Belgrade City Report - Građevinski projekti i razvoj...
Transcript of Belgrade City Report - Građevinski projekti i razvoj...
REAL ESTATE
BELGRADE
Q1 2013
Izveštaj o BeograduT1 2013
on point
Belgrade City ReportQ1 2013
2 On Point • Belgrade City Report• Q1 2013
Economy/Investment
Economy
After two successive years of economic growth, the Serbian
economy faced a significant drop of 1.7% in 2012, largely due to the
mid-year elections, a weak agricultural season and general
economic turmoil elsewhere in Europe. According to the data
officially published by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia,
the economy contracted by 2.0% year-on-year in the last quarter of
2012. The highest fall was recorded in the sector of construction
(24.7%) and in the sector of electricity, gas, steam and air
conditioning supply (7.1%). The sectors that recorded growth and
successfully ended the last quarter were: the sectors of information
and communication (11.4%), financial and insurance activities
(5.9%) and manufacturing (4.9%). IHS Global Insight estimates the
country’s recovery in 2013 at 2.1% GDP growth. This scenario
seems quite optimistic and is probably based on the expected
industrial growth lead by FIAT, which at the moment presents one of
the main hopes for Serbia.
GDP Growth (%) Rast BDP(%)
Source/Izvor: IHS Global Insight, Country Report, April 2013
In 2012, Serbia continued to struggle with very high unemployment
as a result of weakened economy. Some 172,422 people lost their
jobs in Serbia in 2012, which pushed the unemployment rate among
the working population to 24.6%. Industries such as construction,
textile, metal and hospitality have been the hardest hit by job losses.
The unemployment rate growth is not estimated to slow down or to
drop over the next twelve months; labour market recovery will highly
depend on development of the real sector, rapid re-industrialization
as well as foreign investment.
Very cold weather in February last year, a drought in the summer,
presidential and government elections have all placed an upward
pressure on the inflation rate throughout 2012. In Q4 2012, the
Serbian economy recorded double-digit inflation at 12.2% due to
cost-push pressures on food prices, past depreciation of the dinar,
the effects of VAT and excise increases, and administered price
growth.
Year-on-year industrial production in February 2013, w, increased
by 13.1% but, compared to the 2012 average, it decreased by 6.0%.
Unemployment Rate (%) Stopa nazaposlenosti (%)
Source/Izvor: IHS Global Insight, Country Report, April 2013
Serbia remains one of the countries in the region with the lowest
salaries and purchasing power. In February 2013, the average net
salary in Serbia amounted to 43,371 RSD or €389. According to the
Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, the individual
consumption expenditures of households amounted to 49,700 RSD
or €439, of which the expenditures for food and non-alcoholic
beverages made up the largest share at 42.9%
Political Situation
The new government established in July 2012 adopted set of public
finance stabilization measures for economic recovery; however, we
still have not seen any real reforms of the tax, pension, healthcare
and educational systems or, public sector and public enterprises. On
the other hand, since elected, the government has been carrying out
a strong anti-corruption campaign.
Serbia is currently continuing its very difficult bilateral talks with
Kosovo, which are a precondition for launching official EU accession
negotiations.
-4.0
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On Point • Belgrade City Report• Q1 2013 3
Privreda/Investicije
Privreda
Nakon dvogodišnjeg uzastopnog rasta, srpska privreda se suočila
sa značajnim padom od 1,7% u 2012. godini, zbog izbora održanih
sredinom godine, slabom poljoprivrednom sezonom i opštom lošom
ekonomskom situacijom u Evropi. Na osnovu zvaničnih podataka
koje je objavio Statistički zavod Republike Srbije, u poslednjem
tromesečju 2012. zabeležen je privredni pad od 2,0% u odnosu na
poslednje tromesečje 2011. Najveći pad zabeležen je u
građevinskom sektoru (24,7%) i sektoru snabdevanja električnom
energijom, gasom i parom (7,1%). Sektori koji su zabeležili rast i
uspešno završili tromesečje su: sektor informisanja i komunikacija
(11,4%), sektor finansijskih delatnosti i delatnosti osiguranja (5,9%) i
sektor prerađivačke industrije (4,9%). IHS Global Insight za 2013.
godinu predviđa oporavak privrede i porast BDP od 2,1%. Ova
prognoza deluje prilično optimistično, a verovatno je zasnovana na
očekivanom porastu industrijske proizvodnje predvođene FIAT-om,
koji u ovom trenutku predstavlja jedinu nadu za Srbiju.
