Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

download Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

of 27

Transcript of Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    1/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |1

    INSIDE THIS ISSUE

    1.

    Industry Overview

    2. Major Industry Trends

    3. Outlook and Growth

    Opportunities

    4. Public Comparable Analysis

    5. Transaction Analysis

    Contact:

    Gregory Bedrosian

    CEO & Managing Partner

    [email protected]

    212.508.7111

    Vikram Chandrasekaran

    Vice President

    [email protected]

    212.508.7106

    Redwood Capital

    950 Third Avenue

    Suite 2001

    New York NY 10022

    www.redcapgroup.com

    SECTORREPORT

    CINEMA OPERATOR INDUSTRY

    INDUSTRY OVERVIEWRECENT FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

    Global box office revenues continued to increase in 2013, reaching $36 billion after growing at a

    5.2% CAGR from 2008 - 2013. Although North America accounted for the largest share of global

    box office revenues in 2013 with $11.8 billion, its share declined from 38% in 2008 to 33% in

    2013 and underperformed compared to the total global market with only a 2.4% CAGR. Overall

    industry growth was driven primarily by rapid growth in emerging markets, including Latin

    America (16.8%) and Asia Pacific (7.7%). More recently, during 2010 to 2013, the box office in

    developed markets remained relatively flat (0.4% CAGR), while emerging markets grew at an

    11.3% CAGR.

    2013 global box office revenue increased 4.4% over 2012, led by strong growth in China (19.0%)

    which reached $3.2 billion and maintained its position as the second largest market for movie

    exhibition behind North America, as well as in Russia (7.0%) and Brazil (7.0%). In North Americaand Europe, box office revenues grew 2.6%, slowing from their CAGRs over the 2008-2013

    period. Economic worries and saturation of theaters impacted many developed markets,

    including Italy (1.9% CAGR from 20082013) and Spain (0.1% CAGR from 20082013).

    CHART 1:GLOBAL BOX OFFICE TRENDS BY REGION CHART 2:GLOBAL BOX OFFICE TRENDS BY TYPE OF

    MARKET

    Source: PwC filmed entertainment sector outlook Source: PwC filmed entertainment sector outlook

    PROJECTED PERFORMANCE

    According to PwC, the global box office is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.4% over the next five

    years, reaching $44 billion in 2017. Box office growth is projected to outpace the 3.6% CAGR of

    the overall filmed entertainment market during this time. Growth will continue to be driven

    primarily by emerging market countries including China (14.8%), Russia (10.4%) and India

    (10.1%). The overall BRIC market is expected to grow at a 14.4% CAGR through 2017 and to

    account for 25% of the global box office, up from 18% in 2012. Both Russia and China are

    experiencing significant growth in the number of screens and theaters and will continue to

    generate increased box office revenues as the new theaters from recent investment come

    online. China has 25,000 screens slated to open in the next five years, implying an average of 13new screen openings per day.

    The strong growth in global box office would increase the proportion of the box office revenue

    to 42% of the total filmed entertainment revenue by 2017, from 40% in 2008. The shift is more

    evident in the emerging markets, while in the developed markets, the revenue share of box

    office to the total filmed entertainment sector is expected to rise only marginally.

    The recent slate of films and lack of major blockbusters has hindered the growth of box office

    revenues over the past few years. However, there are numerous major titles scheduled for

    release in 2015 and 2016 which can potentially boost box office revenues in both developed

    markets and emerging markets as demand for blockbuster US content continues to increase with

    further globalization and access to content.

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    2/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |2

    CHART 3:BOX OFFICE GROWTH OUTLOOK BY REGION CHART 4:BOX OFFICE GROWTH OUTLOOK BY TYPE OF MARKET

    Source: PwC filmed entertainment sector outlook Source: PwC filmed entertainment sector outlook

    INDUSTRY DYNAMICS AND CONSOLIDATION

    The cinema operator industry is highly concentrated as the top five countries represent approximately

    58% of the global box office revenue and within each market, a small number of exhibitors represent a

    majority of the revenue. This is consistent for both developed and emerging markets. In the U.S., the four

    largest exhibitors (in terms of box office revenue) generated approximately 62% of the box office revenuesin 2012, up from 35% in 2000. As of December 2012, the top four U.S. exhibitors (out of a total 1,089

    exhibitors) operated 50.1% of the total screens. Similarly, in China, the top five operators generated 70%

    of the box office revenue in 2012. The UK is even more concentrated, with over 70% of the box office

    revenue shared between the top three exhibitors in 2012.

    As developed markets are further saturated and emerging markets continue to rapidly expand,

    consolidation will further concentrate the sector both within and across markets. There has been

    considerable consolidation in Europe over the last few years as well as in other parts of the world (see

    Transaction Analysis). Rapidly growing markets such as Russia, projected to grow at 9.8% through 2017,

    where in contrast to other major markets, the top five exhibitors comprised only 30% of the total screens

    at the end of 2012, present a consolidation opportunity for western cinema operators whose revenues are

    not growing and for Russian cinema operators vying for dominant market share.

    CHART 5:LARGEST BOX OFFICES BY REVENUE,2013

    Source: Theatrical Market Statistics (2013) by MPAA

    REVENUE MIX AND MARGIN ANALYSISMovie theaters generate revenue from three main sources: admissions, concessions and in-theater

    advertising with admissions and concessions together generally accounting for 95% of a cinema operators

    revenue. Admissions account for the largest percentage of revenue while generating the lowest margin.

    For major cinema operators, concessions generate significantly higher gross margins (~80-85%) versus

    admissions (~45-50%). Other sources of revenue, such as in-theater advertising generate even higher gross

    margins, but usually account for less than 10% of a cinema operators revenue. For example, in 2013, Regal

    Entertainment Group generated $2.1 billion in revenue from admissions, $817 million from concessions

    and $162 million from other sources including in-theater advertising. Gross margin on admissions revenue

    was 47.7%, while concessions generated gross margin of 86.3%.

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    3/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |3

    CHART 6:REVENUE BREAKDOWN (2013) CHART 7:GROSS MARGINS FOR REVENUE STREAMS (2013)

    Source: Company filings, Redwood Capital calculations Source: Company filings, Redwood Capital calculations

    *For Carmike, Concessions revenues include other revenues *For Carmike, Concessions revenues include other revenues

    MAJOR INDUSTRY TRENDSATTENDANCE

    Global theater attendance (or admissions) has gradually declined over the recent years due to a decline in

    developed markets such as North America and Europe, where in 2013 US admissions declined 1% and UKadmissions declined 4%. However, emerging markets such as China and Russia have shown strong gains in

    theater admissions.

    Within the U.S., theater admissions declined from a peak of 1.58 billion tickets sold in 2002 to 1.34 billion

    in 2013. The rise in penetration of alternate distribution channels such as Netflix, Hulu and VoD (Video on

    Demand), as well as reduced theatrical release windows have contributed to the decline in annual ticket

    sales. Developed markets are also fully saturated with theaters and screens. This is in contrast to emerging

    markets where large theaters with multiple screens are providing the movie-going experience to those

    who have not had easy access in the past. In these less mature theater markets, alternate distribution

    channels do not provide the same value as the movie-going experience and therefore are having less of an

    effect on ticket sales.

    According to Fitch Ratings, theater attendance is expected to remain under pressure in the years to come.

