Argus Ammonia

Argus Ammonia

key prICeS

Formerly Argus FMB Ammonia

View the methodology used to assess ammonia prices at www.argusmedia.com/methodology. your feedback is always welcome at [email protected]

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Issue 18-39 | Thursday 27 September 2018

Ammonia prices $/t27 Sep 20 Sep ±

fob

Yuzhny 335-350 335-350 34

Middle East 350-365 335-365 t

SE Asia and Australia spot 340-360 340-360 34

cfr

India 365-408 365-408 34

East Asia (excl Taiwan) 370-403 370-403 34

Tampa 355 330 t

Ammonia freightLoading Destination Tonnage rate ($/t)

Low High ±

Yuzhny NW Europe 23 46 58 t

Yuzhny Morocco 23 37 46 t

Ras al Khair South Korea 23 57 68 34

Ras al Khair WC India 23 25 32 34

Point Lisas US Gulf 23 37 47 34

Bontang East Asia 23 32 48 34

Ammonia price comparison $/t

- hh

200

250

300

350

400

15 Mar 3 May 21 Jun 9 Aug 27 Sep

east Asia cfr Caribbean fob netbacksoutheast Asia fob Middle East fob

exeCuTIVe SummAry

Tampa rise keeps October outlook firmIt was a mixed picture in the ammonia market this week as the monthly Tampa contract for October firmed by $25/t, while in India, the latest tender revealed a $15/t month-on-month fall for November shipments.

Production rates are rising at key supply hubs although most suppliers are tight and little spot material is on offer. In Yuzhny, the supply outlook is expected to start to improve in the weeks ahead, but shippers are faced with higher freight costs and the potential for delays when transiting through the Turkish straits.

mArkeT DrIVerS

Tampa prices rises $25/tYara and Mosaic have settled the Tampa contract price for October at $355/t cfr, a $25/t increase from the September 2018 contract.

FACT cargoes awarded at lower pricesFACT awarded its latest tender for two November shipments to Trammo at $393/t cfr and $388/t cfr, respectively.

Turkish delays affecting ammonia shipmentsThere are long delays in the Bosphorus strait with vessels taking around 5 days to transit through to Odessa instead of the usual 2-3 day transit time for mid-size vessels.

petronas to load Indonesian cargo for JapanPetronas has sold a cargo to a trader for delivery to Japan, priced on a formula-basis, and will load on the Navigator Glory in Bontang in the second-half of October.

OpZ awards gas supply tenderOdessa Port Plant (OPZ) has awarded its latest gas-tolling tender to ETFX UK Group.

30-60 DAy OuTLOOk

Discussions for mid to late October cargoes are understood to be taking place at current market levels. Further sharp price increases in early November appear unlikely.

Available on the Argus Publications App

For a full list of prices, see page 2

For a full list of freight rates, see page 3

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EuropE

YuzhnyYuzhny prices remain unchanged and a new sale into Turkey is estimated to netback to around $340/t fob, within our prevailing range of $335-350/t fob. Ahead of the closure of the ammonia pipeline on 29 September, pumping rates were down to 220t/hr today with 180t/hr coming from Togliatti-Azot and 40t/hr from Rossosh.

The ammonia plant at Rossosh is expected to restart in the next few days but the producer is currently deliver-ing volumes down to Yuzhny that it had in storage at the plant. Trammo and Rossosh are currently in negotiations for a mid-October cargo to load on the MaryCam Swan but no final deal was confirmed today. Rossosh is expected to load around 40,000t in October on the Navigator Jorf for OCP and the MaryCam Swan for Trammo.

There are long delays in the Bosphorus strait with vessels taking around 5 days to transit through to Odessa instead of the usual 2-3 day transit time for mid-size vessels. Since 1 September all ammonia vessels passing through the Turkish straits are required to travel in daylight hours with tug boat assistance, similar to restrictions previously in place on large 40,000t vessels. The permanent change to transit regula-tions will raise freight costs on all voyages in/out of Yuzhny, with freight increases estimated to have increased around $3-5/t on average.

