Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources Management in Kazakhstan Duskayev Kassym

Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources Management

inKazakhstan

Duskayev Kassym

Kazakh National University named after al-Farabi

Republic of Kazakhstan

Ftotal = 2,72 million sq. km

Water Resources of

the Republic of Kazakhstan

Fresh water reserves in the Republic of Kazakhstan, cu. km

190

95101

9558

Озера Ледники Сток рек Водохранилища Подземные воды

Lakes Glaciers River flows

Water reservoirs

Underground waters

Sourse:Water Resourse Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan

DEPENDENCE OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN UPON NEIGHBOURING STATES

58%

18%

8%

4%12%

Kazakhstan

China

Russia

Uzbekistan

Kyrgyzstan

Sourse: Water Resourse Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Average annual balance of water resources of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Total – 100,5 км3

Surface flow within the RK

56,6.км3

Avialable surface water flow – 42.6 км3

Flow from the RK onadjacent countries

42,4 км3

Inflow from adjacent countries - 43,9 км3

Filtration and evaporation losses - 15,5 кm3

Sourse: Water Resourse Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Map of Main River Basins in Kazakhstan

Basins of rivers, lakes and seas

The total average annual water

resources of the rivers , кm³Total including inflow from

adjacent countries

Aral-Syrdarya 17.9 14.6

Balkhash-Alakol 27.8 11.4

Irtysh 33.5 7.5

Ishim 2.6 -

Nura-Sarysu 1.3 -

Tobol-Turgai 2.0 -

Shu-Talas 4.2 3.0

Ural-Caspian 11.2 7.5

Total for the Republic 100.5 44.0

Rivers flow in the Republic of Kazakhstan, cu. кm

Sourse:Water Resourse Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Water Supply by Hydro-economic Basins of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Nos.

Basins of rivers, lakes and seas

Water provision, %

50%

norm. 75%

provision 95%

provision 1 Aral-Syrdarya 90 82 77

2 Balkhash-Alakol 98 80 61

3 Irtysh 100 100 100

4 Ishim 90 40 10

5 Nura-Sarysu 53 20 5

6 Tobol-Turgai 89 33 6

7 Shu-Talas 90 73 56

8 Ural-Caspian 100 35 10

Total for the Republic 97 76 60

Water availability in the Republic of

Kazakhstan, the average water year

Water availability

Total, cu. km per

year

for 1 person,cu. m

per 1 square. km, cu. m

100,5 6000 37000

Water Consumption Parameters

Republic of

Kazakhstan

Water consumption, %

Total Utilities Industry Agriculture

Other

100 5.0 16.0 78.0 1.0

List of research institutes and organizations in assessing climate change in Kazakhstan

• State Republican Enterprise “The Kazakh State Climate and Ecology Research Institute” (KazNIIEK)• State Republican Enterprise “Kazhydromet”• Non-governmental organization “Coordination Centre on Climate Change”• Kazakh National University named after al-Farabi• Institute of Geography of the Ministry of Education and Science• Public Association “Karaganda oblast Ecological Museum” (Ecomuzei)• Institute of Botany and Phytointroduction of the Ministry

of Education and Science• The Kazakh Forest Management Enterprise• International projects

The linear coefficient of temperature trend of the surface air in Kazakhstan

Between 1936 and 2005, based on observation data from over 90 meteorological stations in Kazakhstan, the calculated linear trends in the mean air temperature time series and the sum atmospheric precipitation show that the climate of Kazakhstan in the period became significantly warmer.

The average annual temperature increased: - by 0,31°C /10 years - by 0,50°C /10 years – in winter - by 0,21°C /10 years – in summer

Sourse: State Republican Enterprise “The Kazakh State Climate and Ecology Research Institute” (KazNIIEK)

Sliding 5-years average temperature of the air on the data of the meteorological station Minjilki

-3,00

-2,50

-2,00

-1,50

-1,00

-0,50

0,00

1937

-194

1

1939

-194

3

1941

-194

5

1943

-194

7

1945

-194

9

1947

-195

1

1949

-195

3

1951

-195

5

1953

-195

7

1955

-195

9

1957

-196

1

1959

-196

3

1961

-196

5

1963

-196

7

1965

-196

9

1967

-197

1

1969

-197

3

1971

-197

5

1973

-197

7

1975

-197

9

1977

-198

1

1979

-198

3

1981

-198

5

1983

-198

7

1985

-198

9

yearstoC

Sourse: Kazakh National University named after al-Farabi

Climate change status: main conclusions

• Ubiquitous increase of seasonal and annual temperature

• Increase of climate aridity in deserts and semi-deserts areas of Kazakhstan, as well as adjacent areas

• Increase of total rainfall in the western and northern parts of Kazakhstan and central zone. The same trend was seen in the mountainous parts of the South and South-East of the country. However this had less impact on raising air temperatures.