CPI (%) Inflacija (%)
Source/Izvor: IHS Global Insight, Country Report, April 2013
U 2012. godini se Srbija borila sa visokom nezaposlenošću, kao
posledicom slabe privrede. Nekih 172.422 ljudi je ostalo bez posla u
Srbiji, što je nezaposlenost među radno sposobnom populacijom
povećalo na 24,6%. Gubitkom posla su najviše pogođeni zaposleni
u građevinskom, tekstilnom , metalskom i uslužnom sektoru.
Rast nezaposlenosti neće usporiti niti će se smanjiti u narednih
dvanaest meseci; oporavak tržišta radne snage veoma će zavisiti od
razvoja realnog sektora, brzine reindustrijalizacije kao i priliva
stranih investicija.
Veoma hladno vreme u februaru prošle godine, letnja suša kao i
predsednički i parlamentarni izbori sredinom godine povećali su
inflaciju u 2012. U poslednjem kvartalu 2012. srpska privreda je
zabeležila dvocifrenu inflaciju od 12,2%, zbog povećanja cena
hrane, prethodnog slabljenja dinara, povećanja PDV-a i као i rasta
regulisanih cena.
Industrijska proizvodnja u Srbiji u februaru 2013. godini povećana je
za 13,1% u odnosu na februar 2012, a smanjena za 6,0% u odnosu
na godišnji prosek 2012.
Yields % Stope prinosa %
Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, April 2013
Srbija je i dalje među zemljama sa najnižom platom i kupovnom
moći. Prosečna neto zarada u Srbiji je u februaru 2013. iznosila
43.371 RSD ili €389. Na osnovu podataka Statističkog zavoda
Srbije, domaćinstva u Srbiji mesečno troše 49.700 RSD ili €439, od
čega se na hranu i bezalkoholna pića troši 42,9%.
Politička situacija
Nova Vlada koje je formirana u julu 2012. godine, donela je set
mera stabilizacije javnih finansija sa ciljem oporavka privrede; ipak
još uvek nisu urađene prave reforme poreskog, penzijskog,
zdravstvenog i obrazovnog sistema, kao ni reforme javnog sektora i
javnih preduzeća. S druge strane, otkako je izabrana, Vlada vodi
vrlo snažnu antikorupcijsku borbu.
Srbija trenutno prolazi kroz veoma teške i iscrpljujuće pregovore sa
Kosovom, koji su preduslov za početak zvaničnih pregovora za
pridruživanje Evropskoj Uniji.
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Sektor/Sektor
Yield/
Stopa prinosa
%
Changes on previous quarter/
Promene u odnosu na
prethodno tromesečje
Offices/Kancelarijski prostori 9.25% ↕
Retail/Maloprodajni prostori
Shopping Centers/tržni
centri
9.00% ↕
Logistics/Logistički objekti 10.25% ↕↕
↕
4 On Point • Belgrade City Report• Q1 2013
Office Market
Supply
In Q1 2013, the completion of Danube Business Centre (5,200 m2)
pushed the total office stock in Belgrade to 615,000 m2. The total
class A office stock stands at 331,000 m2 GLA, where the majority
(302,000 m2 or 91%) is located in New Belgrade, a growing
business district of the Serbian capital city.
In 2013, very limited new supply will be added to the market.
