Planning'Under' Uncertainty'€¦ · Framing&areas&of&uncertainty&in&resource& planning Decision!...

Planning'Under'Uncertainty'!

!

!

Where!is!it!most!problema/c?!

What!can!be!done!about!it?!

Ambarish'Karmalkar,'N

ECSC'

Thomas'Bonnot,'NE

CSC'

Northeast!Regional!Science!Mee/ng,!May!17,!2017!

Goals&of&session:

1.  Discuss!where!uncertainty!is!prohibi/ve!in!resource!planning!

• Provide!a!general!framing!

•  Iden/fy!important!areas!to!reduce!uncertainty!

2.  Discuss!approaches!to!address!that!uncertainty!• WorkHaround!!versus!Direct!accoun/ng!

•  Learn!from!others!experiences!

• Brainstorm!on!new!approaches!

Framing&areas&of&uncertainty&in&resource&

planning

Decision!

Response!

Strategy!

System!

Impacts!

Climate!

Change!

Problem!

Management!

Ac/ons!

Climate!Change! Impacts! Strategy! Ac/ons!

Uncertainty!

High''Emissions''

Uncertainty&in&Climate&Change&Projec;ons

Projec@ons'Historical'

Medium''Emissions'

Temperature' Precipita@on'

Northeast!Temperature!and!Precipita/on!are!both!projected!to!increase!in!the!future.!!

But,!by!how!much?!

Large'Uncertainty'

Projec/ons!are!based!on!over!30,!highly!sophis/cated!computer!models!

of!the!climate!system!developed!by!scien/sts!from!around!the!world.!

Can&we&reduce&uncertainty&in&climate&change&projec;ons?

Is!it!possible!to!eliminate!some!

of!these!projec/ons!and!reduce!

uncertainty?!

DRY'

P'

T'

WET'

Uncertainty'in'Northeast'summer'projec@ons'

DRY'

WET'

WeIer'by'15%'

Drier'by'10%'

Can&we&reduce&uncertainty&in&climate&change&projec;ons?

Uncertainty'is'not'reduced'significantly'even'aPer'elimina@ng'

most'models'based'on'their'performance'

DRY'

P'

T'

WET'

•  The!current!genera/on!of!climate!models!are!definitely!more!credible!than!their!predecessors,!but!uncertainty!

doesn’t!reduce!significantly!as!the!models!become!highly!sophis/cated!in!their!representa/on!of!the!earth!

system!and!include!more!complex!processes.!

•  Almost!impossible!to!predict!future!climate!accurately:!

•  Strategy:!Perform!sensi/vity/risk!analysis!to!understand!the!impact!of!different!climate!outcomes!on!the!

system!under!study;!Scenario!planning.!

•  Uncertainty!in!model!projec/ons!varies!with!the!region,!season,!and!/mescales!of!interest!and!there!are!

techniques!to!characterize!and!quan/fy!uncertainty!

•  Uncertainty!associated!with!emissions!scenarios!is!not!important!at!short!/mescale!(20H30!years)!for!

temperature!projec/on!and!is!rela/vely!unimportant!for!regional!precipita/on!projec/ons!throughout!the!

century.!!

•  Downscaled!projec/ons!should!not!be!used!in!isola/on!–!one!must!use!all!available!climate!informa/on!to!

make!sure!that!our!decisions!are!not$based!on!overconfident!projec/ons.!

Considera;ons&while&selec;ng&climate&models/projec;ons:

Impacts:&Assessments&and&Syntheses

Shi]s!in!climate!are!expected!to!lead!to!changes!in!

forest!infesta/on,!including!shi]s!of!insect!and!

pathogen!distribu/ons!into!higher!la/tudes!and!

eleva/ons![].!Predicted!climate!warming!is!

expected!to!have!effects!on!bark!beetle!

popula/on!dynamics!in!the!western!USA,!western!

Canada,!and!northern!Mexico!that!may!include!

increases!in!developmental!rates,!genera/ons!per!

year,!and!changes!in!habitat!suitability![].!As!a!

result,!the!impacts!of!bark!beetles!on!forest!

resources!are!expected!to!increase![].!

Impacts:&Specific&Studies

• Uncertainty!in!impacts!at!“our”!par/cular!

scales!

• How!do!we!scale!down!or!scale!up!these!predic/ons!

Acadian flycatcher

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.523% forest cover56% forest cover94% forest cover

Temperature!!

Young!per!nest!adempt!

!15!!!!!!!!20!!!!!!!25!!!!!!!30!!!!!!!35!!!!!!!40!

Response&Strategy

•  Even!when!impacts!are!known,!

the!responses!to!address!them!

may!not!be!

