Climate Change - Veolia Institute · Temperature Trends in the Caribbean • Temperatures in the...
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Climate Climate 20502050Technology and Policy Solutions
October 24 – 26 ,2007Palais des congrés de Montreal
Climate Change
What makes the Caribbean and Small Island Developing States Vulnerable
byKenrick R. Leslie, Ph.D
The Caribbean Community The Caribbean Community Climate Change CentreClimate Change Centre
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What makes the Caribbean Vulnerable to Climate Change?
It consists of 28 insular and coastal states and ten territories bordering the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.The estimated population is 40 million people of which some 28 million live in coastal cities, towns and villages and 38% of the population can be classified as poor.Economic activities are frequently dominated by specialized agriculture such as sugar and/or tourism.It is already experiencing the early Impacts of current Climate Variability and Climate Change.
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Temperature Trends in the Caribbean
• Temperatures in the Caribbean region are changing in a manner consistent with the observed variations at global and northern hemisphere levels.
• Temperature records have shown an increase in the last century, with the 1990s being the warmest decade since the beginning of the 20th century. Variations of land surface
temperature for the Caribbean
Period1973 to 2000
BARBADOS TRINIDAD
SAINT LUCIA
DOMINICA
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
Period1973 to 2000
BARBADOS TRINIDAD
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
Saint Lucia
Dominica
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NORTH ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA TEMPERATURES (September 29, 2007)
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GLOBAL SEA TEMPERATURES (October 14 - 20, 2007)
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OBSERVED CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
• Lower diurnal temperature variation and much warmer nights
• More prevalent coral bleaching
• Hurricanes developing at lower latitudes and becoming more intense in shorter periods of time
• More frequent outbreaks of pest infestation
• More extreme droughts and rainfall
• More incidences of extreme temperature-related stress events to humans, animals, and plants
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CONSEQUENCES OF LOWER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION AND WARMER
NIGHTS
• Need for increased use of energy derived from imported fossil fuel
• Increased loss of water through higher evaporation rates
• Higher demand of limited water resources for agricultural irrigation
• Less available water for the recharging of aquifers
• Increased prevalence of vector-borne diseases
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IMPACT OF WARMER SEA TEMPERATURE
More frequent episodes of Coral Bleaching since the 1980s
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Another Impact of Warmer Sea Temperature
Hurricanes developing at lower latitudes and becoming more intense in a shorter period of time
GrenadaCozumel
Formed 2 Sept. 2004 Ivan developed near 8oN
Formed 15 Oct. 2004 Wilma went from Depression to Cat 5 hurricane in less than 24 hrs.
13 Aug. 2007 Cat 5 Hurricane Dean approaching the Yucatan Peninsula
Aug. 31 2007 Cat 5 Hurricane Felix approaching Central America
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The Impact of more intense hurricanes &
Sea Level Rise
MSL 1997 MSL 1997
1997 2020
Response Strategies:•Retreat•Accommodation•Protection
Wave Action
Storm Surge Wave Action
Storm Surge MSL 2020
Higher and stronger storm surge
More severe damageto mangrove & corals
Increase in coastaldamage and beach erosion
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Impact of increases in Drought and Higher Temperatures on biodiversity and land degradation
Pristine pine forest Forest after pine beetle infestation
Land degradation and soil erosion resulting from fire fueled by deadTrees and drought
Loss of habitat for a numberof species
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Increase incidences of unusually heavy rainfall
One of many flood events in Georgetown, Guyana (2005, 2006 and 2007)
August 31, 2007 Belize City, Belize Tropical wave dumped over 11 inches of rain in less than 9 hours
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Impact of 1oC further rise in sea temperature on Artisan and Commercial Fishing
Yellow tunaHabitat becomes lessfavourable
+1+1°°CC
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Dolphin fish Habitat becomes lessfavourable
+1+1°°CC
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Green parrot fish
Habitat becomes lessfavourable
+1+1°°CC
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Impact OF 2oC rise on AgriculturePreliminary studies on the impact on the staples -corn, beans and rice for 2oC warmer and +/- 20% change in precipitation
Crop Scenario Name
Season Length (days)
Temperature Change (oC)
% Change in
precipitation
Yield (kg/ha)
% change in Yield
Dry beans C3
Baseline Carib A
87 85 85
0 +2 +2
0 +20 -20
1353.6 1163.7 1092.6
-14% -19%
Rice C3
Baseline Carib A
124 113 113
0 +2 +2
0 +20 -20
3355.5 3014.4 2887.5
-10% -14%
Maize C4
Baseline Carib A
104 97 97
0 +2 +2
0 +20 -20
4510.6 3736.6 3759.4
-22% -17%
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Consequences of a Warmer Climate in the Caribbean
• Will pose significant, and in some cases insurmountable challenges to the region’s Economic and Social Vulnerability
• Expected Areas of Negative Impact – Agriculture/Fisheries
• Food security threat
– Tourism• Economic sustainability
– Health• Increase in vector-borne diseases and other heat related
diseases
– Water
– Human Settlements
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ADAPTATION AN IMPERATIVE
• The IPCC, the world premier scientific advisory body on climate change concluded that Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and low lying coastal States of the Caribbean are among the most vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change.
• The presentation highlights some of the evidence leading to the IPCC conclusion.
• For the Caribbean basin it is, therefore, recognized that adaptation is an imperative for coping with the projected impacts associated with current and future climatic conditions.
• Appropriate Adaptation Policies in all sectors will be required for addressing:– Sea Level Rise– Water resources– Renewable energy– Agriculture– Land use
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International Support Required • The International Community should commit to:
– taking aggressive actions to reduce GHG emissions to ensure a high success of achieving the global temperature rise of no more than 2oC. This means more mitigation;
– the promotion of• prudent use of fossil fuel;• renewable energy investments;• Increase use of renewable forms of energy as a significant
portion of the energy budget;
– providing support of the development and exploitation of Caribbean indigenous sources of energy such as:
– Wind, solar, biomass, hydro, geothermal and oceanic
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International Support Required
Support fully the implementation of the Nairobi Plan of Action noting the need to adequately address the special circumstances of the Caribbean region:
Being among the world’s most vulnerable region to the envisaged impacts of climate change; The countries low capacity to adapt to the negative impacts of climate change, since the costs for adaptation will be high relative to GDP.
Immediate support for implementation of no regrets adaptation options as recommended in the Stern Report.Mobilization of the Adaptation Funds (UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol)
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THANK YOU
For further information please contact us at:For further information please contact us at:
THE CARIBBEAN COMMUNITYTHE CARIBBEAN COMMUNITYCLIMATE CHANGE CENTRECLIMATE CHANGE CENTRE22ndnd Floor, Lawrence Nicholas Bldg.Floor, Lawrence Nicholas Bldg.P.O. Box 563P.O. Box 563Bliss Parade,Bliss Parade,Belmopan City, BelizeBelmopan City, BelizeTel: +501Tel: +501--822822--1094/11041094/1104Fax: +501Fax: +501--822822--13651365Website: Website: www.caribbeanclimate.bzwww.caribbeanclimate.bz