Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities · 2021. 8. 20. · Predicting the Markets Chapter 11...

Predicting the MarketsChapter 11 Charts:

Predicting CommoditiesYardeni Research, Inc.

September 10, 2021

Dr. Edward YardeniChief Investment Strategist

Mali QuintanaSenior Economist

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

September 10, 2021 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Predicting Commodities 1-25

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2670

170

270

370

470

570

670

70

170

270

370

470

570

670

CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100, ratio scale)

9/9

* Weekly from January 9, 1951 to May 26, 1981, then daily. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops,hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 1.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22200

300

400

500

600

700

200

300

400

500

600

700

C

CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100, daily)














9/9

Note: C = China joined World Trade Organization on December 11, 2001.* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.

Source: Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 2.

Predicting Commodities

Page 1 / September 10, 2021 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities www.yardeni.com


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202230

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

300

330

360

390

420

450

480

510

540

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

300

330

360

390

420

450

480

510

540

Jul

CHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION*(2005=100, sa)

* Value added basis.Source: China National Bureau of Statistics and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 3.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Q2Jul

CHINA REAL GDP & INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(yearly percent change)

Real GDPIndustrial Production*

* Value added basis.Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 4.




2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022200

300

400

500

600

700

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

44

48

52

Jul

9/9

CHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX

China Industrial Production*(yearly percent change)

CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index**(1967=100)

* Value added basis.** Includes hides, tallow, copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, zinc, tin, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, rosin, rubber, hogs, steers, lard, butter,

soybean oil, cocoa, corn, Kansas City wheat, Minneapolis wheat, and sugar.Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 5.

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022100

200

300

400

500

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

44

48

52

Jul

9/9

CHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION & COPPER PRICE

China Industrial Production*(yearly percent change)

Copper Futures Price**(cents per pound)

* Value added basis.** Nearby futures contract.

Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 6.




85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 245

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

9/10

9/10

CHINA REQUIRED RESERVE RATIO(percent)

Required Reserve RatioLarge Depository InstitutionsSmall/Medium Depository Institutions

Source: People’s Bank of China.

yardeni.com

Figure 7.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20225

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Aug

Aug

CHINA M2 & BANK LOANS(yearly percent change in yuan)

M2Bank Loans

Source: People’s Bank of China.

yardeni.com

Figure 8.




2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

12/24

BALTIC DRY INDEX(1/4/85=100, daily)

Source: The Baltic Exchange.

yardeni.com

Figure 9.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

9/99/9

INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & COPPER PRICE(daily)

Copper Futures Price**(cents per pound)

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*(1967=100)

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.** Nearby futures contract.

Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 10.




67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 255

30

55

80

105

130

155180205230255

5

30

55

80

105

130

155180205230255

BOOM-BUST BAROMETER* & BUSINESS CYCLE

(four-week average, ratio scale)9/4

* Weekly average of CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, showing four-week average.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 11.

67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 252

47

92

137

182

227272

2

47

92

137

182

227272

BOOM BUST BAROMETER*& BEAR MARKETS IN STOCKS(four-week average, ratio scale)

9/4

Note: Shaded red areas denote S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets.* Weekly average of CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week average, showing four-week average.

Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 12.




2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

4000

4200

4400

4600

-10

30

70

110

150

190

230

270

310

9/4

9/10S&P 500 INDEX & BOOM-BUST BAROMETER

Boom-Bust Barometer*

S&P 500 Index

* CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims, showing four-week moving average.Source: Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 13.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 202350

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

0102030405060708090

100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250260

9/4

9/2S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & BOOM-BUST BAROMETER(weekly)

S&P 500Forward Earnings*

Boom-Bust Barometer**

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for the current year and next year.** CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims, showing four-week moving average.

Source: Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yard

eni.c

om

Figure 14.




2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250S&P 500 SECTORS PRICE INDEXES DURING BULL MARKET OF 2002-2007(percent change since October 9, 2002)

Energy (242.2)

Materials (162.3)

Industrials (125.9)

Consumer Staples (40.4)

Health Care (41.4)Financials (92.6)

Information Technology (145.4)

Telecommunications Services (117.8)

Consumer Discretionary (78.3)

Utilities (172.1)

Source: Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 15.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400MSCI SHARE PRICE INDEXES DURING BULL MARKET OF 2003-2007(percent change in US dollars since October 9, 2002)

UK (130.7)

EMU** (223.7)EM* (386.0)

Japan (113.6)

US (103.8)

* EM = Emerging Markets. ** EMU = European Monetary Union.Source: MSCI.

yardeni.com

Figure 16.