Odessa Port Plant (OPZ) has awarded its latest gas-tolling tender to ETFX UK Group. Contract terms on gas supply will be discussed shortly, but a tentative date for the restart of the plant is expected to be end-October/early-November. Under the new tender which closed on 21 September, OPZ has outlined natural gas processing rates at $32/t for ammo-

Yuzhny vessel line-up SeptemberVessel Volume Shipper Destination Loading date

Gas Cobia 23,300 Ameropa Belgium 4-Sep

Clipper Venus 28,750 OCP Morocco 10-SepClipper Mars 40,000 Ameropa India 12-SepGas Snapper 23,300 Ameropa Morocco 16-SepClipper Odin 25,500 Ameropa Morocco 20-SepGas Grouper 23,300 Ameropa Turkey + Tunisia 24-SepTotal 164,150

OctoberClipper Venus 40,000 Ameropa Morocco 4-Oct

Gas Manta 23,300 Ameropa TBN 5-Oct

Gas Cobia 23,300 Ameropa TBN early-OctWilhelm Schulte 11,000 OCI NW Europe early-OctMaryCam Swan 15,000 Trammo TBN 15-17 Oct

Ammonia prices $/t

27 Sep 20 Sep ±

fob

Ventspils 339-340 339-340 nc

Yuzhny 335-350 335-350 nc

North Africa 340-352 340-352 nc

Middle East 350-365 335-365 8

US Gulf domestic (barge) $/st 300-311 300-311 nc

Caribbean (Tampa netback) 315 290 25

Caribbean/US Gulf spot 305-316 300-310 6

SE Asia and Australia spot 340-360 340-360 nc

SE Asia and Australia contract 330-350 330-350 nc

cfr

NW Europe (duty unpaid) 385-395 385-395 nc

NW Europe (duty paid/free)† 406-417 406-417 nc

North Africa 365-380 365-380 nc

India 365-408 365-408 nc

East Asia (excl Taiwan) 370-403 370-403 nc

Taiwan 370-380 360-380 5

Tampa 355 330 25

US Gulf 360 335 25

Natural gas

Henry hub $/mn Btu 3.06 2.94 0.12

TTF month ahead $/mn Btu 9.88 9.41 0.47

†this price range includes a duty level set at 5.5pc

Yuzhny line up data is available to Argus subscribers here

nia and $44/t for urea. The tender requested supply of up to 60mn m³/month of gas commencing from the beginning of October.

BalticUralchem reports that the latest ammonia cargo loading this week from Ventspils is priced in the mid-$340s /t fob, but this could not be confirmed with Yara by press-time. No Yara vessels were loading from Sillamae this week, but Acron am-monia production is running well.

There are reports that some spot tonnes are on offer out of the Baltic this week, with some sources suggesting that suppliers are looking to achieve $360/t fob or over, but no new business was concluded at this level.

TurkeyAmeropa has sold 8,400t to Eti Bakir for delivery to Samsun on the Gas Grouper this week. The cargo is understood to

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Disclaimer: Argus depicts geo-political borders as defined by the United Nations Geospatial Information Section. For more information visit http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/map/profile/world.pdf

Middle east and africa

saudi arabiaMa’aden is loading the Touraine at Ras al-Khair this week for delivery to South Korea for Lotte Fine Chemical.

QatarMuntajat this week reports that its latest netback on ship-ments to India are $355/t fob Mesaieed. Production at Qafco 4 went down for four days this week but the plant is running normally again according to latest reports.

JordanJPMC is scheduled to receive a cargo from Trammo on the

Gas Utopia in early-October. The vessel loaded from Gemlik, Turkey earlier this week but is delayed near Dardanelles currently.

tunisiaGCT will receive around 9-10,000t from Ameropa in early-October on the Gas Grouper. The Tunisian producer is in the process of revamping its AN plant currently and is importing ammonia for DAP production purposes only. Once the AN revamp is complete the producer will require 23,000t every 5-6 weeks.

