New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute 1

Changing Climate Risk

Decision-making under uncertainty

Auckland Council 14 June 2012

Judy Lawrence

Adjunct Research Associate

NZ Climate Change Research Institute Victoria University of Wellington

Decision-making under uncertainty for climate change

Decision context and frameworks

Tools and outcomes

Some examples

Decision analysis

A strategic approach

Perceptions of risk

Adaptive responses

Necessary conditions

Responses under diverging climate futures and different timelines

Use incremental adaptation to changes over timeframes that are reasonably certain and where flexibility to change is possible

BUT also plan increasingly for divergent possible futures and transformative adaptation

THIS MEANS that the lifetime of the adaptation decision relative to the rate of change is KEY in determining the type of response

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 2140

0

500

1000

1500

SLR

(m

m)

Year

Permanent Infrastructure Settlements

Election cycles

Regional district plans

2112

2012

Residential housing life

Long term plans

Coastal hazard zones

Resource consent Protection works

Time

Different decisions

Static responses reduce flexibility and have limits

‘Hard’ protection—static and time limited e.g. Kapiti coast

‘Setback’ lines—static and time limited e.g. Hawkes Bay coast

Raised floor levels—temporary to a fixed limit e.g. Kapiti coast

Removable houses – practically limited e.g. Kapiti

Ground water pumping – time and capacity limited e.g. Kilbirnie, Wellington and South Dunedin

More flexible responses have been tried

‘Soft’ protection–dunes, wetlands restoration e.g. Bay of Plenty

Integrated flood plain, wetlands and community outcomes e.g. Twin Streams, Waitakere

Progressive controls on existing uses based on coastal hazards gives moderate flexibility– transitional, time limited e.g. Canterbury, Hawkes Bay

Retreat planned over a longer time frame – rarely used and only after repeat climate ‘events’

Successful retreat from a floodplain Twin Streams Waitakere Auckland New Zealand

How did the council get 78 property owners to agree to sell? They linked the managed retreat project to wider community goals and outcomes

They used consistent messaging They shared information and explained the problem

They combined technical and people skills to communicate to property owners They demonstrated genuine care and respect for affected property owners

IMPORTANTLY they had a bucket of money for land purchase.

2000 2008

Practice outcomes

Constrained precaution

Short-term focus

Demand for ‘Give us a number’

Use of ‘Best estimates’

Static responses

Lock-in and increasing risk

Potential for maladaptive

decisions

These constrain flexible decision options

Changing frequencies for extreme events

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Pro

babili

ty o

f occurr

ence

originally 5%

originally 2%

originally 1%

Time

Rate of change in probability of occurrence as probability distribution changes. Based on a recent summary of global temperatures by Hansen (2011). Some changes are already about one third to one half of the way along the time axis.

Hutt Valley Flooding case study

Projected flooding changes

More frequent with protection standards of existing and planned measures degrading and a large uncertainty range

Uncertainty conflicts with quest for ‘robust’ definitive guidance BUT averages or best estimates can mislead

Lower warming scenarios currently 1% likely each year will become 2.5% likely by 2100 and for higher warming scenarios 1% is likely to become 6% likely by 2100

Changes in flood frequencies under the A2emission scenario. The black dots and line show present-day flood volumes and their estimated return periods. The purple dots show best estimate future flood volumes and return periods under continued global emissions increases. The purple band shows the 10 to 90% range across different climate models. The light pink band shows the lowest and highest results across all models.

Hutt Valley Flooding case study

Impacts of flooding

Flood impacts increase non-linearly beyond 2300 cumecs with increasing flood volumes and more properties damaged to greater depths

Flood impacts can have a disproportionate impact on different social groups

Ability to adapt, cope and recover from flooding

Understanding of flood risk was low over Hutt Valley

Past experience increases household preparedness and willingness for flood protection

The framing of risk, affects understanding of the likelihood and severity of flood risk and level of preparedness e.g. ARI, AEP and chance – can lead to maladaptation

Households prefer a region-wide integrated flood risk management regime, and land use planning over structural measures

Hutt Valley Flooding case study

Barriers to adaptive capacity

Lack of integration and strategic oversight within and between levels of government

Leadership needed for integration and central government direction could influence long term risk management

How risk is communicated—AEP and ARIs are misinterpreted

Different risk assessment approaches across the region

Mismatch of timeframes across council functions

Dominant focus on costs rather than who pays and when

Opportunities for adaptive capacity

Pool resources across levels of government

Apply LIDAR for better elevation data

Use visual media of past flood damage Share learning via workshops

Communicate risk as changing over

time

Use of flood information showing flooding over a defined common floor level for a range of scenarios

