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Transcript of BRIDGE to INDIA_The India Solar Handbook
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011
The India Solar
Handbook The who’s who and
what’s what
A complete industry overview for solar energy in India
With support from:
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011Illustration by Dwarka Nath Sinha
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011
SupporTerSThe US$ 14.4 billion Mahindra Group aims to be at the forefront of the solar revolution in India through ‘Mahindra Solar’.
Powered by proven engineering expertise and leading technology partners, Mahindra Solar is committed to deliver reliable turnkey EPC (Engineering, Procurement and Construction) services and build over 75MW of large grid-connected solar power plants across India.
Backed with innovative and cost-effective solution for rooftops and captive power plants, we are
GIZ is a federal enterprise, which supports the German Government in achieving its objectives in the field of international cooperation for sustainable development.
GIZ operates in many fields: economic development and employment promotion; governance and democracy; security, reconstruction, peace building and civil conflict transformation; food security, health and basic education; and environmental protection, resource
Bosch Solar energy, the Solar Energy division of the Bosch Group, is a leading supplier of photovoltaic solutions. From small-scale systems for single family homes to large turnkey photovoltaic projects, Bosch Solar Energy is a global provider of high-quality solar cells and modules for turning sunlight into electricity. The company also takes on contracts to build entire solar parks which cover everything from the initial planning stages through to the actual construction and the final handover
empowering commercial organizations and telecom towers to reduce their cost through diesel savings. In 2011, we received the highest CRISIL-MNRE rating of SP1A for off-grid solar PV system integration.
Tel: +91 22 24 90 14 41, Extn.: 2259Fax: +91 22 24 96 65 73
[email protected] [email protected]
www.mahindraepc.com www.mahindra.com
conservation and climate change mitigation. We support our partners with management and logistical services, and act as an intermediary, balancing diverse interests in sensitive contexts.
Tel: +49 61 96 79-0Fax: +49 61 96 79-11 15
www.giz.de
of the completed turnkey system to the owner. Bosch Solar Energy is also part of Bosch Limited in India, India’s largest auto component manufacturer and also one of the largest Indo-German companies in India.
Tel: +91 80 22 99 23 66
www.boschindia.com
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011
The India Solar
Handbook The who’s who and
what’s what
A complete industry overview for solar energy in India
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011
BrIDGe To INDIA
THe INDIA SolAr HANDBookJanuary 2012 Edition
© 2011 BrIDGe To INDIA pvt. ltd.All rights reserved December 2011, New Delhi
No part of the India Solar Handbook may be used or reproduced in any manner or in any form or by any means without mentioning its original source.
BRIDGE TO INDIA is not herein engaged in rendering professional advice and services to you. BRIDGE TO INDIA makes no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the ownership, accuracy, or adequacy of the content of this product. BRIDGE TO INDIA shall not be liable for any indirect, incidental, consequential, or punitive damages or for lost revenues or profits, whether or not advised of the possibility of such damages or losses and regardless of the theory of liability.
For further enquiries, please contact:[email protected]
BRIDGE TO INDIA Pvt. Ltd.S-181, Panchsheel ParkNew Delhi 110017India
www.bridgetoindia.com
Read our blog for up-to-date market insights and opinionswww.bridgetoindia.com/blog
Follow us on Facebook www.facebook.com/bridgetoindia
DISclAIMer
AuthorsDr. Tobias Engelmeier
Mohit AnandShishir BasantShivansh Tyagi
Design & layoutDwarka Nath Sinha
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011
The PV market opportunity in India International policy comparisonSolar irradiation in India Indian solar policiesDemand and growth projectionsThe off-grid market opportunityrpos and rec mechanism
The PV manufacturing industry in India
StatusDomestic content requirementopportunities for foreign manufacturerspV manufacturing forecast
Expert InterviewsMr. Alan rosling, kiran energyMr. chandan Guha, Mahindra Solar oneMr. Schneidewind peter, Bosch Solar energyDr. Tobias engelmeier and Mr. oliver Herzog, Bridge to India
Annexure
coNTeNTS010305101114
16171719
20232527
29
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011
THe pV MArkeT opporTuNITy
IN INDIAINTerNATIoNAl polIcy coMpArISoNIn the initial, Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) driven phase of the global PV market, European countries, especially Germany, Spain and Italy, have taken the lead. The concept of compulsory consumption quotas of renewable energy (RPOs) has also first been introduced in Europe. Both market instruments have subsequently been replicated and further developed by other countries across the world.
As the solar PV industry enters into its second phase – of nearing commercial parity with other energy sources - new markets, with new policy support and high irradiation levels are increasingly coming into focus.
Mature Markets The PV market in these countries is based on two main drivers: their commitment to reduce their carbon footprint and their desire to reduce the dependency on imported fossil fuel. The average solar irradiation levels tend to be lower in these countries.
The introduction of highly attractive FiTs and the maturing of the industry have contributed to large-scale capacity additions in these markets.
The current economic slowdown in many European countries, especially Spain and Italy, has contributed to a significant reduction of FiTs, making these markets less attractive. Also, with large capacities of solar power already installed, the growth in these markets has been declining for the past few years. As a result, the PV industry is now engaging with new markets that offer opportunities for future growth and give them a more diversified portfolio of market risks.
New Markets Many new markets like India, Australia or South Africa have the advantage of
high solar irradiation. Their current installed capacities are still negligible as compared to the mature markets. Growth of solar power in these markets has been initiated by new government initiatives through FiTs and Renewable Purchase Obligations (RPOs).
Fundamental DriverIrradiation
(kWh/m2/
per day)
long Term
energy
Deficit
FiT (per kWh) rpo capital
Subsidy
Mature markets
Germany 2.7 No ~M12 ($0.30) No Yes
Italy 3.3 No ~M11 ($0.27) Yes Yes
Spain 3.7 No ~M11 ($0.27) Yes Yes
New Markets
India 5.5 Yes M12 ($0.30) Yes Yes
South Africa 5.2 Yes M22($0.55) Yes Yes
Australia 5.5 No Yes Yes
ontario (canada) 3.1 No M17($0.425)* No Yes
Sources: REN 21 Global Status Report, BRIDGE TO INDIA analysis*For projects less than 10MW
The current economic slowdown in many
European countries, especially Spain and
Italy, has contributed to a significant reduction
of FiTs, making these markets less
attractive.
01
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011 02
South Africa has high solar resources, which are yet to be harnessed and very high FiTs. Currently, PV applications in the country are limited to off-grid solutions. The government plans to add 300MW per year starting from year 2012. However, the country has only one state-run distribution utility that can purchase solar power under the FiT scheme.
