Chapter 8 Charts: Predicting Real Estateptmbook.yardeni.com/pub/ptmcctchap8realestate.pdf ·...

Predicting the Markets:Chapter 8 Charts:

Predicting Real EstateYardeni Research, Inc.

August 3, 2017

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Mali Quintana480-664-1333

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

August 3, 2017 / Chapter 8 Charts: Predicting Real Estate www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Predicting Real Estate 1-22

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP(billion 2009 dollars, saar, ratio scale)

Q2

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 1.

68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

HOUSING COMPLETIONS(million units, saar)

Jun

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Census Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 2.

Predicting Real Estate

Page 1 / August 3, 2017 / Chapter 8 Charts: Predicting Real Estate www.yardeni.com


59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21.3

.5

.7

.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.9

.3

.5

.7

.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.9

HOUSING STARTS & HOUSING COMPLETIONS(million units, saar)

Jun

Housing StartsHousing Completions


yardeni.com

Figure 3.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

HOUSING STARTS & BUILDING PERMITS(million units, saar)

Jun

Housing StartsBuilding Permits


yardeni.com

Figure 4.




59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

HOUSING STARTS(million units, saar)

Jun

TotalSingle-Family


yardeni.com

Figure 5.

64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22.0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

.0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

HOUSING STARTS: MULTI-FAMILY(million units, saar)

Jun


yardeni.com

Figure 6.




68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 200

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

Jun

NEW HOME SALES & HOUSING COMPLETIONS: SINGLE-FAMILY(thousand units, saar)

Single-Family HousingCompletionsNew Home Sales

Source: Census Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 7.

68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 201.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

EXISTING HOME SALES(million units, saar)

Jun

Existing Home SalesTotalSingle-Family

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: National Association of Realtors.

yardeni.com

Figure 8.




1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 202020

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

2015

2015

MEDIAN AGE AT FIRST MARRIAGE(years)

MenWomen

Source: Current Population Reports.

yardeni.com

Figure 9.

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 1815

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

2012

HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE(percent)

Married CouplesTotalWithout ChildrenWith Children

Source: Census Bureau Current Population Surveys, Annual Social & Economic Supplement.

yardeni.com

Figure 10.




68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

HOUSING COMPLETIONS & BUILDING PERMITS(million units, saar)

Jun

CompletionsBuilding Permits


yardeni.com

Figure 11.

68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

Jun

EXISTING vs. NEW SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES(million units, saar)

Single-Family Home SalesExistingNew

Source: Census Bureau and National Association of Realtors.

yardeni.com

Figure 12.




83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 210

1

2

3

4

0

1

2

3

4

Jun

Jun

EXISTING & NEW SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES FOR SALE(million units)

Homes For SalesExisting (nsa)New (sa)


yardeni.com

Figure 13.

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

11.5

12.5

13.5

14.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

11.5

12.5

13.5

14.5

Jun

HOME SUPPLY: MONTHS ON THE MARKET

* Homes for sale divided by sales.

Months’ Supply ofSingle-Family Homes*

Existing (nsa)New (sa)


yardeni.com

Figure 14.




2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jun

Jul

HOUSING MARKET INDEX (HOMEBUILDERS) & PENDING HOME SALES INDEX (REALTORS)

Pending Home Sales Index (2001 = 100)

Housing Market Index (all good = 100)*

* For each diffusion index, when all respondents answer "good," the index is 100. If all respondents answer "poor," the index is 0. If equal numbers ofrespondents answer "good" and "poor", the index is 50.Source: National Association of Realtors and National Association of Home Builders.

yardeni.com

Figure 15.

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18100

200

300

400

100

200

300

400

Jun

RETAIL SALES: BUILDING MATERIALS, GARDEN EQUIPMENT, & SUPPLY DEALERS(billion dollars, saar)

Source: Bureau of the Census.

yardeni.com

Figure 16.




68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 200

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

Jun

DIY HOUSING CONSTRUCTION: SINGLE-FAMILY COMPLETIONS MINUS NEW HOME SALES(thousand units, saar)

12-ma

Source: Census Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 17.

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

7/28

MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: NEW PURCHASE INDEX(4-week ma, sa)

Source: Mortgage Bankers of America.

yardeni.com

Figure 18.




87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Q1

LOAN DELINQUENCY RATE: ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS(percent, sa)

DelinquenciesReal Estate Loans

yardeni.com

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Figure 19.

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

11.5

12.5

13.5

.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

11.5

12.5

13.5

Q1

LOAN DELINQUENCY RATE: ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS(percent, sa)

DelinquenciesResidential Loans*Commercial Loans**

* Residential real estate loans include loans secured by one- to four-family properties, including home equity lines of credit.** Commercial real estate loans include construction and land development loans, loans secured by multifamily residences, and loans secured by nonfarm,

nonresidential real estate.Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 20.




