China's future

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  • 1. Chinas Future

2. The End of the OriginalChinese DreamChina is no longer the state as Maointended. 3. Future? Peaceful rise . . . gentle giant act Tom Friedman Slow motion revolution Ian Johnson Rogue economic superpowerPaulKrugman 4. What can go right? Economy & employment Exports & Consumerism in China Standard of living improves Social harmony International respect 5. Hard Work Ahead!High growth?low cost labor =small middle classSlow growth?higher labor costs=larger middle 6. More to do!China must find new sources of growth.Chinese leaders are trying to deflate a realestate bubble. 7. What can go wrong? 8. Population Expansion1.5 billion people by 2030 Approaching zero population growth Due in part to 1979 population control 1-childpolicy Aging population with life expectancyassumed to lengthen by 2030 9. Consequence 2030 Chinas median age will be over 41,higher than Europe or the U.S. In this future China, there would be morethan three senior citizens for each youngchild. 10. Can Growth Continue? 11. Chinas FutureDemographic outlook?Rising nationalism?Aggressiveness?OrPeaceful evolution?mature international responsibility? 12. Threats Increasing wages for blue collar workers. Slow economic growth. Managing the transition from a lowerincome to a higher income society. World Bank report 2012 13. Social Inequality"When China's leader Deng Xiaoping said, 'Toget rich is glorious,' (Did) he imagine that thegap between rich and poor in China couldhave serious political implications."Zeng Xiangquan, a labor economist at People's University. 14. The Happiness FactorDespite much lower levels of income, lifesatisfaction among urban Chinese wasalmost as high as in the developed world.Richard A. Easterlin 15. QuestionsCan China continue to prosper while limitingfreedoms?Will Chinas remain content by offering economicfreedom?Will China use the free market to satisfy itsenergy needs?Will China become aggressive and take whatenergy it needs?