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CANH E
WIN?
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Executive Summary
• Ted Cruz has committed his entire life to the Foundational principles that made
America great. From reciting the Constitution to Chambers of Commerce as ateenager; to his time in the Bush Administration; to his powerful victories before
the Supreme Court; and finally, as one of the leading conservatives in the Senate,
Ted has been a Courageous Conservative.
• If Republicans nominate a conservative in 2016, there is a good chance we can
win the White House
• The Establishment however never seems to learn that moderates don’t win
• The 2016 Primary will be completely different from past primaries due to changes
to the primary calendar and the number of well-funded candidates
• Ted Cruz’s leadership role on the most important issues that matter to primary
voters: Marriage, Religious Freedom, Immigration, Common Core, ObamaCare,
Debt and the Second Amendment uniquely position him to build the coalition of
votes necessary to win a crowded primary
• Cruz has the most complete portfolio of campaign assets
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IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATEwith a terrible campaign almost won.
Romney lost by only 428,000 votes in just five states:
Ohio 103,000
Florida 70,000
Colorado 113,000
New Mexico 76,000
Nevada 66,000
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IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATEwith a terrible campaign almost won.
• He was the one man on the planet who could not use ObamaCare as a
wedge issue
• Romney HAD NO WEDGE OR MAGNET ISSUE to turn out the voters
he needed
• Social media amateurs
• Campaign manager could not harness the power of data analytics for
message creation, message targeting, and performance evaluation
• NO GROUND GAME – Moderates don’t attract block -walkers
• Terrible performance with Hispanics
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IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATEwith a terrible team almost won Florida.
• In 2012, 49% of the states Cuban Voters supported Obama while 47%
supported Romney
• Bush won 75% and 78% of the Cuban Vote in 2000 and 2004.
• Obama carried Florida by only 70,000 votes
• There are 1,400,000 Cubans in Florida
• Cuban Cruz would have only needed 66% of the Cuban vote in order to have
won Florida
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IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATEwith a terrible campaign lost Ohio due to record
African-American turnout.
• African-American Voter Participation increased 50% with Obama
• In 2012 African-Americans made up 15% of Ohio Voters and they went 96% for
Obama
• In 2004, African-Americans made up 10%
• Black population is flat to declining, roughly 12.1% of Ohio’s total population
• Assuming that African-American support for the Democratic candidate hadreverted the 2004 levels results in a vote swing of 193,648 – Republicans would
have won
• Hillary will have to drive African-American turnout 25% over 2004 levels to win
Ohio
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IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE
with a terrible campaign managed to lose Virginia.
• Since 2000, African-American citizen voting-age population actually shrank
from 20% to 18.7% in Virginia by 2012
• Likewise, since 2000, the Hispanic share of potential voters also shrank from 3.4%
to 2.5% by 2012
• Yet Romney managed to generate a turnout rate among non-Hispanic whites
(66.4%) that was not only lower than among African-Americans (69.5%), but lower
than among Hispanics (71.9%)
• If African-American turnout just reverts to 2004 levels (54.8%) – and nothing else
changes – the Republican presidential nominee will win the state in 2016
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IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATEwith a terrible campaign did not win New Mexico because his
Vermont based Campaign Czar did not understand Hispanics.
• 46% of state is Hispanic
• Romney lost New Mexico, who has a Republican Governor, by 10 points or
81,000 votes
• Romney only captured 21% of the Hispanic vote compared with Bush, who got
40% in 2004
• Romney’s disgraceful performance was hurt further by the fact that New Mexico
former Governor, Gary Johnson, ran as a Libertarian garnering 3.5%
• Rafael “Ted” Cruz can achieve George Bush totals giving him 62,000 additional
Hispanics, while the Democrats lose 62,000, would more than offset Romney’s
81,000 loss margin
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IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATEwith a terrible campaign did not win Colorado because his
Vermont based Campaign Czar did not understand Hispanics.