    The growth in number of screens will begin to decline as markets become saturated with theaters. Access

    to alternate distribution channels will continue to grow and will also put more pressure on theater ticketsales.

    CHART 8:LARGEST MARKETS BY ATTENDANCE, 2011 CHART 9:ADMISSIONS IN U.S./CANADA

    Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (July 2013) Source: Theatrical Market Statistics (2013) by MPAA

    PRICING

    Global movie ticket prices rose significantly in recent years, with ticket price growth outpacing the world

    Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) index in several years. While the CAGR for world inflation for 2006-2011#

    was 4.2%, ticket prices grew at a CAGR of 6.5% over the same period. Rising penetration of 3D screens

    around the globe has allowed movie exhibitors to increase ticket prices. According to a report by MPAA,

    the total number of 3D screens increased 17% in 2013. Similarly, other premium services such as larger

    reclining theater seats, direct to seat concession offerings and tiered pricing for seat selection have

    contributed to the increase in ticket prices. Ticket prices are also affected by the demand for theatrical

    releases and years in which there are multiple blockbuster releases see higher ticket prices on average.

    The rise in ticket prices accounts for the growth in box office revenues even though admissions are slowly

    declining.

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    4/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |4

    CHART 10:TICKET PRICE GROWTH VS.CPIINFLATION,GLOBAL

    Source: IMF, UNESCO Institute for Statistics (July 2013),#data for global ticket prices available as of 2011 only

    There are numerous blockbuster films slated for release in the next few years and along with increasing

    value being added to the movie-going experience, it is expected that movie exhibitors will be able to

    command higher pricing in the years to come. Global ticket price growth is also expected to continue to

    outpace broader inflation metrics.

    SCREENS

    The total number of cinema screens around the world grew 4% to 134k in 2013 after rising by 5.0% to 129k

    in 2012. The U.S./Canada region had the highest number of screens in the world (42,814), followed by Asia

    Pacific (41,206), Europe, Middle East and Africa (39,597) and Latin America (10,694) at the end of 2013.

    Asia Pacific continued its double digit growth of 11%.

    According to the MPAA Theatrical Market Statistics 2013 Report, over 80% of the worlds screens and at

    least 50% of the screens in every region are now digital. 3D screens specifically continued to grow at 17%

    in 2013 versus 25% in 2012 and 62% in 2011. While 3D screens comprise only 40% of the total digital

    screens in U.S./Canada, which were early adopters of digitization, they make up 57% and 51% of the digital

    screens in Asia Pacific and Latin America, respectively. During 2013, Latin America led the world in

    conversion of screens to 3D, with 42.6% growth in 3D screens compared to 24.7% in Asia Pacific, 13.2% in

    EMEA and 7.1% growth in U.S./Canada. Russia has seen strong growth since 2010 as the number of 3D

    screens has almost doubled in 2 years (44.8% CAGR from 2010-2012) to 1,966, and further increased to

    2,190 screens at the end of June 2013.

    CHART 11:WORLDWIDE DIGITAL 3DSCREENS (UNITS)

    Source: IHS Screen Digest, Theatrical Market Statistics (2013) by MPAA

    The number of screens globally is expected to continue to grow, driven by emerging markets. Going

    forward, the growth of 3D screens should also continue at a healthy pace, as the fastest growing movie

    markets increasingly adopt 3D screens and new screens are built as digital 3D screens. In January 2013,

    RealD (a leading global licensor of 3D technologies) and Karo Film (cinema operator in Russia with 197

    screens) announced a deal to convert Karo Film screens to RealD 3D technology. Cinema operators are

    also focusing on China and increasing the number of 3D screens. For instance, IMAX announced that it will

    add screens in the country to raise its number of 3D screens from a current 80 to 217 in the next few

    years. RealD has also reached agreements with cinema operators in 2013 to equip more movie screens in

    China with its 3D technology.

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    5/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |5

    DIGITIZATION

    Digitization was an important theme over the past decade, as a majority of theaters across the world have

    converted their projection technology from analog to digital. In fact, in the U.S., all prominent studios have

    announced that they will completely stop distributing movies over 35mm prints in major markets (the U.S.,

    Canada, the UK, France, Australia and Japan) by the end of 2013 and worldwide by the end of 2015.

    To keep up with these trends, theater operators have had to upgrade their display technology. The

    number of digital screens have multiplied from 6,700 in 2007 to almost 111,809 screens in 2013, and

    comprised more than 80% of the total screens at the end of 2013. The digitization wave was largely driven

    by the developed markets of the U.S./Canada (93% digitized at the end of 2013). Digital conversion in

    Northern and Western Europe stands at nearly 100% conversion with only a few remaining independents

    to go.

    CHART 12:CINEMA SCREENS BY TECHNOLOGY AND REGION (UNITS)

    Source: Theatrical Market Statistics (2013) by MPAA

    While developed markets led the way with respect to digitization, emerging markets have caught up

    quickly too. Digital conversion activity in Asia-Pacific also remained strong, with a CAGR of 50.2% during

    2011-2013. The pick-up in Latin America is even stronger, with a CAGR of 87.2% during the same period.

    Similar trend can also be seen in Russia, with digital screens expected to register a CAGR of 36.8% during

    2011-2013. As of June 2013, 76% of the screens in Russia are in digital format, which is expected to have

    increased up to 84% by the end of 2013.

    CHART 13:INTERNATIONAL DIGITAL SCREENS AS A PROPORTION OF TOTAL (UNITS)

    Source: Theatrical Market Statistics (2013) by MPAA

    THE RISE OF MULTIPLEX CHAINS

    Since 2000, the trend towards theaters with multiple screens has rapidly penetrated the cinema exhibitor

    market. According to data published by UNESCO in July 2013, the number of multiplex screens increased

    from about 5,000 in 2006 to more than 51,000 in 2011, a CAGR of 47.2%. This is significantly higher than

    the CAGR of 1.5% in total number of screens during the same period (from 95,000 in 2006 to almost

    104,000 in 2011). In emerging markets, the penetration of the multiplex trend has been significant with a

    rise of 100% from 2007-2011.

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    6/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |6

    GLOBAL SHARE OF MULTIPLEXES IN TOTAL SCREENS (%)

    CHART 14:GLOBAL CHART 15:EMERGING MARKETS

    Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (July 2013), ex South Korea

    This trend towards multiplexes is expected to continue as it presents an opportunity to grow ancillary

    revenues, which cannot be generated in single-screen theaters. Multiplexes can exhibit a variety of other

    filmed entertainment content as well as provide a valuable location for other services such as food and

    beverage outlets increasing the overall quality of the movie-going experience.Additionally, multiplexes also reduce costs having a higher number of screens in the same location enables

    effective capacity management, depending upon the number and quality of movies released. Having more

    than one screen at a location lowers the per-seat overhead costs for movie exhibitors. Moreover, with

    screens having different seating capacities, theater operators get the flexibility to shift more popular

    movies to screens with higher capacity and vice versa, thus increasing overall occupancy rates and helping

    operators increase revenues in a cost-effective and manner.

