Country Briefing: China - Yardeni Research · Country Briefing: China Yardeni Research, Inc. April...

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Country Briefing: China Yardeni Research, Inc. June 11, 2018 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected] Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 [email protected] Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected] Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box

Transcript of Country Briefing: China - Yardeni Research · Country Briefing: China Yardeni Research, Inc. April...

Page 1: Country Briefing: China - Yardeni Research · Country Briefing: China Yardeni Research, Inc. April 18, 2018 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@yardeni.com Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333

Country Briefing:China

Yardeni Research, Inc.

June 11, 2018

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Debbie Johnson480-664-1333

[email protected]

Mali Quintana480-664-1333

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

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Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

June 11, 2018 / Country Briefing: China www.yardeni.com

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Real GDP 1Industrial Production 2Electricity 3-5Manufacturing PMI 6-9Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs 10Retail Sales 11Autos 12Trade Balance 13Exports & Imports 14-16Export Shares 17Exports to 18-19Trade Balance by Regions 20Exports to China 21Railways Traffic 22Producer Price Index 23-25Consumer Price Index 26-28China vs. US Inflation 29-30Stock Market 31-32Money Growth & Inflation 33Social Finance 34-35Bank Loans 36Monetary Policy 37PBOC Balance Sheet 38Exchange Rate 39International Reserves 40-41China vs. US Monetary Indicators 42-43Industrial Production & Retail Sales 44Railway Freight Traffic 45Bank Loans 46

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1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 20200

5

10

15

20

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

Q1

quarterly percent change, saar (7.1)yearly percent change (6.8)

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.comCHINA: REAL GDP

Figure 1.

Real GDP

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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202030

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270300330360390

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270300330360390

Dec

AprAprCHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION*(2005=100, sa, ratio scale)

* Value added basis.Source: IMF International Financial Statistics.

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Figure 2.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20202

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

2

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6

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Apr

CHINA REAL GDP & INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(yearly percent change)

Real GDP (6.8)Industrial Production* (7.0)

* Value added basis.Source: Haver Analytics.

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Figure 3.

Industrial Production

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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020600

1200

1800

2400

3000

3600

4200

4800

540060006600

600

1200

1800

2400

3000

3600

4200

4800

540060006600

Apr

CHINA: ELECTRICITY OUTPUT(100 million KWH, ratio scale)

3-Month AverageActual

Source: Haver Analytics and China National Bureau of Statistics.

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Figure 4.

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020-15

-10

-5

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15

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30

35

-15

-10

-5

0

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30

35

Apr

CHINA: ELECTRICITY OUTPUT(yearly percent change)

in 12-Month Moving Average (6.8)in 3-Month Moving Average (6.9)

Source: Haver Analytics and China National Bureau of Statistics.

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Figure 5.

Electricity

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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020-15

-10

-5

0

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35

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500

600

700

6/8

Apr

CHINA: ELECTRICITY OUTPUT vs CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index

China Electricity Output(yearly percent changein 3-month moving average)

Source: Haver Analytics and China National Bureau of Statistics.

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Figure 6.

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020-5

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6/8

Apr

CHINA: ELECTRICITY OUTPUT vs CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index

China Electricity Output(yearly percent changein 12-month moving average)

Source: Haver Analytics and China National Bureau of Statistics.

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Figure 7.

Electricity

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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020-2

0

2

4

6

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10

12

14

16

18

20

-2

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18

20

Q1

CHINA: REAL GDP & ELECTRICITY OUTPUT(yearly percent change)

Real GDP (6.8)Power Generated Output(12-ma) (6.8)

Source: Haver Analytics and China National Bureau of Statistics.

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Figure 6.

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020-12

-6

0

6

12

18

24

30

36

-12

-6

0

6

12

18

24

30

36

Apr

CHINA: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION & ELECTRICITY OUTPUT(yearly percent change in 3-ma)

Industrial Production (6.7)Electricity Output (6.9)

Source: Haver Analytics and China National Bureau of Statistics.

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Figure 7.

Electricity

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202090

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

35

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55

60

65

May

CHINA: MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX(sa)

M-PMI Composite (51.9)

Leading Index (99.0)

Source: China Federation Logistics & Purchasing and Haver Analytics.

