8/10/2019 Did Mahinda Believe He Will Win

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Did Mahinda Believe He Will

Win?

by Vishawamithra 1984 -13/01/2015“ Nationalism is power hunger tempered by sel-de!eption"# -$eorge %rwell&es' he did" (t was not only a hope or wish" (t was a strong !on)i!tion and belie thathe would win and win !on)in!ingly" *e was a hardened +street-smart+ politi!ian witho)er 45 years o e,perien!e in politi!s" *e had held oi!e power. sin!e 190 irst asone o the youngest e)er parliamentarians' then rom 1994 onwards as a inister andthen as rime inister and rom 2005 as resident" *e new and !ould not thin oany other lie" lso he was battle-s!arred ater two su!!essul residential ele!tions in2005 and 2010"

(n the 2015 !ampaign' ater the initial thunderbolt o realiing that it was his lieutenant'aithripala irisena and not 6anil 7i!remesinghe that he had to ight' he re!o)eredrom ob)ious mental depression and got into the ray !heered on by giganti! !rowds atea!h rally" *is +!ampaign sta# soon too o)er" hen they did something grie)ouslywrong" hey !reated an euphoria o )i!tory" hey also had more than enough moneyto spend and the a!ilities o the print and ele!troni! media o the state se!tor to useand abuse with impunity" Not e)en the le!tions :ommissioner or :ourt orders !ouldstop him"

7ithout looing at the statisti!al reality o the )ote by the amils N.' the uslimsand the up!ountry (ndian state population e)en without hondaman.' ahinda;sstrategists made up their own minds that the resident would win" hey entertained noother )iews and !ould see' hear or spea o nothing else but !ertain )i!tory"

“wo days beore the ele!tions and on le!tion <ay' this !olumnist spoe to our osu!h hea)yweights

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and ased them what they thought o the would-be out!ome o the )ote#hese !ampaign pundits brushed away and de)alued the amil )ote by saying that theamils would not )ote in their numbers and many would also stay away rom pollingbe!ause neither the !andidate nor the !ause was theirs" he strategists did not sitdown and !learly study the N )ote in ea!h o the Northern and astern ele!toratesand also in other areas lie :olombo and =andy where amil )oters li)ed" he N

)ote was a silent but sure )ote" >ittle did they now that r" :handrahasan' a lawyerby proession and the younger son o the amous amil leader' the late r" "?"V":hel)anayagam had !ome to ri >ana rom (ndia and was !ampaigning in ?ana tomae sure o the amil )ote or aithripala"

 s regards the uslim )otes whi!h e)entually swept lie a sunami or aithripala.ahinda@s strategists argued that not ll uslims would )ote against ahinda" heytoo the )iew that the mainstream uslims were shrewd businessmen and theyappre!iated the stability o the 6aAapasa regime !ompared to an unstable regime thatthe %pposition !ould oer" lso' that the uslims highly )alued a re!ent programme

whereby the ri >ana Broad!asting :orporation >B:. had enabled uslimoula)is to broad!ast their daily prayers (sland-wideC a pra!ti!e whi!h had beenstopped by a upreme :ourt Audgment o ormer :hie ?usti!e arath il)a" hesesame resident@s strategists at >B: argued that this gesture alone whi!h theresident had permitted' would sway uslim )otes in ahinda@s a)our" s regards the(ndian state 7orers o the Nuwara liya and Badulla distri!ts' ahinda@s strategistshad pla!ed all their bets on hondaman@s :eylon 7orers :ongress :7:. to deli)er!onsiderable)otes or the Betel >ea"

“7ithout Duestion' the V and newspaper ad)ertisements o the 6aAapasa !ampaign

were e,!ellent"Both in )olume and Duality they s!ored o)er the %pposition that had ewerad)ertisements due to their meager inan!ial resour!es#

 part rom showing e,!ellent V ad)ertisements on de)elopment mainly highwaysand urban de)elopment.' ahinda@s !ampaign team !on!entrated on spreading a earpsy!hosis among the inhala Buddhists the maAority o the )oters. that the N anduslim alignment with aithripala irisena would weaen and e)entually destroy the!ountry@s unitary state" he N' they said' was the > or the igers in disguise andnow the uslims were also demanding separate dministrati)e distri!ts" he amil

<iaspora and (nternational !onspira!ies led by the Enited tates were truly behindaithripala@s !ampaign" his was the main plan on whi!h ahinda@s strategistswaled" hey argued that while the 2010 ele!tion was won be!ause o gratitude to theresident or winning the war' the 2015 ele!tion !ould be won by !reating a earpsy!hosis o a return to !onli!t"

 !!ording to ahinda@s !ampaign team' the morning till night !o)erage rom state-!ontrolled V C 6upa)ahini and (N supplemented by the pri)ate V stations Cwarna)ahini and <erana C was winning the hearts and minds o the maAority o

