Atinegaar Think-Tank Resume

Atinegaar Think-Tank’s professional activities are in the

below mentioned fields: •  Futures Studies •  Foresight (Scenario Planning, Roadmapping, Delphi,…) •  Management of Technology •  Strategic Thinking •  Science and Technology Policy Making •  Data Mining and Text Mining (Developing related softwares) •  Patent and Technology Life Cycle Analysis •  National, Regional and Spatial Planning •  Holding conferences and workshops 2

FutureStudies,ForesightandScenarioPlanning

Spa7alPlanning&UrbanManagement

Roadmapping

Na7onalScience&TechnologyPolicyPlans

DataMining,Mapping&TextMining3

4

Atinegaar Activities’ Sectors

Energy

Information and Communication Technologies

National and Regional Policy

Documents

ForesightonIran’sPetrochemicalIndustry

HumanResourcesManagementofPetroleumIndustryScenarios

ColorSciencesandTechnologiesRoadmap

Na?onalGasExportStrategies:ARobustPlanning

PatentAnalysisandTechnologyForecas?ngofGasTurbineBladeTechnologies

Na?onalIranianOilCompanyStrategies

6

7


Commissionedby:TheNa7onalPetrochemicalCompany(NPC)

2012-2014

8

HumanResourcesManagementofPetroleumIndustryScenarios

Commissionedby:Ins7tuteforInterna7onalEnergyStudies,MinistryofPetroleum

2007-2008

9

ColorSciencesandTechnologiesRoadmap

Commissionedby:Ins7tuteforColorScienceandTechnology(ICST)

2010-2012

10

Na7onalGasExportStrategies:ARobustPlanning

Commissionedby:Na7onalIranianGasExportCompany

2009-2010

11

PatentAnalysisandTechnologyForecas7ngofGasTurbineBladeTechnologies

Commissionedby:MAPNAGroup

2012-2013

12

Na7onalIranianOilCompanyStrategies

Commissionedby:ERPProject,Na7onalIranianOilCompany

2014-2015


13

Correc?onof

Strategies

Possible

futures

Strategies

andPo

licies

Benchmarking

WhitePapersAnalysis,Iden?fyPolicies,Strategies

andassump?ons

Scenarios RobustPlanning

Assump?onBased

Planning

Iden?fyKeyFactors

WhitePapersAnalysis

Interviewsw

ithExperts

Foresight on Iran’s Petrochemical Industry

Methodology

14

Iden?fyKeyFactors

WhitePapersAnalysis

Iden?fyDrivingForces

Iden?fyUncertain?es

DetermineScenariosDimension

RobustPlanning,

Assump?on-BasedPlanning

StrategicAnalysisofIran

PetrochemicalIndustry


Different activities of projects

15

Scenario 2 Scenario 1

Scenario 3 Scenario 4

FeedUnavailability

Disconnec?onbetweenWorldand

Industry

Interac?onbetweenWorldandIndustry

FeedAvailability

•  Globalinterac7onsandincreasinginterna7onalcoopera7on

•  Thepresenceofinterna7onalcompanies

•  Thesustainableaccessofpetrochemicalindustrytothefeed

•  globaldisconnec7onanddecreaseinterna7onalcoopera7on

•  Thelackofsustainableaccessofpetrochemicalindustrytothe

•  Occurrenceofpeakoilintheworld

•  Globaldisconnec7onanddecreaseinterna7onalcoopera7on

•  Thesustainableaccessofpetrochemicalindustrytothefeed


Scenario Dimensions •  globalintegra7onand

Increasinginterna7onalcoopera7on

•  Thepresenceofinterna7onalcompanies

•  Thelackofsustainableaccessofpetrochemicalindustrytothefeed

16

1.   Valueaddedimprovement2.   Branding3.   Coopera?onwithworld’s

leadingcompanies4.   Investment5.   FeedSupply 6.   Protec?ngtheenvironment

Foresight on Iran Petrochemical Industry

Corporate Strategies of Iran Petrochemical Industry

17

PatentAnalysisandTechnologyForecas?ngofGasTurbineBladeTechnologies

18

Patent Trends in the field of “Gas Turbine Blade”

Increaseinpaten?ngrate

Competitiveness of Countries in “Gas Turbine Blade”

63%9%

8%

6%

5%4%3%

2%

USA

Japan

Germany

Canada

UnitedKingdom

Switzerland

France

Israel

7,275 USA 1,031 Japan 925 Germany 733 Canada 561 UnitedKingdom 412 Switzerland 333 France 209 Israel