• Hispanics made up 14% in 2012 and expected to make up 15% in 2016
• Romney only received 23% of Hispanic vote versus 40% for Bush in 2004
• Cruz achieving Bush numbers with Hispanics and turning out Republicans makes
Colorado, who just elected a conservative Senator, a very achievable target
• Cruz would still need to turn out additional married, white people in order to carry
state
• Cruz positioned to do well with the Libertarians in the state
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Looking to 2016
242 296
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Hillary 2016 Strategy
• MAKE THE RACE ABOUT HISTORY, NOT HER
• Hold on to as many African-American voters as she can
• Increase turnout amoung single women to offset reduction of African-American
vote and potential losses with Hispanics
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Republican Must Do’s for 2016
• Perform better with Latino voters in Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and
Nevada - Target George Bush’s average of 40% (he got 56% in Florida)
• Shrink the gender gap that has increased to 4% favoring women
• Turn out white, married people over the age of 40 by focusing on wedge issues
and targeting evangelicals
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Republicans win with wedge and magnet
that drive their voters to turnout
issues
Reagan 1980: The Economy and National Security
Bush (Atwater – South Carolina Conservative) 1988:
Willie Horton/Flag Burning *A+
Bush (Baker – Establishment Republican) 1992: No Wedge Issue
Bush 2000: Gay Marriage, Restore Honor and Dignity to the White House
Midterms 2010: ObamaCare
Midterms 2014: ObamaCare/Immigration
Every Senator in 2014 ran as a Ted Cruz Republican
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Moderate Candidates are Losers
More Conservative c •
GW Bush (2000)"
GW Bush (2004)"
Reagan (1980)"
Reagan (1984)"
McCain (2008)"
Romney (2012)"
GHW Bush (1988)"
GHW Bush (1992)"
Ford (1976)"
Dole (1996)"
0" 12" 23" 35" 46" 58"
• Rove won for Bu•sh by driving Evangelical turnout – Now he loses by doing the opposite= winning campaign
• Exception was when Bush 41 ran as a hard conservative in 1988 with Atwater and Reagan’s help
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The Establishment Never Learns
• Operate under the Media-created myth that moderates win elections
• Give away through candidate selection key wedge and magnet issues that are
must-haves in order to drive turnout and win
• Successful Wedge Issues in the past have been:
- Willie Horton/flag burning in 1988
- Gay Marriage, Restoring Honor to the White House in 2000
- ObamaCare in 2010 and 2014
• In 2012 they chose the one man on the planet who could not take advantageof the most effective wedge issue: ObamaCare
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The Establishment Never Learns
• For 2016 they have chosen, Jeb Bush. The one person on the planet that
forfeits Republicans on every Hillary wedge issue:
- National Security
- Immigration
- Future Not Past
- Common Core
- Foreign Money
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Ted Cruz is the only leading candidate
who
on
has a consistent/strong record
the top Clinton wedge issues
Money
Immigration and Common Core Very Important
Common
CoreImmigration
Future
Not Past
National
Security
Foreign
CRUZ
BUSH NO NO NO NO NO
HUCKABEE NO - NO
PAUL NO
RUBIO NO
WALKER NO NO
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White Vote Shrank in 2012
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Evangelicals are not voting
Evan euca IVoter sNumberof
# of Evenfe l l oe l Voters
% o f Eleotorete
# of CVAPE v angeli cal s
# of E v ang eli cal Vot ers who
sta ed tiome
22.1million
21%
74.5million
52.4million
25.7 million
21%
79.4 million
53.7million
30.2 million
23%
83.2million
53million
29.7million
23%
86.7 million
57
million
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In 2004 Rove drove conservative and religious
voter growth to new highs – but thatslowed and stopped
progress
POPULATION-0.1 .
.•·················
.·
.·•
.·:
·····················
···························································································································
...
...
:
../.............
...........
-0.3
.CONSERVATIVES..