    THEATRICAL RELEASE WINDOW

    Theatrical release window is the period between a movies release in theaters and its releases on alternate

    media such as DVD, Blu-Ray, DTH and online streaming. Over the years, the duration of the window has

    declined across the globe. In the U.S., the window has been reduced from over six months in 2000 to

    approximately four months presently. In the U.K., box office contributes approximately one third of the

    movies revenues; hence, a shorter window will ensure that the publicity costs incurred during the theater

    release can also help improve sales in other viewing formats. In markets where box office revenuescomprise larger portions of total revenues, theatrical windows are generally longer. In most emerging

    markets, the window is well above the global average. In India, box office forms about 74% of a movies

    revenues, which explains why the window is significantly longer than in other countries. However, in

    Russia, the window is well below the global average and hence proving to be a drag on movie exhibition

    revenues. Going forward, it is expected that box office revenues will continue to contribute a lions share

    of movie revenues (about 69% in 2015) in emerging markets. Consequently, we do not expect the

    theatrical window to shorten significantly in coming years in developing countries.

    OUTLOOK AND GROWTH OPPORTUNITIESCinema operator revenues continue to grow globally in both developed and emerging markets. Emerging

    markets continue to see rapid revenue growth while developed markets see continued growth albeit not

    as rapidly. There are growth opportunities for both developed and emerging markets as operators

    continue to enhance the movie-going experience in the face of alternative viewing methods and add other

    revenue generating services that will help improve margins as well. Additionally there is a significant

    growth opportunity through acquisition.

    Within the developed economies, the U.S./Canada region should continue to lead merger/acquisition

    activity in the movie exhibition space. However, given that the industry has reached a high level of

    concentration, most targets have been small players and as a result of which the average deal size could

    see some moderation as compared to historical levels. Within emerging economies, there is an

    opportunity for consolidation both within the given markets as well as from developed markets. Cinema

    operators in developed markets seeking increased growth can potentially acquire smaller operators in

    emerging markets. Russia specifically is an interesting market, which possesses high-growth characteristics

    and very low industry concentration as compared to the global average. If the market opens up to foreign

    cinema chains, competition could substantially increase in the sector and consolidation activity has the

    potential to increase with leading operators reinsuring their market position.

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    7/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |7

    In emerging markets, there is another growth opportunity as theater owners look to improve screen

    availability per capita, which is currently well below global average. Specifically, China (the second largest

    movie market in the world by box-office) where the governments initiative of opening up the countrys

    cultural industry will be the key driver of screen growth in the country. Mexican theater chain Cinepolis

    recently announced its intention to expand its screen network to 500 screens by 2017, from 84 currently.In markets such as India, where the government has a favorable foreign investment policy (100% foreign

    direct investment is allowed in the movie exhibition industry), international players will see the rapid

    growth as an opportunity.

    Finally, both developed and emerging markets are adding new revenue generating services and enhancing

    the movie-going experience to increase revenues and profits.

    IN-THEATER ADVERTISING

    Apart from ticketing and concessions, theaters also generate revenue from in-theater advertising.

    Advertising in cinema screens is highly lucrative for brands because of the large and affluent demographic

    of the audience and undivided attention from viewers leading to higher message recall rate compared to

    television advertising. In addition, in-theater advertising via national theater chains offers advertisers the

    option of displaying ads on a country-wide basis or locally in a particular region.

    In the U.S., three of the four largest cinema chains (Regal, AMC and Cinemark) formed National Cinemedia

    to take handle their in-theater advertising. With its lack of direct competition, direct access to the major

    cinema theaters in the U.S. and increasing preference of advertisers for in-theater promotion, National

    Cinemedia is poised for significant growth. According to the Cinema Advertising Council (CAC), in-theater

    advertising in the U.S. has grown by 3.5% CAGR from $571mn in 2008 to $678mn in 2013, while box office

    revenues for U.S. / Canada have grown 2.6% CAGR during the same period.

    CHART 16:CINEMA ADVERTISING REVENUES AS %OF BOX OFFICE COLLECTIONS (U.S./CANADA)

    Source: CAC data, Theatrical Market Statistics (2013) by MPAA

    ONLINE TICKETING

    A trend that has quickly established itself in the movie industry is the emergence of online ticketing.

    Movietickets.com and Fandango are the worlds leading players in this industry and were created by the

    theater operators themselves. Along with websites of theater chains, third-party ticketing websites that

    partner with theater chains have also grown rapidly. According to Global Industry Analytics, the global

    industry for online movie ticketing will reach $13.7bn by 2017. While Fandango provides access to 14,000

    screens across the U.S., MovieTickets covers more than 22,000 screens in a number of countries across the

    Americas and Europe.

    SATELLITE DISTRIBUTION

    With a majority of the theaters converted to digital technology, theaters can now use satellite distribution,

    which completely bypasses physical distribution of tapes (analog or digital). Along with quality

    improvements, satellite distribution also provides additional revenue opportunities such as exhibiting live

    events from across the world and across genres (music, sports, etc.) for theaters. Event programming, such

    as live concerts and Metropolitan Opera performances are now made possible by satellite delivery and

    projection.

    In an effort to improve film delivery options, movie exhibitors AMC, Regal, Cinemark and the studios

    Warner Bros. and Universal Pictures formed the Digital Cinema Distribution Coalition (DCDC) in 2012.

    DCDC helps individual theaters to implement technology upgrades for enabling satellite distribution. As of

    now, the DCDC has covered 1,200 theaters and 17,000 screens across the U.S.

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    8/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |8

    ENHANCED THEATER EXPERIENCE:TECHNOLOGY AND PREMIUM OFFERINGS

    Offering premium offerings keeps the demand for the movie-going experience up and allows exhibitors to

    charge higher ticket prices. Admissions also allow exhibitors the opportunity to generate higher revenues

    from concessions which provide higher margins.

    The 3D format has witnessed tremendous growth in the last few years allowing movie exhibitors to charge

    higher admission fees and provide movie-goers with an experience that they cant experience with

    alternate media. With the advent of high quality 3D televisions, theater exhibitors are implementing other

    enhancements. IMAX and RealD screens that are larger and have enhanced 3D technology offer an

    experience that Netflix and VoD cannot compete with.

    The next upgrade in the movie-viewing experience is 4D, where the audiences additional senses are

    engaged. In addition to sight and sound, the audience also senses smells and movements along with the

    movie. Because of the significant technology upgrades required, 4D movies are currently shown in

    specially prepared theaters. As of August 2013, more than 10,000 4DX technology seats (Combines various

    4D technologies, made by South Korea-based CJ CGV Co Limited) were available in 58 cinema sites across

    16 countries.

    Premium services go beyond movies and snacks. These includes pre-movie parties, luxurious seating,

    smaller number of seats (giving the feel of private screenings and exclusivity), improved screen and sound

    systems, wide menu of food and drinks served at the seat, availability of alcohol, priority seating andvarious other experience enhancing offerings.

    An upcoming trend in the movie industry is multi-tiered pricing, similar to Broadway shows, wherein

    tickets for highly popular or blockbuster movies as well as for prime seat selection will be priced at a

    premium. Multi-tiered pricing has the potential to allow blockbuster movies to stay in theaters for a much

    longer time which will generate significantly higher revenues for theater operators.