Currently, there is only one office project under active construction,
planned to be delivered by the end of the year, namely the Old Mill
Office Tower (3,870 m2), part of mixed-use hotel/commercial
complex in the close vicinity of Belgrade Fair.
Total Class A & B Stock (m2)
Ukupna ponuda prostora klase A i B (m2)
Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, April 2013
Demand
Take-up figures for the first quarter of 2013 show an increased
demand for office space. Total gross take-up in Q1 amounted to
15,559 m2, which represents a ca. 58% increase in total gross take-
up compared to the last quarter of 2012.
Total net take-up which excludes contract renewals reached 10,259
m2. With 8,959 m2, new leases took the largest portion of all
concluded lease deals in Q1. Expansions and contract renewals
amounted to 1,300 m2 and 5,200 m2 respectively.
From the analysis of individual office lease transactions, we
conclude that the deals for office space above 1,000 m2 are still
quite rare, making 15% of total lease transactions.
The majority of tenants on the Belgrade market still seek for the floor
plates between 100 and 400 m2. The major occupiers active on the
market include; IT, pharmaceutical and professional services
companies.
Vacancy
The vacancy rate has been constantly decreasing since 2010. In Q1
2013 we registered a 14% vacancy in class A and B office stock in
Belgrade. A further drop is expected over the next two years due to
very low new supply.
Office Completions (m2) and Vacancy Rates (%) Class A & B
Zavrsena izgradnja (m2) i stopa nepopunjenosti (%)
Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, April 2013
Rents and Yields
Prime office rents in Belgrade remained unchanged in Q1 2013.
Headline rents for A class premises in New Belgrade range between
€14 and €16/m2/month and we do not anticipate any changes over
the short term. However, landlords continue to offer incentives such
as rent free periods (usually three months), fit-out contributions and
additional free parking spaces. Rents for B class office space across
New Belgrade range between €9 and €13/m2/month and for
downtown between €10 and €12/m2/month.
The prime office yield in Belgrade is estimated at 9.25%.
0
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On Point • Belgrade City Report• Q1 2013 5
Kancelarijski prostori
Ponuda
Završetak poslovne zgrade Danube Business Center (5.200 m2) u
prvom kvartalu 2013.godine povećao je ukupnu ponudu
kancelarijskog prostora klase A i B na 615.000 m2. Ukupna ponuda
prostora klase A iznosi 331.000 m2, gde se većina (302.000 m2 ili
91%) nalazi na Novom Beogradu, poslovnom centru Beograda koji
se neprestano razvija.
U 2013. godini tržište će dobiti veoma malu ponudu
novoizgradjenog poslovnog prostora. Trenutno je samo jedan
projekat u fazi aktivne izgradnje čiji se završetak planira do kraja
godine. U pitanju je Stari Mlin (3.870 m2), deo mešovitog hotelsko-
komercijalnog prostora u neposrednoj blizini Beogradskog sajma.
Prime Office Yields %
Stopa prinosa prvoklasnog prostora %
Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, April 2013
Potražnja
Transakcije zabeležene u prvom kvartalu 2013. godine ukazuju na
povećanu tražnju za kancelarijskim prostorom. Ukupan bruto zakup
u prvom tromesečju iznosio je 15.559 m2, što predstavlja oko 58%
povećanja u odnosu na ukupan bruto zakup u poslednjem
tromesečju 2012. godine.
Ukupan neto zakup koji isključuje obnove ugovora o zakupu iznosio
je 10.259 m2. Novi zakupi kancelarijskog prostora sa 8.959 m2,
predstavljaju najveci udeo u svim zaključenim zakupima u prvom
kvartalu. Proširenja i obnove ugovora iznosili su 1.300 i 5.200 m2.
Analizom pojedinačnih transakcija zakupa, zaključujemo da su
zakupi kancelarijskog prostora preko 1.000 m2 i dalje retki na tržištu,
a u prvom kvartalu ove godine oni su iznosili 15% od ukupnog broja
transakcija.