..... ...
. .
.::
.
.•
:-0.4 . ···············
·•·······
....
...........•.-0.5 ·······
·········
·········RELIGIOUS.
0
··············
·······
.
'96
.
.l .:•••O
-0.6
'04 '08 '12
The only time Republicans got more of the popular vote since 1988.
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WHERE WE ARE
TODAY
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GOP NOMINATION CONSIDERATION II
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METHODOLOGY
! 739 autodial phone interviews
conducted nationwideamong likely
Republican primary voters
! Conducted May 15-16, 2015
! Margin of error is +/- 3.6%
! Comparativedata resultspulled
from February 2015 polling
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OF NOTE
! This is a baseline study of Republican
primaryvoter attitudes. The Republican
field and attitudesof primary voters are
dynamicand we fully expect the underlying
structure of the electorate to continue
evolving in the coming months.
! Successfulvote coalitions among the early
primaryand caucuses may likely only
require 20-40%support.
! This survey was conducted by TargetPoint
Consulting for its own use and was not
conducted on behalf of any candidate or
associated organization.
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CANDIDATE AWARENESS AND
CONSIDERATION
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Pleaserate each candidateon a 7-point scale.Press1 if you would almost certainlyvote for that candidate. Press2 if you would
stronglyconsider supporting that candidate. Press7 if you would almost certainlynever vote for that candidate. Press6 if it is unlikely you would
ever support that candidate. Press4 if you are completely neutral. However, you can use any numberfrom
1-7 to ratethese candidates.If you don’t knowthe candidate well enoughto rate them,Press 9. Those who selected 1-7 for a candidatewere
considered ‘Aware,’ while those who selected 9 were considered ‘Not Aware.’Total
February
Awareness1-7 Aware 9 Not Aware
94JEB BUSH
MIKEHUCKABEE
92
RAND PAUL 89
CHRIS CHRISTIE 89
MARCO RUBIO 85
TED CRUZ 80
-DONALD TRUMP
RICK PERRY
86
RICK SANTORUM 83
SCOTT WALKER 75
BEN CARSON 70
LINDSEYGRAHAM
-
BOBBY JINDAL 69
CARLYFIORINA
50
JOHN KASICH 5957 43
66 35
69 32
70 30
75 25
75 26
81 19
82 19
84 17
84 16
86 14
86 14
90 10
91 9
94 7
CANDIDATE AWARENESS
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Please rate each candidate on a 7-point scale. Press 1 if you would almost certainlyvote for that candidate. Press 2 if you
would stronglyconsider supporting that candidate. Press 7 if you would almost certainlynever vote for that candidate. Press 6 if it is
unlikely you wouldever support that candidate. Press 4 if you are completely neutral.However, you can use any number from 1-7 to
rate these candidates.If you don’t know the candidatewell enoughto rate them,Press 9.
Mean
Scores1 Certainly Consider 2-3 Consider 4+9 Neutral 5-6 Not Consider 7 Certainly Not Consider
MARCO RUBIO 2.99
SCOTT WALKER 3.01
JEB BUSH 3.57
MIKE HUCKABEE 3.48
TED CRUZ 3.51
BEN CARSON 3.31
RAND PAUL 3.80
RICK PERRY
3.90
3.88BOBBY JINDAL
RICK SANTORUM 4.08
CHRIS CHRISTIE 4.42
CARLY FIORINA 4.09
JOHN KASICH 4.00
DONALD TRUMP 4.91
LINDSEY GRAHAM 4.63
*Chart order is by total 1-3 consideration.
3 13 45 17 22
5 15 29 16 35
7 15 59 11 9
5 20 52 11 13
6 23 31 18 22
6 26 39 16 13
6 26 46 12 9
6 31 38 15 11
11 34 26 17 13
19 29 37 8 8
15 33 31 10 12
18 32 24 14 12
18 33 21 13 15
24 29 37 5 5
22 39 24 9 7
CANDIDATE CONSIDERATION
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Comparing the total awarenessof each candidateto their 1-3 consideration score we see candidates who have higher awareness and popularity overall (Bush, Rubio, Huckabee, Paul, and Cruz) and we see that a group clustered toward the bottom leftquadrant that are less unknown.