    To ensure higher concession revenues, theater operators have partnered with restaurants and coffee

    chains (e.g. Odeons deal with Costa Coffee), expanding food and beverage offerings. Theaters also offer

    new services such as gourmet food and alcohol as well as theater experience enhancing offerings such as

    food being served directly to a patrons seat. Recently, AMC launched theaters that have reclining seats

    and extensive gourmet food and beverage menu served directly to a moviegoers seat. Regal Cinemas

    introduced RPX (Regal Premium Experience) which includes a bigger movie screen and a significantly

    better sound system. The trend is not limited to just the U.S. as Shaw Theaters of Singapore hosts

    Premiere shows that have pre-movie cocktail parties and food & drinks served during the movie. RegalCinemas also offered Mega Tickets, wherein Regal bundles in a host of products and services (entry to

    pre-release screening, snacks, movie poster, DVD copy as soon as it is released) with the basic movie ticket

    for a significantly higher amount.

    PUBLIC COMPARABLE ANALYSISSTOCK PERFORMANCE

    CHART 17:RELATIVE PERFORMANCE OF INDICES,01/01/2009-03/26/2014

    Source: CapitalIQ, Redwood Capital

    Note: Redwood Global Cinema Exhibitors Index excludes North American movie exhibitors

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    9/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |9

    From 2009 to present, the Redwood North America Cinema Exhibitors Index1 (NACI) and the Redwood

    Global Cinema Exhibitors Index2(GCI) have significantly outperformed the stock market, recording a CAGR

    of 21% and 24.7% respectively as compared to a CAGR of 14.9% for the S&P 500 Index. Although the GCI

    has given better point-to-point performance, the NACI has been more consistent, with outperformance

    over the S&P 500 in four of the last five years. Largely, the movements of both of the cinema indices movein the same direction as the S&P 500 Index. However, given that the cinema indices represent a smaller

    and concentrated sub-sector of the overall entertainment industry, the changes in their value, both

    positive and negative, are more volatile.

    In Period 1 (from January 2009 to April 2009), all of the indices under consideration were fairly volatile.

    This period can be further divided into two phases. In the first phase, which lasted for two months, all of

    the indices contracted. After this, the markets staged a recovery and rose significantly in the next month.

    In both phases, the NACI outperformed the other two and provided total returns of 36.1% in three and a

    half months, compared to 5.5% for the GCI and -4.2% for the S&P 500 Index. The NACIs performance was

    led by the two big theater chains, Regal and Cinemark, each returning more than 37% in the three months.

    Over the last five years, the two cinema indices have moved largely in line, except for a fifteen month

    period from July 2010 to October 2011. During this period, the GCI was significantly more volatile than the

    NACI. It first grew by 38.8% in five months, only to fall by 24.2% afterwards, with a total return of 5.2%. In

    contrast, the NACI remained relatively flat, growing slightly at 1.3%. Tokyu Recreation, a Japan basedmovie exhibitor was the most volatile component of the GCI as it grew 67.7% and fell 40.7%, remaining

    relatively flat for the period. At the end of the period, the GCI returned to the level of the NACI.

    During the weak global macro-economic scenario in 2010 and 2011 the NACI (8.6%) managed to maintain

    most of its outperformance over the S&P 500 (11.6%), while the GCI (16.4%) actually stretched its margin.

    After 2011, in the two year period of 2012 and 2013, the cinema outperformed by a significant margin

    with the NACI growing 76.4%, more than the GCI (54.5%) and the S&P 500 (44.2%). Because of this rise,

    the GCI almost doubled its outperformance over the S&P 500 at 81.9% and the NACI more than tripled it at

    95.1%.

    TABLE 1:KEY VALUATION PARAMETERS

    Source: Capital IQ, data as of March 26, 2014

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    10/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |10

    In the U.S./Canada region, valuations seem to be most influenced by two major factors: i) earnings growth

    potential of the company, and ii) size and scale. The Canadian company Cineplex enjoys a valuation

    premium to its competitors, given above-par revenue as well as EBITDA growth prospects. Moreover, it is

    the least levered within the peer set, which implies higher debt-taking ability, a key for pursuing inorganic

    growth opportunities. Looking specifically at the U.S. movie exhibitors (i.e. excluding Cineplex), the size ofthe operator (in terms of number of screens) also seems to have an effect on valuation. Carmike Cinemas

    has higher expected EBITDA growth in 2014 and a much lower debt burden than both Regal Entertainment

    and AMC. However, both Regal Entertainment and AMC have higher multiples than Carmike Cinemas.

    Regal Entertainment is the largest movie exhibitor in the U.S. with a network of 7,381 movie screens

    across the region, while AMC has about 4,908 screens. Carmike Cinemas, on the other hand, operates

    2,552 screens, which are almost one-third of Regal Entertainment and only half of AMC.

    In Europe, while earnings growth is a determinant of valuations, investors seem to lay greater emphasis on

    the debt burden of the company when deciding the premium/discount. Kinepolis Group trades at

    substantial premium to its peers, given that it has the lowest leverage in the group. It should be noted that

    strong EBITDA growth expected at Cineworld Group is reflective of its recent acquisition of Cinema City.

    Valuations trends in the Asia Pacific are divergent, probably reflecting different dynamics and growths

    across markets, which have highly varied characteristics. Companies in high-growth markets such as India

    and China are valued with premiums to their peers (LTM basis), and leverage levels seem to be less of a

    concern for investors. PVR Limited trades at significantly higher valuations than the peer group (ex-BonaFilm) despite having the highest net debt-to-EBITDA ratio. The rise in debt can be mainly attributed to the

    companys acquisition of 95.27% stake in rival Cinemax India (69.27% stake in November 2012, and

    another 26% in January 2013 through an open offer) for around INR5.4bn (approximately $98mn). The

    benefits from the acquisition were two-fold for PVR: first, it cemented the companys position in the

    Western India; and second, it helped the company achieve synergies and cost benefits from the larger

    scale. The acquisition made PVR the largest multiplex operator in India with a network of more than 350

    screens.

    Going forward, the concentrated nature of the movie exhibition industry is likely to further intensify, as

    smaller players become acquisition targets given the expected rise in funding requirements, driven by

    higher spending on technology and improving the movie-going experience. Valuations should remain

    favorable for participants with large scale and a strong market position, especially those that are well

    positioned to exploit growth opportunities. In addition, an edge in negotiating contracts with the studios

    as well as concession vendors, and the ability to quickly absorb newer technologies of movie exhibition

    should further boost valuations. Among smaller players, valuations could display mixed traits. Players who

    fail to adapt to the new trends in technology could see their valuations come under pressure. However,

    valuations should remain buoyant for those that possess either strong financials or distinct advantages

    such as favorable vendor contracts, prime locations etc., as acquirers continue to seek targets with the

    most potential.

    TRANSACTION ANALYSISMERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS

    TABLE 2:DEAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY,2009TO 2014YTD

    Source: Capital IQ, *YTD

    The mergers and acquisitions activity in the movie exhibition industry witnessed a buoyant environment

    during 2009-2013, with activity picking up in the latter half of the period. The activity was typically

    characterized by one or two large deals (over $500m) accounting for a majority of the transaction value

    every year, with numerous smaller deals comprising the rest.