• Realm!of!Ac'onable$Science$

• Uncertainty!comes!about!in!

a!couple!ways!here:!

1.  Precision!Tradeoffs!2.  Frameworks!

Scenario!

Response&Strategy:&Precision&of&Impacts/Response

•  Tradeoffs!in!Precision!!•  Error!in!predic/on!vs.!Uncertainty!in!response!

• Which!do!we!want?!

Low High

Response$

Uncertainty$

Response$

Uncertainty$

Predic've$$

Error$

High

Low

Prediction Uncertainty R

espo

nse

Unc

erta

inty

Predic've$$

Error$

Science'

Scenario!A! Scenario!B!


Low High

Response$

Uncertainty$

Response$

Uncertainty$

Predic've$$

Error$

High

Low


espo

nse

Unc

erta

inty

Predic've$$

Error$

Science'

• Get!specific!and!account!for!the!error!

•  Target!and!reduce!sources!of!error!

• Can!use!that!error!in!decision!making!



• Get!specific!and!account!for!the!error!

•  Target!and!reduce!sources!of!error!

• Can!use!that!error!in!decision!making!

Low High

Response$

Uncertainty$ Response$

Uncertainty$

Predic've$$

Error$

High

Low


espo

nse

Unc

erta

inty

Predic've$$

Error$



•  Less!uncertain!but!less!targeted!strategies!

Lawler$et$al.$2010.$Fron'ers$in$Ecology$and$the$

Environment$

Response&Strategy:&Frameworks&to&evaluate&responses???

• How!can!we!make!this!ac/onable?!

• How!can!we!compare!across!strategies!

• And!resolve!tradeoffs!with!compe/ng!objec/ves!

Surivival!=!H1.4995!+!0.154(Incuba@on)!+!0.182(Nestling)!+!10.976(%'Forest)!+!0.052(Edge)+!H0.126(%'Forest*Edge)!+!H0.230(Precip)!+!0.039(MaxTemp)!+!0.008(Day)!+!H0.127(%'Forest*MaxTemp)!+!H0.0001(Edge*MaxTemp)!+!0.001(%'Forest*Edge*MaxTemp)!

Science!

Management&Ac;ons

• Even!if!we!know!what!response!strategy!is!needed,!tac/cally,!how!

do!we!get!it!done?!

• Landscape!and!resource!planning!is!difficult!!

• Biology!is!one!thing!•  Efficiency,!Policy,!Budgets,!

Stakeholders,!Legali/es,!Manpower,!

Technology,!etc.!etc….!

Let’s&Discuss…

Managers,'planners,'and'coordinators'

• What!uncertainty!are!you!

dealing!with?!

• Where!have!you!been!able!to!

reduce!uncertainty?!

Reducing&Uncertainty:&Regional&Science&Coordina;on&

Climate&!&Impacts&!&Response&!&Ac;ons

Reducing&Uncertainty:&Decision&Support&Frameworks&

Climate&!&Impacts&!&Response&!&Ac;ons

• Decision!Analysis!•  Linking!of!models!to!

translate!impacts!

and!evaluate!

responses!

• Accounts!for!Uncertainty!and!

Risk!

•  Integrates!policy!considera/ons!

Planning&under&uncertainty

• Uncertainty!will!always!be!present!

• Approaches!that!can!allow!planning:!

• Despite!the!uncertainty!• That!use!the!uncertainty!• That!help!reduce!the!uncertainty!

Planning&under&Uncertainty:&Resilience&Planning

• O]en!does!not!provide!clear!guidance!on!specific!policy!or!

management!alterna/ves.!

Planning&under&Uncertainty:&Resilience&Planning

Building'a'capacity:'

•  for!a!system!to!absorb!changes!

and!s/ll!func/on!(maintain!key!

processes)!

•  to!transform!to!a!new!mode!of!

opera/on!if!the!old!mode!

becomes!untenable!

Planning&under&Uncertainty:&Scenario&Planning

•  Thinking!crea/vely!and!systema/cally!about!complex!

futures!!

•  Sets!of!plausible!stories,!supported!with!data!and!

simula/ons,!about!how!the!

future!might!unfold!from!

current!condi/ons!under!

alterna/ve!choices.!

Melillo et al., 2014: Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program.$


•  Special!Report!on!Emissions!Scenarios!(SRES)!of!the!IPCC!


Session!on!Scenario!Planning!coming!up!

!!

3:00!in!Marriod!Center,!11th!Floor!

!

Planning&under&Uncertainty:&Decision&Analysis

• Uses!available!informa/on!to!make!

op/mal!decisions!under!uncertainty!