CONSIDERATION
CONVERSION RATE
WELL-KNOWN LESS POPULAR CANDIDATES WELL-KNOWN TOP CHOICES100Paul Bush
Huckabee
Cruz
Christie
Perry
Santorum
90 TrumpRubio
80
Walker Graham JindalCarson70
Fiorina60
Kasich
50
40
30
20
10
LESS KNOWN/UNDERPERFORMING POPULAR LOWER-RECOGNITION0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Total Consideration% 1-3
*Announced/Unannounced candidates are listed based on current status at the time of the poll anddoes not account for
candidates with endof May andJune planned announcements
*Conversion rate was calculated by
dividing the total consideration (1-3)
score by total awareness 1-7.
T o t a l A w a r e n e s s %
Rubio 71%
Walker 71%
Carson 64%
Cruz 57%
Huckabee 55%
Bush 54%
Paul 50%
Jindal 46%
Perry 45%
Santorum 40%
Kasich 39%
Fiorina 38%
Christie 34%
Trump 24%
Graham 23%
Unannounced Candidates
Announced Candidates
HIGHESTCONSIDERATION V. AWARENESS
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Below is the total consideration (1-3) for each candidate from our February poll and our current May poll.
0 0
Rubio Walker Bush Huckabee Cruz Carson Paul Perry Jindal Santorum Christie Fiorina Kasich Trump* Graham*
*not included in February Poll
F E B R U A R
Y
M A Y
16
20
23 22
25
13
33
29
34 3335
32
43
37
4443
47 4748
43
51 50
54
51
58
53
61
54
COMPARED CONSIDERATIONS
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Below is the change in consideration(1-3) for each candidate from our February poll to our May poll.
FIORINA +12
RUBIO +7
CRUZ +5
PAUL +1
CARSON 0
HUCKABEE-1
-1
-1
JINDAL
KASICH
-3
-3
BUSH
SANTORUM
CHRISTIE-4
WALKER -5
PERRY-6
*Lindsey Graham and Donald Trump were not i ncluded in February Poll
CHANGE IN CONSIDERATION
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reasonable compromisesto get th ingsdone , or should
compromise , even if thingsdon’t get done in the short-run?
Social Conservative
Mainstream
Get Things principles
44
Could Support Any
Libertarian
Unsure
CANDIDATE PREFERENCES
Generally speaking
what type of
candidate do you prefer nominating?
FEBRUARY 29
MAY 28
24
25
20Tea Party
16
14
15
5
6
8
9
Do you think that the Republicannominee, if elected president,
should reach out to Democrats and work to find
they try to lead on strong conservative principles and not
Stand by
Done
56
In our February poll, the partywas
split on this issue.
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How would you describe your views in thearea of social/fiscal issues?
51
41
3432
17
12
5 32 1
VeryCons
SomewhatCons
Moderate SomewhatLib
VeryLib
17
#
S O C I A L
F I S C A L
• 30% of Republican primary voters
are both very socially and very
fiscally conservative.
• 70% are both socially conservative
and fiscally conservative.
• 16% are socially moderate or liberal
and fiscally conservative.
ISSUE PREFERENCES
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Below is the politicalbreakdown of our designated clusters. The dotted circles represent the
clusters from our Februarypollingand the red circlesrepresent where the clustersare now.
Social
Tea Party 17%
Conservatives
19% ModeratesUncommitted
Partisans
Percentage of cluster that chose “get thingsdone”
Bubble sizes represent relative size of each cluster.