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    11/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |11

    The deal volume displayed a rising trend from 2009 to 2012, the highest deal activity being recorded in

    2012. In terms of deal value, 2010 topped the list with $4.7bn worth transactions recorded. 2010 also

    witnessed the best median deal value ($31.5mn) and a sharp recovery in the transaction multiples from

    2009. Of note, the acquisition of Tanjong plc the owner of the Malaysian theater chain TGV Cinemasby

    Usaha Tegas Sdn. Bhd for $3.2bn accounted for 68% of the total deal value in 2010. Moreover, Tanjong plcis not a pure-play movie exhibitor, but rather a conglomerate entity with interests in the power

    generation, gaming and property investment businesses. TGV Cinemas comprised approximately 5% of the

    total revenue of Tanjong. Excluding this deal, the total value of deals comes to $1.5bn, which represents an

    impressive two-fold growth over 2009.

    The strong growth in 2010 was followed by a sharp dip in activity in 2011, as transaction value fell 88.5%. A

    likely explanation being a tighter global capital market, especially in the developed markets, where impact

    of the Eurozone debt crisis and the deterioration in the U.S. economy affected deal velocity. Moreover,

    with discretionary spending under pressure due to rising unemployment, investors and theater owners

    were both skeptical to invest money into the industry.

    The revival in 2012 was impressive, with deal volumes up almost 20% and deal value rising almost six-fold

    to $3.7bn. Along with the volume rise, the average deal size increased materially to $148.5mn as total deal

    value reached $3.7bn from $547mn in 2011. Excluding the Tanjong-Usaha transaction in 2010, the year

    2012 recorded the highest value of transactions during the last five years. The pick-up in deal activity wasled by the U.S., where deal volumes doubled to 29 as compared to 14 in 2011, as favorable interest rates

    and gradual improvement in economic indicators improved investor confidence. One factor to notice is the

    reduction in the median deal value, implying that there were higher numbers of small-ticket transactions

    during the year 2012 as compared to 2011. The year 2012 was characterized by one of the most prominent

    deals in recent times: the acquisition of U.S.-based multiplex operator AMC Entertainment Holdings by the

    Chinese group Dalian Wanda for $2.9bn. Interestingly, the valuation multiples TTM revenue multiple of

    1.01x and EBITDA multiple of 7.93x were both below the respective industry medians. The likely reason

    for the discounted valuations was AMCs highly levered balance sheet. Before the IPO in May 2012, AMCs

    total borrowings amounted to $2.2bn against shareholders equity of $0.15bn, implying a high debt-to-

    equity ratio of 14.3x (as of March 2012). Post the IPO, the ratio improved significantly, and according to its

    Q3 2013 filing, stood at 2.58x. In the high-growth markets, a key deal was the acquisition of a controlling

    stake in Russias Karo Film by a consortium of investors in December. The amount of the acquisition was

    undisclosed, with industry estimates pegging the deal value at below $250mn to around $450mn (see

    below).The momentum built in 2012 faded slightly in 2013, with total transaction value coming in below the prior-

    year level. Despite the decline, the year was still the second best in the last five years in terms of deal

    volume, with the median deal size increasing over two-fold from 2012. Valuation multiples, however,

    contracted. The year witnessed the largest deal in Europe in the last five years, where OMERS Private

    Equity and Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMC) acquired U.K.-based theater operator

    Vue Entertainment for $1.5bn. The deal was valued at a premium to the industry median, at a TTM EBITDA

    multiple of 8.50x compared to the industry median of 7.6x. We believe that Vues leading market position

    and strong performance during 2010-2013 on the back of strategic acquisitions around Europe resulted in

    the premium valuations.

    2014 began on a modest note, with seven deals in the first three months. Moreover, except for the

    Cinema City acquisition, sized at $825mn (see below for details), the rest were low-ticket transactions,

    falling in the sub- $10mn category.

    TABLE 3:DEAL BREAKDOWN BY SIZE,2009TO 2014YTD

    Source: Capital IQ, *YTD

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    12/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |12

    The last five years saw a negligible volume of big-ticket transactions, with only three disclosed deals over a

    value of $1bn: Tanjong-Usaha in 2010 for $3.2bn, AMC-Wanda in 2012 for $2.9bn, and Vue-OMERS-AIMC

    in 2013 for $1.5bn. The only large deals apart from these were in 2010, when Doughty Hanson & Co.

    purchased Vue Entertainment for $730mn and in 2014 when Cinema City was acquired for $825mn.

    Excluding these, all deals have been below $500mn in size, with the sub-$100mn category comprising amajority of the deal volume in all years. As a proportion of total deals, the number of deals in the category

    increased from 34.5% in 2009 to 45% in 2013. This could be attributed to the industry structure, which is

    very concentrated at the top and highly fragmented below. In almost every major market in the world, the

    top four or five players comprise a significant proportion of the screen network as well as total industry

    revenue. As such, most targets are very small players, which inevitably results in an increase in small-size

    mergers/acquisition deals.

    THEAMC-WANDADEAL,$2.6BN,2012

    In May 2012, Wanda announced the acquisition of the second largest movie chain in the U.S., AMC

    Entertainment, and the deal was successfully completed in August. At the time of acquisition, AMC had

    over 5,000 screens spread across 346 locations in the U.S. The deal valued AMC Entertainment at $2.6bn,

    with a commitment of another $0.5bn by Wanda to i) lower AMCs heavy debt burden, and ii) invest in

    theater improvements including upgrading screen technology and increasing options for food and

    beverage.

    The prominence of the deal is reflected in the fact that it was the largest acquisition by a Chinese entity in

    the U.S. entertainment industry. Wanda took on a debt of $1.9bn to complete the acquisition. The

    company, which claims to have a share of over 15% of the total Chinese box office, said that the deal was

    in line with its strategy of international expansion. The deal would also enable Wanda to improve its

    negotiating power with major studios, considering its leading position in two of the worlds largest movie

    markets. The deal rationale was questioned by industry experts, considering that overall movie attendance

    numbers in the U.S. had reached a low in 2011, and that AMC had a highly levered balance sheet. While an

    analyst labeled it as a vanity purchase, some experts opined that it would have made better sense had

    Wanda invested the same amount in creating a dominant presence in the high-growth Asia/Pacific market.

    THEKAROFILMDEAL,2012

    In December 2012, a consortium comprising of Baring Vostok Private Equity, UFG Private Equity and the

    Russian Direct Investment Fund acquired a controlling stake in Karo Film, which is one of the top three

    movie theater chains in Russia. Paul Heth, a highly experienced and reputed industry figure, was named

    the CEO of Karo Film. The investment was done with an aim to strengthen Karo Films market position

    through upgrades to exhibition technology, enhance offerings on concessions stands and improve

    efficiency. The investors also pumped in an additional $100mn to implement the proposed development.

    Industry sources cited that the planned space expansion at Karo Film would result in the largest expansion

    implemented in the Russian cinema industry.

    THEVUE-OMERS+AIMC DEAL,$1.5BN,2013

    OMERS Private Equity Inc. and Alberta Investment Management Corp. announced the acquisition of Vue

    Entertainment, Europes leading cinema operator, for $1.5bn in June 2013. The deal was completed in

    September 2013. Doughty Hanson & Co had purchased Vue in 2010 from the companys management and

    an investment fund named Och-Ziff Capital Management Group for $730mn. Since then, Vue had

    sharpened its focused on growth through various strategic acquisitions across Europe, which helped it

    nearly double its screen count from 678 to 1,321 across 146 cinemas. A strengthened balance sheet as a

    result of the capital infusion, and an already leading position in the market further increased Vues

    financial ability to harness growth opportunities in Europe, both organic as well as inorganic.