• Uncertainty!is!represented!by!assuming!possible!impacts/changes!

with!probabili/es!!

• Choose!a!strategy/ac/on!from!a!set!of!

alterna/ves!

• Outcomes!are!a!joint!product!of!the!

benefit!of!the!ac/on!and!the!

probability!of!the!state!


• Clearly!defines!the!problem!and!objec/ve!for!

decisionHmaking!

• Brings!together!quan/ta/ve!informa/on!in!

a!coherent!framework!

•  Transparent!and!repeatable!analysis!for!

arriving!at!decision!!

• Requires!more!informa/on!

than!is!likely!to!exist!Science!and!Models!

that!predict!outcomes!


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

100%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Ris

k Percent Decline

Response!of!Prairie!Warblers!to!Climate!Change,!Urbaniza/on,!and!Conserva/on!Scenarios!

Planning&under&Uncertainty:&Decision&Making

Later!Session:!

“Start!from!the!beginning:!DecisionHfocused!

projects!for!coHproducing!science”!!

!

3:00!in!Marriod!Center,!11th!Floor!

!

Paris&Agreement

“…$holding$the$increase$in$the$global$average$temperature$to$well$below$2 °C$above$preHindustrial$

levels$and$to$pursue$efforts$to$limit$the$temperature$increase$to$1.5 °C$above$preHindustrial$levels,$

recognizing$that$this$would$significantly$reduce$the$risks$and$impacts$of$climate$change”.$

Robust&Temperature&Change&

RCP4.5&[2081V2100&–&1986V2005],&42&CMIP5&

(Xie&et&al.,&2015,&Nature'CC)

December!2015!

The'global'average'temperature'has'already'increased'by'about'1oC'rela@ve'to'preXindustrial'levels.'

2016'

Higher!Emissions!

4.0X6.1oC'

High!Emissions!

2.6X3.7oC'

Lower!Emissions!

2.0X3.0oC'

Warming'rela@ve'to'1850X1900'

Climate&Change&Projec;ons

Source:!Adapted!from!

IPCC!AR5!(2013)!

Warming&in&Massachuse`s

OBSERVATIONS' The'annual'mean'temperature'in'MA'has'already'increased'by'about'2.4oF'(1.3oC)'since'1895'–'faster'than'the'rise'in'global'mean'temperature.'

2016'

1895'

Source:!NOAA!

Northeast&Summer&(JunVAug)&Projec;ons 2042V2069&minus&1980V1998

Uncertainty'in'T'and'P'projec@ons'H  36'models'H  wet'as'well'as'dry'projec@ons'H  about'1.5X5'C'increase'in'T'

Karmalkar!et!al.,!in$prep!

Uncertainty'in'T'and'P'not'reduced'significantly'even'aPer'elimina@ng'most'

models'based'on'their'performance'

DRY'

P'

T'

WET'

Karmalkar!and!Bradley,!2017$

NE'

NE'

NE'

Following!Hawkins$and$SuRon,$2009$

Uncertainty&in&Precipita;on&Projec;ons

Effect!of!using!

different!models!

Effect!of!using!

different!scenarios!

Effect!of!yearHtoH

year!varia/ons!

The!impact!of!different!scenarios!(RCPs)!on!regional!precipita/on!projec/ons!is!negligible!throughout!the!

twentyHfirst!century!compared!to!uncertain/es!associated!with!internal!variability!and!model!diversity.!

!

Recommenda/on:!An!assessment!of!regional!impacts!should!be!based!on!climate!informa/on!obtained!

from!a!large!number!of!models!with!diverse!outcomes!instead!of!puung!too!much!emphasis!on!using!

different!scenarios!for!a!handful!of!models.!

80%!of!projec/ons!reach!

2C!globally!by!2060!

80%!of!projec/ons!reach!2C!in!

the!NE!by!2040!

Karmalkar!and!Bradley,!2017!

CONUS&regional&warming&rates&

"  Northeast!is!the!fastest!warming!region!in!CONUS;!Midwest!a!close!second;!South!US!is!the!

slowest!but!sill!warms!faster!than!global!average!T!

"  Timing:!NE!reaches!the!2oC!mark!about!20!years!before!global!mean!T!

"  Magnitude:!When!global!mean!T!reaches!2oC,!NE!is!warmer!by!3oC!

NE'

GLOBE'

CONUS&Regional&T&and&P&Changes&for&Paris&Temperature&Targets

Karmalkar!and!Bradley,!2017!

ANN'JJA'DJF'

1.5oC! 2oC!

Substan/ally!higher!

warming!in!winter!

!

Planning'Under' Uncertainty'€¦ · Framing&areas&of&uncertainty&in&resource& planning Decision!...

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