Australia has some of the highest average solar irradiation levels in the world and has a competitive, open electricity market. The remote locations in Australia, which offer the best solar resource, however, often lack grid and road infrastructure. Also, Australia, like South Africa, has significant, domestic fossil fuel resources available.
ontario (Canada) is a fast emerging solar market with an expected installed solar PV capacity of 2,800MW by 2015. The capacity addition is mainly driven by the FiT policy. The FiT policy was introduced in 2009 but is only applicable for projects smaller than 10MW. The tariff offered for ground
mounted solar PV projects is around M24 ($0.42) per kWh, which is highest in the world. The market potential for large solar PV projects without the support of government is low. There are doubts about the long term strategy of the government.
India, with liberalized policies for the power sector, a high potential for solar power and a variety of central and state-level incentive systems, presents a particularly good opportunity for the solar industry. The market is supported by FiTs to provide an initial thrust. Further, by introducing the Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) mechanism and Renewable Purchase Obligations (RPOs), the government has tried to create an independent market for solar power in India. Reverse-bidding auctions in some programs have significantly reduced the FiTs, reducing the profitability of projects. In the long-term, however, solar power is considered to be a key strategic choice for this energy-strapped, large and high growth economy.
India, with liberalized policies for the power
sector, a high potential for solar power and a variety of central and state-level incentive
systems, presents a particularly good opportunity for the
solar industry.
Mature markets
New markets
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011
SolAr IrrADIATIoN IN INDIA
03
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011 04
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011
INDIAN SolAr polIcIeSNational Solar MissionSince its launch in 2009, the National Solar Mission (NSM) has been the key-driver of the growth of the Indian solar industry. It targets installations of 20 GW of grid-connected and 2GW of off-grid solar power by 2022 (both PV and CSP). In the first of its three phases, from 2010 to 2013, the government incentivizes the construction of 1,000MW of grid-connected power plants, encouraging the more developed PV technology as well as CSP equally with 500MW each1.
For the first batch of projects under the NSM offered in autumn 2010, as many as 333 project developers had put forward bids worth 1,815MW for 150MW of PV projects. Given this unexpected oversubscription, the government decided to award contracts based on a competitive reverse bidding process. Developers that offered the highest discount on the initial tariff of M17.91/kWh ($0.45 per kWh) were awarded the projects. As a result, tariffs fell by around 30% to an average of M12 per kWh ($0.32 per kWh).
The NSM has also introduced the concept of bundling, where the
* Approximate - actual tariff could vary from project to project
Each federal power generator such as NTPC has to sell 90% of power generated to state distribution companies (DISCOMS) as enforced by the government. The other 10% is termed as un-allocated and this power can be sold by NTPC through NVVN in the open market.
Currently NTPC has 4,000MW of unallocated power, which can be bundled with solar power from projects. However, NSM’s target of 4,000MW of solar power by 2017, will need 16,000MW of unallocated thermal power.
THe INDIA SolAr coMpASSBRIDGE TO INDIA’s expertise lies in combining keen market insight with in-depth and precise knowledge of the industry and policy framework in India. We publish this knowledge through our quarterly India Solar Compass. The India Solar Compass is an essential tool for all companies and investors engaging with the Indian solar market. Subscribers include some of the leading international solar companies, such as Bosch, IBC Solar, Gehrlicher Solar and Belectric.
In addition to the India Solar Compass, BRIDGE TO INDIA has authored or co-authored a number of reports on the Indian energy, renewable energy and solar markets, most recently the report: “India Solar Market: Strategy, Players and Opportunities” with GTM Research (November 2011).
contentI. India’s Solar Market• Overview and Latest Market
Developments• Status of the States• Focus on Resale of PPAs in Gujarat• Industry Developments• Challenges and OutlookII. Indepth expert InterviewIII. key Question AnsweredWhat is the captive commercial diesel off-set opportunity in India?
To purchase our reports or subscribe to the India Solar Compass, please visit the Reports section on www.bridgetoindia.com or send an email to [email protected]
---------------------1 - MNRE National Solar Mission, Guidelines for New Grid Connected Solar Power Projects, July 2010
Bundling of solar power
05
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011 06
government (through the state-owned power trading company NVVN) is to buy the expensive solar power from developers and then bundle it with un-allocated cheap thermal power from the federally-owned power generator NTPC before selling it off at an average cost of around M4 per kWh ($0.10 per kWh) to the state utilities.
In order to reduce the payment default risks inherent in the power purchase agreements (PPAs) with the financially weak State Electricity Boards (SEBs), the federal government later approved a Payment Security Scheme worth M4.86 billion ($122m) for projects under Phase 1 of the NSM. The scheme is implemented by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), which will allocate the funds to the NVVN through a Solar Payment Security Account (SPSA).
Gujarat Solar policyThe state of Gujarat was the first Indian state to launch its own solar policy in 2009. The current policy is operative until 2014. The initial target was to achieve an installed capacity of 500MW. Given the interest from a large number of developers and a likelihood that a significant number of the initial projects will not materialize, the government allocated projects worth 935MW.
The Gujarat Solar Policy is the only policy, which has awarded projects with a fixed FiT, on a first-come-first-serve basis. This has resulted in the allocation of a number of projects to in-experienced or unknown developers.
Land acquisition has proved to be a challenge for projects in Gujarat. There are a limited number of land-
levelized tariff For first 12 years For next 13 years
For projects com-missioned before 28th January 2011
M13.30 per kWh M15 per kWh M5 per kWh
For projects com-missioned post 28th January 2011
M10.81 per kWh M12.04 per kWh M6.84 per kWh
banks (large areas of land acquired and consolidated by the government for the use of developers), thereby pushing developers to purchase private land, which is usually a tedious process taking anything between eight to twelve months. A new solar park at Charanka is meant to solve many infrastructure-related problems. So far, however, there have been some issues with land allocation and the provision of evacuation infrastructure by the Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation Limited (GETCO).
While such issues will not necessarily derail the solar park, they will create further delays for developers who are already facing challenges in meeting their deadlines. The state is also planning to allocate another 1,000MW worth of projects in the beginning of 2012 with the new tariff control period.
rajasthan Solar policyThe Rajasthan Solar Policy, launched in July 2011, has a long-term target of 12GW of installed solar power in the state by 2022. In the first phase, PV projects worth 300MW will be awarded through a competitive bidding process. The bidding is expected to take place by end 2011. Projects are then to be installed by 2013.
The Rajasthan Solar Policy has incorporated some lessons from forerunners like the NSM and the Gujarat Solar Policy. It does not have the 5MW limit on individual projects which made the NSM less attractive to large players but, unlike the Gujarat policy, it has placed fixed limits of 61MW (accumulated capacity under different scheme of projects) on overall capacity allocation to encourage the development of a competitive developer landscape. The policy also
Gujarat Tariffs
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011
addresses the concerns of developers with regard to the allocation of land and water, availability of a transmission network and the localized supply chain.