    THECINEMACITY-CINEWORLDDEAL,$0.8BN,2014

    In January 2014, Cineworld Group acquired Poland-based Cinema City International for a consideration of

    503.4mn ($825mn) in a mixed stock-and-cash deal. Cineworld paid 272mn in cash and issued 24.9%

    equity of the combined entity (worth 231.4mn at that time), and launched a 110mn rights issue to part-

    finance the acquisition. Cinema City operates movie theaters in Israel and Central and Eastern Europe and

    has 966 screens in 99 multiplexes. The acquisition gives Cineworld access to attractive movie markets in

    the CEE region which has low multiplex penetration. The combined entity will be Europes second largest

    movie theater chain with 1,852 screens across 201 locations. This deal followed Vue Entertainments

    acquisition of the Polish multiplex operator, Multikino, for 48mn ($65.3mn).

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    13/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |13

    TABLE 4:DEAL BREAKDOWN BY REGION,2009TO 2014YTD

    Source: Capital IQ, *YTD

    By geography, the global merger/acquisition activity was largely concentrated in the developed markets in

    the last five years, with the U.S./Canada region being most active in the recent past. In the region,

    consolidation activity has continually increased over last five years, with the region recording the highest

    number of deals across all geographies every year from 2010 onwards. We believe that an attractive

    interest rate climate and improving investor confidence due to traces of economic betterment fostered

    deal activity in the region. In Europe, deal activity was largely consistent over the last five years, with an

    average of 12-14 deals per year despite the tough economic climate and the prevalent debt crisis. 2014was no different, with U.S./Canada and Europe witnessing most of the deal activity so far, with the sole

    high-value transaction being executed in Europe.

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    14/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |14

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    15/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |15

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    16/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |16

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    17/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |17

    Source: Capital IQ (in $ millions except multiples)

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    18/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |18

    PRIVATE PLACEMENTS

    TABLE 5:PRIVATE PLACEMENTS SUMMARY,2009TO 2014YTD

    Source: Capital IQ, *YTD

    From 2009-2014 (YTD), the total funds raised from private placements in the movie exhibition business

    reached $5bn, with deal activity led mainly by the Asia-Pacific region. Of the 47 deals in the last five years,

    32 deals were by entities in Asia-Pacific. We believe that an uncertain equity market and tighter lending

    environment given worries of slowing economic growth could have prompted players to opt for private

    investments. Each year, the composition was similar: a couple of sizeable debt placements, and varioussmall-sized equity placements.

    The year 2009 was the largest in terms of deal value, comprising 30% of the total placements since 2009,

    and was dominated by private placements in corporate debt of U.S. companies. All of the debt offerings

    during the year were issued with an aim of refinancing existing debt and/or extending the debt maturities.

    The largest offering completed was by AMC Entertainment which raised a gross of $600mn through senior

    notes at 8.75% per annum due 2019 to complete the repayment of its $250mn senior notes bearing an

    interest rate of 8.675% due 2012. With a similar purpose, Cinemark raised a gross of $475mn at 8.625% to

    finance the repurchase of its more expensive 9.75% senior discount notes, while Regal Cinemas

    Corporation raised $400mn to pay off some of its credit facilities.

    In 2010, AMC Entertainment issued another $600mn debt offering, the proceeds of which it used to pay

    back $325mn of its 9.75% Senior Subordinated Notes due 2020, as well as $240.8mn of the 12% Senior

    Discount Notes due 2014 issued by its owner, Marquee Holdings. The remaining deals during the year

    were very small (average deal size of $25mn), and were largely concentrated in China.

    Private placement activity improved in 2011, and peaked in terms of deal volume (28% of total). The

    prevalent recessionary environment in the U.S. as well as the debt crisis in the Eurozone had made the

    public markets unreceptive, and companies were fearful of a poor response to public offerings in such an

    atmosphere. These circumstances prompted theater operators to issue private debt offerings. The largest

    offering was completed by Odeon & UCI Finco plc, a leading British cinema operator, which included

    Senior Secured Notes worth 300mn ($485mn) at 9.0%, and Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes worth

    200mn ($282mn), both due 2018. The company raised the funds for i) refinancing existing debt to reduce

    the burden of interest payments on the bottom-line, and, ii) strengthening its financial position with an

    aim to expand its geographical reach across Europe as well as other high-growth movie exhibition markets.

    The company had initially planned an IPO to raise the funds; however, it used a private placement, likely

    due to the weakness in global equity markets during that time. Similarly, Cinemark raised $200mn in June

    2011 at 7.375%, to pay back its term loan of $157mn and planned to utilize the rest for general business

    purposes. Among equity funding, a key deal was an investment of $69mn by Tencent Holdings in Huayi

    Brothers Media Corporation (both based in China) in an effort to diversify the formers presence in the

    fast-growing Chinese entertainment industry.

    While the total funds raised in 2012 were lesser than those in 2011, the year was particularly important

    because of the change in rationale of raising the funds. Until 2011, the key broader rationale behind

    corporate debt offerings was to reduce interest burdens. In 2012, companies borrowed debt not only to

    retire expensive debt but also to fund their inorganic expansion plans. In December 2012, Cinemark

    completed the issue of $400mn senior notes due in 2022 to repay existing debt and to acquire 32 theater

    locations from Rave Real Property Holdco, LLC for $240mn. The acquisition helped Cinemark achieve cost

    synergies, as a larger footprint improved its negotiating power with concession vendors and provided the

    company with a larger number of venues for on-screen advertising revenue. In another deal, Carmike

    Cinemas issued bonds worth $210mn in April 2012 to replace an existing loan with strict covenants

    allowing for more funds for capital expenditures and bolt-on acquisitions.

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    19/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |19

    A similar trend was also evident in the equity space. The largest equity deal in 2012 was the investment in

    Russia-based Karo Film by a consortium of investors in December, which included an additional $100mn to

    finance working capital requirements and support the expansion of its screen network in the next three

    years. In another deal, U.K.-based Cineworld Group completed a private placement of 6.4mn equity shares

    in December 2012, raising 16m ($25mn). The Group employed the proceeds to partly fund its acquisitionof Picturehouse Cinemas, which it purchased for 47m ($76mn) the same year, the remaining 31mn

    being funded by existing debt facilities. The acquisition added 60 screens across 21 locations to

    Cineworlds existing network, and also added its distribution arm, Picturehouse Entertainment, to its

    business, providing a degree of vertical integration. Of note is the fact that Picturehouse Cinemas was the

    first major theater chain in the U.K. to have upgraded its entire screen network to digital projection.

    The year 2013 witnessed a dip in private placement activity, most likely due to an improvement in global

    equity markets and the reduction in uncertainty over the economic growth potential of emerging markets.

    Nonetheless, companies remained keen to take advantage of the sustained low interest rate environment

    to extend the debt maturities and access cheaper funding. The biggest debt placement was Cinemarks

    $530mn issue of 4.875% Senior Notes due 2023 to pay back the existing Senior Notes of $470mn (issued in

    June 2009), which bore an interest rate of 8.625% and were due in 2019. In equity, the largest placement

    was achieved by Indias leading premium multiplex chain, PVR Limited, which received $47.5mn from

    Multiples Alternate Asset Management Private Limited and existing investor L Capital Eco Ltd. (the PE arm

    of luxury behemoth LVMH) to fund its acquisition of its key competitor, Cinemax (discussed above). So farin 2014, the private placement space has witnessed two deals, that of Brazilian A Rede Cinesystem

    Cinemas raising $17mn, and SMI Corp raising $15mn.