Većina zakupaca u Beogradu i dalje traži kancelarijske prostore od
100 do 400 m2. Zakupci koji su uzimali prostore su bile IT
kompanije, farmaceutske kuće I kompanije koje se bave pružanjem
profesionalnih usluga.
Raspoloživi prostor
Stopa nepopunjenog prostora je u stalnom padu od 2010. godine. U
prvom tromesečju 2013. godine stopa praznog prostora u poslovnim
zgradama klase A I B u Beogradu iznosila je 14%. Očekuje se dalji
pad u naredne dve godine zbog slabe ponude novoizgrađenog
kancelarijskog prostora.
Prime Rents €/m2/month
Cene zakupa prvoklasnog prostora €/m2/mesečno
Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, April 2013Cene zakupa i stope prinosa
Visine zakupa i stope prinosa
Cene zakupa prvoklasnog prostora u Beogradu ostale su
nepromenjene u prvom tromesečju 2013.godine. Cene zakupa
kancelarijskog prostora klase A na Novom Beogradu kreću se od
€14 do €16/m2/mesečno i ne očekujemo nikakve promene u
kratkoročnom periodu. Ipak, vlasnici prostora i dalje nude podsticaje
poput rent-free perioda (obično 3 meseca), dodatna parking mesta
bez naknade, učešće zakupodavca u troškovima završnih radova.
Cene zakupa za kancelarijski prostor klase B na Novom Beogradu
iznose između €9 do €13/m2/mesečno a centru grada od €10 do
€12/m2/mesečno.
Procenje se da stopa prinosa za prvoklasne kancelarijske prostore
u Beogradu iznosi 9,25%.
8.00%8.25%8.50%8.75%9.00%9.25%9.50%9.75%
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6 On Point • Belgrade City Report• Q1 2013
Retail Market
Supply
Although the completion of Stadium Center at Voždovac was
scheduled for the end of March, the official opening was
postponed for the the last week of April. Therefore, the shopping
centre stock in Belgrade remained unchanged over the last
quarter of 2013, at 158,700 m2 GLA. Prime shopping centre
supply in Belgrade is located in three assets, amounting to
98,000 m2 GLA. Translated into shopping centre density figures,
Belgrade remains at the lowest position of the European
shopping centre scale, with only 60 m2 GLA of retail space in
modern shopping centres per 1,000 inhabitants.
Although the scheme has been operating since Q3 2012, the
official opening of Karaburma Shopping Center (12,000 m2 GLA)
took place in March 2013. The first retailers to enter the shopping
centre are Roda supermarket, DM and Merkur. Jysk opened its
store in November 2012, and the official opening saw the
entrance of Sport Vison, Takko Fashion, Deichmann, C&A,
BigBang and Cotton4Family.
Shopping Center Stock in Belgrade (m2)
Ponuda tržnih centara u Beogradu (m2)
Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, April 2013
In 2013, we expect the completion of Stadium Center Voždovac
to push the total shopping centre stock in Belgrade to 193,700
m2. We do not expect any further new shopping centre supply to
be added to the market in 2013.
Large sized pipeline projects in Belgrade include: Delta Planet
(75,000 m2 GLA) which has already signed agreements with
hypermarket and multiplex cinema operators; Višnjička Plaza
(40,000 m2 GLA) that is negotiating with anchors and Ada Mall
(30,000 m2 GLA).
Demand
New international retailers to enter the Belgrade include: Bagatt
(Italian shoe retailer) and Desigual (a Spansh fashion brand) who
have signed up for retail space in Delta City and Ušće Shopping
Center respectively. In addition, Romanian electonics store Altex
have secured 1,800 m2 in Stadium Shopping Center. Over the
first quarter we also saw the expansion of C&A, Takko and
Deichmann that opened the stores in Karaburma shopping
center.