The policy promotes domestic manufacturing by providing incentives for developers with manufacturing facilities in Rajasthan. Of the 300MW of PV projects available under its policy, 200MW are reserved for allotment to developers planning to build manufacturing facilities in Rajasthan. These projects are required to use the modules manufactured in-house.
Due to its high irradiation levels and availability of space, Rajasthan will likely become the hub of solar power generation in India. Under Batch I of Phase I of the NSM, out of 145MW of solar PV projects selected, 70% are in Rajasthan. Under Batch 2 of Phase
In October 2011, the state government announced a tax exemption of 4% on entry of 43 capital goods like solar PV modules, batteries, inverters and other goods used in solar power plants.
In October 2011, MNRE refused to give subsidies to 129MW of projects allotted by the Karnataka government, which led to the cancellation of these projects.
1 of the NSM the state has already attracted around 60% of the bids for projects and is likely to attract more developers under its state policy.
karnataka Solar policyKarnataka announced its solar policy in July 2011 and targets 350MW of projects by 2016. The state has already called for bids for 80MW worth of projects. The last date to submit the bid was November 24th, 2011. The selected projects will be announced by the end of 2011. The size of individual projects is limited to 3MW to 10MW. It allows plants to feed power into the low voltage, 11KV distribution grid. With these measures, Karnataka is looking to attract investors that are interested in developing smaller plants for a more decentralized energy supply. The policy has no domestic content requirement.
policy Target project allotment method
FiT project Sizes
Domestic content guideline
expected installed capacity by 2013**
NSM 500MW by 2013
Reverse competitive bidding
Average FiT for first batch:M12 ($0.3) per kWh
Batch 1: 5MWBatch 2: 20MW
Yes.Exception: Thin film modules
480MW
Gujarat 500MW by 2014
Fixed FiT on first come basis
M15 ($0.375) per kWh for first 12 year and M5 ($0.125) per kWh for the next 13 years
Min 5MW; Max no cap
No 700MW*
rajasthan 300MW by 2013
Reverse competitive bidding
Biddings yet to take place
Min: 1MWMax: 50MW
No.Exception: 200MW projects for module manufac-turers
250MW
karnataka 126MW by 2013
Reverse competitive bidding
Biddings yet to be take place
Min: 3MW Max: 10MW
No 100MW
*Projects awarded are more than the targets of policy**BRIDGE TO INDIA market projectionsFor procedures and timelines of project allotment, criteria and development, refer to AnnexureI
07
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011 08
STATe SolAr polIcy STATuSppAs
SIGNeD
FINANcIAl cloSure/
coNSTrucTIoNcoMMIS-SIoNeD
pV proJecTS
GuJArAT
rAJASTHAN
kArNATAkA
MAHArASHTrA
TAMIl NADu
ANDHrA prADeSH
orISSA
HAryANA
uTTAr prADeSH
puNJAB
uTTArAkHAND
WeST BeNGAl
cHHATTISGArH
JHArkHAND
puDucHerry
MANIpur
State Solar Policy under executionPhase 1: Deadline Dec. 2010Phase 2: Deadline Dec. 2011Phase 3: To be announced by end of 2011
State Solar Policy announced in April 2011Base FiTs announced. Bidding expected by end of 2011 (250MW to be allotted)
State Solar Policy announced in July 2011Bids totake place by end of 2011 (80MW to be allotted)Deadline for RfS: October 2011
Broad Renewable Energy Policy, No policy specific to solar energy
State solar policy likely to be released soon
Draft solar policy expected by end of 2011
Draft solar policy expected by end of 2011
Broad renewable energy policy, No policy specific to solar energy
No state solar policy
No state solar policy
Existing broad renewable energy policy
No state solar policy
No state solar policy
No state solar policy
Only central policy
No state solar policy (Rooftop projects initiated by MANIREDA)
0MW 933.5MW
171MW12MW
5MW100MW
5MW6MW
16MW1MW
153MW
5MW7MW5MW
65MW10.5MW
2MW
5MW8MW
7.8MW5MW
5MW4MW5MW
7MW8.5MW
6MW
5MW
7MW
4MW
14MW
1MW
1.5MW
0MW 400MW
170MW12MW
40MW
5MW
12MW
150MW
5MW5MW
65MW8.5MW
5MW5MW
5.8MW5MW
5MW4MW5MW
5MW8.5MW
6MW
5MW
5MW
4MW
14MW
1MW
1.5MW
40MW
1MW
5MW
6MW
4MW1MW3MW
2MW5MW
2MW2MW
3MW
2MW0MW
2MW
2MW
NSMState Policy
NSMRPSSGPGBIDirect RPO
NSMGBI
NSMRPSSGPDirect RPO
NSMRPSSGPGBI
NSMRPSSGPGBI
NSMRPSSGP
RPSSGPDirect RPO
NSMRPSSGPDirect RPO
NSMRPSSGPDirect RPO
RPSSGP
GBI
RPSSGP
RPSSGP
RPSSGP
Direct RPO
Top
per
For
Mer
STATuS oF THe STATeS
poTe
NTI
Al
rIS
erS
Slo
W M
oVe
rS
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011
DelHI
JAMMu AND kASHMIr
kerAlA
TrIpurA
MIZorAM
ASSAM
HIMAcHAl prADeSH
AruNAcHAl prADeSH
NAGAlAND
MeGHAlAyA
SIkkIM
GoA
uNIoN TerrITorIeS
No solar policy yet, notified their RPO requirments. Solar rooftop policy expected.
Draft solar policy (Not formalized)Projects to be developed under NSM off-grid and RPSSGP
Existing broad renewable energy policy
Draft solar policy (Not formalized)
Draft solar policy (Not formalized)
No state solar policy
No state solar policy
No state solar policy
No state solar policy
No state solar policy
No state solar policy
No state solar policy
Only central renewable energy policy
Direct RPO
Total
2MW
1,575.3MW 957.3MW*
2MW
82MW
No development so far
No development so far
No development so far
No development so far
No development so far
No development so far
No development so far
No development so far
No development so far
No development so far
No development so far
No development so far
STATe SolAr polIcy STATuSppAs
SIGNeD
FINANcIAl cloSure/
coNSTrucTIoNcoMMIS-SIoNeD
pV proJecTS
Direct rpo: Projects initiated to fulfill RPO obligations (project specific FiTs negotiated between utility & developers)NSM: First batch of projects allotted under phase-1 of the NSM (includes migration projects) rpSSGp: Rooftop & Small Solar Power Generation Program under NSMGBI: Projects under MNRE GBI scheme
* We do not expect that all projects that have attained financial closure will be constructed and commissioned.