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    20/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |20

    Source: Capital IQ (in $ millions)

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    21/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |21

    CAPITAL RAISE:PUBLIC DEBT OFFERINGS

    CHART 18:DEAL VOLUME,20092014YTD CHART 19:DEAL VALUE ($MN),20092014YTD

    Source: Capital IQ, *YTD Source: Capital IQ, *YTD

    In the last five years, there were 15 disclosed public debt offerings in the global movie exhibition industry

    amounting to a total of $2.6bn. Of these, the U.S./Canada region had 8 offerings and Asia-Pacific witnessed

    6 offerings, with the remaining offer issued in Europe. In terms of value also, the U.S./Canada region wasfar ahead, with the total offerings amounting to $2.3bn. The offering in Europe was sized $100mn, while

    those in Asia-Pacific amounted to $184mn. A sharp disparity in the average debt offering within regions is

    evident: although Asia-Pacific comprised 40% of the total deals, it made up for just 7% of the total debt

    raised. In contrast, the U.S./Canada region comprised 53% of the deals but formed 89% of the total debt

    offering value.

    The year 2009 saw no public debt offerings by movie exhibitors, as these players preferred to opt for

    private placements considering the conservative sentiment prevailing in public markets. In 2010, the

    overall offering size was recorded at $301mn for 2 deals. The major offering was by Regal Entertainment

    Group ($275mn in August) to refinance expensive credit and secure funds for other corporate purposes.

    The second one was issued by the Korean company CJ CGV Co Limited, which raised $26.5mn in October

    for working capital financing. The activity in 2011 was once again led by Regal Entertainment Group,

    raising $156.8mn in January 2011 and another $104.5mn in February 2011, both at an interest rate of

    9.125%, to pay back the more expensive debt on its books.

    In 2012, the offer rationales remained largely unchanged. Two Asian companies, CJ CGV Co Limited

    ($26mn in June) and Thailand-based Major Cineplex Group ($31mn in August) successfully raised money

    with similar purposes. However, the biggest offering was that of Belgium theater operator Kinepolis

    Group, which raised approximately $100mn in March 2012. The significance of the deal was that, apart

    from the debt repayment, Kinepolis had raised the funds to be employed for capital expenditures and

    financing of strategic acquisitions. The indication was an important positive, considering the economic

    slump in the region.

    2013 witnessed a revival in public debt offerings, as companies sought to take advantage of the sustained

    low interest rate environment to extend the debt maturities and access cheaper funding. In May, Regal

    Entertainment Group issued senior notes worth $250mn at 5.75% due 2023, and used $213.6mn of the

    proceeds to extinguish the debt on its Senior Notes that had an annual interest rate of 9.125%. In addition,

    companies also accessed debt to pursue inorganic growth. In January 2013, Regal Entertainment Group

    issued $250mn worth of Senior Notes at 5.75% per year due 2025 to fund its acquisition of Hollywood

    Theaters. In April 2013, Regal Entertainment Group completed the acquisition of 513 screens across 43locations of Hollywood Theaters for $191mn in cash and also took over the latters lease obligations worth

    $47mn. Similarly, in October 2013, Cineplex issued convertible debentures amounting to $100mn to repay

    the debt utilized for the acquisition of 24 theater locations from Empire Theaters Limited. Cineplex

    completed the acquisition for a consideration of approximately $194mn in October 2013.

    In 2014, companies have continued the trend of the previous year, i.e. refinancing debt to extend

    maturities and lower the interest burden. There have been two such public offerings this year to date. In

    March 2014, Regal Entertainment issued $775mn principal amount senior notes due 2022 with a coupon

    rate of 5.75%. The company planned to use the proceeds from this issue to repay multiple outstanding

    senior notes worth approximately $761mn with coupon rates varying from 8.625% to 9.125% and due

    between 2018 and 2019. Similarly, AMC issued senior notes of $375mn at a coupon rate of 5.875% in

    February 2014 and used the proceeds to repay 8.75% Senior Notes due 2019.

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    22/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |22

    Source: Capital IQ (in $ millions)

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    23/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |23

    TABLE 6:PUBLIC EQUITY OFFERINGS SUMMARY,20092014YTD

    Source: Capital IQ, *YTD

    Out of the public offers executed since 2009, almost two thirds by volume were equity offers. In all, $2.6bn

    was raised by the movie exhibition industry via equity over the last five years. By geography, Asia-Pacific

    and U.S./Canada led the activity, collectively comprising almost 90% of the total equity offer volume and

    more than 90% of the total offer value. The majority of the activity was concentrated in Asia Pacific and

    U.S./Canada because these regions are the biggest markets for movies, Asia Pacific by admissions and

    movies produced, and U.S./Canada by box office revenue. Europe, another major region for the movie

    industry, saw the remaining three offers. Latin America and Africa, in comparison, are comparatively

    smaller markets on a global scale, and saw no public offers after 2008. Contrary to the trend in the

    mergers/ acquisitions, a significant proportion of the equity offers during the last five years (36%) crossed

    the $100mn mark.

    In terms of total offer value, the equity public offer market saw falling numbers from 2009 to 2012, similar

    to the trend in offer volumes. With seven offers, the equity public offer market was most active in 2009. In

    the period under consideration, 2009 also led in terms of total offer value with $592.07mn raised, closely

    followed by 2013 at $552.3mn. The year was characterized by the Cineplex Inc. IPO which collected

    $152mn, and was carried out to facilitate an exit of investors. In 2010, the total offer value went down in

    the same measure as the number of offers, as the average offer value for the two years remained nearly

    the same. The offer volume declined significantly in 2011. However, the year delivered the highest average

    and median offer values during 2009-2012, on the back of two offers by Cinemark Holdings each sized at

    approximately $200mn each. The total value of public equity offers fell drastically in 2012, primarily due to

    the uncertainty around the globe due to the European sovereign debt crisis. With confidence in the equitymarkets growing, equity offers recovered spectacularly in 2013, as the number of offers grew 66% and the

    total offer value went up almost seven times.

    2014 shows that the momentum for equity offerings started in 2013 is continuing. In just three months,

    the movie exhibition industry has raised almost the same amount of money as was raised in the entire

    year of 2013. There have been two large offers to date. Poly Culture Group raised $331mn through its IPO

    and the Cineworld rights issue which was carried out to partly pay for its acquisition of Cinema City.

    Because both offers to date have been big, the average and median offer value for the year to date are the

    highest since 2009.

    An interesting point to note for years 2012 onwards is the difference in the rationale of companies in

    developed economies and emerging economies for raising money through equity offers. With the

    economy showing signs of recovery, companies in developed markets such as U.S./ Canada and Europe

    raised money mainly for expansion (both organic as well as inorganic) e.g. IPOs of Everyman Media Group

    and Digital Cinema Destinations and the rights issue by Cineworld Group. Conversely, money raised in AsiaPacific region was primarily for debt repayment, e.g. rights issues of Reliance Mediaworks ($94mn in 2013)

    and Fame India ($18mn in 2012). This can be attributed to the high interest rates prevailing in India due to

    monetary tightening by the central bank to combat inflation.

