TRADEOFF ANALYSIS OF ADAPTATION STRATEGIES IN THE PHILIPPINES
Building an evidence base for climate change adaptation in agriculture: Philippines
Transcript of Building an evidence base for climate change adaptation in agriculture: Philippines
Building an evidence base for climate change adaptation in agriculture
Philippines
Outline
Getting evidence-based lessons from the field into sectoral/cross-
sectoral development planning (based on previous and on-going
DA and FAO work)
Linking DRR and CCA in the Agriculture and Fisheries Sector
Framework for Building Climate-Resilient Livelihoods and
Communities
Enhanced Climate Change Adaptation Capacity of
Communities in Contiguous Fragile Ecosystems in
the Cordilleras
Homestead Gardening (Integrated Food Systems)
Homestead Gardening (Integrated Food Systems)
Ability of the Good Practice CCA Option to Increase Resilience to Climate Change
a) Ability to address slow onsetting climate change impacts: Medium
b) Ability to reduce risk and impact of climate variability and extreme weather
events (and other hazards): High
c) Ability to enhance livelihood security: High
WIBI Mindanao Project
Addressing the Linkage Between Climate Change and Food Security
12
34
51
23
45
12
34
5
1950 2000 20501950 2000 2050
1950 2000 2050
Aurora Bataan Bulacan
Nueva Ecija Pampanga Tarlac
Zambales
yield Linear prediction
y_20c3m y_a2
y_a1b
yie
ld in
mt/h
a
year
Graphs by prov
Irrigated Rice Yield (Jul-Dec) in Region 3
2026-2030 2011-2030 2026-2030 2011-2030
BCM2
Farmgate Price 14.870 30.199 23.342 29.573 23.062
CNCM3
Farmgate Price 14.870 29.927 23.484 28.927 23.068
MPEH5
Farmgate Price 14.870 29.430 22.980 29.594 23.317
Global Circulation
ModelsBase (2010 for price)
PAM Model Projection (2011-2030)
A1B Scenario A2 Scenario
Hydrology:
Surface Water Availability for
Agriculture under CC
Crops:
Rice and Corn Yields under CC
Economy:
Farmgate prices under CC
Climate Projections
Philippines: National Context
Climate/ Disaster Risk Management and
Sustainable Development
Increased resilience
of livelihoods to
shocks
APPLY PREVENTION AND
MITIGATION MEASURES:
WATCH TO SAFEGUARD:
ENABLE THE
ENVIRONMENT:
PREPARE and RESPOND:
What we do on DRR and Resilience
Getting evidence-based lessons from the field into sectoral/cross-sectoral
development planning
Collation of conventional, locally upgraded and
scientifically-introduced good practice options (GPOs)
Synthesizing into potentially suitable GPOs for
location and hazard specific conditions
Scientific validation of adaptation options
Local prioritization/selection of GPOs
Vu
lner
abili
ty
Ass
essm
ent
Field-testing; Monitoring and evaluation;
with consideration of both climate-related risks and
hazards
Seasonal Assessments
Ca
rrie
d o
ut
at
va
rio
us
le
ve
ls:
Re
gio
na
l, P
rovin
cia
l, M
un
icip
al, a
nd
Co
mm
un
ity
DRR and CCA
iterative
How do you translate
uncertainty into
calculable risk?
Linking DRR and CCA in the Agriculture and Fisheries Sector
Priority Area 1: UNDERSTANDING RISK
Strategic Plan of Action for DRR
in Agriculture and Fisheries
Adaptation and Mitigation Initiative
in Agriculture (AMIA)
Enhance disaster risk reduction management (DRRM) information systems, geospatial systems and related databases
Enhance Monitoring and Early Warning Systems (EWS) of multiple threats
Priority 2 ENABLE ENVIRONMENT: Strengthen disaster risk reduction governance
Mainstream agriculture and fisheries sectoral developmental goals with DRR, CCA and sustainable land management (SLM) considerations into the Provincial Physical Framework Plan (PPFP) in the case of the province and the Comprehensive Land Use Plan (CLUP).
Promote DRR and CCA service delivery and practice
Development of Standardized VA tools – GIS & PVA;
Verification and development of decision support tools
Integrated Climate risk/Multi-hazard/crop suitability maps
Enhancement of Climate Information Systems for A&F
Landscape Planning Policy
CCA - Agriculture and Fisheries Financing Program
Linking DRR and CCA in the Agriculture and Fisheries Sector
Strategic Plan of Action for DRR
in Agriculture and Fisheries
Adaptation and Mitigation Initiative
in Agriculture (AMIA)
Reduce existing risks and prevent future risks in production systems and food chains;
Make farmers and fisherfolks more resilient through sustainable use of natural resources, and the adoption of appropriate technological and socio-economic practices and approaches.
Priority Area 3 REDUCE DISASTER RISKS FOR RESILIENCE Reduce underlying risk factors and build resilience
Formulating policies for building climate resilience
Establishment of model areas for implementing measures/practices/technologies for building community and livelihood resilience (climate)
AMIA Framework for Building Climate-Resilient Livelihoods and Communities
1. Establishing enabling environment (mainstreamed policies/practices, strengthened capacities, identified emerging opportunities)
2. Vulnerability assessment and risk targeting (key risks identified with exposure and adaptive capacity assessed)
3. Developing
knowledge
pool of CRA
options (comprehensive
resource pool of
CRA innovations)
6. Integrating CRAs within
agri-food systems and value
chains (resilience-driven
livelihoods)
7. CRA actions and outcomes
at-scale (implementation within and
across regions/systems)
5. Enhancing
services and
institutions (improved access
and local
relevance)
9. Program management and partnership platforms (high-performing teams and alliances)
8. Knowledge
management
for results (use-oriented
M&E and
evidence-based
decision-support)
4. CRA community action-
learning: initial phase (field-validated models and
innovations)
weather/climate information
services to enhance understanding
of risk and uncertainty
Stronger M&E for DRR
and CCA
Learning from previous/on-going
work/low hanging fruits
disaster risks/CC risks
Agriculture and Fisheries Modernization Plan for 2017-2023
Philippine Development Plan 2016 - 2022
Evidence for NAPS