• Degradation of glaciers has been recorded by 0,8% in South-East mountains and 1% in glacier storage.

Changes in average annual surface air temperature and annual total precipitation according to “hard”, “medium” and “soft” scenarios of GHG concentrations in Kazakhstan

Scenario Climate characteristics 2030 2050 2085

Medium Change in average annual air 1.4°C 2.7°C 4.6°C temperature Change in total annual +2% +4% +5% precipitation Extremely Change in average annual 1.2–1.9°C(1.3°C) 2.5–4.0°C (3.0°C) 5.7–8.0°C

(6.2°C) high (hard) air temperature Change in total annual 2– +8% (2.2%) -4– +15% (3.7%) 8–28% (6.5%) precipitation Extremely Change in average annual 1.5–2.2°C (1.7°C) 1.6–2.6°C (2.0°C) 3.1–3.4°C

(3.3°C) low (soft) air temperature Change in total annual 0-8% (3.0%) -3– +9% (1.7%) -2– +13% (4.1%) precipitation


Expected climate change: main conclusions

• Increase of seasonal and annual temperatures• Increase of precipitation in the winter period• Increase of the annual amount of precipitations• Decrease of rainfalls in the summer period since 2050• On the major territory of Kazakhstan increase of

precipitation does not compensate increase of air temperature

• All scenarios of GHG concentration change tend to increase of aridity


The potential impact of the climate change on water resources

• will increase on the average from 1-4 % to 14-22% in mountain areas

• will decrease by 7-10% in the plain areas• decrease total rivers flow from 100 cu. km to 75

cu. km per year

The degradation of the mountains glaciations and its impact on the resources of the river flow primarily in the basin Balkhash-Alakol.

Sourse: Institute of Geography of the Ministry of Education and Science

Regions were ranked on four summary indicators: • Economic potential for adaptation ;• Sensitivity to Climate Change ;• Climate change ;• Exposure to risk of emergency situations .

Ranking regions in terms of their vulnerability to climate change

A preliminary assessment of vulnerability

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Sourse: Project “Climate Risk Management in Kazakhstan”

The vulnerability of the regions of

Kazakhstan

Sourse: Project “Climate Risk Management in Kazakhstan”

Climate change adaptation and mitigation policies in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention (Kyoto Protocol or KP) in May 1995 and April 2009 respectively. On September 17, 2009, Kazakhstan became an official Party to the KP.

March 2011, in Astana was presented new joint project of the Ministry of Environmental Protection of the RK, UNDP Kazakhstan and Global Environmental Fund "Assistance to the Republic of Kazakhstan in preparation of the Third National Communication in accordance with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN FCCC)“.

Kazakhstan has developed a National Programme for Adaptation to Climate Change.

Activities on adaptation to climate change in the water sector of the Republic of

Kazakhstan

In the National Communication (INC Kazakhstan, 2008) proposed 3 types of measures:

1) economic development with a focus on waterless and low-water technology;2) increasing the share of groundwater use;3) diversion of river flow within regions and beyond their borders.

To reduce the negative effects influence the vulnerability of water resources in the sector

requires:• reconstruction of irrigation systems and water systems to

minimize water loss; • replacement of moisture-loving crops on irrigated lands less

moisture-loving crops; • introduction of advanced technologies in irrigated

agriculture;• introduction of low-water technology and water recycling

systems in existing industrial enterprises and utilities;• the use of wastewater; • review modes hydropower;• dredging, the reconstruction of docks and piers on navigable

rivers:• replacement of the existing ship types of river transport and

fishing fleet on the court with less rainfall.

Activities to optimize the health of aquatic ecosystems and the environment:

– strict limitation of economic activity in most shallow areas and transfer it to other areas;

– strict measures to establish a sanitary protection zones near surface water sources and places groundwater

– mandatory environmental impact assessment of new projects on the use of water resources;

– widespread use of chemical and biological wastewater treatment;

– development and implementation of additional reclamation, agro forestry and agro-technical measures to ensure environmental safety of water resources;

– create a favorable water heat regime for habitat and reproduction of fish and other living organisms, regulating their numbers.

Measures to adapt water resources of Kazakhstan in the basins of the Irtysh, Ishim and Tobol

Events Priorities Additional water volume, million cu. m

Estimated investment: $ million

Irtysh River Basin

Flow regulation 1 3610 182

Saving water 2 1699 3470

Run-off diversion 3 250 1071

Groundwater 4 402 3304

TOTAL 5961 8027

Ishim River Basin

Flow regulation 1 135 90


Run-off diversion 3 105 126


TOTAL 415 632

Tobol River Basin



TOTAL 356 1209

Thanks for your attention!

Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources Management in Kazakhstan Duskayev Kassym

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