BRIDGE TO INDIA: The India Solar Map

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INDIA SOLAR MAP

Jasmeet Khurana

BRIDGE TO INDIASeptember [email protected]

Key highlights

© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013 2

Disclaimer

© 2013 BRIDGE TO INDIA Energy Pvt. Ltd.All rights reservedApril 2013, New Delhi

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Mr. Jasmeet Khurana [email protected]


THE INDIA SOLAR MAP – AN OVERVIEWThe India Solar Map is an all-in-one map that depicts the trends of the Indian solar market through simple and well-designed graphics. We want this map to be a key ready reckoner for the solar industry in India. We would like companies to retain and refer to this map in order to understand the market developments and make sound strategic decisions based on the insights from this map.

BRIDGE TO INDIA interacts with various stakeholders in the market on a regular basis to maintain a comprehensive project database. We also have in-house market models in place. We have checked our numbers with the respective companies in order to avoid any misrepresentation. Wherever information was incomplete or unavailable we have worked with assumptions that have been spelt out in the map itself.

We would also request companies to help us achieve absolute accuracy by cooperating with us and sharing the details of their projects. This will help us work towards providing a reliable and truly representative picture of the industry for all to benefit from. We would continue with the ‘India Solar Map’ as a part of the portfolio of products we offer.

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Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA project database


State policies have been the primary drivers for projects commissioned till date

• 1.8 GW of projects have been commissioned as of August 2013

• Gujarat, Rajasthan and Maharashtra and are the top 3 states with the highest commissioned projects

• There are 12 state solar policies in place up till date

• With a considerable number of LOIs signed, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Punjab will see the most number of projects commissioned in the near future

Key takeaway

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Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA project database and industry interviews


Around 42% modules used in India are thin film

• First solar has the highest market share in the module market

• In crystalline modules, Canadian solar has the highest market share

• 5 out of top ten suppliers are Chinese

• No Indian manufacturer in top 5

• Vikram solar is the only Indian manufacturer to feature in the top 10

• About only 18% market is catered by the domestic manufacturers

Key takeaway

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40% of the market share is occupied by the top three EPC companies

• Moserbaer has done the maximum EPC in India

• Several new companies have forayed into the EPC space and are doing relatively well. For example, Rays experts, Chemtrolssolar and Cirus solar.

• 40% of the market share is occupied by the top 3 EPC providers

• Lanco has provided EPC to 75 MW Mahagenco project

Key takeaway

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Many project developers in India are doing EPC in-house

• Welspun Urja, as a project developer, has the maximum number of projects in India

• Moserbaer and Lancoare ranked in top 3 under own EPC as well

Key takeaway

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Around 50% of the market share is distributed between SMA and Bonfiglioli

• SMA continues to occupy the largest market share in India while Bonfiglioli is catching up fast.

• ABB has managed to gain a significant market share in the last couple of years

• Schneider started operations recently and has managed to build a 6% share.

Key takeaway

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In the next one year more than 700MW will be developed under state policies other than that of Gujarat

• 1.1 GW of solar PV capacity addition is expected in the next one year

• Most of this capacity addition would be under state policies and projects based on RPOs

• Going forward, no major installations are expected under the National Solar Mission and Gujarat solar policy

• Many new projects are expected to come up in the states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh

Key takeaway

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Tariffs have fallen by 63% in the last 3 years

*Levelized tariff offered in Tamil Nadu has been calculated considering 5% escalation for 10 years. Discount rate of 15% has been assumedTariffs offered in Tamil Nadu might change based on the consultation paper released by TERCAverage tariff offered under various policies are not weighted averagesTariffs offered in Gujarat are levelized

*Levelized tariff offered in Tamil Nadu has been calculated considering 5% escalation for 10 years. Discount rate of 15% has been assumedTariffs offered in Tamil Nadu might change based on the consultation paper released by TERCAverage tariff offered under various policies are not weighted averagesTariffs offered in Gujarat are levelized

• The lowest bid was reported in Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh for about INR 6.5

• Gujarat is still offering the highest levelized tariff in the country

• Average tariff for projects in the year 2013 has been INR 7.7

Key takeaway

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* Levelized tariff has been calculated considering 5% escalation for 10 years.


Average project sizes in India have been increasing over time

• The average project size has been increasing steadily

• More projects are being developed in the 20-25 MW range as well as some in the 50 MW range

• Some PV projects of 100 MW have also been announced recently

Key takeaway

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2.3GW solar installations are expected in the commercialparity space in the next 4 years

• The RPO driven market is expected to steadily increase

• The grid parity commercial market will also increase as parity is reached in more states

• The telecom market and the diesel parity market are both dependent on the price of diesel and the adoption of solar is expected to increase considerably in the coming years

Key takeaway

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Source: BRIDGE TO INDIA market model

© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2013

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BRIDGE TO INDIA: The India Solar Map

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