1 GeneralElectricCo. 2513 2 UnitedTechnologiesCorpora7on 1,376 3 Rolls-RoyceLimited 698 4 SiemensAk7engesellschab 350 5 FloridaTurbineTechnologies,Inc. 274 6 MitsubishiHeavyIndustries,Ltd. 263 7 Hitachi,Ltd. 207 8 Alstom 206 9 Wes7nghouseElectricCorp. 198 10 SiemensEnergy,Inc. 189 11 HoneywellInterna7onalInc. 158 12 Prae&WhitneyCanadaCorp. 144 13 MTUAeroEnginesGmbH 110 14 SiemensWes7nghousePowerCorpora7on 107 15 Snecma 87 16 GeneralMotorsCorpora7on 84 17 HowmetResearchCorpora7on 57 18 SiemensPowerGenera7on,Inc. 57 19 KabushikiKaishaToshiba 54 20 SocieteNa7onaled'Etudeetde

Construc7ondeMoteursd'Avia7on 51

Competitiveness of Companies in “Gas Turbine Blade”

Top 5 Companies in “Gas Turbine Blade”

23%

13%

6% 6%

3%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

GeneralElectric UnitedTechnologies

Siemens Rolls-Royce FloridaTurbineTech.

CASTING in “Gas Turbine Blades”

Selected Technology Areas in Casting Single Crystal(SX) 1

Ceramic Tile 2

Ceramic Matrix Composites(CMC)/ Ceramic Blade 3

Digital Radiography 4

New Shaping Method for Ceramic Shell 5

Rapid Prototyping 6

Alloy Design(3rd, 4th Generation, RU containing Alloys) 7

Ultrasonic Core Leaching 8

Large Area Mask-less Photo-polymerization(LAMP) 9

Water Soluble Ceramic core 10

Reinforced Ceramic Mold/ Core 11

Permanent Ceramic Mold 12

Freeze Cast Process(FCP) 13

Titanum Aluminide Blade 14

Reinforced Ceramic Mold/ Core 15

Ultrasonic Core Leaching 16

Single Crystal (SX)

Patents: Technology Area: Gas Turbine Blade Technology Sub Area: Single Crystal (SX)

TechnologyLifeCycleof”SingleCrystal”

ShareofpatentsinSXamongallpatentsin“GasTurbineBlade”

Main active companies in SX Rank CompanyName

No.ofPatents

1 GeneralElectricCompany

(Schenectady,NY) 107


(Cincinna7,OH) 71

3 UnitedTechnologies

Corpora7on(Harhord,CT) 63

4 SiemensAk7engesellschab

(Munich,DE) 52

5 HowmetResearchCorpora7on

(Whitehall,MI) 30

6 FloridaTurbineTechnologies,

Inc.(Jupiter,FL) 21

7 Hitachi,Ltd.(Tokyo,JP) 20


(Niskayuna,NY) 19

9 SiemensWes7nghousePowerCorpora7on(Orlando,FL)

16

10 HoneywellInterna7onalInc.

(Morristown,NJ) 15

Rank CompanyName No.ofPatents

11 Rolls-RoyceCorpora7on

(Indianapolis,IN) 14

12 AllisonEngineCompany,Inc.

(Indianapolis,IN) 9

13 Rolls-Royceplc(London,GB) 8 14 Rolls-Royceplc(London,GB2) 8

15 SiemensAk7engesellschab

(Munchen,DE) 8

16 HowmetCorpora7on(Greenwich,

CT) 7

17 SNECMA(Paris,FR) 7

18 HoneywellInterna7onal,Inc.

(Morristown,NJ) 6

19 GeneralMotorsCorpora7on

(Detroit,MI) 5

20 GeneralElectricCo.(Cincinna7,

OH) 5

Competitiveness among main Companies in SX

72% of all patents in SX are being registered by 4 companies

No.ofPatents CompanyName Rank

207 GeneralElectric 1

81 Siemens 2

63 UnitedTechnologies 3

40 HowmetResearch 4 0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

General Electric Siemens United Technologies Howmet Research

Competitiveness among Countries in SX

Top Researchers in SX No. Name Surname City Country No.ofPatents

1 Ramgopal Darolia WestChester USA 47 2 MelvinRobert Jackson Niskayuna USA 21 3 Ching-Pang Lee Cincinna? USA 17 4 DonaldJ. Frasier Greenwood India 13 5 JosephDavid Rigney Milford USA 12 6 Ramesh Subramanian Oviedo USA 11 7 Irene Spitsberg Loveland USA 10 8 JeffreyAllan Pfaendtner BlueAsh USA 10 9 JonC. Schaeffer Milford USA 10 10 RobertEdward Schafrik Cincinna? USA 10 11 WilliamScoe Walston Mason USA 10