MoroccoOCP will discharge around 75,000t at Jorf Lasfar in the first

the aMMonia world this week

Us: october tampa contract settles $25/t higher on the

month at $355/t cfr

trinidad: Point lisas export line up for september reaches

302,000t

south korea: namhae has shortlisted 4-5 suppliers for its 560,000t 2019 contract. awards could be made next

week.

indonesia: Petronas sells cargo for Bontang loading in

2h october to Japan

turkey: Vessel delays at turkish straits due to introduction of new

shipping fees

india: fact awards latest tender for november

shipments at $393/t cfr and $388/t cfr

ammonia freightloading destination tonnage rate ($/t)

low high

Yuzhny NW Europe 23 46 58

Yuzhny Morocco 23 37 46

Ras al Khair South Korea 23 57 68

Ras al Khair WC India 23 25 32

Ras al Khair EC India 23 35 43

Point Lisas East Asia 23 87 98

Point Lisas US Gulf 23 37 47

Point Lisas NW Europe 23 44 56

Bontang East Asia 23 32 48

have been priced at the same level as Ameropa’s last sale to Petkim which is being delivered on the same vessel and is estimated to net back to a price of around $340/t fob Yuzhny.

Demand from Turkey remains fairly slow otherwise this week, with only Toros, Petkim and Eti Bakir actively import-ing.

On the export side, Trammo loaded a full cargo on the Gas Utopia from Gemlik on 23 September. The ship is destined for Jordan but is delayed near Dardenelles currently.

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IndIan subcontInent

IndiaFACT awarded its latest tender to Trammo today for two November 7,500t cargoes. The first cargo was awarded at $393/t cfr for delivery on 4-8 November, and the second cargo was priced at $388/t cfr for 17-21 November shipment.

CIFC offered Iranian ammonia for the 17-21 November cargo but the price was over $400/t cfr.

Smartchem (Deepak) closed an inquiry for 21,000t of am-monia for delivery by 15 January at JNPT port. The buyer received offers from four traders, is still negotiating with two sellers.

Indian ammonia imports september/october 2018supplier buyer Vessel Volume (t) Loading port arrival discharging port Price