    Over the last five years, the market for IPOs has been largely stable. Eight companies in the sector

    completed their IPOs during this period, raising almost $800mn. A majority of the IPOs were for expansion,

    including the Poly Culture Group IPO of $331mn. Despite this, two of biggest issues in the period were for

    debt repayment (AMC) and to facilitate an exit for investors (Cineplex). Geographically, the split is similar

    to total equity offerings with most of the offers being in U.S./Canada or in Asia Pacific with the lone offer in

    Europe in 2013. The year 2013 had the highest total offer value raised via IPOs, mainly from the AMC

    Entertainment offer ($369mn), followed by 2009 at $331mn.

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    24/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |24

    The FPO space was also fairly active, with five issues completed during 2009-2013 to raise $410mn, all of

    which happened in U.S./Canada. Carmike Cinemas and IMAX Corp were the most active with FPOs. While

    Carmike Cinemas raised a total $133mn in 2012 and 2013 (purpose unspecified), IMAX Corp. raised

    $120mn in 2009 purely for debt repayment. Digital Cinema Destinations also had a FPO issue in 2013, 18

    months after its IPO in 2012 (purpose unspecified). In contrast to U.S./Canada, Asia Pacific region saw fiverights issues since 2009 and a total of $410mn was raised. The biggest rights issues in this period were the

    Cineworld issue, which raised $184mn in 2014 and the Amalgamated Holdings issue of $99mn to build a

    cash position for expansion. Other major issues were Reliance Mediaworks and Fame India, as mentioned

    above.

    It must be noted that Cinemark Holdings was the most active company in the last five years as it

    approached the market 5 times with equity public offers worth $722mn (making up 28% of the total equity

    investment offered in this period). However, all of the equity offers were secondary sales of shares by its

    major investor Madison Dearborn Partners LLC (an LBO investor). Through these offers, Madison Dearborn

    sold more than 38mn shares over three years from 2009-2011 and exited its investment in Cinemark

    completely. Cinemark did not receive any funds from these offers.

    AMCENTERTAINMENT IPO

    AMC Entertainment was acquired by Wanda in May 2012, in a deal that valued AMC Entertainment at

    $2.6bn and Wanda took on $1.9bn of debt to complete the deal. In accordance with terms of theacquisition, Wanda initiated an IPO for AMC in 2013 with the objective of reducing AMCs debt burden of

    over $2.2bn (as of March 2012). In the IPO, 18.4mn AMC shares were offered in a price band of $18-20.

    Including the option to issue an additional 2.6mn shares, AMC was able to issue 21mn shares overall to

    raise $369mn. The price valued AMC Entertainment at $1.7bn at the time of listing. After the issue,

    Wandas shareholding in the company was reduced to 80%. AMC had a good debut on the markets with

    the stock rising 5% on the day of listing. Since listing, the stock has risen a further 10% and currently trades

    around $24, at a 1-year forward P/E multiple of 23x (source: Bloomberg).

    POLY CULTURE GROUP IPO

    Chinese state owned Poly Culture Group is the worlds third-biggest auction house by revenue after

    Sothebys and Christies. It also had business interests in movie exhibition through 31 theaters and 17

    cinemas and generated more than half of its revenues from managing movie theaters. In March 2014, the

    company approached the markets with its IPO, offering to sell 70.7mn new shares and 7.1mn shares

    owned by its parent company in a price band of $28.20-33.00. The response to the issue wasoverwhelming; with the retail tranche oversubscribed 600 times, which allowed the company to sell the

    shares at the upper end of the price band. Poly Culture planned to use half of the funds for its auction

    business and the other half for the movie exhibition business. In line with the response to the IPO, the

    shares were highly sought on the public markets too, and increased 29% on its listing day.

    BONA FILM GROUP AND MIDVALLEY ENTERTAINMENT IPOS

    Bona Film Group is a film producer, distributor and exhibitor in China, and operated 6 theaters at the time

    of the issue. In 2010, Bona filed for an IPO on the NASDAQ Stock Exchange to raise about $80mn by

    offering 11.74mn shares in a price band of $7-8. However, it was actually able to raise $100mn as the issue

    price was decided at $8.5. Midvalley Entertainment is an Indian company that, like Bona, produces and

    distributes movies and operates movie theaters. At the time of its IPO, 65% of its revenues were generated

    from film exhibition. In 2011, Midvalley approached the markets and raised $13mn; however, market

    reactions were slightly negative owing to the companys business being concentrated in the southern part

    of India, and the high pricing of the issue. Proceeds from both issues were specified to be used for business

    expansion purposes.

    RELIANCE MEDIAWORKS AND FAME INDIA RIGHTS ISSUES

    In recent years, companies in India have been trying to deleverage, due to the high interest rates

    prevailing as a result of the central banks efforts to control inflation. In 2013, Reliance MediaWorks came

    up with a rights issue to raise $94mn, offering existing shareholders 13 shares for every 4 held, with the

    proceeds to be used for debt repayment. Initial market reactions to the offer were positive and the stock

    rose as much as 2.7% on the day it was announced, which helped the company raise $91mn from the

    issue. In 2012, Fame India (now a part of Inox Leisure) also launched a rights issue offering its shareholders

    the option to purchase 58 shares for every 100 held by them. Through the issue, Fame tried to raise

    $18mn by issuing 20.3mn shares with an intention to reduce debt. Once again, the market reaction to

    news of the issue was positive, and the stock ended 5% up on the day of announcement.

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    25/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |25

    Source: Capital IQ (in $ millions)

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    26/27

    Cinema Operator IndustrySector Review

    May 2014

    www.redcapgroup.com Page |26

    ADDITIONAL NOTES1THE REDWOOD NORTH AMERICA CINEMA EXHIBITORS INDEX

    The Redwood North America Cinema Exhibitors Index is a market capitalization weighted index, which

    purely tracks movie exhibitors. Currently, there is no other index available that serves this purpose. This

    index comprises of the top companies in U.S./Canada engaged primarily in the business of operating movietheaters. The current constituents of the index are: AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC:US), Carmike

    Cinemas Inc. (CKEC:US), Cinemark Holdings Inc. (CNK:US), Cineplex Inc. (CGX:CN), IMAX Corp. (IMX:CN),

    Reading International Inc. (RDI:US) and Regal Entertainment Group (RGC:US). All the data has been

    sourced from Capital IQ.

    2THE REDWOOD GLOBAL CINEMA EXHIBITORS INDEX

    The Redwood Global Cinema Exhibitors Index is a market capitalization weighted index, which tracks

    movie exhibitors across the globe excluding players in the U.S./Canada region. The current constituents of

    the index are: Cineworld Group plc (LSE:CINE), Kinepolis Group NV (ENXTBR:KIN), Global City Holdings N.V

    (WSE:GCH), AFM Uluslararasi Film Produksiyon A.S. (IBSE:AFMAS), Amalgamated Holdings Limited

    (ASX:AHD), CJ CGV Co., Ltd. (KOSE:A079160), Major Cineplex Group Public Company Limited (SET:MAJOR),

    PVR Limited (BSE:532689), Inox Leisure Limited (BSE:532706), Tokyu Recreation Co., Ltd. (TSE:9631) and

    Bona Film Group Limited (NasdaqGS:BONA). All the data has been sourced from Capital IQ.

  • 8/10/2019 Cinema Operator Industry Report May 2014

    27/27