No
N M
oVe
rS
09
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011 10
DeMAND GroWTH AND proJecTIoNS
capacity addition is currently driven almost exclusively by government subsidiesThe installed capacity for grid-connected solar power under the various policies by the end of 2011 will be close to 250MW up from a mere 22MW at the beginning of the year (all PV). The growth has been driven by the launch of the NSM and Gujarat Solar Policy and the preferential FiTs they offer. Currently, growth is centering on grid-connected plants. This trend is expected to continue over the next three years because of a lack of incentives outside the policies and because solar power is not yet commercially viable on a large scale. Growth of captive solar power
installations will be dependent on the solar REC market in the short term.
Grid parity is expected by 2018The capital cost for solar power has come down by about 16% to 20% in the last two years. It is expected to continue the downward trend for the next three years as the manufacturing scale increases and the technology matures. At the same time, the cost for fossil fuels such as coal is expected to increase and subsidies in the power sector in India are expected to fall, thus driving up grid power prices. Given India’s high irradiation levels, solar power will soon become a feasible choice for captive generation in the future.
projected Market Growth of Solar pV in India
Given India’s high irradiation levels,
solar power will soon become a feasible choice for captive
generation in the future.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011
Grid parity in India
THe oFF-GrID MArkeT opporTuNITyThe major market segments in the Indian solar off-grid market are captive power plants for commercial and
industrial users, powering telecom towers and rural electrification through small solar applications; solar home systems or mini-grids. The realizable market potential and the technical and financial entry barriers indicate their level of attractiveness and business opportunities.
STrATeGIc coNSulTINGBRIDGE TO INDIA provides strategic consulting services to Indian and international companies and investors interested in the Indian solar market. With its extensive industry network, market insights and project knowledge on demand growth and projections, BRIDGE TO INDIA is able to provide customized solutionsto generate tangible success for its clients. Our work encompasses the following areas:• Market entry advisory• Competitive analysis• Business model development• Partnerships• M&A advisory
For more information, visit the Strategic Consulting section on www.bridgetoindia.com or contact tobias.engelmeier@ bridgetoindia.com
off-Grid pV-Market: potential and Market entry Barriers
11
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011 12
comparison of cost per power unit [INr/kWh]**
electricity costDepending on the design of the PV system, a unit of power from an off-grid solar system currently costs about M11-12 ($0.28-0.30) per kWh (without storage). This is higher than the cost of grid electricity (M4-5 or $0.10-$0.13 per kWh) but competitive to electricity from diesel gen-sets (M10-15 or $0.25-$0.38 per kWh). Currently diesel costs around M45 ($1) per liter. Therefore, in areas where grid power is erratic and diesel power is used extensively, solar power already has a strong business case.
captive power plantsSolar captive power plants are already a viable option for many locations to complement diesel or grid power. Amongst the advantages for off-grid solar systems vis-à-vis grid connected plants is the fact that it is mostly a business-to-business transaction, leaving aside governmental processes. On the other side, there is a risk that PPAs with private customers are less bankable. According to the “Electricity Rules, 2005”, at least 26% of the plant has to be owned by its user and at least 51% of the annually
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011
produced electricity must be captive consumption.
Market participants estimate the payback period of solar captive power plants to be two to seven years, depending on diesel prices, location and system design. The main challenge is to find a financially viable business model with a long-term strategy for scalability. There are two main approaches to this: an EPC or an ESCO model.
The payback period for PV systems as power supply for telecom towers is currently two to four years and it is expected to reach one year by 2014 (see Figure 3)2. The lesser the availability of grid-power and the more remote the location, the better is the case for autonomous PV systems. Further, increasing diesel prices and decreasing diesel subsidies will support this trend.
epc Model eSco ModelPower plant is owned by the customer Power plant is owned by the customer
after the contract expires at no extra cost apart from maintenance
Most plants are sold through this model
‘Solar as a service’ - more suitable for achieving economies of scale
EPC company finds funding through equity with banks who can provide high upfront costs
Design, construction, financing, op-eration and maintenance is done by the Energy Service Company (ESCO)
Customer operates the power plant after commissioning
Customer only pays for the energy consumed by signing a contract with the ESCO for 7-14 years
Customer takes on the responsibility of maintaining the power plant
ESCO takes the risk of running the power plant for the customer for the contract period
---------------------2 - BRIDGE TO INDIA expert interviews and analysis
payback of solar power systemsfor telecom towers
BrIDGe To INDIA project DevelopmentBRIDGE TO INDIA supports international investors and Indian companies in their project development process. This includes project scouting, technical and commercial due diligence, energy concepts for captive projects, and site development including permits. BRIDGE TO INDIA is also developing commercially attractive captive PV projects.
For more information, visit the Project Development section on www.bridgetoindia.comor contact [email protected]
13
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011 14
reNeWABle purcHASe oBlIGATIoNS (rpos) AND THe rec MecHANISMIn order to further encourage power generation from renewable sources, the federal government, through the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC), has introduced RPOs for both renewable power in general and solar power in particular.
Solar RPOs are the minimum amount of solar energy that obligated entities -
distribution licensees, open access and captive consumers (1MW and above) - have to have as a percentage of their total available electricity. Currently, these are set at around 0.25% of the total consumption of state utilities and vary across states. A distribution utility, which distributes one million kWh of electricity in a year, is obligated to obtain 2,500kWh of these from solar energy. It can meet this obligation by purchasing the required quantity of solar power directly from producers. Alternatively, it can buy solar RECs to fulfill its RPOs.
rec Framework: eligibility
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011
rec Mechanism RECs can be generated by any developer who sells solar power to the public grid at the Average Pooled Purchase Cost (APPC) of the relevant distribution utility or sells solar power to third-party consumers at a mutually decided price. RECs are not applicable for projects in which power is sold to the grid at a preferential tariff. Further, power producers that have begun to sell power at a preferential FiT are not allowed to later switch to the REC mechanism.
The REC market is yet to pick up in India. The main challenge it faces, is the lack of a long-term predictability of REC pricing. The current REC floor and forbearance prices are only applicable through 2012, and CERC issued an order to lower the REC price after
2012. As a result, developers who build their case on RECs face problems in raising debt because they are unable to project their returns accurately for the loan repayment period. Also, there are still too few solar projects in India to generate enough volume for a well functioning market.