60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 2040

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

Q2

PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP:COMMERCIAL & HEALTH CARE STRUCTURES(billion 2009 dollars, saar)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 21.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 2020

370

720

1070

142017702120247028203170

20

370

720

1070

142017702120247028203170

COMMERCIAL MORTGAGES(billion dollars outstanding, ratio scale)

Q1

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic ResearchSource: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.

yardeni.com

Figure 22.




2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5FEDERAL FUNDS TARGET RATE & US TREASURY 10-YEAR BOND YIELD: 2000-2009(percent,daily)

US Treasury 10-Year Bond YieldFederal Funds Target Rate

Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.

yardeni.com

Figure 23.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATOR: 2000-2009(yearly percent change)

TotalTotal ExFood & Energy

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 24.




80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2050

100

150

200

250

2

7

12

17

22

27

32

Q1

JunHOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE VALUE & MEDIAN EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOME PRICE(ratio scale)

Real Estate Held by Households(trillion dollars)

Median Existing Single-Family Home Price(thousand dollars, 12-month average)

Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States and National Association of Realtors.

yardeni.com

Figure 25.

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 200

5

10

15

20

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

Q1TOTAL VALUE OF HOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE HOLDINGS & HOME MORTGAGE DEBT(trillion dollars, nsa)

Total Value of HouseholdReal Estate Holdings* (23.5)

Home Mortgage Debt (9.8)

Owners’ Equity inHousehold Real Estate (13.7)

* Home mortgages plus owners equity in household real estate.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.

yardeni.com

Figure 26.




52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Q1

HOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE VALUE & HOME MORTGAGES*(divided by Disposable Personal Income)

Divided by DPI

Home Mortgages

Household Real Estate*Owners’ Equity**

* Total market value of real estate held by households. All types of owner-occupied housing including farm houses and mobile homes, as well as secondhomes that are not rented, vacant homes for sale, and vacant land.

** Value of household real estate minus home mortgages.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.

yardeni.com

Figure 27.

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 2015

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

Q1

HOUSEHOLD OWNERS’ EQUITY IN REAL ESTATE & HOME MORTGAGES(as percent of market value of Household Real Estate*)

Divided by Value of Homes*

Home MortgagesOwners’ Equity**

* Total market value of real estate held by households. All types of owner-occupied housing including farm houses and mobile homes, as well as secondhomes that are not rented, vacant homes for sale, and vacant land.

** Value of household real estate minus home mortgages.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.

yardeni.com

Figure 28.




80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-250

-150

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

1050

1150

1250

1350

-250

-150

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

1050

1150

1250

1350

Q1

HOME MORTGAGE BORROWING(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)


yardeni.com

Figure 29.

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20160

220

280

340

400

460

520

580

640

700

760

820

880

940

1000

1060

1120

1180

160

220

280

340

400

460

520

580

640

700

760

820

880

940

1000

1060

1120

1180

Q1

HOME EQUITY LOANS*(billion dollars, sa)

* Loans made under home equity lines of credit and home equity loans secured by junior liens. Excludes home equity loans held by mortgage companiesand individuals.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.

yardeni.com

Figure 30.




70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 200

1

2

3

4

0

1

2

3

4

Q1

CORPORATE BONDS OUTSTANDING(trillion dollars, nsa)

Financial Sector

Commercial Banking (0.2)ABS Issuers (1.1)

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.

yard

eni.

com

Figure 31.

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

Q1

Q1

HOME MORTGAGES OUTSTANDING*(trillion dollars)

Home Mortgages Held By:US Government Agencies & GSEs**Asset-Backed Security IssuersUS-Chartered Depository Institutions

* Includes home equity loans.** Government-sponsored enterprises plus Agency- and GSE-backed mortgage pools.


yarden

i.com

Figure 32.




2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020.0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

8/2

ASSET-BACKED COMMERCIAL PAPER & FED’S EMERGENCY LIQUIDITY FACILITY(trillion dollars)

Commercial PaperABS IssuersHeld by Fed’sC.P. Funding Facility


yardeni.com

Figure 33.

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-20

0

20

40

60

80

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Q1

ALL FDIC-INSURED INSTITUTIONS: BAD DEBT PROVISIONS & CHARGE-OFFS(billion dollars, nsa)

Provisions for Bad Loans & Charge-OffsProvision for Loan & Lease LossesNet Charge-OffsProvision for Loan & Lease Losses MinusNet Charge-Offs

Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Quarterly Banking Profile.

yardeni.com

Figure 34.




