A. Identified Assets Summary

B. Hazards’ Analysis Summary

C. Vulnerability Analysis

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s4a) Summarize Identified

Assets• Inventory

– Critical Facilities– Essential Facilities– Residential Facilities– Commercial Facilities– Public/Business Infrastructure

• Assess Value

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sChart Summary

Critical Facilities (areas)

Total Replacement Costs

Number of People

City Hall $500,000 20

Police Department

$1 million 50

Fire Department

$1 million 50

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sVulnerability Analysis

A. Identified Assets Summary

B. Hazards’ Analysis Summary

C. Vulnerability Analysis

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s4b) Hazards Analysis

SummaryHazard Freq Warn.

TimeSev. Special

NotesRisk Priority

Drought Highly Likely

Likely

Possible

Unlikely

Min.

6-12

12-24

24+

Catastrophic

Critical

Limited

Negligible

Water source dependent on two wells

3

Floods Highly Likely

Likely

Possible

Unlikely

Min.

6-12

12-24

24+

Catastrophic

Critical

Limited

Negligible

Floodplains present throughout community.

Flash flooding likely

2

Tornado Highly Likely

Likely

Possible

Unlikely

Min.

6-12

12-24

24+

Catastrophic

Critical

Limited

Negligible

Sig. regional historical record.

Small concentration of infrastructure

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sVulnerability Analysis

A. Identified Assets Summary

B. Hazards’ Analysis Summary

C. Vulnerability Analysis

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s4c) Vulnerability Analysis

• “May show estimated dollar lost each day when operations are completely down, costs of overtime to re-establish functions, and cost-benefit analyses of mitigating or controlling particular hazards.”

Scott-Martinet p. 37

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sCapabilities Assessment

• Current capabilities– Operationally– Logistically– Planning– Training/Exercises

• Current mitigation position– Strategic Plan– Codes/Regulations

• Mitigation Activities accomplished

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sMitigation Strategies

1. Prevention2. Property Protection

– Acquisition– Relocation– Rebuilding– Floodproofing

3. Public Education and Awareness4. Natural resource protection5. Critical facilities protection6. Structural projects

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sMitigation Strategies

• Goals– Reduce vulnerability to drought

• Objectives– S.M.A.R.T.

• Tasks

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sPrivate Impact Analysis

• Health and safety of persons in the affected area

• Health and safety of persons responding to the incident– Continuity of operations– Property, facilities, and infrastructure– Delivery of services

• The environment– Economic and financial conditions– Regulatory and contractual obligations– Reputation of or confidence in the entity

Scott-Martinet

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sBenefit-Costs Analysis