95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2210000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

200

300

400

500

600

700

9/99/9

EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX (in local currencies)& INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX(daily)

Emerging MarketsMSCI Stock Price Index(local currencies)

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: MSCI and Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 17.

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023200

300

400

500

600

700

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

9/9

9/9

EMERGING MARKETS MSCI CURRENCY INDEX &INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX (US$)(daily)

Emerging MarketsMSCI Currency Index*

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index**

* Includes Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines,Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, and United Arab Emirates.

** Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: MSCI and Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 18.




2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

.10

.12

.14

.16

.18

.20

.22

9/10

9/9

S&P 500 MATERIALS & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX(daily)

S&P 500 Materials Index(as a ratio of S&P 500 Index)

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*(1967=100)

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 19.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220

25

50

75

100

125

150

.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

9/10

9/9

S&P 500 ENERGY & BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE(daily)

S&P 500 Energy Index(as a ratio of S&P 500 Index)

Brent Crude Oil Futures Price*(dollars per barrel)

* Nearby futures price.Source: Standard & Poor’s and the Financial Times.

yardeni.com

Figure 20.




73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2350

60

70

80

90

50

60

70

80

90

CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: WORLD(million barrels per day, ratio scale)

Aug

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Energy Information Administration.

yardeni.com

Figure 21.

74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: WORLD(yearly percent change)

Aug

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Energy Information Administration.

yardeni.com

Figure 22.




70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-40

-15

10

35

60

85

110

135

160

-40

-15

10

35

60

85

110

135

160

9/9

WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE(dollars per barrel)*

* Monthly from 1946 to 1984, then daily.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 23.

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2425

75

125

175

225

275

325

375

25

75

125

175

225

275

325

375

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: GASOLINE(1982-84 = 100, ratio scale)

Jul

yardeni.com

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 24.




79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 242

4

6

8

10

12

2

4

6

8

10

12

Aug

CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: SAUDI ARABIA(million barrels a day)

Source: Energy Information Administration.

yardeni.com

Figure 25.

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

Aug

CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: IRAN & IRAQ(million barrels per day)

IranIraq


yardeni.com

Figure 26.




79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2410

20

30

40

50

60

10

20

30

40

50

60

Aug

Aug

CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: OPEC & NON-OPEC(million barrels per day, ratio scale)

Non-OPECOPEC


yardeni.com

Figure 27.

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2426

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

Aug

CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: OPEC(as a percent of total world)


yardeni.com

Figure 28.




73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 253.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

Aug

CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: UNITED STATES(million barrels per day)


yardeni.com

Figure 29.

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 252

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

9/3

9/3

CRUDE OIL: ACTIVE US RIG COUNT & FIELD PRODUCTION(weekly)

Rig Count(units)

Production(million barrels per day, nsa)

Source: Baker Hughes Inc. and US Department of Energy.

yardeni.com

Figure 30.




91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 257.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

Jun

12/25

US GASOLINE DEMAND & VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED

Gasoline Usage(million barrels per day, 52-wa)

Vehicle Miles Traveled(trillion miles, 12-month sum)

Source: US Department of Energy.

yardeni.com

Figure 31.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2418.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

20.5

21.0

21.5

22.0

22.5

23.0

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

20.5

21.0

21.5

22.0

22.5

23.0

Dec

GASOLINE FUEL EFFICIENCY IN THE US*(average miles per gallon)

* Vehicle miles traveled (billion miles, 12-month sum) divided by Gasoline usage (billion barrels per day, 52-wa)Source: US Department of Energy.

yardeni.com

Figure 32.




2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

200

300

400

500

600

700

9/9

9/9

BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*

Brent Crude OilFutures Price**(dollars per barrel)

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.** Nearby futures price.

Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 33.

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022100

200

300

400

500

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

9/9

9/9

FUTURES PRICES*

Brent Crude Futures Price(dollars per barrel)

Copper Futures Price(cents per pound)

* Nearby futures price.Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 34.




75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24.2

.8

1.4

2.0

2.6

3.2

3.8

4.4

.2

.8

1.4

2.0

2.6

3.2

3.8

4.4

Aug

WORLD CRUDE OIL REVENUES & OUTLAYS*(trillion dollars, annual rate, ratio scale)

Crude Oil Revenues & Outlays*

Note: West Texas Intermediate Spot Price from 1975 TO 1984, Brent Crude oil price thereafter.* Monthly crude oil production (in mbd) times 365 days times dollar price of a barrel of Brent crude oil.

Source: Energy Intelligence Administration.

yardeni.com

Figure 35.