84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Q1ALL FDIC-INSURED INSTITUTIONS: BAD DEBT PROVISIONS & CHARGE-OFFS(cumulative change since 1984, billion dollars)

Provisions for Bad Loans & Charge-OffsProvision for Loan & Lease LossesNet Charge-OffsProvision for Loan & Lease Loses MinusNet Charge-Offs

Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Quarterly Banking Profile.

yardeni.com

Figure 35.

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Q1

FINANCIAL CORPORATIONS NET ISSUANCE OF BONDS & EQUITIES(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Equities (ex-ETFs)Bonds


yardeni.com

Figure 36.




2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-20

-10

0

10

20

-20

-10

0

10

20

May

WORLD EXPORTS & PRODUCTION(yearly percent change)

Volume of World Exports (May=5.3)

World Production (May=3.5)

Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy.

yardeni.com

Figure 37.

III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

2009

Current data updated thru: Q2-2017

1961197019751982199120012009

REAL GDP(percent changes from business cycle troughs*)

* Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions. The short 12-month recovery fromJuly 1980 to July 1981 is excluded.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 38.




I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV2008 2009 2010

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0FED’S LIQUIDITY FACILITIES(trillion dollars, weekly)

Emergency Liquidity Facilities*Discount Window Borrowing

* The traditional discount window and crisis-related Term Auction Facility (TAF), Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF), Term Securities Lending Facility(TSLF), Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF), Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (AMLF),Money Market Investor Funding Facility (MMIFF), and the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF). Also included are bilateral currencyswap agreements with several foreign central banks.Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yard

eni.

com

Figure 39.

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV2008 2009 2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650FED’S CENTRAL BANK LIQUIDITY SWAPS(billion dollars)


yardeni.com

Figure 40.




2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015.4

.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

4.0

4.4

4.8

.4

.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

4.0

4.4

4.8

QE1 QE2 QE3

FED’S ASSETS: 2008-2015*(trillion dollars)

Total Assets

US Treasuries+ Agency Debt+ MBS

Note: QE1 (11/25/08) = Fed starts buying $1.24tn in mortgage securities. QE1 expanded (3/16/2009) = Fed starts buying $300bn in Treasuries.QE2 (11/3/10) = Fed starts buying $600bn in Treasuries. QE3 (9/13/12) = Fed starts buying $40bn/month in mortgage securities (open ended).QE3 expanded (12/12/12) = Fed starts buying $45bn/month in Treasuries.

* Average of daily figures for weeks ending Wednesday.


yardeni.com

Figure 41.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015.0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

.0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

QE1 QE2 QE3

FED’S ASSETS: 2008-2015*(trillion dollars)

Agency Debt +MBS

US TreasurySecurities

MBS

Note: QE1 (11/25/08) = Fed starts buying $1.24tn in mortgage securities. QE1 expanded (3/16/2009) = Fed starts buying $300bn in Treasuries.QE2 (11/3/10) = Fed starts buying $600bn in Treasuries. QE3 (9/13/12) = Fed starts buying $40bn/month in mortgage securities (open ended).QE3 expanded (12/12/12) = Fed starts buying $45bn/month in Treasuries.

* Average of daily figures for weeks ending Wednesday.


yardeni.com

Figure 42.




85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Q1

Jul

AGENCY- & GSE-BACKED SECURITIES(trillion dollars, nsa)

Agency- & GSE-Backed Securities Held By:

Foreign Official Institutions*Rest of World

* Held by foreign official institutions at the Fed.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States and Federal Reserve Board,Table H.4.1.

yardeni.com

Figure 43.

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200

2

4

6

8

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

Q1

AGENCY- & GSE-BACKED SECURITIES OUTSTANDING(trillion dollars)

Total OutstandingTotal Outstanding MinusHeld by Fed


yardeni.com

Figure 44.




http://blog.yardeni.com

http://blog.yardeni.com

[email protected]

Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2017. All rights reserved. The informationcontained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is notnecessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation orwarranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, orcorrectness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the otherinformation provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted onwww.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones are issuedwithout regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needsof any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sellany securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guideto future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, butshould not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock.Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed asrecommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futurescontracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments.

The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc.product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc. andconstitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones may be downloaded, transmitted,broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwisedisseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent ofYardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from YardeniResearch, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietaryand intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. YardeniResearch, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property,including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/orto track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means,now known or hereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without furthernotice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civilremedies for the violation of its rights.

The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses.Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmittedby this company’s emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available onrequest.

Chapter 8 Charts: Predicting Real Estateptmbook.yardeni.com/pub/ptmcctchap8realestate.pdf ·...

Documents

Transcript of Chapter 8 Charts: Predicting Real Estateptmbook.yardeni.com/pub/ptmcctchap8realestate.pdf ·...