Impossible Trinity

B ba bt kh thi

MundellFleming Model The 1999 Nobel Prize

Winner "for his analysis of

monetary and fiscal policy

under different exchange

rate regimes and his

analysis of optimum

currency areas

In any open economy, policy

makers are confronted with

a trilemma, which is known

as the Impossible Trinity, demonstrated by Nobel

Laureate Robert Mundell

Professor Robert Mundell

H phng trnh IS-LM-CM

Y = C(Y-T) + I(r) + G + NX(e)

M/P = L(Y, r)

r = r*

Ta (Y, r)

IS*-LM*

Y = C(Y-T) + I(r*) + G + NX(e)

M/P = L(Y, r*)

Ta (Y, e)

Vn hnh chnh sch trong IS*-LM*

Fiscal Policy Monetary

Policy

ER Policy

Fixed ER Hiu qu V ch 1. Devaluation (Ph gi)

2. Revaluation

(Nng gi)

Floating ER V ch Hiu qu Lm th no ng tin ca h ln gi/gim gi?

Tho lun 1. Ba iu khng th xy ra ng thi l g v v

sao chng khng th xy ra ng thi?

2. Ti sao ba iu khng th xy ra ng thi li cng din ra rt mnh t sau thp nin 1990s?

T do ha ti chnh

Da vo thng mi

Thng mi v FDI

3. C cch no dung ha hay t c c ba?

Ba mc tiu chnh sch quan trng

1. T gi hi oi c nh (n nh) Thc y s n nh ngoi thng v u t.

2. Vn quc t di chuyn t do Thc y s hi nhp, chia s ri ro v hiu qu.

3. Chnh sch tin t c lp Cng c qun l chu k kinh t v n nh ha nn kinh t.

Ba iu khng th xy ra ng thi (The Impossible Trinity or Trilemma)

1. C ch t gi hi oi c nh

2. Vn di chuyn hon ton t do

3. Chnh sch tin t c lp

Free capital

flows (2)

Independent

monetary

policy (3)

Fixed

exchange

rate (1)

Mt nc phi chn mt cnh ca tam gic v t b gc i din.

(1) + (2) hm li

sut phi bng nhau mu thun vi (3)

(2) + (3) hm thay

i t gi k vng mu thun vi (1)

(3) + (1) hm khc

nhau sinh li trong v ngoi nc mu thun vi (2)

Asia confronts the impossible trinity Ila PatnaiK and Ajay Shah (2010)

11 quc gia: India, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia,

Philippines, Vietnam, v Korea.

Hai khi nim:

De facto (what they do)

De jure (what they promise to do)

De facto: ang hng theo hi nhp nhanh CA m khng c s linh hot trong c ch t gi dn n hin tng chnh sch tin t thun chu k khi dng vn thun chu k.

Tho lun Ti sao phi d tr ngoi t v n nh t gi?

Nhp khu (X thng?)

Ngha v n $ ngn hn (Y thng?) Khng hong BOP, ngn hng, sudden stop

Kim sot cc c sc bn ngoi

.

D tr ngoi hi (FR) - khi no cn? Th ni t gi: khng cn

C nh t gi + ng ca: khng cn

C nh t gi + m ca: cn

Chi ph ca d tr ngoi hi?

Chnh sch v hiu ha v 3 iu khng th xy ra ng thi Mi lin kt gia th trng ngoi hi v th

trng tin t trong nc FR (Foreign Reserves: d tr ngoi t)

C ch chnh sch v hiu ha hay chnh sch b tr (Sterilization Policy)

Dng vn vo/ra v chnh sch v hiu ha

Liu chnh sch v hiu ha c gip t c 3 mt cch bn vng?

D tr ngoi t v v hiu ha

Vic tch lu d tr vo nhng thi k bng pht kinh

t gip iu ho nh hng ca dng vn thun chu

k i vi t gi hi oi. Nu c b tr tho ng,

nhng chnh sch nh th c th gip t c c

hai mc tiu t gi hi oi v li sut, nh trnh

c tnh th ba iu khng th xy ra ng thi ca

cc nn kinh t m.

Trung Quc - BOP thng d kp

Source: HKMA, Half-Yearly Monetary and Financial Stability Report, June 2008

Nhng cng c v hiu ha ca Trung Quc Ngun: Fan Gang (2010) Vn :

Lm pht (4-5%)

Khng phi tng trng nng!? (10% nm)

RRR trc y (sau 2008) ngn over-supply of money t the anti-crisis stimulus package

RRR gn y (sau 2010) nhm v hiu ha passive money supply l do the increase in foreign-exchange reserves

Nhng cng c v hiu ha ca Trung Quc RRR (t l d tr bt buc)

Tri phiu chnh ph

Trn tn dng v hn mc tn dng

V hiu ha tin hnh n bao gi? RRR cao n bao nhiu?

Tr li cao RRR

Kim sot li sut tin gi v cho vay (3 im %)

Nng gi RMB dn dn

Gim bt t l tit kim (52%GDP 2009)

Ci cch thu, an sinh x hi

Khuyn khch u t ra bn ngoi

Nhng cng c v hiu ha ca Trung Quc Trc tnh hnh thng d cn cn thanh ton ln

trong nhng nm gn y, gii php kim sot vn v tch ly d tr ngoi t i km vi chnh sch v hiu ha v kim sot tn dng tr thnh nhng cng c ch yu c s dng bi cc c quan chc trch tin t nhm hn ch nhng tc ng n nn kinh t ni a, nht l i vi cc iu kin tin t trong nc; trong khi s ln gi ni t mc c th kim sot c c th l mt phng thc khc nhm chia s tc ng ny.

C g sai t bi vit? http://vnexpress.net/gl/kinh-doanh/2012/11/thong-doc-ngan-hang-xin-nhan-

mot-nua-giai-nobel/

Dn li l thuyt b ba bt kh thi ni ting trong kinh t hc (khng th ng thi thc hin chnh sch tin t kim ch lm pht, duy tr tng trng v n nh t gi cng lc), Thng c Bnh cho rng mi chnh sch, c bit l chnh sch v m th khng th no p ng c mi yu cu.

"Ngi ta tm ra b 3 bt kh thi gia tng trng, lm pht v t gi, ng c quc t cho gii thng Nobel. Vy m hin nay chng ta phi va lm sao kim ch c lm pht m vn phi tng trng. Ti c ln ni a vi Ch tch Quc hi l em ch cn na gii thng Nobel cng c, nu em lm c mt trong hai", ng ni.

T vn chnh sch Gii thch ti sao chnh ph khng th kim sot

c c cung tin v t gi khi c s di chuyn ca dng vn quc t.

Bn s t vn iu g vi chnh ph khi c mt n lc kim gi t gi hi oi c nh v ng thi vi kim sot lm pht?