The REC market will grow once the solar market strengthens in India and when longer-term price signals are available. The market is also looking to the government for making changes in the REC policy. Currently the RPOs which create the primary market for the RECs have to be fulfilled on a yearly basis. As a result, obligated entities go to the market to purchase RECs only at the end of a financial year. This creates a spike in the cash flows of projects rather than continuous cash flows throughout the year.
recs can boost returns significantly
15
The REC market will grow once
the solar market strengthens in India
and when longer- term price signals
are available.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011 16
THe pV MANuFAcTur-ING INDuSTry
IN INDIASTATuSThe Indian manufacturing industry currently has an overall production capacity of about 1,300MW for modules and 700MW for cells. These capacities far exceed PV installations in India and will do so for some years, even considering the annual growth rates. The Indian PV industry has grown based on exports to international solar markets and continues to depend on the European countries for more than 80% of its revenues. More than 70% of cells and 80% of modules3 manufactured in India are still exported.
In order to remain globally competitive in an increasingly tough market, Indian manufacturers will need to improve their offering by reducing their cost positions (through increasing scale and integrating along the value chain) and generating innovation. Currently, most module manufacturers in India are still dependent on foreign suppliers for ingots, wafers and cells. Maharishi Solar is currently the only Indian company with manufacturing facilities for ingots and wafers; it has a total capacity of 15MW.
---------------------3 - Based on industry interviews and company reports
The Indian manufacturing industry
currently has module production capacities
of about 1,300MW, more than 90% of
which is for crystalline silicon modules.
cell manufacturers in India(MW)
Module manufacturers in India(MW)
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011
Modules installed in India: crystalline Vs
Thin Film
DoMeSTIc coNTeNT GuIDelINeSFor the first batch of projects in the NSM, crystalline modules being used must be manufactured in India. The second batch of projects under the NSM due to be allotted by the end of 2011 are not allowed to install modules with imported cells. Use of thin film technology is still exempted from domestic content guidelines.
The state policies of Gujarat, Rajasthan and Karnataka do not have a domestic content requirement. Other states such as Tamil Nadu, Orissa and Andhra Pradesh are also expected to not mandate domestic content in projects.
opporTuNITIeS For ForeIGN MoDule SupplIerSGoing by the current supply contracts, India will import more than 1GW of modules until the end of 2012. More than 60% of these will be for thin film modules, all from foreign manufacturers.
The installed capacity in India stands at 90MW4.New projects worth more than 200MW are expected to be commissioned by the end of 2011. Most of these are expected to be thin film installations. Of the currently installed capacity of 90MW, 77MW use thin film modules. Of the 71MW PV capacity installed in the last one year, 61MW have been thin film installations.
About 80% of currently installed capacity use
thin-film modules.
Indian Solar pV Supply chain
17
---------------------4 - as on November 22nd, 2011
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011
crystalline silicon module suppliers to India (MW)
Thin-film module suppliers to India (MW)
18
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011
pV MANuFAcTurING ForecASTThe PV manufacturing industry in India has grown six-fold from under 200MW in 2007 to a 1,300MW in 2011. In the next few years, the growth in module production will be replicated upstream as well. For the first time, Indian manufacturing industry could be seeing significant production capacities for wafers and ingots as well.
Complete integrated module manufacturing facilities of capacities as large as 600MW are currently being built by large Indian business conglomerates such as Lanco Solar and Birla Surya. Various smaller and new business entities such as Alfa Solar, JBM Group, Chemtrols Solar, Vorks Energy and Sonali Energies as new entrants in the PV industry are also planning to build new facilities for production of modules. Besides, existing manufacturers like Tata BP, EMMVEE, Moser Baer and XL Energy
are investing to expand their existing production capacities. These plans will add to the module and cell production capacities in India by more than 1GW in the next five years.
Over the next five years, production capacities for ingots and wafers are expected to increase from a mere 28TPA5 to more than 1,000TPA. A healthy domestic supply chain will bring down the cost of raw material for module production in India. As a result, the domestic ingot and wafer productions will be directly reciprocated into new domestic module manufacturing capacities. New module production capacities worth 2GW or more could be realized from 2015 to 2020.
There is no domestic industry for manufacturing equipments in India. It is imperative, therefore, that the Indian PV manufacturing industry will be a significant market opportunity in the world for the suppliers of PV manufacturing equipments and the turnkey solution providers for them.
pV Manufacturing Forecast -India
---------------------5 - TPA: Tonnes per annum
cuSToMIZeD reporTSBRIDGE TO INDIA provides in depth market knowledge to clients through customized reports to cover the Indian energy markets. Past, publicly available reports include, among others, an analysis of the Indian energy market for the German Environment Ministry, support for REN21’s Global Renewables Status Report, an analysis of the Indian Renewable Energy Market with NREL, GIZ and IRADe, a report on the Indian project development processes for DENA and a report on the Indian solar market with Greentech Media.
In the next three years, India’s PV
manufacturing industry for the first time
will see a significant production capacity for
ingots and wafers.
19
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011 20
experT INTerVIeWS
Mr. Alan rosling is Chairman of Kiran Energy Solar Power Pvt Ltd, a company he co-founded in Bombay in 2010 together with Ardeshir Contractor. Kiran Energy closed its Series A funding round with a consortium of three private equity investors and is now developing solar power projects in India, typically in joint venture with leading corporates. Kiran signed its first joint venture with Mahindra & Mahindra in September 2010 and has signed two Power Purchase Agreements to date, a 20MW project in Gujarat and a 5MW National Solar Mission project.
Alan created his own advisory business, Griffin Growth Partners Ltd, in 2009 to assist clients develop and implement successful strategies in India, and to work with Asian multinationals as they globalise. Prior to this, he served as an Executive Director of Tata Sons Limited responsible for Tata Group’s drive to internationalise. Alan has also served as a special advisor to the British Prime Minister, Rt. Hon. John Major MP, and a member of the Policy Unit at No. 10 Downing Street.
Many projects under the NSM are yet to begin construction and many PPAs under the Gujarat Solar Policy have been cancelled? How do you rate the success of both solar policies?
We see the development of solar policy in India as a great illustration of how Government can and should work with the market to shape a strategic objective of national importance. The country needs power for development, but increasingly concerns over energy security, balance of payments, climate impacts and affordability will drive India towards an increasing share of renewable in the power mix. Solar has huge potential in India given our insolation and land availability. However for the next few years solar will remain a more expensive source of power until innovation and scale drive costs downwards to parity with conventional sources. So policy
Mr. Alan roslingFounder, Kiran Energy
support is required to encourage the market to invest, innovate and scale up. The National Solar Mission was a fine policy process and produced a clear roadmap towards an ambitious goal, 20GW of solar in a decade. Its policy prescriptions were well conceived and innovative (reverse bidding, bundling). The first round of bidding was carefully implemented and managed. The second round has shown the government willing to listen and evolve policy.
It has also been very welcome that there has been an alternative policy process taking a different approach in Gujarat. The level of immediate ambition has indeed been higher in Gujarat with 960MW of PPAs signed in the first year. The Government has been very supportive over the practical issues of project development, with the Gujarat Solar Park a particularly important initiative.