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Figure 8.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202030

35

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May

CHINA: OFFICIAL MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX & MAJOR COMPONENTS*(sa)

Composite (51.9)New Orders (53.8)Employment (49.1)Output (54.1)

* An index above 50 indicates an increase in activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in activity.Source: China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and Haver Analytics.

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Figure 9.

Manufacturing PMI

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Figure 10.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202035

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65

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May

CHINA: MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX(sa)

PMI Composite (51.9)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202030

40

50

60

70

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70

May

Output (54.1)New Orders (53.8)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202020

30

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70

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70

May

New Orders (53.8)Export Orders (51.2)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-5

0

5

10

15

-5

0

5

10

15

May

New Orders minusExport Orders (2.6)

Source: China Federation Logistics & Purchasing, OECD, and Haver Analytics.

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Manufacturing PMI

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Figure 11.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202030

40

50

60

70

30

40

50

60

70

May

CHINA: MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX(sa)

Imports (50.9)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202040

45

50

55

40

45

50

55

May

Employment (49.1)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202035

40

45

50

55

60

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45

50

55

60

May

Stocks of Orders/Purchases (45.9)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202030

40

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60

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50

60

70

May

Quantity ofPurchases (53.0)

Source: China Federation Logistics & Purchasing/Haver Analytics.

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Manufacturing PMI

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Figure 12.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202046

48

50

52

54

46

48

50

52

54

May

CHINA: MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX(sa)

Suppliers’DeliveryTimes (50.1)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202040

45

50

55

40

45

50

55

May

Stock of FinishedGoods (46.1)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202035

40

45

50

55

35

40

45

50

55

May

Stock of RawMaterials (49.6)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202020

30

40

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60

70

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20

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50

60

70

80

May

Purchase Price (56.7)

Source: China Federation Logistics & Purchasing/Haver Analytics.

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Manufacturing PMI

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202046

48

50

52

54

46

48

50

52

54

May

CHINA: MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES

Final (51.1)

Source: Markit and Haver Analytics.

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Figure 13.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202050

55

60

65

50

55

60

65

May

CHINA: NON-MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX(sa)

Source: China Federation Logistics & Purchasing and Haver Analytics

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Figure 14.

Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs

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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200

500

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2000

2500

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3500

0

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3000

3500

Apr

CHINA: RETAIL SALES(billion yuan, nsa)

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

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Figure 15.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Apr

CHINA: RETAIL SALES(yearly percent change)

Total (9.4)

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

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Figure 16.

Retail Sales

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20201.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

May

CHINA: AUTOMOBILE SALES & PRODUCTION(million units, nsa)

Sales (2.3)Production (2.3)

Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

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Figure 17.

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202017

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30MayCHINA: AUTOMOBILE SALES & PRODUCTION

(12-month sum, million units)

Sales (29.5)Production (29.5)

Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

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Figure 18.

Autos

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97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-200

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-200

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May

CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE(billion dollars, saar)

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Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.

Figure 19.

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200

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CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE(billion dollars, 12-month sum)

Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.

yard

eni.

com

Figure 20.

Trade Balance

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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-50

0

50

100

-50

0

50

100

May

CHINA MERCHANDISE TRADE*(yearly percent change)

Imports (25.8)Exports (12.6)

* Excluding Hong Kong.Source: China Customs/Haver Analytics.

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Figure 21.

Exports & Imports

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Figure 26.

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20500

900

1300

1700

2100

2500

2900

MayCHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE*(billion dollars, saar, ratio scale)

TotalImportsExports

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2020

60

100

140

180

220260300340380

AprTelecommunication &Sound RecordingEquipment

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20180

330

480

630

780

930

1080

12301380

Apr

Machinery &Transport Equipment

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010.5

30.5

50.5

70.5

90.5

110.5

Apr

Professional & ScientificInstruments & Apparatus

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2060

135

210

285

360

435

510585

Apr

Electrical Machinery,Apparatus, & Appliances

* Excluding Hong Kong. Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2012

32

52

72

92

112

132

Apr

Iron & Steel

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Exports & Imports

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Figure 27.

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2038

88

138

188

238

288

338

388

438488538588

May

CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE(billion dollars, saar, ratio scale)

With USExportsImports

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2060

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

May

With JapanExportsImports

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

May

With EUExportsImports

Source: China Customs/Haver Analytics.

