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China's Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program: Monitoring, evaluation & future direction
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Transcript of China's Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program: Monitoring, evaluation & future direction
China’s Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program: Monitoring, evaluation & future directions
Monday, June 2nd, 2014
Wuhan, China
CIFOR-FEDRC joint research project
Nick Hogarth: [email protected]
Project aims & objectives
Support FEDRC’s ongoing M&E of socioeconomic & environmental impacts of the CCFP.
To develop a more rigorous methodology for program impact assessment (i.e. M & E), to identify gaps/shortcomings & feasible approaches to address them.
- Assess & report on FEDRC’s CCFP monitoring program
- Identify gaps & suggest new questions & approaches
To use rigorous econometric techniques to analyze FEDRC data to estimate program impacts, formulate a more comprehensive policy model, & better anticipate future trends under different scenarios.
Project aims & objectives
To contribute to policy development for the program beyond 2016.
Disseminate results of CCFP research through high quality international publications & other outlets.
Share knowledge & expertise from the CCFP & FEDRC’s experience in the region & globally.
Focus of today’s presentation
Analyses of existing FEDRC datasets
Fieldwork program
Collection of new data, new research & analyses
Next steps & project expansion
Dissemination, knowledge sharing
Assessment of FEDRC’s monitoring & evaluation program
Assessment of FEDRC’s monitoring & evaluation program
Identify gaps in survey design, methods & implementation
- help fill the gaps.
Achieved by a combination of fieldwork & assessment of the data to determine additional data collection needs.
Status/outputs:
- Fieldwork conducted to pilot test M&E assessment methods.
- Additional questions added to the 2014 survey instrument.
- Expanded fieldwork program planned for 2014.
Assessment of FEDRC’s monitoring & evaluation program
Household CCFP land site inspection in BaoshangVillage, Longlin County, Guangxi. Photo by Nick Hogarth
Xie Chen (FEDRC) conducting ‘Monitored household surveys’ in Pingguo County, Guangxi. Photo by Nick Hogarth
Pilot testing the Household CCFP site inspection survey in Long Se Village, Ping Guo County, Guangxi. Photo by Nick Hogarth
Analyses of existing FEDRC datasets
12+ year panel data
>12 years’ data: 1,165 households, 100 counties, 22 provinces
Initial focus on the Southwest
Map by Wang Jiang
FEDRC-CCFP monitoring sites & project focus provinces
Map by Wang Jiang
Analyses of existing FEDRC datasets
12+ year panel data
>12 years’ data, 1,165 households, 100 counties, 22 provinces
Initial focus on the Southwest
Status/outputs
- Data has been assessed, cleaned & organised
- Variables defined
- Translated into English
- Analyses of 4 southwest provinces underway
- Project-wide analyses to follow
Analyses of existing FEDRC datasets
2010 ‘Student’ dataset
- Cross-sectional data set: 2,808 households, 419 villages, 228 townships, 132 counties, 24 provinces.
- Unique, one-time data set collected by FEDRC & 125 Beijing Forestry University students in 2010
- The most representative sample of CCFP households
Status/outputs
- Data has been assessed, cleaned & organised
- Variables defined
- Translated into English
- Preliminary nationwide analyses conducted
- First academic paper in review
Interval regression analyses used to explain household-reported survival rate of trees planted on CCFP enrolled land using regional indicators, household characteristics & local institutions as explanatory variables
Collection of new data, new research & analyses
Additional data collected through the fieldwork program to complement existing FEDRC datasets
GIS/Remote Sensing work to assess land-cover change, biomass & carbon contribution of the CCFP.
Additional data collected from questions added to the FEDRC survey
Systematic Review of the CCFP literature in both English & Chinese
- Identify gaps in the existing evidence base
- Focus our project research questions
- Publication of Protocol & Systematic Map
Fieldwork: General aims
a. To evaluate, & provide input to improve the FEDRC’s system used to monitor & evaluate the program; identifying gaps in survey design, methods & analyses.
b. To gain a better understanding of how the FEDRC data was collected (i.e. methods).
c. Validate the data quality with on-the-ground observations & cross-checking surveys
d. Collect additional data needed for our research project
Six survey instruments were developed & tested in two FEDRC CCFP monitored counties during pilot fieldwork in Guangxi in November 2013.
The six survey instruments are:
1. Sloping land key informant survey.
2. County-level survey.
3. Administrative Village Leader Survey.
4. Enumerator survey.
5. Monitored household survey.
6. Household CCFP site inspection survey.
Household CCFP land site inspection inBaoshang Village, Longlin County, Guangxi.
Photo by Nick Hogarth
Fieldwork: Guangxi pilot testing
Location of the FEDRC-CCFP monitored
counties & pilot fieldwork sites, Guangxi
Map by Wang Jiang
Dissemination, knowledge sharing
Promotion of the CCFP and the FEDRC-CIFOR work through international & domestic workshops (Beijing, Kunming)
Presentation of project results at international events:
- “International Symposium on Forest & Landscape Restoration in Northeast Asia” 14-16 October, 2013, Beijing.
- “Evaluating Forest Conservation initiatives: New tools and policy needs” 10-12 December, 2013, Barcelona.
- “Forests Asia”, May 2014, Jakarta, Indonesia.
Translation & dissemination of key Chinese forestry documents
- FEDRC 2013 Annual Report of Monitoring & Assessment of Socioeconomic impacts of key forestry programs
Media outreach: website, blogs, youtube etc.
Expand the fieldwork program
Complete 4-province and national-level analyses
Expand the GIS/RS work
Multiple publications in both English & Chinese
Inform policy development
Expand the project beyond China: Lessons from China
- Sloping Lands in Transition project (SLANT)
More funding, more personnel
Next steps & project expansion
Thanks!
Questions, comments?