Perhaps most importantly, the regulators have developed an umbrella mechanism around RPOs that in the long run is likely to drive the shape of the solar market.
So overall we see 2011, the first year of solar in India on any serious scale, as a great success which much that entirely outweighs the difficulties or non-implementation of any individual projects.
India offers lots of different subsidy schemes for PV such as the NSM, state policies and RPO. How do you assess the attractiveness of those schemes from a project development and investment perspective?
You should view the various policy initiatives at state and centre as complementary aspects of an over-arching ambition to see solar develop into a major industry in India. The Government has set a target of 20GW in a decade. The regulators have evolved RPOs as the critical market driver. The NSM and Gujarat and other state policies are mechanisms within the RPO framework.
Perhaps most importantly, the regulators have
developed an umbrella mechanism around
RPOs that in the long run is likely to drive
the shape of the solar market.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011
Does the NSM offer optimum support to project developers? In what other forms do you think the developers could be supported?
No developer will ever be entirely satisfied with any policy structure as there will be trade-offs and rub points. Overall, the NSM has been very well conceived and implemented. Our criticisms of the first round was over the restriction to one 5MW project and the local content requirement for crystalline. MNRE has listened to our feedback and in the second round has adjusted size restrictions upwards, which is very welcome. Our key ask of the Government is to have a clear roadmap to scaling the industry with regular opportunities to bid for and win world scale plants. Only in this way will the industry develop and costs come down.
Project development is the business with most risk exposure. What were your reasons/ inspiration behind founding Kiran Energy as a project developer?
Ardeshir and I founded Kiran because we believe that solar will have an important future in India as the technology develops and costs come down.
Kiran Energy has raised PE from three PE investors who jointly hold a major stake in the company. The other 5MW plant is being developed in a joint venture with Mahindra. What is Kiran Energy’s long term strategy as a project developer?
We aim to be a leading pure play solar developer focused on India. We believe in partnering to achieve this ambition and our JV with Mahindra is a critical illustration of our approach, and together we will grow Mahindra Solar One. We also believe in partnering with technology providers and EPC providers (we have a strong relationship with L&T).
Bankability has been a challenge for solar projects in India. How do you see
this improving and how can the industry address this challenge?
This year the banking community was getting comfortable with the solar industry and its risks, including questions around technology and the PPAs. Well conceived projects with strong EPC arrangements have secured financial closure. I would expect the banking process to get easier over time, though we need to continue to innovate project financing to bring cost of capital, which is too high in India, down towards world levels.
There have been discussions on making renewable energy a priority sector for lending as a solution to bankability as a challenge. What is your opinion on this?
We see solar as a strategic industry for India where the country should have a comparative advantage. As such priority sector status can only assist, especially regarding cost of funds.
How do you assess the influence of increasing domestic content requirements on the engagement of foreign manufacturing companies in the Indian solar market? Will other states follow the NSM in this regard?
This is one facet of the NSM policy where we have a continued reservation. Of course we all wish to see the development of local manufacturing including Indian module and cell companies with their own IP and world scale quality manufacturing. India has proved to be a great place for engineering intensive manufacturing, given our skills and cost base. And the local market for solar will be among the largest in the world. However, we see the policy objective of cost reduction and convergence with grid parity as the overarching goal of the Government. To an important degree multiple objectives in a policy will confuse and hold back the delivery of the policy. Cost reduction will come from innovation (largely in Silicon Valley for now) and scale (China for
To an important degree multiple objectives in a policy will confuse and hold back the delivery
of the policy.
We also believe in partnering with
technology providers and EPC providers (we have a strong
relationship with L&T).
21
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011 22
the conceivable future) so cutting the Indian market off from these developments appears counter-productive. As implemented, this protectionism has so far merely distorted the market in favor of Thin Film. What can foreign investors and EPC companies contribute to solar energy development in India?
An enormous amount. India should welcome all industry players.
According to our assessment, project IRRs are not offering high profit margins at present. Why do an
increasing number of foreign investors look into such investments despite this fact and how successful have foreign investors been in India so far? What kind of returns are they looking for?
Electricity supply will remain a regulated industry with utility returns. Foreign players are looking to India for growth within sound regulation.
How do you assess the role of PV in India’s future energy strategy?
Increasingly important.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011
We expect RPOs to be enforced by the
end of this financial year,between January
and mid-2012. Accordingly, the REC
market should pick up by 2012-13.
Mr. chandan GuhaCEO, Mahindra Solar One
Mr. chandan Guha is the Chief Executive Officer of Mahindra Solar One Private Limited and leads the SPV Operations.
An electrical engineer by profession, he has spent more than 20 years in the Power Sector , mainly on the Thermal and Automation sides, before moving over to renewable. He was the Director Sales, with GE Energy T&D in his last job. Prior to GE, Chandan had worked with Reliance Energy, Honeywell Automation etc and is a key speaker in most forums of Indian Power Sector.
Chandan has vast experience in thermal power plant EPC projects and power plant operations. He worked as vertical market head of a 300 crore company & headed distribution automation in one of India’s largest Utility Distribution Company.
What is Mahindra Solar one’s strategy with regards to solar energy in India?
First, Mahindra Cleantech was formed to encourage and implement renewable energy projects and clean technology solutions. As a strategy, we have been carefully watching this space. Solar has been our first step as it can offer energy security not just through utility-scale plants but also through off-grid solutions. Mahindra Solar One is currently developing projects under the JNNSM and the Gujarat Solar Policy. In the long term, our strategy is to offer de-central power solutions because I think this is where the real growth opportunity is in the long-term.
Is Mahindra Solar One looking to invest in the PV manufacturing sector in India?
We are a solar power developer and are technology agnostic. We are not into manufacturing. Currently the manufacturing sector has several large gigawatt-scale manufacturers which is good for the industry. India would need similar setup to create a sustainable large manufacturing base.
With regards to the domestic content requirement, is there not a conflict between the government’s objective of supporting generation as well as increasing domestic manufacturing?
A dichotomy need not necessarily be a conflict. In my opinion, the domestic content requirement is a very good initiative by the JNNSM to support the growth of local manufacturing. We need an entire ecosystem of manufacturing and projects in order to meet the solar targets of the country. However, Indian manufacturers at the moment operate on a small scale as compared to larger companies abroad. They continue to look at exports to Europe to sustain their businesses.
On the other hand, there is a great opportunity for large international module manufacturers to set up manufacturing in India. If the government offers the right incentives, international manufacturers can take advantage of cheap land and low labor costs in India. In turn, the Indian industry can benefit from some of the best global technology at the lowest costs. Large scale domestic manufacturing capacities will reduce cost throughout the value chain.