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inhala/Buddhist )oters" 7ithout Duestion' the V and newspaper ad)ertisements othe 6aAapasa !ampaign were e,!ellent" Both in )olume and Duality they s!ored o)erthe %pposition that had ewer ad)ertisements due to their meager inan!ial resour!es"

wo days beore the ele!tions and on le!tion <ay' this !olumnist spoe to ourhea)yweights and ased them what they thought o the would-be out!ome o the )ote"

 ll our were adamant that ahinda would win" wo days beore the poll they said hewould win by 5FG to 44G" %n le!tion <ay they had not !hanged their )iews about)i!tory but had lowered the winning per!entage to 53G to 4G"

his !olumnist told them that the aithripala !amp was also !onident o winning andwere taling o a 5FG win and so were the maAority o the published sur)eys" *owe)er'ahinda@s strategists would not a!!ept any !ontrary )iew other than a sure win" %neo those strategists this !olumnist spoe to' was a well-nown person who writes aoliti!al :olumn to a unday paper" he other was the head o a state-ownedele!troni! media institution" he third was a diplomat re!alled by the go)ernment or

ele!tion wor and the ourth was a )ery senior oi!er in the resident@s ediaEnit"7hat was amaing was that all o them were !on)in!ed o )i!tory and wereeeding this same )iew to ahinda 6aAapasa" here was no one in his !lose group or groups that dared to dier or oer another )iewpoint"

his !olumnist !an )ou!h that what happened to ahinda 6aAapasa on this o!!asiondid not happen to either resident ?"6" ?ayewardene or resident 6anasingheremadasa" heir go)ernments also !ontested ele!tions" hey also had strategistsand !onidants" But those strategists did not +eed# their bosses only with )i!torystories or say it was a sure win" lso' both ?ayewardene and remadasa had enough

politi!al e,perien!e and a!umen to siphon o doubts rom the truth and looelsewhere as well or the real ground situation" Hor instan!e' ?"6" ?ayewardene usedto get se)eral e,perts to do the same sur)ey without dis!losing that he had employedothers" t this ele!tion 6aAapasa was +lulled# to belie)e that he was winning and thathe !ould not lose"Hrom the a!!ounts now a)ailable to the media' it is reliably understood that ahinda6aAapasa' who had returned rom Beliatta ater !asting his )ote that morning' hadgone to the %perations 6oom at emple rees at about "00 p"m" in the night o theele!tion day" t about 9" p"m" he had retired or a short nap but when he returned tothe %perations 6oom %ps 6oom. at about 10"00 p"m" he had learnt to his dismay C

or the irst time o the !ampaign C that the postal )ote and )otes in some o theele!torates were more in a)our o aithripala" he residential networ alwaysenables early results to be gi)en by mobile phones rom the :ounting :entres toemple rees" By twel)e midnight ahinda new that the game was up and that thebattle will be lost" hus' in this !olumnist@s )iew resident 6aAapasa was !ompletelymisled by his !ampaign people and not told o the true ee!t at least o the statisti!alanalysis o the amil and uslim )otes in the North and ast and (ndian state7orers@ )otes in the up!ountry distri!ts" he amil and uslim )otes also had aserious impa!t on enlarging the )otes in a)our o aithripala in the :olombo <istri!t"

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he :olombo <istri!t )otes or ahinda were so mu!h lower than those he re!ei)ed in2010"

Nor did ahinda@s !ampaign sta apprise him o the true ee!t o the harm done bythe Bodhu Balaena BB. to the hearts and minds o the uslims" )en i the uslimleaders had stu! with ahinda' the ran and ile would not ha)e )oted or him" o the

uslims' be!ause o the atro!ities !ommitted by the BB in the luthgama regionwhi!h led to the deaths o uslims and serious property damage to their shops andhomes' ahinda was !onsidered *aram" mong the uslims the per!eption was andstill is. that the BB was !reated by $otabhaya' the resident@s powerul brother"

(t was about that time when it was !lear that aithripala irisena was winning thatahinda 6aAapasa is said to ha)e thought o a !oup to a)oid the ele!tion result"*owe)er' this plan had not su!!eeded be!ause it had been reAe!ted by the oli!e and

 rmy :hies who had been summoned to emple rees together with the ttorney-$eneral" ll these oi!ials had warned against any su!h step" his resulted in the

resident reDuesting a meeting with r" 6anil 7i!remesinghe and then inallydeparting emple trees +pea!eully# ater arewells to his sta"

he attempted !oup story is yet to untold but what is !ertain is that resident ahinda6aAapasa did truly belie)e that he will win the ele!tion until about 12 midnight on theele!tion night itsel I-

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