April 221,889

May 191,988

June 210,221

July 266,432

August 177,132

September

Trammo FACT Trammo Dietlin 8,125 Ain Sokhna 2-Sep Cochin 380

Muntajat CIL ALmarona 2,150 Mesaieed 2-Sep Kakinada 382

Muntajat PPL Navigator Nova 10,000 Mesaieed 3-Sep Paradip 352

CIFC PPL Gas Quantum 16,053 Bontang 4-Sep Paradip Formula

CIFC CIL Gas Quantum 7,000 Bontang 7-Sep Vizag 354

Muntajat IRC Agro Almarona 5,300 Mesaieed 6-Sep Haldia Formula

IPCC DFCL Senna Princess 11,000 Assaluyeh 7-Sep JNPT Formula

Trammo IFFCO Gas Venus 25,281 Ain Sokhna 7-Sep Paradip 370

Ma'aden CIL Viking River 2,000 Ras al Khair 8-Sep Vizag Formula

Ma'aden CIL Viking River 20,998 Ras al Khair 9-Sep Kakinada Formula

CIFC DFCL Standorf 3,800 BIK 9-Sep JNPT Formula

IPCC IFFCO Senna Princess 4,100 Assaluyeh 10-Sep Kandla 355

CIFC FACT Gas Line 7,501 Assaluyeh 11-Sep Cochin 335

Muntajat ZIL Al Majedah 2,489 Mesaieed 11-Sep Goa 380

Muntajat MCFL Al Majedah 5,500 Mesaieed 12-Sep Mangalore 380

Muntajat Greenstar Al Majedah 7,000 Mesaieed 14-Sep Tuticorin Formula

IPCC DFCL Senna Princess 11,000 Assaluyeh 17-Sep JNPT Formula

CIFC PPL Standorf 10,000 BIK 17-Sep Paradip low 340s

CIFC FACT Standorf 7,200 BIK 22-Sep Cochin 376

Muntajat Hindalco Navigator Nova 4,000 Mesaieed 19-Sep Dahej Formula

Muntajat MCFL Navigator Nova 4,000 Mesaieed 21-Sep Mangalore 380

CIFC IFFCO Leo Sunrise 15,000 Bontang 21-Sep Kandla 365

CIFC CIL Gas Cat 7,507 BIK 21-Sep Vizag 360

CIFC CIL Gas Cat 5,507 BIK 22-Sep Kakinada 360

Sabic DFCL Al Barrah 12,000 Al Jubail 24-Sep JNPT 385

Sabic GSFC Al Barrah 11,000 Al Jubail 26-Sep Sikka Formula

Muntajat IRC Agro Navigator Nova 7,500 Mesaieed 25-Sep Haldia Formula

Muntajat ZIL Almarona 4,000 Mesaieed 26-Sep Goa Formula

Muntajat Greenstar Almarona 7,000 Mesaieed 28-Sep Tuticorin Formula

October

Ameropa IFFCO Clipper Mars 39,972 Yuzhny 3-Oct Paradip 364

Mitsui KIT/IFFCO Seashine 15,000 Ras al Khair mid Oct Kandla

Indian import data is available to Argus subscribers here

week of October across three shipments – the Clipper Odin, the Navigator Jorf and the Kaprijke. Monthly imports for September reached 102,000t.

algeriaSorfert is offering ammonia for October loading at $400/t fob. The previous spot deal from the producer was agreed at $352/t fob to Trammo for 30,000t across two 2H September shipments. The Trammo Paris is expected to begin loading at Bethioua imminently but there could be a delay to the load-ing of the second cargo because of the vessels being held currently at the Turkish Straits.


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AsiA PAcific

MalaysiaPetronas has sold a cargo to Mitsui for delivery to Japan. The cargo has been priced on a formula-basis, and will load on the Navigator Glory in Bontang in the second-half of October.

Petronas has planned two shipments to Thailand under long-term contract, and a cargo to China in addition to the spot sale.

indonesiaTrammo is currently loading a cargo from Bontang which will deliver to India.KPI has planned three shipments during October, one to India, one to China and a small parcel to be delivered to Vietnam.

The Leo Sunrise will arrive in Bontang on 3 October to load a cargo and will likely deliver it to India.

The PAU plant is running well but still in commissioning phase. Lotte Fine Chemical (LFC) loaded 37,000t on the Po-lar from the plant this week and Mitsubishi expects to load the next vessel from the plant during 1H October although no firm nomination has been made.

JapanThere are unconfirmed reports of production issues at the Mitsui Chemicals plant in western Japan which resulted in some prompt ammonia import demand from Japanese buy-ers this week. Mitsui is reported to have sold a small spot cargo of around 3,000t to one Japanese buyer at a price

rumoured to be at or above $425/t cfr but no details were confirmed by press time.

south KoreaPrices were heard in the $360-390/t cfr range this week, with one buyer reporting contract shipments in the $375-390/t cfr range.

Namhae Chemical Corporation (NCC) has shortlisted four to five suppliers for the final round of negotiations for the 2019 annual supply contract. An award is expected next week for 560,000t long-term contract.

NCC will have a 30-day maintenance shutdown at most of its production lines starting in early-October.

The final shipment before the producer's turnaround commences will be a 13,000t cargo on the Clipper Neptun from Koch. NCC expects to start importing ammonia again in early-November with a 25,000t cargo from Yara scheduled.

TaiwanContract prices are reported in the $370-380/t cfr range this week.

CPDC will receive shipments via the Clipper Neptun and the Gas Line in October.

Formosa will only begin negotiations for the annual supply contract in early 2019 as the current 150,000t/yr contract runs until end-April.

chinaGemoil imported 38,000t of ammonia into Zhanjiang in Sep-tember. The buyer has lined up a 15,000t for arrival during October and another 23,000t cargo for arrival during the second-half of November.

india, far East and Middle East price $/t

- hh

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

7 Jun 5 Jul 2 Aug 30 Aug 27 Sep

India cfr Far east cfr Middle East fob

The following prices were noted for contract shipments: � The Navigator Nova, carrying 4,000t from Mesaieed to

MCFL was priced around $380.03/t cfr

� Leo Sunrise delivered 15,000t to IFFCO at $365/t cfr. The cargo loaded in Bontang and was delivered by CIFC

� CIFC's Gas Cat, carrying 13,000t for Coromandel, was priced just below $360/t cfr

� The al Barrah delivered 12,000t to Smartchem (Deepak) at $385/t cfr on 24 September. The cargo loaded at Al Jubail

� IFFCO will receive a 40,000t cargo from Ameropa ex-Yuzhny, priced at $364/t cfr