Is the solar-REC market viable? Will Mahindra Solar One be looking to develop projects based on the REC mechanism?
We believe the REC market can be a key driver of the solar industry in India. The solar-REC market is struggling only because the states have not been able to enforce penalties on utilities for not meeting their RPOs. Although the RPOs have been notified by individual state electricity regulatory committees, the market will not pick up unless the penalties are enforced. We expect RPOs to be enforced by the end of this financial year,between January and mid-2012. Accordingly, the REC market should pick up by 2012-13.
Mahindra Solar One has excellent relations with some banks and our
Our strategy is to offer de-central
power solutions because I think this is
where the real growth opportunity is in the
long-term.
23
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011
perception is that they would finance REC based projects as well. They trust this mechanism and the market to pick up in the future. So, yes, we will be looking to develop such projects once the REC market is active.
How important are off-grid solutions for India? When do you think will be the tipping point for this market?
Currently, we have three business models in PV technology viz. large MW scale solar power plants, smaller off-grid PV plants and building rooftops.
The large MW scale power plants will definitely be the first to take-off as already seen this year. We expect a 1GW installed capacity by mid-2012 and about 2.5GW by mid-2013. We have seen the political will to encourage the growth of solar power. And the market is moving fast: the government’s grid parity target of 2020 might actually be achieved by 2016. The inflexion point for the growth of solar power in India will be when the cost of solar falls to M8 per kWh. I believe this will create room for the growth of solar power outside the government policies and subsidy schemes.
24
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011
Mr. Schneidewind peter
CSO, Bosch Solar Energy
Mr. Schneidewind peter is a member of the divisional board with responsibility for all sales, marketing and product management at Bosch Solar Energy.
How do you rate the Indian solar market in the international context? The photovoltaic market is becoming ever more dynamic around the world. In 2010 alone, solar power plants with a total output of 18GW were installed. That equates to the electricity requirements of 24 million Europeans – or the whole of Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and Norway put together. In 2007, the total output of photovoltaic facilities installed that year was only 2.3GW. Market development will continue to speed up in the years to come. The forecast is for a total capacity of 32GW to be installed in 2015 alone. This would meet the electricity requirements of almost 44 million Europeans. The forecast is similar for the Asia-Pacific region: From 2GW in 2010, the capacity of newly-installed solar capacity across the region should rise to almost 13GW by 2015. All around the world, the area that is being focused on is the land that lies between the 35th parallel either side of the equator. This region, which is known as the “sunbelt” thanks to its high level of incident sunlight, and which also includes the largest part of India is the ideal location for solar installations – and has the highest opportunities for growth. According to a study by the European Photovoltaic Industry Association, EPIA, photovoltaic will become this region’s most important source of energy between 2020 and 2030. This region, which is home to 75% of the world’s population, is currently beset by high electricity prices and also by poor energy supply. Its countries together make up just 40% of worldwide energy demand. But
according to the EPIA, their share will double to 80% over the next 20 years. It is also to be noted that so far only nine percent of global photovoltaic capacity has been installed in this sunny area. Especially, in light of the recent developments in the Indian photovoltaic market, there is a good chance that India will be one of the prominent movers in this direction in the Asia-Pacific region. Will the future of the solar market in India be in the on-grid or off-grid space? We expect that within the next few years the dominant market will remain the on-grid market at multi-MW and utility scale. Due to the fact that photovoltaic is on the verge of being competitive with diesel-generated electricity there is a good chance that a very interesting and large volume market may arise within the next years due to reducing diesel consumption through photovoltaic power. In addition, rural electrification by means of photovoltaic and other renewable energy sources may cause the share of off-grid applications to rise in the Indian photovoltaic market. How quick both of these developments will be will strongly depend on several factors such as the willingness and trust of investors to finance long-term photovoltaic assets, the reliability of photovoltaic systems used for off-grid solutions, the development of diesel prices, a sufficient push from governments to help the market grow in the initial phases, and others. New developments and innovations in energy storage technologies will also help augment the adoption of off-grid systems, if the resultant solutions are more economical. Do you see thin film or mono crystalline modules being best suited to India? There cannot be “One Size Fits All”. The choice of technology will be application specific. For the time being, we see good perspectives for both
25
This region, which is home to
75% of the world’s population, is
currently beset by high electricity prices and
also by poor energy supply. Its countries
together make up just 40% of worldwide
energy demand.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011
technologies in the Indian photovoltaic market. Given its strong engineering competency in different sectors, how is Bosch placed to tackle the challenges in the Indian solar sector? We are optimistic to contribute to the challenges of the Indian photovoltaic market by optimizing our products in light of the Indian requirements within the next years. India is a price-sensitive market but given our long standing existence in India for 60 years and our engineering competence, we are very well placed to compete in the Indian solar industry. We have experience of installing over 50MW of projects in Europe and have a strong network of wholesalers - installers there. Bosch’s largest engineering centre outside of Germany is located
in India with 10,000 engineers (mainly electrical, electronic and mechanical specialists) supporting all Bosch verticals. Bosch Rexroth designs and manufactures mounting structures suitable for our modules and projects. For our solar projects, both on-grid and off-grid, we bring together the experience from Europe and leverage local talent. We believe the integrated approach from manufacturing to system engineering and installation will ensure quality and reliability. Our emphasis on quality, throughout our organization, ensures that all components are mutually compatible and designed into a professionally engineered and integrated power system, thus enhancing system reliability, performance and longevity which gives the investor safe and reliable returns.
26
India is a price-sensitive market
but given our long standing existence
in India for 60 years and our engineering competence, we are
very well placed to compete in the Indian
solar industry.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011
Dr. Tobias engelmeier Founder, Managing
Director, Bridge To India
Mr. oliver HerzogDirector, Bridge To India
Dr. Tobias engelmeier was awarded a doctorate in political science from the South Asia Institute of the University of Heidelberg for his thesis on the relationship between identity and strategy in Indian politics. Prior to his doctorate, he worked for a leading strategy management consultancy. During that time, he advised large European utilities on how to engage with the fast-rising market for renewable energies.
In 2008, he founded BRIDGE TO INDIA as a strategic environmental consulting company, based in New Delhi. Since then, he has provided consultancy services to multinationals as well as SMEs, to institutions, governments and to investors. He has published a number of reports, articles as well as two books on the topics of India and energy.
Mr. oliver Herzog studied Business Administration with a focus on accounting/controlling and general management at the University of Applied Science in Cologne. During his studies he worked for an international consultancy company with a focus on strategic management and restructuring.