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

May

With Rest of WorldExportsImports

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Exports & Imports

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97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 204

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May

CHINA: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS(as percent of total exports)

To United States (18.7)To Japan (5.9)To European Union (16.0)

Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.

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Figure 28.

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2035

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CHINA: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS(as percent of total exports)

To Rest of World* (59.4)

* Excludes the US, Japan, and European Union exports.Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.

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Figure 29.

Export Shares

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97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2030

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CHINA: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS TO US & US M-PMI

Chinese Exports to US(yearly percent change in 3-ma)

US M-PMI(50+=expansion, sa)

Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.

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Figure 30.

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2030

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CHINA: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS TO EU & EU M-PMI

Chinese Exports to EU(yearly percent change in 3-ma)

EU M-PMI(50+=expansion, sa)

Source: China Customs RBS and Markit.

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Figure 31.

Exports to

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97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-30

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May

CHINA: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS TO JAPAN(yearly percent change)

Source: China Customs.

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Figure 32.

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40

-20

0

20

40

60

-40

-20

0

20

40

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May

CHINA: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS TO REST OF WORLD*(yearly percent change in 3-ma)

* Exports excluding US, EU, and Japan.Source: China Customs.

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Figure 33.

Exports to

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97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200

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250

300May

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CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE BY REGIONS(billion dollars, 12-month sum)

US (291.7)EU (127.7)

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Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.

Figure 34.

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-200

-100

0

100

200

-200

-100

0

100

200

May

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CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE BY REGIONS(billion dollars, 12-month sum)

With Rest of World (3.1)Japan (-33.5)

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Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.

Figure 35.

Trade Balance by Regions

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00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

Apr

EXPORTS TO CHINA: US, EUROZONE + UK, JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, & AUSTRALIA(billion dollars, 12-month sum)

US (133.0)Eurozone + UK (227.3)Japan (142.3)South Korea (152.8)Australia (76.3)

Source: Bureau of the Census and China Customs.

yardeni.comyardeni.com

Figure 36.

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-20

0

20

40

60

-20

0

20

40

60

Mar

EXPORTS TO CHINA: US, EUROZONE + UK, JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, & AUSTRALIA(yearly percent change)

Source: Bureau of the Census and China Customs.

yardeni.com

Figure 37.

Exports to China

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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20201.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Apr

CHINA: RAILWAYS FREIGHT TRAFFIC(100 million tons)

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 38.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Apr

CHINA: RAILWAYS PASSENGER TRAFFIC(100 million persons)

12-Month Moving AverageActual

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 39.

Railways Traffic

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97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

May

May

CHINA: CPI & PPI(yearly percent change)

CPI (1.8)PPI: TotalIndustrial Products (4.1)

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 40.

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

May

CHINA: RAW MATERIALS & MANUFACTURING PPI(yearly percent change)

Raw Materials (7.4)Manufacturing (4.4)

yardeni.com

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

Figure 41.

Producer Price Index

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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

Mar

CHINA: LIGHT & HEAVY INDUSTRY PPI(yearly percent change)

Heavy Industry (-5.7)Light Industry (-0.9)

yardeni.com

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

Figure 42.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

May

CHINA: RAW MATERIALS PPI(yearly percent change)

Chemical (3.9)Coal (3.8)Ferrous Metals (0.5)Nonferrous Metals (6.1)

yardeni.com

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

Figure 43.

Producer Price Index

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98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

May

CHINA PPI: CONSUMER GOODS(yearly percent change)

Durable Goods (-0.7)Daily-Use Articles (1.1)

yardeni.com

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

Figure 44.