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Trinidad vessel line up September/October

Load month Vessel Discharge Arrived/ETA Trader Volumes

September 376

Hellas Apollo Lázaro Cárdenas, Mexico 12-Sep Koch 17

Marte Cayo Moa Grande, Cuba 7-Sep Yara 3

Cambridge Mejillones, Chile 16-Sep Trammo 25

Yara Aesa Tampa, Florida 13-Sep Yara 25

Yara Freya Santos, Brazil 30-Sep Yara 25

Hellas Eagle Beaumont, Texas 17-Sep Koch 40

Clipper Sky Tampa, US 18-Sep Koch 40

Navigator Jorf Jorf Lasfar, Morocco OCP 25

Sombeke Jorf Lasfar, Morocco 26-Sep Nutrien 26

Libramont TBD Nutrien 25

Kaprijke Jorf Lasfar, Morocco 3-Oct Nutrien 23

Yara Aesa Santos, Brazil Yara 25

Marte Cayo Moa Grande, Cuba Yara 3

October 144

Marola Yara 25

Yara Freya Yara 25

Marte Yara 3

Clipper Orion Koch 40

Trammo Cornell Trammo 26

Cambridge Trammo 25

Trinidad line up data is available to Argus subscribers here

AmEriCAS

US domesticThe Tampa contract for October vessels settled rose by $25/t from September to $355/t cfr, setting the highest

China DomesticIn Shandong, prices are above Yn3,470/t ex-works. In Nanjing port, a trader is offering at Yn3,700/t ex-warehouse.

A congested highway will impact the domestic ammonia shipments during the Golden Week holidays in China next week.

AustraliaAustralia's Queensland state is fast-tracking an energy and ammonia project that plans to use 1.5mn t/yr of thermal coal from the Callide mine that is currently exported to Asian customers.

The Gladstone energy and ammonia project will use 1.5mn t/yr of thermal coal from the 10mn t/yr Callide coal mine. It will produce up to 300,000 t/yr of ammonia and 6-8PJ (160mn-214mn m³) of synthetic natural gas.

See News section for full story.

value since January. The settlement furthers a firm trend that has prevailed in the global ammonia market through the third quarter, and now into the fourth quarter: tight spot availability coupled with consistent demand.

The settlement did not trickle into the barge market im-mediately this week, leaving barge prices flat at $300-311/st fob Nola. The market was untested this week, but market participants indicated prices could correct in line with Tampa in the near-term.

TrinidadLoading prices from the Caribbean/US Gulf edged higher to $305-316/t fob this week. Spot availability remains thin in Trinidad as producers are only able to cover contractual shipments. Nutrien loaded the Kaprijke this week for OCP, the third cargo it has loaded this month for the Moroccan buyer.

Argus estimates about 302,000t of ammonia was exported from the island in September, with about 74,000t dedicated to Morocco – up by about 9,000t from August, according to vessel tracking data. Preliminary estimates for first-half October shipment reached 144,000t.


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NEWS AND ANALYSIS

OPZ awards gas supply tenderUkrainian fertilizer producer Odessa Port Plant (OPZ) has awarded its latest gas third-party processing tender to ETFX UK. Contract terms on gas supplies will be discussed shortly, but a tentative date for the restart of the plant is expected to be the end of October or early November. Continue reading >>

Weak rupee to weigh on Indian DAP demandFertilizer importers to India have had to contend with a weakening local currency in the third quarter — typically the monsoon season in India — below-par rainfall and the prospect of increasing domestic prices.Continue reading >>

India starts work on Talcher projectIndia started work on its first coal gasification project in Odisha state, which will produce urea and synthetic gas from coal and petroleum coke. The 130bn rupees ($1.8bn) venture is expected to boost demand for these fuels and reduce the need for imported LNG.Continue reading >>

Australia fast-tracks coal-to-ammonia/gas plantAustralia's Queensland state is fast-tracking an energy and ammonia project that plans to use 1.5mn t/yr of thermal coal from the Callide mine that is currently exported to Asian customers.Continue reading >>

Spot Sales Selection – 27 September 2018Origin Seller Buyer Destination ‘000t $pt bulk Shipment

