China's Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program: Monitoring, evaluation & future direction

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China’s Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program: Monitoring, evaluation & future directions Monday, June 2nd, 2014 Wuhan, China CIFOR-FEDRC joint research project Nick Hogarth: [email protected]

Transcript of China's Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program: Monitoring, evaluation & future direction

Page 1: China's Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program: Monitoring, evaluation & future direction

China’s Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program: Monitoring, evaluation & future directions

Monday, June 2nd, 2014

Wuhan, China

CIFOR-FEDRC joint research project

Nick Hogarth: [email protected]

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Project aims & objectives

Support FEDRC’s ongoing M&E of socioeconomic & environmental impacts of the CCFP.

To develop a more rigorous methodology for program impact assessment (i.e. M & E), to identify gaps/shortcomings & feasible approaches to address them.

- Assess & report on FEDRC’s CCFP monitoring program

- Identify gaps & suggest new questions & approaches

To use rigorous econometric techniques to analyze FEDRC data to estimate program impacts, formulate a more comprehensive policy model, & better anticipate future trends under different scenarios.

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Project aims & objectives

To contribute to policy development for the program beyond 2016.

Disseminate results of CCFP research through high quality international publications & other outlets.

Share knowledge & expertise from the CCFP & FEDRC’s experience in the region & globally.

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Focus of today’s presentation

Analyses of existing FEDRC datasets

Fieldwork program

Collection of new data, new research & analyses

Next steps & project expansion

Dissemination, knowledge sharing

Assessment of FEDRC’s monitoring & evaluation program

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Assessment of FEDRC’s monitoring & evaluation program

Identify gaps in survey design, methods & implementation

- help fill the gaps.

Achieved by a combination of fieldwork & assessment of the data to determine additional data collection needs.

Status/outputs:

- Fieldwork conducted to pilot test M&E assessment methods.

- Additional questions added to the 2014 survey instrument.

- Expanded fieldwork program planned for 2014.

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Assessment of FEDRC’s monitoring & evaluation program

Household CCFP land site inspection in BaoshangVillage, Longlin County, Guangxi. Photo by Nick Hogarth

Xie Chen (FEDRC) conducting ‘Monitored household surveys’ in Pingguo County, Guangxi. Photo by Nick Hogarth

Pilot testing the Household CCFP site inspection survey in Long Se Village, Ping Guo County, Guangxi. Photo by Nick Hogarth

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Analyses of existing FEDRC datasets

12+ year panel data

>12 years’ data: 1,165 households, 100 counties, 22 provinces

Initial focus on the Southwest

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Map by Wang Jiang

FEDRC-CCFP monitoring sites & project focus provinces

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Map by Wang Jiang

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Analyses of existing FEDRC datasets

12+ year panel data

>12 years’ data, 1,165 households, 100 counties, 22 provinces

Initial focus on the Southwest

Status/outputs

- Data has been assessed, cleaned & organised

- Variables defined

- Translated into English

- Analyses of 4 southwest provinces underway

- Project-wide analyses to follow

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Analyses of existing FEDRC datasets

2010 ‘Student’ dataset

- Cross-sectional data set: 2,808 households, 419 villages, 228 townships, 132 counties, 24 provinces.

- Unique, one-time data set collected by FEDRC & 125 Beijing Forestry University students in 2010

- The most representative sample of CCFP households

Status/outputs

- Data has been assessed, cleaned & organised

- Variables defined

- Translated into English

- Preliminary nationwide analyses conducted

- First academic paper in review

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Interval regression analyses used to explain household-reported survival rate of trees planted on CCFP enrolled land using regional indicators, household characteristics & local institutions as explanatory variables

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Collection of new data, new research & analyses

Additional data collected through the fieldwork program to complement existing FEDRC datasets

GIS/Remote Sensing work to assess land-cover change, biomass & carbon contribution of the CCFP.

Additional data collected from questions added to the FEDRC survey

Systematic Review of the CCFP literature in both English & Chinese

- Identify gaps in the existing evidence base

- Focus our project research questions

- Publication of Protocol & Systematic Map

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Fieldwork: General aims

a. To evaluate, & provide input to improve the FEDRC’s system used to monitor & evaluate the program; identifying gaps in survey design, methods & analyses.

b. To gain a better understanding of how the FEDRC data was collected (i.e. methods).

c. Validate the data quality with on-the-ground observations & cross-checking surveys

d. Collect additional data needed for our research project

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Six survey instruments were developed & tested in two FEDRC CCFP monitored counties during pilot fieldwork in Guangxi in November 2013.

The six survey instruments are:

1. Sloping land key informant survey.

2. County-level survey.

3. Administrative Village Leader Survey.

4. Enumerator survey.

5. Monitored household survey.

6. Household CCFP site inspection survey.

Household CCFP land site inspection inBaoshang Village, Longlin County, Guangxi.

Photo by Nick Hogarth

Fieldwork: Guangxi pilot testing

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Location of the FEDRC-CCFP monitored

counties & pilot fieldwork sites, Guangxi

Map by Wang Jiang

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Dissemination, knowledge sharing

Promotion of the CCFP and the FEDRC-CIFOR work through international & domestic workshops (Beijing, Kunming)

Presentation of project results at international events:

- “International Symposium on Forest & Landscape Restoration in Northeast Asia” 14-16 October, 2013, Beijing.

- “Evaluating Forest Conservation initiatives: New tools and policy needs” 10-12 December, 2013, Barcelona.

- “Forests Asia”, May 2014, Jakarta, Indonesia.

Translation & dissemination of key Chinese forestry documents

- FEDRC 2013 Annual Report of Monitoring & Assessment of Socioeconomic impacts of key forestry programs

Media outreach: website, blogs, youtube etc.

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Expand the fieldwork program

Complete 4-province and national-level analyses

Expand the GIS/RS work

Multiple publications in both English & Chinese

Inform policy development

Expand the project beyond China: Lessons from China

- Sloping Lands in Transition project (SLANT)

More funding, more personnel

Next steps & project expansion

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Thanks!

Questions, comments?