Climate Change: Sea Level Rise Herman.Sievering@colorado
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Transcript of Climate Change: Sea Level Rise Herman.Sievering@colorado
Climate Change: Sea Level Rise
[email protected] Associate Scientist, Global Monitoring Div. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin.
and
Environmental Science & Statistics Professor University of Colorado
Intergovt. Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Member, 2007 Working Group I, The Science Basis Reviewer: IPCC 2013/2014 WGI & WGIII reports
CO2 air concentrations over last 60 years, parts per million
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CO2 and Methane (CH4) concentrations: past 400,000 years
Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions to the Atmosphere (IPCC)
Global Warming → Climate Change → Sea Level Rise (SLR)
Some “bottom line” SLR bullets:
*SLR likely to displace 5 to 12 million people by 2050
*60 to 240 million, perhaps more, displaced by 2100
*9% of Florida lost with 1-meter sea level rise
When might 1-meter (3’ 4”) SLR occur??
The BIG Three
*Heating & Expansion of Oceans is, now, causing about one-half (~½) of SLR per year
*Glacier & Arctic Region melt: ~1/4th of SLR per year **GreenlandGreenland & Antarctic Melt: ~~1/5th of SLR per year Greenland ice melt is 480% greater than in early 1990s Key Study: Science, 30 Nov 2012, pg. 1138
SLR: How much? How soon? - Slow, Insidious** impact
Mean Global Sea Level Rise (SLR), ft. & in.
Year Best Estimate
2010 8” - measured; rapid rate
2030 1’ 1”
2050 1’ 9” ≈ equal to ½ meter
2100 3’ 4” ≈ equal to 1 meter
Range of 2100 Global Mean SLR: 2’ to 4’ __________________
**eg: 1’ SLR “payback to us” even if coal & oil emissions stop now!
Global Warming → Climate Change → Sea Level Rise (SLR)
Some “bottom line” bullets: if 1-meter SLR by 2100
*SLR likely to displace 5 to 12 million people by 2050
*60 to 240 million people may be displaced by 2100
About 1 million homes lost in Florida - NOT counting the 65% of Florida’s <1m-above-sea-level land set for development -- Insurance Industry Estimate Needed: a present-day SLR impact; not just 2050/2100 NYC Case Study: Super-storm Sandy
Super-storm Sandy
1’ water depth due to human-caused SLR (as of 2012)
New York City (NYC) Case Study Super-storm Sandy: US Climate Change Teaching Moment
Sea Level Rise: 1’ of the NYC 11’ surge 11’ surge is nearly double previous 300 yr. record surge
By 2100, NYC’s SLR will be more than 1 meter 1 meter - greater than the 2100 global mean SLR of 2’ to 4’
3’ to 5’ SLR for NYC by 2100
Regional Sea Level Rise: 2091-2100 mean vs 1900, IPCC
Purple = 4’ Dark Brown = 3.5’ Red = 3’ Yellow = 2’
Super-storm Sandy and Human-caused Climate Change 80-90% of 1’ NYC SLR (since 1900) is due to we humans Part of 5°F above mean ocean Temp in Sandy-birth-area due to us
Energy uptake along warmer ocean waters path
YES, there was a human contribution to the damage caused by super-storm Sandy! Impossible to say how much.
Some Solutions after Break
Solutions: Government Driven Renewable Energy: Govt. credits/subsidies needed - Renewables subsidy <50 B-$s/yr; coal, oil & gas subsidies >600 B-$s/yr
Wind: cost less than coal; “30-coal-plant” Chinese farm
Solar: rapid growth; Germany/European Union; China
Geothermal/Hydro/Tidal/other; underutilized
Solutions in Private Sector; Insurance-Background
Insurance Industry: largest; 7% of Global Economy
“Weather catastrophe” payouts up 400% in 2 decades
~40% of total payout funds
Munich Reinsurance: largest insurer of Insurance Co.s
concluded - in 1973 - there is:
“insurance risk from human-caused climate change” Those that must know, do know
Climate Change activities, 52 countries; UC-Berkeley Study
Insurance Ind. Climate Change funds (since 70s): > $95,000,000,000
Solutions: Insurance Industry ($s since 1970s)*
Climate Change Mitigation Investmt., 24 Billion $s
Public Awareness & Public Policy Initiatives, 31 Billion $s
Financing Client Loss Prevention, Adaptation and Climate Change Mitigation Projects, 57 Billion $$s
- e.g., forest restoration in catastrophe-prone areas
Climate Science: IPCC/Insurer Modeling, 21 Billion $s
__________ * The Greening of Insurance, Science Dec. 14 2012, 1424-1425
Mangrove Reforestation, Japanese Insurance Co.: increased resilience to storm damages - carbon sequestration - company is carbon neutral since 2008
Solutions: biggest Personal Choice impact Hybrid Cars with electric plug-in* - Ford C-Max Energie: ~$28,000
- Toyota Prius: ~$28,000
- Chevy Volt: ~$27,000
Electric Cars*
- Ford Focus E: ~$30,000
- Nissan Leaf: ~$29,000
*Fed rebates applied and 2013 $ amounts
Extra Slides: the following two slides may be useful
background material for presenters and museum educators