Producer Price Index

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Figure 45.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

May

CHINA: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

Total (1.8)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

MayExcluding Food (2.2)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

May

Consumer Goods (1.3)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

May

Services (2.5)

Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Consumer Price Index

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Figure 46.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

May

CHINA: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)

Fuel & Power (5.5)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

May

Medicine, Medical Care &Personal Articles (5.1)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-4

-2

0

2

4

6

MayClothing (1.1)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

May

Transportation &Communication (1.8)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-10

-5

0

5

10

15

May

Housing (2.2)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

May

Recreation, Education &Cultural Services (1.9)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-5

0

5

10

May

Household Facilities,Articles & RepairServices (1.5)

Source: Haver Analytics.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-2

0

2

4

6

DecTobacco &Liquor Products (3.9)

yardeni.com

Consumer Price Index

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Figure 47.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-10

0

10

20

30

40

May

CHINA: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)

Food (0.1)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

May

Fresh Vegetables (10.0)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-20

0

20

40

60

May

Meat, Poultry &RelatedProducts (-9.3)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

May

Fresh Fruits (-2.7)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-20

0

20

40

60

May

Grain (0.9)

Source: Haver Analytics.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

May

Eggs (20.8)

yardeni.com

Consumer Price Index

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98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

May

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)

US (2.4)China (1.8)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and China National Bureau of Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 48.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

May

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: FOOD(yearly percent change)

China: Food (0.1)US: Food at Home (0.6)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and China National Bureau of Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 49.

China vs. US Inflation

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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

May

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX EX FOOD(yearly percent change)

US (2.6)China (2.2)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and China National Bureau of Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 50.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

May

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)

US: Finished Goods (2.3)China: Total Industrial Products (4.1)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and China National Bureau of Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 51.

China vs. US Inflation

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

6/8

CHINA: SHANGHAI-SHENZHEN 300(12/31/2004=1000)

Source: Haver Analytics.200-day moving average.

yardeni.com

Figure 52.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202020

40

60

80

100

120

20

40

60

80

100

120

6/8

CHINA: MSCI SHARE PRICE INDEX(yuan, December 31, 1992=100)

200-day moving average.Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.

yardeni.com

Figure 53.

Stock Market

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020400

600

800

1000

1200

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

6/86/8

CHINA: STOCK MARKET & CRB METALS

MSCI Share Price Index(Yuan, December 31, 1992=100)

CRB Metals(1967=100)

Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International, Commodity Research Bureau, and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 54.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020100

200

300

400

500

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

6/8

6/8

CHINA: STOCK MARKET & COPPER PRICE

MSCI Share Price Index(yuan, December 31, 1992=100)

Copper Price*(cents per pound)

* Nearby futures contract.Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 55.

Stock Market

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

Apr

May

CHINA: M1 & CPI(yearly percent change)

Consumer Price Index (1.8)M1*(pushed ahead 12 months) (7.2)

* In yuan.Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 56.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

May

Apr

CHINA: M2 & CPI(yearly percent change)

Consumer Price Index (1.8)M2*(pushed ahead 12 months) (8.3)

* In yuan.Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 57.

Money Growth & Inflation

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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Apr

CHINA: TOTAL SOCIAL FINANCING(trillion yuan)

Source: Peoples Bank of China.

yardeni.com

Figure 58.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Apr

CHINA: TOTAL SOCIAL FINANCING(billion US dollars)

Source: Peoples Bank of China.

yardeni.com

Figure 59.

Social Finance

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0

5

10

15

20

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

Apr

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200

1

2

3

4

0

1

2

3

4

Apr

CHINA SOCIAL FINANCING(trillion yuan, 12-month sum)

(trillion US dollars, 12-month sum)

Total in Yuan (18.3)

Total In US Dollars (2.8)

Source: Peoples Bank of China/Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 60.

0

5

10

15

0

5

10

15Apr

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020.0

.4

.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

.0

.4

.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

Apr

CHINA SOCIAL FINANCING: BANK LOANS(trillion yuan, 12-month sum)

(trillion US dollars, 12-month sum)

Bank Loansin Yuan (14.2)

Bank Loansin US Dollars (2.2)

Source: People’s Bank of China.

yardeni.com

Figure 61.

Social Finance

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-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

Apr

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

Apr

CHINA: COMMERCIAL BANK LOANS(monthly change in billions)

in yuan (1177.5)

in dollars (187.0)

Source: People’s Bank of China.

yardeni.com

Figure 62.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-250

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

-250

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

Apr

CHINA(monthly change in 3-month average, billion yuan)

Bank Loans

Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 63.

Bank Loans

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85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

6/8

CHINA REQUIRED RESERVE RATIO(percent)

Required Reserve RatioLarge Depository Institutions (16.0)Small/Medium Depository Institutions (14.0)

Source: People’s Bank of China.

yardeni.com

Figure 64.