Total Annual Spend in € per Capita in Belgrade
Source/Izvor: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia
The demand from international retailers for modern retail
schemes continues to be very strong; the main obstacle for new
entrants or retailers looking to expand is the limited supply of
modern shopping centres.
The vacancy rate in prime shopping centres is close to zero and
the majority of current vacant space is largely due to tenant mix
changes.
Rents and Yields
Prime rents and yields remained unchanged in Q1. Prime
shopping center rent for a 100 to 200 m2 retail unit stands at
€65/m2/month, while rent for such a unit on Knez Mihajlova
Street is €80/m2/month. Average rents in prime shopping centres
in Belgrade range between €27 and €29/m2/month. The prime
shopping centre yield stands at 9%.
0
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On Point • Belgrade City Report• Q1 2013 7
Maloprodajni prostori
Ponuda
Iako je završetak izgradnje Stadion centra na Voždovcu bio
planiran za kraj marta, zvanično otvaranje je odloženo za
poslednju nedelju aprila. Tako je ukupna ponuda maloprodajnog
prostora u tržnim centrima u Beogradu ostala nepromenjena u
prvom tromesečju 2013. i iznosi 158.700 m2. Maloprodajni prostor
u prvoklasnim centrima u Beogradu smešten je u tri objekta i
njegova površina iznosi 98.000 m2. Po glavi stanovnika, Beograd
nudi 60m2 modernog prodajnog prostora u tržnim centrima, zbog
čega se nalazi na najnižem mestu na evropskoj skali tržnih
centara.
Iako ovaj tržni centar radi od trećeg tromesečja 2012, tržni centar
Karaburma je zvanično otvoren u martu 2013. Zakupci koji su prvi
ušli u tržni centar su Roda supermarket, DM i Merkur. Jysk je
otvorio svoj maloprodajni prostor u novembru 2012., a sa
zvaničnim otvaranjem ušli su Sport Vision, Takko Fashion,
Deichmann, C&A, Big Bang, Cotton4Family.
Prime Shopping Center Yields
Stopa prinosa prvoklasnih tržnih centara
Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, April 2013
U 2013. se očekuje završetak Stadion centra na Voždovcu, što će
povećati ponudu tržnih centara u Beogradu na 193.700 m2. Osim
ovog projekta, u Beogradu neće biti izgrađeno novih tržnih
centara.
Veliki projekti koji su planirani u Beogradu su: Delta Planet
(75.000 m2) koji već ima potpisan ugovor o zakupu sa
hipermarketom i bioskopom, Višnjička Plaza (40.000 m2) koja
pregovara sa ankorima i Ada Mall (30.000 m2).
Potražnja
Novi brendovi koji su se na tržištu pojavili su Bagatt, italijanski
modni brend za obuću i Desigual, španski modni brend, koji su
zakupili lokale u tržnom centru Delta City, odnosno Ušću. Takođe,
rumunski brend Altex je obezbedio maloprodajni prostor od 1.800
m2 u Stadion Centru . Tokom prvog tromsečja primetili smo
ekspanziju brendova poput C&A ,Takko Fashion i Deichmann koji
su otvorili lokale u tržnom centru Karaburma.
Prime rents €/m2/month
Cene zakupa prvoklasnog prostora €/m2/mesečno
Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, April 2013
Potražnja stranih brendova za modernim prodajnim prostorom je i
dalje snažna; glavna prepreka brendovima koji nisu prisutni na
tržištu ili već postojećim koji žele da prošire svoju mrežu jeste
nedovoljna ponuda maloprodajnog prostora u modernim tržnim
centrima. Stopa nepopunjenog prostora u tržnim centrima je
skoro jednaka nuli a prazne lokale koje posetioci vide su samo
naizgled prazni, zbog promene zakupaca.
Visine zakupa i stope prinosa
Zakupi i stope prinosa prvoklasnih prostora ostali su nepromenjeni
u prvom tromesečju 2013.godine. Visina zakupa prvoklasnog
maloprodajnog prostora površine od 100 do 200 m2 u modernim
tržnim centrima iznosi €65/m2/mesečno, dok se isti takav prostor u
Knez Mihajlovoj ulici može iznajmiti za €80/m2/mesecno.
