Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service

CAMS General Assembly, Athens, 14-16 June 2016

Matthieu Plu (Météo-France) and colleagues from Météo-France, INERIS, KNMI, CNRS-LA and IUP-Bremen

How do regional products perform?

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Plan

How are regional products evaluated?How do regional forecasts perform?How do regional analyses perform?How do regional re-analyses perform?Additional validation of regional products: columns and profiles

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How are regional products evaluated?

MonitoringFiltering

Verificationof regional CAMS products(NRT forecasts, analyses,re-analyses)

Surface observations from EIONET- « Near-Real time » (NRT) dataflow- A posteriori validated dataflow Data assimilation

in regional models(NRT analyses,re-analyses)

OzoneNO2SO2CO

PM10PM2.5

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How are regional products evaluated?

• Statistical indicators (bias, root-mean square error, correlation, FGE) are reported on the regional CAMS webpages and in quarterly (seasonal) reports,

• Scores computed for all models, and for the ENSEMBLE,

www.regional.atmosphere.copernicus.com

Ensemble and observationsof ozone concentrationson 03.07.2015 at 15 UTC

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How do regional forecasts perform?

• Performance of near-real time (NRT) forecasts of ozone during summer:

ENSEMBLEbi

asrm

se

corr

elat

ion

Members

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How do regional forecasts perform?

mod

ified

bia

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rmse

corr

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• Performance of NRT ensemble forecasts of PM10 during winter:

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How do regional analyses perform?

• Quarterly r.m.s.e of the ENSEMBLE ozone daily maximum: Ozone

Forecasts

~ 13 µg.m-3

Analyses~ 8 µg.m-3

(verification done against un-assimilated observations)

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Plan

How are regional products evaluated?How do regional forecasts perform?How do regional analyses perform?How do regional re-analyses perform?Additional validation of regional products: columns and profiles

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How do regional re-analyses perform?• ~2/3 observations for assimilation + ~1/3 observations for evaluation,• Evaluation of individual and Ensemble outputs is systematically performed with

statistical indicators (RMSE, bias, correlation) with European mapping over 3 categories of stations (rural, suburban and urban).

Ozone

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How do regional re-analyses perform?• ~2/3 observations for assimilation + ~1/3 observations for evaluation,• Evaluation of individual and Ensemble outputs is systematically performed with

statistical indicators (RMSE, bias, correlation) with European mapping over 3 categories of stations (rural, suburban and urban).

PM10

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How do regional re-analyses perform?

• Scores are also described over 5 main European sub-regions:• EUW (western), EUC (central), EUN (Northern), EUE

(Eastern), EUS (Southern)

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How do regional re-analyses perform?

• Assessment of the ability to detect threshold (daily exceedances for ozone and PM10)

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Plan

How are regional products evaluated?How do regional forecasts perform?How do regional analyses perform?How do regional re-analyses perform?Additional validation of regional products: columns and profiles

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Additional validation of regional products: columns and profiles

Observations considered:IAGOS aircraft O3, COOzone sondesMAX-DOAS NO2 (SO2, HCHO, Aerosol)Lidar and Ceilometer aerosol profilesTotal AODHigh-altitude in-situ observations

Satellite NO2, CO, O3Comparisons between global & regional analyses

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Additional validation of regional products: example

Anne Blechschmidt, IUP-Bremen

MAX-DOAS, De Bilt

MAX-DOAS: NO2 vertical column

Ensemble

Members

Hannah Clark, CNRS-LA

IAGOS profiles vs Members

Ozone CO

Hour of the day

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Conclusion

• Validation of all regional products publicly available in reports and website: www.regional.atmosphere.copernicus.com

• New: validation of regional products above the surface,

• Evaluation is important for users,

• Evaluation is also important for the service providers to to identify shortcomings and improve their products.