74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 202

4

6

8

10

12

14

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

May

CHINA: PRIME LENDING RATE(percent)

Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 65.

Monetary Policy

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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020.2

.7

1.2

1.7

2.2

2.7

3.23.74.24.75.25.76.2

.2

.7

1.2

1.7

2.2

2.7

3.23.74.24.75.25.76.2

AprPBOC ASSETS(trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale)

Total Assets (5.6)Foreign Exchange Assets (3.4)Nongold International ReservesHeld by China (IMF data) (3.1)

Source: People’s Bank of China and IMF.

yardeni.com

Figure 66.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202035

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

Apr

PBOC ASSETS(percent)

Foreign Exchange Held/Total PBOC Assets

Source: People’s Bank of China and IMF.

yardeni.com

Figure 67.

PBOC Balance Sheet

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97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 208.6

8.4

8.2

8.0

7.8

7.6

7.4

7.2

7.0

6.8

6.6

6.4

6.2

6.0

5.8

8.6

8.4

8.2

8.0

7.8

7.6

7.4

7.2

7.0

6.8

6.6

6.4

6.2

6.0

5.8

6/8

CHINA: FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE(yuan/$)

Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.

yardeni.com

Figure 68.

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010

210

410

610

8101010121014101610

10

210

410

610

8101010121014101610

MarMAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF US TREASURY SECURITIES(billion dollars, nsa, ratio scale)

China + Hong KongChinaHong Kong

Source: US Department of the Treasury, Office of International Affairs.

yardeni.com

Figure 69.

Exchange Rate

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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 20200

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

0

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Mar

CHINA: INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(billion dollars, nsa)

Non-Gold International Reserves (IMF)Holdings of US Treasury Securities*

Source: US Department of the Treasury, Office of International Affairs and International Monetary Fund.* Includes private and official accounts.

yardeni.com

Figure 70.

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020-650

-550

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May

CHINA: INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(billion dollars, yearly change)

Non-Gold International Reserves (IMF)Holdings of US Treasury Securities*

Source: US Department of the Treasury, Office of International Affairs and International Monetary Fund.* Includes private and official accounts.

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Figure 71.

International Reserves

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97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-700

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May

May

CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES(billion dollars)

Merchandise Trade Surplus or Deficit(12-month sum)Non-Gold International Reserves(12-month change)

Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 72.

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-1300

-1200

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May

CHINA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS*(billion dollars)

* 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus (deficit).Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.

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Figure 73.

International Reserves

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Figure 74.

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BANK LOANS(trillion US dollars)

ChinaUS

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2

3

4

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6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

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May

CENTRAL BANK ACCOUNTS(trillion US dollars)

China’s Total AssetsUS Fed’s Total Assets

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and People’s Bank of China.

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China vs. US Monetary Indicators

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Figure 75.

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 20200

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CHINA: BANK LOANS(as a percent of US Bank Loans)

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 202050

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350

Apr

TOTAL ASSETS OF PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA(as a percent of US Fed’s Total Assets)

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and People’s Bank of China.

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China vs. US Monetary Indicators

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98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-10

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0

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25

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May

CHINA: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION & PRODUCER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)

Industrial Production* (7.0)PPI: TotalIndustrial Products (4.1)

* Value added basis.Source: IMF International Financial Statistics and China National Bureau of Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 76.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-10

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CHINA: RETAIL SALES(yearly percent change)

Total (9.4)

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

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Figure 77.

Industrial Production & Retail Sales

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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020700

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Apr

MayCHINA: RAILWAYS FREIGHT TRAFFIC & IMPORTS PLUS EXPORTS

Railways Freight Traffic(100 million tons)

Imports Plus Exports(billion dollars, saar)

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, China Customs, and Haver Analytics.

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Figure 78.

Railway Freight Traffic

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200

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BANK LOANS: CHINA & US(trillion US dollars)

China (nsa) (20.0)US (sa) (9.2)

Source: People’s Bank of China.

yardeni.com

Figure 79.

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 20200

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CHINA: BANK LOANS(as a percent of US Bank Loans)

Source: People’s Bank of China.

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Figure 80.

Bank Loans

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