Integrate climate change across all

council functions

Decision frameworks

BAU approaches limited by capacity to adapt to changing risk- limit to adaptation

Consideration of a wide range of options for different magnitude and frequency of changes over different timeframes

Continuous transformation will be more appropriate

Flexible decision pathways needed to

bridge from incremental adaptation within current frameworks, to a transition to learning and re-orienting as the future climate unfolds

Implications for responses

Decision analysis

Sensitivity to change Planning process Reducing risk

Short versus long term

planning issues

Extent of the exposure to

climate risks

Capacity to deal with rates

of change in exposure

Incremental adaptation

to transformation

Precautionary risk

management

Ranges of options for

different decisions

Monitoring changes to

provide advance

warning

Regularly assessed as

still inside a risk

envelope

Advance warning of

thresholds for

structural change

Scan exposure and sensitivity across

region

What is at risk and when over lifetime

Implications of BAU -different timeframes

and range of scenarios

Options over a range of scenarios

Stage actions for different

consequences

A strategic approach

Undertake in a deliberative manner

A decision-makers focus

A new approach for decision makers - Netherlands

From high levels of protection to risk management

Instead of starting with climate scenario an adaptation tipping points approach is used.

“what are the first issues that we will face as a result of climate change and when can we expect this ?”

How long will current strategies be effective and thus when will alternative strategies be needed?

Kwadijk, J.C.J., et al., 2010: Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise: a case study in the Netherlands. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 1(5), 729-740.

Perception of risk and its communication

Cognitive biases occur in all processes—Optimism bias; fear response; influence of hazard/risk experience on over and under estimating risk; effect of gains and losses

Animation and visual images over a range of scenarios on different response options work best Takaka flooding, Wellington City SLR

Communication of risk probability enhanced if use 1 in 4 chance of an event of X size in next 30 years—much research to support this

Community conversations build trust if good information and consistent messages Kapiti, Hawkes Bay

Risk framing and communication—recent research

Information is important

Problem appears more immediate

Greater trust in council

People are more willing to take personal action and support council action

Timeframe focus is important

Focus on medium distance (2050) and

extreme events may emphasize nearness of the threat

Medium focus (2050) may improve trust in council action

Extreme projections may increase perceived necessity of adaptation

Laurel Evans 2012. Psychology Department VUW. Preliminary results of a Survey on Perceptions of Sea Level Rise

Some adaptive responses options

Develop Plans B and C and...which can be ready and waiting depending on outcomes

Monitor BAU with triggers for review e.g. rate of change accelerates; hazard event

Reversible and less risky options e.g. soft options like reserves and parks

Extra safety margins where cheap to do so and lock-in avoided

Risk hedge e.g. different responses in different places or wider base to stopbanks for future raising

Shorter life of infrastructure can be changed in future at lower cost

Transformation e.g. retreat, identify alternative land, resources, change governance arrangements

Necessary conditions

Processes for:

Sharing understandings of risk with communities of interest

e.g. insurers, valuers, real estate, lawyers, banks and the wider community

Engaging continuously with the communities affected, building on their experience

Weighing and comparing options that do not under-estimate future benefits

Discuss ‘who pays’ and ‘when’

Monitoring decision outcomes

over time

Reviewing decisions for continuous adaptation that manages property ownership expectations

Addressing ‘fairness’ of outcomes and dissent

Alignment between levels of government

BUT these all rely on continuity of institutions over time and political commitment

Some windows of opportunity

Regular planning and budgetary processes

o Annual plans

o Asset management plans

o Regional and district plan reviews and variations

Replacement or upgrade of infrastructure

After damaging weather-related and earthquakes events

When organisational change takes place –integration across functions

Community communication opportunities & consultations

BUT the mainstream is limited

Key issues

Increasing rate of change and dynamic nature of climate changes means

Current decision frameworks and practice entrench risk, constrain future flexibility and limit adaptation

Mainstreaming has limits

Strategic decisions are needed before thresholds are reached

Transitions will take place over decades

Shift from static incremental practice to continual deliberation, adaptation, transitions and planned transformations

Unbundling different types of decisions by different timeframes

Alignment of all levels of government, private property owners and communities working together in a deliberative process

Experimentation with flexible decision pathways will become mainstream

BUT continuity of institutions and political commitment required