TBN Trammo FACT India 8 393 cfr Early November

TBN Trammo FACT India 8 388 cfr Mid November

Indonesia Petrokimia Gresik CJ Indonesia Indonesia 6 403 cfr October

Algeria Sorfert Trammo TBC 30 352 fob eq 2H September

Egypt EBIC Parna Raya TBC 23 360 fob eq 2H September

Black Sea Ameropa Petkim Turkey 6 335 fob eq 2H September

Saudi Arabia Sabic Deepak West coast India 12 365 fob End-Sep

Trinidad BASF Yara Finland 25 September

Yuzhny Ameropa OCI Rotterdam 11 350 fob September

TBN CIFC FACT India 8 399 cfr Late-October

Indonesia Trammo FACT India 8 408 cfr 6-10 October

Malaysia Petronas Yara Australia 23 TBC August

Malaysia Petronas Philippines/Japan 12 360 fob August

TBN CIFC FACT India 8 376.5 cfr September

Algeria Sorfert Trader TBN 30 310 fob August/September

Spot sales data is available to Argus subscribers here

OCP signs R&D deal with Hubei ForbonMoroccan state-owned phosphates fertilizer producer OCP has signed an initial agreement with Chinese fertilizer manu-facturer Hubei Forbon on further collaboration.Continue reading >>

Management changes at EurochemSwiss-based fertilizer producer EuroChem Group AG has announced that its chief executive officer Dmitry Strashnov has resigned from the Group with immediate effect citing personal reasons. Continue reading >>

Polish fertilizer output rises in AugustPoland's fertilizer production rose in both year-on-year and month-on-month terms in August, following a slump in July, data from national statistics agency GUS show.Continue reading >>

Argus Ammonia Methodology

Argus uses a precise and transparent methodology to assess prices in all the markets it covers. The latest version of the Argus Ammonia Methodology can be found at:www.argusmedia.com/methodology.

For a hard copy, please email [email protected], but please note that methodogies are updated frequently and for the latest version, you should visit the internet site.

LAST UPDATED: JANUARY 2017 The most up-to-date Argus Ammonia methodology is available on www.argusmedia.comM

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ARGUS AMMONIA

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Contents:Methodology overview 2Introduction 5Publication frequency and assessment timing 5General methodology 5Assessing price ranges 5Distressed trades and disruptions to trade 6Spot and formula pricing 6Units 6Lot and cargo sizes 6Products and specifications 6Price guide — how prices are defined 6

https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/1761202?keywords=OPZ

https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/1761382?keywords=fertilizer

https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/1759483

https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/1759807?keywords=OCP


https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/1759807?keywords=OCP

https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/1761132?keywords=management%20eurochem

https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/1760438

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Issue 18 - 39 | Thursday 27 September 2018

FUNDAMENTALS

Henry Hub prices to fi rmNear-term gas prices should receive a boost from low inventories and slower supply growth in the Permian basin. Henry Hub prices should average $3.30/mmBtu in the fourth quarter and $3.15/mmBtu in the 2019 fi rst quarter, according to a forecast from Morgan Stanley.

Prices at the US benchmark next year should average $2.90/mmBtu, despite another year of strong demand growth. "Even with Permian bottlenecks, associated gas growth remains strong while pipeline expansions will unlock more low-cost supply from the Marcellus," Morgan Stanley said.

Phosphates: Market realism prevailsA substantial fl urry of DAP sales into India and to a lesser extent Pakistan represents the realisation by both traders and producers alike that it is best to make sales now lest the rupee in India depreciate further or other sellers beat them to the deal. Further MRP hikes are unlikely now. Trad-ers have lost money having taking positions above $415/t fob China and liquidated. Likewise, Chinese producers have sold direct at $426-428/t cfr, which still presents a better netback relative to the domestic market and also eases the pressure on 500,000t of port inventories.

In total, India bought 360,000t of DAP this week while Pakistan took an estimated 130,000-180,000t DAP from Mo-rocco, Australia and China.