Prosečne visine zakupa u prvoklasnim tržnim centrima u
Beogradu kreću se od €27 do €29/m2/mesečno. Stopa prinosa za
prvoklasne tržne centre iznosi 9%.
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High Street Shopping Centers
8 On Point • Belgrade City Report• Q1 2013
Market Practice
Leasing Market Practice
Lease length
• Average lease length is 5 years, 3 – 5 years are common in
the city centre and 5 (rarely 7) years on the outskirts
• In a few cases longer leases can be agreed
• 3 year break options are becoming more common
Payment Terms
• Rents are quoted in € and paid monthly in advance in either €
or RSD according to the exchange rate on the day of the
payment
Rental Deposit
• It is common to agree on a cash deposit or bank guarantee
equal to 3 months rent for all types of premises (office, retail
and industrial)
• Indexation is annually in line with European CPI
Other Charges
• Service and energy charges (Utilities and direct consumption
are paid separately)(offices and industrial)
• Service charges and marketing costs (retail)
Insurance
• The landlord covers costs of building insurance (recovered by
service charges). The tenant covers insurance of own
premises, contents and civil liabilities
Incentives
• Offered by the landlords in form of 3 month rent free period, fit-
out contributions and free of charge additional parking space
Tržišna praksa zakupa prostora
Dužina zakupa
• Prosečna dužina zakupa je 5 godina - uglavnom se prostori u
centru grada zakupljuju na 3 – 5 godina, a na periferiji na 5
(retko 7 godina)
• U malom broju slučajeva se vrši zakup prostora na duži period
• Sve su češće mogućnosti raskida ugovora nakon 3 godine
Uslovi plaćanja
• Cene zakupa se navode u € a plaćaju se mesečno unapred ili u
€ ili u RSD prema valutnom kursu na dan plaćanja
Depozit
• Praksa je da se depozit plaća u kešu ili bankarskom garancijom
u iznosu od tri mesečne rente za sve vrste prostora
(kancelarijski, maloprodajni i industrijski)
• Indeksacija se vrši godišnje i usklađena je sa evropskim rastom
potrošačkih cena
Ostali troškovi
• Troškovi usluga i potrošnje električne energije (troškovi
održavanja i direktne potrošnje plaćaju se posebno)
(kancelarijski i industrijski prostori)
• Troškovi usluga i marketinga (maloprodajni prostori)
Osiguranje
• Vlasnik prostora pokriva troškove osiguranja zgrade (naplaćuje
se od naknade za troškove usluga). Zakupac plaća osiguranje
za sopstvene prostorije, pokretnu imovinu i civilna lica
Podsticaji
• Vlasnici prostora prilikom izdavanja mogu davati i podsticaje u
vidu izdavanja prostora na period od 3 meseca bez naknade,
uređenja prostora o sopstvenom trošku ili dodatna parking
mesta gratis
Jones Lang LaSalle offices
Belgrade
Bulevar Mihajla Pupina 6, 11070 Novi Beograd
Serbia
+ 381 11 22 00 101
+ 381 11 22 00 102
Contacts
Jens Moller Madsen
Managing Director SEE
Jones Lang LaSalle
Croatia
+385 1 4826 114
www.joneslanglasalle.com
Andrew Peirson
Managing Director
Jones Lang LaSalle
Serbia
+381 11 22 00 103
www.joneslanglasalle.com
Sonja Janković
Research Analyst
Jones Lang LaSalle
Serbia
+381 11 22 00 110
www.joneslanglasalle.com
Belgrade City Report Q1 2013
OnPoint reports from Jones Lang LaSalle include quarterly and annual highlights of real estate activity, performance and specialised
surveys and forecasts that uncover emerging trends.
www.joneslanglasalle.com
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Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We
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