P e r c e n t a g e o f c l u s t e r t h a
t i s b o t h
v
e r y
f i s c a l l y
a n d
s o c i a l l y
c o n s e r v a t i v e
Since our February Poll, we no longer
conservatives. Our February group of
We have also seen the equilibrium of
16%
Conservatives see a cluster of mainstream
“establishment” voters has fragmented into
what we show as mainstream
16% moderates and pragmaticpartisans.
the party move slightly lessUndecided conservativeand more pragmatic.
8%Dissatisfied 10%
14% Mainstream
Moderates Pragmatic
UPDATED POLITICAL CLUSTERING
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We looked at each candidate’ s total consideration score (1-3) and subtracted their derived ballot score to show the potentialgrowth of each
candidate. Below are the current and potential ballot results.
Current Derived Ballot Potential Growth
MARCO RUBIO
SCOTT WALKER
TED CRUZ
MIKE HUCKABEE
JEB BUSH
BEN CARSON
RAND PAUL
RICK PERRY
BOBBY JINDAL
RICK SANTORUM
CHRIS CHRISTIE
CARLY FIORINA
JOHN KASICH
DONALD TRUMP
LINDSEY GRAHAM
*Candidates arerank ordered by potential growth.
9 52
9 44
5 43
9 41
11 40
8 39
6 38
35
1 32
30
3 260 25
20
18
0 16
POTENTIAL GROWTH
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We lookedat the top derived ballot scoresbased on voter preference for a particular nominee:
social conservative, mainstream, tea party, any, or libertarian candidate. Below are each of their top 6
choices and the number of undecided votersbased on these nominee types.
Social Conservatives Mainstream Tea Party Could Support Any Libertarian
12 19 14 17 23HUCKABEE BUSH CRUZ RUBIO PAUL
11 11 11 11 12BUSH RUBIO WALKER
WALKER
BUSH
10 9 9 10 7WALKER
HUCKABEE CARSON BUSH WALKER
9 8 7 7 6CARSON WALKER
PAUL CARSON CARSON
9 7 7 6 6RUBIO CARSON HUCKABEE HUCKABEE CHRISTIE
4 7 5 6 5CRUZ CHRISTIE RUBIO PAUL RUBIO
32 24 27 34 UNDECIDED 32UNDECIDED UNDECIDED UNDECIDED UNDECIDED
BALLOT AND NOMINEE TYPE
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TED HAS REALGROWTH POTENTIAL
WITH EVANGELICALS
AND LIBERTARIANS.
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THIS PRIMARY IS
REALLY DIFFERENT.
Schedule is significantly different than past years – favors more conservative
candidate
The first 14 states (through Super Tuesday) have 574 delegates (83%) that will
come from conservative states
At least six well-funded candidates – making it very difficult for Establishment to
destroy the conservative challenger
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The Calendar leans
SOUTHDELEGATES THROUGH SUPER TUESDAY
Sou
th
North
Tot
al
47
7
69°/o
31°/o
216
693
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The Calendar leans
RIGHTDELEGATES THROUGH SUPER TUESDAY
Conservative
73° 10
507
Moderat
e
27 ° 10
186
Total
693
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The Calendar leans
CRUZ
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A number of well-financed candidates
Historically, the Establishment Candidate uses his financial resources to destroy the leading
challenger who has already been weakened by the other challenger candidates.
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TED ISWELL-POSITIONED
TO WIN THE
PRIMARY.
C h b i t tl i ht th i
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Cruz has been consistently right on the issuesthat matter most to primary voting blocs.
