China's Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program: Monitoring, evaluation & future direction

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Transcript of China's Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program: Monitoring, evaluation & future direction

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Chinas Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program: Monitoring, evaluation & future directionsMonday, June 2nd, 2014 Wuhan, China

CIFOR-FEDRC joint research projectNick Hogarth: n.hogarth@cgiar.org

Project officially started in June, 2013, with signing of MoU & LoA in Beijing.DFID supportedPart of CIFORs increasing attention to China

1Project aims & objectivesSupport FEDRCs ongoing M&E of socioeconomic & environmental impacts of the CCFP.To develop a more rigorous methodology for program impact assessment (i.e. M & E), to identify gaps/shortcomings & feasible approaches to address them. - Assess & report on FEDRCs CCFP monitoring program - Identify gaps & suggest new questions & approachesTo use rigorous econometric techniques to analyze FEDRC data to estimate program impacts, formulate a more comprehensive policy model, & better anticipate future trends under different scenarios. To transfer knowledge from the CCFP & FEDRCs monitoring program through CIFORs Sloping Lands in Transition (SLANT) Project

2Project aims & objectivesTo contribute to policy development for the program beyond 2016. Disseminate results of CCFP research through high quality international publications & other outlets.Share knowledge & expertise from the CCFP & FEDRCs experience in the region & globally.

To transfer knowledge from the CCFP & FEDRCs monitoring program through CIFORs Sloping Lands in Transition (SLANT) Project

3Focus of todays presentation Analyses of existing FEDRC datasetsFieldwork program

Collection of new data, new research & analysesNext steps & project expansionDissemination, knowledge sharingAssessment of FEDRCs monitoring & evaluation program Assessment of FEDRCs monitoring & evaluation program Identify gaps in survey design, methods & implementationhelp fill the gaps.Achieved by a combination of fieldwork & assessment of the data to determine additional data collection needs.Status/outputs: Fieldwork conducted to pilot test M&E assessment methods.Additional questions added to the 2014 survey instrument.Expanded fieldwork program planned for 2014.Assessment of FEDRCs monitoring & evaluation program

Household CCFP land site inspection in Baoshang Village, Longlin County, Guangxi. Photo by Nick Hogarth

Xie Chen (FEDRC) conducting Monitored household surveys in Pingguo County, Guangxi. Photo by Nick Hogarth

Pilot testing the Household CCFP site inspection survey in Long Se Village, Ping Guo County, Guangxi. Photo by Nick Hogarth

Analyses of existing FEDRC datasets12+ year panel data

>12 years data: 1,165 households, 100 counties, 22 provincesInitial focus on the SouthwestMap by Wang Jiang

FEDRC-CCFP monitoring sites & project focus provinces

Map by Wang Jiang Analyses of existing FEDRC datasets12+ year panel data

>12 years data, 1,165 households, 100 counties, 22 provincesInitial focus on the SouthwestStatus/outputsData has been assessed, cleaned & organised Variables definedTranslated into EnglishAnalyses of 4 southwest provinces underwayProject-wide analyses to followAnalyses of existing FEDRC datasets2010 Student dataset

Cross-sectional data set: 2,808 households, 419 villages, 228 townships, 132 counties, 24 provinces. Unique, one-time data set collected by FEDRC & 125 Beijing Forestry University students in 2010The most representative sample of CCFP householdsStatus/outputsData has been assessed, cleaned & organised Variables definedTranslated into EnglishPreliminary nationwide analyses conductedFirst academic paper in review

Interval regression analyses used to explain household-reported survival rate of trees planted on CCFP enrolled land using regional indicators, household characteristics & local institutions as explanatory variablesInterval regression analyses used to explain household-reported survival rate of trees planted on CCFP enrolled land - regional indicators - household characteristics - implementation regime & local institutions: education, experience, access to information, perceptions/satisfaction - other relevant local characteristics: implementation period, inspection characteristics, Hh understanding of the policy, subsidy paymentsWe find that households with more available labor & more forestry experience manage trees betterlocal implementation regime e.g. the degree of prior consultation with participants and regular monitoring - has a strong positive effect on reported survivorship.

12Collection of new data, new research & analysesAdditional data collected through the fieldwork program to complement existing FEDRC datasetsGIS/Remote Sensing work to assess land-cover change, biomass & carbon contribution of the CCFP.

Additional data collected from questions added to the FEDRC survey

Systematic Review of the CCFP literature in both English & Chinese Identify gaps in the existing evidence baseFocus our project research questionsPublication of Protocol & Systematic Map

Fieldwork: General aimsa. To evaluate, & provide input to improve the FEDRCs system used to monitor & evaluate the program; identifying gaps in survey design, methods & analyses.b. To gain a better understanding of how the FEDRC data was collected (i.e. methods).c. Validate the data quality with on-the-ground observations & cross-checking surveys d. Collect additional data needed for our research projectSix survey instruments were developed & tested in two FEDRC CCFP monitored counties during pilot fieldwork in Guangxi in November 2013.The six survey instruments are: 1.Sloping land key informant survey. 2.County-level survey. 3.Administrative Village Leader Survey. 4.Enumerator survey. 5.Monitored household survey. 6.Household CCFP site inspection survey.

Household CCFP land site inspection in Baoshang Village, Longlin County, Guangxi. Photo by Nick Hogarth Fieldwork: Guangxi pilot testing

Location of the FEDRC-CCFP monitored counties & pilot fieldwork sites, GuangxiMap by Wang Jiang Dissemination, knowledge sharing

Promotion of the CCFP and the FEDRC-CIFOR work through international & domestic workshops (Beijing, Kunming)Presentation of project results at international events:

International Symposium on Forest & Landscape Restoration in Northeast Asia 14-16 October, 2013, Beijing.Evaluating Forest Conservation initiatives: New tools and policy needs 10-12 December, 2013, Barcelona.Forests Asia, May 2014, Jakarta, Indonesia.Translation & dissemination of key Chinese forestry documentsFEDRC 2013 Annual Report of Monitoring & Assessment of Socioeconomic impacts of key forestry programs

Media outreach: website, blogs, youtube etc.18Expand the fieldwork program

Complete 4-province and national-level analyses

Expand the GIS/RS work

Multiple publications in both English & Chinese

Inform policy development

Expand the project beyond China: Lessons from ChinaSloping Lands in Transition project (SLANT)

More funding, more personnelNext steps & project expansion

Thanks!

Questions, comments?