After his studies, in January 2004, he joined a leading global renewable energy company, where he worked for 7.5 years in different positions. During the last two years he headed the operations of the project development and financing arm in Singapore and India. In Singapore he successfully set up a trust worth €200m with GE Financial, which invests into renewable energy projects across Asia. In India, he successfully set up a project pipeline of more than 400MW of PV, wind, small hydro and biogas projects. Oliver joined BRIDGE TO INDIA in July 2011 as Director. He is based in Hamburg, Germany. Oliver focuses on renewable energy and advises companies on entering the Indian market and on identifying, screening and developing projects.
What is the significance of solar as a resource for India?
Dr. engelmeierSolar in India is crucial. It is the only credible long-term power supply strategy that this country can have. Fossil fuels are limited and India has its issues with nuclear energy. So, in order to meet India’s enormous energy demands, India needs solar power.Secondly, solar power can provide India with energy security. India’s solar irradiation levels are high. So, you already have the fundamental necessity to develop solar power and hence, the key driver for the industry. Given the infrastructure setup and cost of power generation in India, combined with the irradiation opportunity, commercial viability can be achieved very soon.
Mr. HerzogIt is important to note that solar power in India will reach grid parity much before the grid is enlarged into rural areas. Therefore, solar will be in a stage to deliver power at a reasonable price as an alternative to having a complete functioning grid in India. I believe, in the current energy structure and scenario in India, a strategy for solar power is completely lacking. However, as Tobias just mentioned, with the conditions available the process to make solar commercially viable has begun and it will spread to the larger parts of the market from here.
What makes the Indian solar market different from the other new as well as existing global markets?
Mr. HerzogIndia, at the moment, is not fulfilling its own energy requirements. Hence there is a crucial need for every kWh that can be produced. India needs to produce affordable power and not replace power. However, plans to add capacity in power, as has been seen with coal and nuclear power programs, rarely reach their targets. As compared to other countries that already have running solar energy programs, India
27
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011 28
has amongst the highest levels of irradiation. This reduces the energy cost per kWh.
Dr. engelmeierPerhaps the key difference is that, India has, through the auction process, significantly brought down the costs of PV plants. India has increased the competitive pressure in the industry significantly. All players along the value chain have therefore stretched themselves more than ever before. This is extremely significant for the development of solar in India as well as for the world. Reduction of prices in India has been significant in driving global prices. It is very difficult to argue that they should be much higher anywhere in the global market. India, therefore, has been as fundamental in advancing the case for solar power as a business opportunity as China has been for solar as a manufacturing opportunity. India has added an entrepreneurial edge and a competitive pressure to the industry.
What is the market potential of the Indian solar industry? How realistic are the growth projections?
Mr. HerzogThe NSM and various state policies at present have capacity addition plans of more than 20GW until 2022. Commercial parity in India is expected by 2017. This will further boost the solar market and make the case for de-central solar power stronger. Our estimate is that by 2017 itself we will have a total installed capacity of more than 11GW and by 2022 we could be having close to 30GW of installed capacity.
In terms of the potential, the overall energy structure under the NSM is focussed on CSP and larger MW scale power plants. However, on-grid power generation will be limited because of the intermittency of solar power generation and limited land space. This, in my view, will build a case to boost off-grid solar power in the
future. Currently, there is not enough policy support for off-grid.
Dr. engelmeierYes, reaching grid parity or commercial parity is going to change the market significantly. I believe it will be an inflection point, and will reset the market potential of solar industry in India, given India’s massive energy demand. Innovation in energy storage technologies will bring a second inflexion point which will boost the de-central systems further.
What are the challenges for the industry at the moment and what can be done to overcome them?
Dr. engelmeierWhat can the government do to facilitate the growth? One is net- metering for back-up options; the second is to reform electricity prices. India’s electricity prices at present are not reflecting the actual costs of generation. We need to stop subsidizing electricity for the end consumers. This will help us reach grid parity sooner.
In such a case, if we produce solar power cheaper than grid power and then net-metering will become an off-grid topic. As PV off-grid will be a cheaper option and if, for whatever reason you produce power and it’s not off taken, you will always have the option to feed back power into the grid. At the same time, this will also balance the demand and supply.
Mr. HerzogI believe stopping subsidies will open the energy market for fair competition. The Indian government must also invest in R & D and for India to become a technology leader and the focus should be on de-central applications, low cost applications, mini-grids, rural applications, and storage. Then, a world class industry can be formed which can be also have a good export strength.
India has increased the competitive pressure in the
industry significantly. All players along
the value chain have therefore stretched
themselves more than ever before.
I believe stopping subsidies will open the
energy market for a fair competition.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011
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© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011 30
pena
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© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 201131
NSM
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kr
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loI
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MS
NTP
C Vi
dyut
Vya
par
Nig
am L
td.
Polit
ical
Act
ion
Com
mitt
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Guj
arat
Ele
ctri
city
Reg
ulat
ory
Com
mis
sion
Guj
arat
Urj
a Vi
kas
Nig
am L
td.
Raj
asth
an R
enew
able
Ene
rgy
Corp
orat
ion
Ltd.
Kar
nata
ka R
enew
able
Ene
rgy
Dev
elop
men
t Ltd
.
Lett
er o
f int
ent
Elec
tric
ity s
uppl
y co
mpa
nies
lege
nds
pro
ceD
ur
Al
oVe
rVI
eW F
or
IN
DIA
N S
olA
r p
olI
cIeS
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011 32
INSTAlleD cApAcITy MAp oF INDIA (90MW)*
---------------------* - As on November 22nd 2011
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 201133
BRIDGE TO INDIA is a consulting company with an entrepreneurial approach based in New Delhi, Munich and Hamburg. Founded in 2008, the company focuses on renewable energy technologies in the Indian market. BRIDGE TO INDIA offers market intelligence, strategic consulting and project development
services to Indian and international investors, companies and institutions. Through customized solutions for its clients, BRIDGE TO INDIA contributes to a sustainable world by implementing the latest technological and systemic innovations where their impact is the highest.
© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011
BrIDGe To INDIA offers an exciting business proposition for commercial and industrial electricity consumers and rooftop owners in the field of rooftop solar energy. We offer ELECTRICITY CONSUMERS a reduction in your electricity bills and ROOFTOP OWNERS an additional income from your rooftop – all at absolutely Zero INVeSTMeNT. We will invest in a solar PV plant on your rooftop and provide you with competitively priced, secure power from it.
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© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2011
BRIDGE TO INDIA is a consulting company with an entrepreneurial approach based in New Delhi, Munich and Hamburg. Founded in 2008, the company focuses on renewable energy technologies in the Indian market. BRIDGE TO INDIA offers market intelligence, strategic consulting and project development services to Indian and international investors, companies and institutions. Through customized solutions for its clients, BRIDGE TO INDIA contributes to a sustainable world by implementing the latest technological and systemic innovations where their impact is the highest.
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