Color Sciences and Technologies Roadmap

30

Identification Technology Areas

First Filtration Of Technology Areas

Second Filtration of Technology Areas

Specify Prioritization of Technology Areas

S-Curve Fitting of Technology Areas

Specify Industries, Strategies and Functions and their Priorities

Final Roadmap of Color Sciences and Technologies

Colour Sciences and Technologies Roadmap

Methodology

31

Technology Attractiveness

Tech

nolo

gy C

apab

ility

Capability-Attractiveness Matrix for Common Technology Areas


Priori?za?onofCommonTechnologyAreasBetweenDifferentDepartments

32

Guide

Third Priority technology areas

Fourth Priority technology areas

Other Industries

First Priority technology areas

Second Priority technology areas

Industrial priorities

Each technology area meets specific industries. For example “Coating” has higher priority for paper, polymer, glass,

plastic and vehicle industries.

Some industries have higher priority than other industries like polymer,

oil and gas, etc.


TheRela?onshipbetweenSelectedIndustriesand

TechnologyAreas

33

RoadmapforCommonTechnologicalAreasbetweendifferentDepartmentofIns7tute

Market

Techno

logy

Areas

Strategies

Func7ons

Specific

Gene

ral

Research R & D management

Technology diffusion

Human Resources Training

Gide First Priority Second Priority Third Priority

BusinessView

TechnologicalView

Integrating

resources,

activities and

strategies to

achieve desired

technologies

and markets


Mainprojectoutputs

34

PilotForesightoftheMostAppropriateTechnologiesforIran2025(PAMFA)

RoadmapofMessagingSystemsforMobileTelecommunica?onCompanyofIran

DeveloptheCyberSecurityScience&TechnologyRoadmapbaseonForesightMethodology

ElectronicIndustryForesight:AScenario-BasedRoadmappingApproach

Composingtheblueprintof“Na?onalInforma?onandCommunica?onDevelopmentPolicies”

TechnologyRoadmapofCoreBanking(Mobile,InternetandDistribu?onChannels)

ClusteringtheBehaviorofClientsinSaderatBankofIran

36

37

PilotForesightoftheMostAppropriateTechnologiesforIran2025(PAMFA)

Commissionedby:Na7onalResearchIns7tuteForSciencePolicyandIranHitechIndustriesCenter

2007-2010

38

RoadmapofMessagingSystemsforMobileTelecommunica7onCompanyofIran

Commissionedby:MobileTelecommunica7onCompanyofIran

2008-2009

39

DeveloptheCyberSecurityScience&TechnologyRoadmapbaseonForesightMethodology

Commissionedby:IranTelecommunica7onResearchCenter

2011-2013

40

ElectronicIndustryForesight:AScenario-BasedRoadmappingApproach

Commissionedby:ElectronicSupportFundforResearchDevelopment,MinistryofIndustriesandBusiness

2008-2009

41

Composingtheblueprintof“Na7onalInforma7onandCommunica7onDevelopmentPolicies”

Commissionedby:Informa7onandCommunica7onsTechnologyCouncil,Vice-PresidencyofScienceandTechnology

2015-2016

42

TechnologyRoadmapofCoreBanking(Mobile,InternetandDistribu7onChannels)

Commissionedby:Informa7csServicesCorpora7on

2012-2013

43

ClusteringtheBehaviorofClientsin“BankSaderatIran”

Commissionedby:BankSaderatIran

2011-2013

PilotForesightoftheMostAppropriateTechnologiesforIran

2025(PAMFA)

44

Pilot Foresight of the Most Appropriate Technologies for Iran 2025 (PAMFA)

• Workshop •  UNIDOSeminar •  8thJapan’sDelphi

preliminary

•  Designmainforesight •  ExpertRecogni?on:Co-nomina?on •  PanelSejng

PreForesight

•  Delphi/ScenarioPlanning MainForesight

•  Publica?on:Book/Paper • Workshop&Seminars •  ResultsPresenta?on:KeyEn??es&PolicyMakers

PostForesight

ProjectSteps

45


Aerospace

IT

MarineTelecommunica7on

Biotechnology

5 Expert Panels for 5 different fields

46

ConvergenceoilandMarineindustries

DivergenceofoilandMarineindustries

MiddleEastInsecurity

MiddleEastSecurity

Scenario4Seaof

Entertainment&Trade

Scenario2Seaof

Bloodyoil

Scenario3Marine

baelefield

Scenario1Goldensea


Sea Sector Scenarios

47

Na?onalScience&TechnologyMapCommissionedby:MinistryofScience,ResearchandTechnology;2008