Sources: "
https://www.conservativereview.com/2016-presidential-candidates"http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJNBCpoll05042015.pdf ""
http://www.ontheissues.org/Jeb_Bush.htm "http://www.ontheissues.org/Scott_Walker.htm "
BUSH HUCKABEE CRUZ PAUL RUBIO WALKER
EDUCATION
/ COMMON CORE
IMMIGRATION
SOCIAL / RELIGIOUSISSUES
STRONG NATIONALDEFENSE
DEFICIT / GOV’TSPENDING
OBAMACARE
SECONDAMENDMENT
http://www.conservativereview.com/2016-presidential-candidateshttp://www.conservativereview.com/2016-presidential-candidateshttp://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJNBCpoll05042015.pdfhttp://www.ontheissues.org/Jeb_Bush.htmhttp://www.ontheissues.org/Scott_Walker.htmhttp://www.ontheissues.org/Scott_Walker.htmhttp://www.ontheissues.org/Jeb_Bush.htmhttp://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJNBCpoll05042015.pdfhttp://www.conservativereview.com/2016-presidential-candidates
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Cruz campaign has the most
complete portfolio of “Assets”
Small Dollar
Donors
Large Super
PAC
Social Media
Followers
Grass Roots
Support
Sophisticated
Data Analytics
CRUZ
BUSH ? NO NO
HUCKABEE NO NO
PAUL NO
RUBIO
WALKER ? ?
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Cruz in best position to run an ‘Obama’ caliber
campaign in 2016
• A proven data-driven infrastructure that is a small dollar fundraising and voter ID juggernaut. Eight full-time data scientists on staff.
• Raised $10 million from 90,000 donors in the first 100 days of campaign
• Campaign managed by great executives not people who can write and produce TV
commercials
• Creative/Messaging Team led by one of the world’s premier firms hired by the
Establishment to rebrand the Party - They want to work with Ted. The creative minds
behind the Salvation Army Campaign, Chick-fil-A, Home Depot, Paul Harvey “I am a
farmer Superbowl ad”
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Cruz in best position to run an ‘Obama’ caliber
campaign in 2016
• Cruz has set a new standard for social media for Republicans both in the quantityof
follower but just as importantly the effectiveness of the interactions.
• Has 8 million email addresses
• Grassroots organization is nationwide not just Iowa – the only candidate even close is
Paul
• Great communicator that can appeal to young people
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Ted showing great strength
in must-win South Carolina
Straw Poll Results
Greenville and Spartanburg victories are most impressive as they are two
largest and most populated GOP counties in the state
Greenville Anderson County Spartanburg Aiken Dorchester
Cruz 28% 27% 32% 36% 30%
Bush 5% 1% N/A N/A N/A
Carson 9% 1% N/A N/A 16%
Graham 3% 6% N/A N/A 4%
Huckabee 3% 9% N/A N/A N/A
Paul 3% 1% 7% 6% 7%
Rubio 8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Walker 22% 25% 30% 32% 25%
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Enhancing Cruz Brand
• A powerful biography comes out in late June
• Associated book tour
• Richards Group hired along with a team of branding experts
• Keep the Promise rolls out a positive campaign in key primary states around
the first debate
• Real upside potential - Ted is polling very low with Evangelicals as many are
unaware of his deep faith
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3 of the Top 10 Donors on Ted Cruz
Top Individual Donors to Conservative Super PACs – 2012
Rank Donor Total Given
1 Adelson, Sheldon & Miriam $91,780,000
2 Simmons, Harold $25,665,000
3 Perry, Robert $23,450,000
4 RickeEs, John $13,050,000
5 Mercer, Robert $5,409,354
6 Thiel, Peter $4,735,000
7 Childs, John $4,225,000
8 Perenchio, A Jerrold & Margaret $4,100,000
9 Rowling, Robert $3,635,00010 McNair, Robert $3,175,000
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To elect a principled conservative, donors can’t
wait until November or December to decide
• Television rates start to skyrocket in December making it impossible for
candidates to define themselves and their views so therefore are defined by the
Media
• By January there is limited space at any price
• In September the major news organizations will decide which reporters will
cover which candidates – the stronger the candidate is with money is the key
factor to get the most well-known reporters which translates into earned
media
• Fundraising success breeds fundraising success
• The competition for grassroots leaders is intense and fundraising momentum
is a key driver
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CANH E
WIN?