India looks on course to import 5.5mn t of DAP with 5mn t now booked. Most of the Pakistan major importers are still

Ammonia production costs

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

21 Sep 17 25 Jan 18 24 May 18 20 Sep 18225

250

275

300

325

350

375

Production cost based on Henry Hub, $/st (LHS)Production cost based on TTF, $/t (RHS)

in the hunt for DAP in the low/mid-$430s/t cfr despite provi-sional data showing inventories at end-August having risen to a substantial 620,000t at the end of August and projected to top 800,000t in September - higher than India.

Elsewhere, OCP is expected to sweep the board in Ethio-pia as expected. It faced minor competition from Russia and Saudi Arabia but competitive prices ensured it stands to take at least 625,000t of NPS/NPK business. The only concern is fi nancing but an award is still expected by the end of this week.

OCP was also a signifi cant seller in Pakistan, netting $407/t fob Jorf Lasfar which is a substantial decline on the last Argus assessment. This probably refl ects the paucity of demand west of Suez and limited further opportunities in the US.

West of Suez there was little business. Argentina took in small lots of fl oating 10-50 ex-China in the higher-$430s/t cfr but demand is subdued due to concerns over the country's export duties on agricultural commodities. Brazil bought another 10,000-15,000t of MAP in the mid/high-$450s/t cfr for October shipment, more or less in line with last week's prices.

In Indonesia and Iran, there were expressions of interest for TSP totalling over 150,000t for 4Q shipment. Brazilian TSP demand is, however on the wane seasonally.

Despite Australia, Europe and Ethiopia expected to absorb signifi cant tonnage in 4Q, the market still looks to be in surplus hence some downside is expected.

Indian urea tender to fuel rising pricesConfi rmation of the next Indian tender and a new clause that will exclude Iranian urea off ers set the hounds running on 27 September hunting for urea.

Exclusion of Iranian urea was the signal traders had been waiting for. It means that India will have to buy urea from a range of sources and will boost prices, especially for Middle East and Chinese product – the most competitive origins for India.

Middle East urea traded at $336/t fob on the paper market on Thursday, eclipsing a physical sale at $320/t fob on Mon-day, an indication of what is to come.

Direct sales of Iranian urea are likely to cease. India will have to fi nd about 2mn t of urea from other sources in Q4. With Chinese exports running at less than 150,000t/month until now, this will be challenging.

With a strong run up in prices foreseen, traders are mov-ing quickly to buy urea for October and will bid higher for November.

Europe and Brazil are entering their peak buying seasons. Some US import interest is emerging. Ethiopia is likely to award its tender for 550,000t in October.

Follow us on Twitter @ArgusMediaFertz for market insights from our editors.

Argus Ammonia Issue 18-39 | Thursday 27 September 2018

Fertilizer

Argus Ammonia is published by Argus Media group

illuminating the markets

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www.argusmedia.com/fertilizers EventsConsulting

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Argus Europe Fertilizer 2018 24 - 26 OctoberInterContinental Athenaeum, Athens, Greece

32nd Annual

700+ delegates

Secure your place at www.argusmedia.com/fertilizer-europe

Europe’s biggest fertilizer trade event!

Dr. Nikos Louizos Director INDAGRO

Jacob B. Hansen Director General Fertilizers Europe

Zhai Jidong Chief Operating Officer Kingenta Ecological Engineering

Grace Chilande Fertilizer Market Specialist| AfricaFertilizer.org Regional Coordinator IFDC

Erik van den Bergh Managing Director Van Iperen International

Host Sponsor

Gold Sponsors

BY

2018 Confirmed Speakers include:

* View the full agenda inside

Micronutrients Forum

Silver Sponsors

BIOM

HXANIA ΦΩΣΦOPIKΩN

ΛIΠAΣMATΩN & XHMIKΩN

PANTONE 300 C

BIOMHXANIA ΦΩΣΦOPIKΩN

ΛIΠAΣMATΩN & XHMIKΩN

PHOSPHORIC FERTILIZERS

INDUSTRY & CHEMICALS

PHOS

PHORIC FERTILIZERS

INDUSTRY & CHEMICALS

Bronze Sponsors Europe's dedicated Micronutrients Forum will take place on Wednesday 24 October. Hear the latest developments in this sector during a one day event which covers zinc, boron, iron, magnesium, chelates, foliar and water soluble products.

Platinum Sponsor

The fertility power

Argus Ammonia

Documents

Transcript of Argus Ammonia