AgriculturalScienceandTechnologyMapCommissionedby:MinistryofAgricultureJihad;2010-2011

RestructuringofNa?onalSystemforGimed,TalentedandEliteSystemCommissionedby:PresidencyofIran,Na7onalElitesFounda7on;2011

StrategicPlanningforCancerSocietyCommissionedby:IranCancerAssocia7on;2011

49

MarkaziProvinceSpa?alPlanning–aRegionalForesightCommissionedby:Markaziprovincegovernorship;2012-2014

HamedanProvinceSpa?alPlanning–aRegionalForesightCommissionedby:Hamedanprovincegovernorship;2010-2012

IndustrialSustainableDevelopmentofTehran:ARegionalForesightCommissionedby:TehranUrbanResearchandPlanningCenter;2008-2009

SocialandCulturalProfileofTehranCommissionedby:DepartmentofSocialandCulturalAffairsofTehranMunicipality;2009

50

RedesigningtheOrganiza?onalChartof“IranianSupremeCouncilforScience,ResearchandTechnology”Commissionedby:Na7onalResearchIns7tuteForSciencePolicy;2014

Composingthebylawof“VentureCapital”Commissionedby:ElectronicSupportFundforResearchDevelopment,MinistryofIndustriesandBusiness;2014

Composingthestatuteof“ScienceandTechnologySpecialRegions”Commissionedby:IranianSupremeCouncilforScience,ResearchandTechnology;2014

Spa?alStrategiesforCommerceSectorCommissionedby:Ins7tuteforTradeStudiesandResearch;2007-2008

51

Cogni?veScienceMapCommissionedby:SupremeCounciloftheCulturalRevolu7on;2009

DesigningtheCon?ngencyAlgorithmofForesightwithEmphasisonScenario-Planning,RoadmappingandDelphi;inDevelopingCountriesCommissionedby:IranHitechIndustriesCenter;2006-2007

TechnologyRoadmap;Megamotor’sCompanyPowertrainCommissionedby:MegaMotorHolding;2011

UNIDOPartneron"SeminaronTechnologyForesightMethods&Prac?cesForTheIslamicRepublicofIran“Commissionedby:IranHitechIndustriesCenter;2006

52

HamadanProvinceSpa?alPlanning–aRegionalForesight

53

Iden?fyFundamentalObjec?ves

Iden?fyDrivingForces

Iden?fyKeyFactors ScenariosStrategicRoadmapbasedon

Scenariostoachieve

Hamadan’sVision

WhitepaperAnalysis

PossibleFutures

Preferab

leFutures

VisionIden?fy

Stakeholder’sValues

Benchmarking

RobustPlanning

ExpertsPar?cipa?on

(Delphi)


Methodology

54

Economicgrowthandwealthcrea?on

SocialDevelopment

Securityandregionalbalance

DevelopingandstrengtheningofIranian-Islamicculture

Fund

amen

tal

Objec?v

es

Social

Economical

Technological

Spa?al

Environmental

5Diffe

rentAreas


Mainprojectoutputs

55

AgricultureIndustry

TourismandHandicram

Farming,GardeningandAnimalHusbandry

Priori?

es

Social

Economical

Technological

Spa?al

Environmental

5Diffe

rentAreas


Mainprojectoutputs

56

Division of Missions in Hamadan (Industrial Missions)Each city has a special mission

BuildingBlocks

Foodindustry

Steel

Cement

Cement

BiologicaladvancedtechnologiesPetrochemical

Woodandmetalindustry

Miningindustry


Mainprojectoutputs

57

Books

58

ScienceandTechnologyForesight

ScenarioPlanning Telecommunica?onTechnologyForesight:Iran

2025

BioTechnologyForesight:Iran2025

AerospaceTechnologyForesight:Iran2025

MarineTechnologyForesight:Iran2025

FuturesStudiesEncyclopedia

Informa?onTechnologyForesight:Iran2025 59

TheArtofLongView Foresight:FromConcepttoImplement

UNIDOTechnologyForesightManual

(Volume2)

UNIDOTechnologyForesightManual

(Volume1)

SectoralForesight

60

Training Seminar

61

Introduc7onOfForesightandFuturesStudies

ScenarioPlanning

TechnologyRoadmapping

PersonalFuturesStudies

62

Some of Atinegaar Clients at a Glance

63

Atinegaar Think-Tank Resume

Business

Transcript of Atinegaar Think-Tank Resume