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2425

175

325

475

625

775

9251075

25

175

325

475

625

775

9251075

Aug

Jul

US CRUDE OIL REVENUES & OUTLAYS(billion dollars, annualized, ratio scale)

United StatesCrude Oil Outlays*Petroleum Refineries Shipments(saar)

* Monthly crude oil production (in mbd) multiplied by 365 days and the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil.Source: Energy Intelligence Administration.

yardeni.com

Figure 36.




70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

9/10

S&P GSCI SOYBEANS INDEX(December 31, 1969=100)

Source: Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 37.

47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 2520

60

100

140

180

220

260

300

20

60

100

140

180

220

260

300JulUS CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: FOOD

(1982-84 = 100, ratio scale)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 38.




50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 002

4

6

8

10

12

2

4

6

8

10

12WORLD: POPULATION & PROJECTIONS(billions)

Estimates (through 2019)

Projections (2020 through 2099)

Source: United Nations.

yardeni.com

Figure 39.

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5WORLD: POPULATION & PROJECTIONS(yearly percent change)




yardeni.com

Figure 40.




1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 20951.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5WORLD: FERTILITY RATE(children per woman)




yardeni.com

Figure 41.

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 5025

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70WORLD: URBAN POPULATION & PROJECTIONS(as a percent of total population)




yard

eni.c

om

Figure 42.




68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2430

330

630

930

1230

15301830213024302730

30

330

630

930

1230

15301830213024302730

Nixon Ford Carter Reagan Bush I Clinton Bush II Obama Trump

GOLD PRICE*(dollars per ounce, ratio scale)

9/9

Source: The Wall Street Journal and Haver Analytics.* Cash price, London gold bullion, PM Fix. Monthly from 1968 through 1974, then daily.

yardeni.com

Figure 43.

75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

Jul

GOLD PRICE* / CPI

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Wall Street Journal, and Haver Analytics.* Cash price. London gold bullion, PM Fix.

yardeni.com

Figure 44.




75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 250

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

9/3

9/9

GOLD PRICE & FED’S MAJOR TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX

Nominal FRB AdvancedForeign Economies Trade-WeightedDollar Index**(January 2006=100)

Gold Price*(dollars per ounce)

* Cash price, London gold bullion, PM Fix.** Countries included in the Advanced Foreign Economies (AFE) index: Australia, Canada, Euro Area, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, and the

United Kingdom.Source: Federal Reserve Board, The Wall Street Journal, and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 45.

75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25140

180

220

260

300

340

380

420

460

500

540

580

620

660

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

9/7

GOLD PRICE & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX(weekly)


CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index**(1967=100)

Source: Commodity Research Bureau, The Wall Street Journal, and Haver Analytics..

* Cash price London gold bullion, PM Fix.** Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.

yardeni.com

Figure 46.




2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023225

400

575

750

925

1100

1275

1450

1625

1800

1975

2150

225

400

575

750

925

1100

1275

1450

1625

1800

1975

2150

D A

9/9

GOLD CASH PRICE(dollars per troy ounce, daily)

200-day moving averageNote: D = On July 26, 2012, ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. A = On April 4, 2013, Bank of Japanimplemented "Abenomics" monetary policy.Source: The Wall Street Journal and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 47.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20223.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

.5

.0

-.5

-1.0

-1.5

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

9/9

GOLD PRICE & 10-YEAR TIPS YIELD(daily)

10-Year TIPS Yield(percent, inverted scale)


Source: Federal Reserve Board, The Wall Street Journal, and Haver Analytics.* Cash price. London gold bullion, PM Fix.

yardeni.com

Figure 48.




70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

9/10

S&P GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX(nearby futures price, daily)

Source: Standard & Poor’s and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 49.

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-50

0

50

100

150

0

200

400

600

800

1000

9/10

S&P GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX & OIL PRICE(daily)

Goldman Sachs Commodity Index(nearby futures price)

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Index(dollars per barrel)

Source: Standard & Poor’s and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 50.




http://blog.yardeni.com

http://blog.yardeni.com

[email protected]

Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2021. All rights reserved. The informationcontained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is notnecessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation orwarranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, orcorrectness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the otherinformation provided are subject to change without notice. All reports and podcasts posted onwww.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps are issuedwithout regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needsof any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sellany securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guideto future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, butshould not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock.Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed asrecommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futurescontracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments.

The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc.product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc. andconstitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps may be downloaded, transmitted,broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwisedisseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent ofYardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from YardeniResearch, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietaryand intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. YardeniResearch, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property,including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/orto track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means,now known or hereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without furthernotice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civilremedies for the violation of its rights.

The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses.Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmittedby this company’s emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available onrequest.

Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities · 2021. 8. 20. · Predicting the Markets Chapter 11...

Documents

Transcript of Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities · 2021. 8. 20. · Predicting the Markets Chapter 11...